Cost-effectiveness in diagnosis of stable angina patients: a decision-analytical modelling approach.

OBJECTIVE: Given recent data on published diagnostic accuracies, this study sought to determine the most cost-effective diagnostic strategy for detection of significant coronary artery disease (CAD) in stable angina patients using invasive coronary angiography (ICA) and fractional flow reserve (FFR) as the reference standard. METHODS: A probabilistic decision-analytical model was developed which modelled a cohort of patients with stable angina. We investigated 17 diagnostic strategies between standalone and combination of different imaging tests to establish a correct diagnosis of CAD, using no testing as the baseline reference. These tests included CT coronary angiography (CTCA), stress echocardiography, CT-based FFR, single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT), cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR), positron emission tomography, ICA, and ICA with FFR. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated as the additional cost per correct diagnosis. RESULTS: SPECT followed by CTCA and ICA-FFR is the most cost-effective strategy between a cost-effectiveness threshold (CET) value of £1000-£3000 per correct diagnosis. CMR followed by CTCA and ICA-FFR is cost-effective within a CET range of £3000-£17 000 per correct diagnosis. CMR and ICA-FFR is cost-effective within a CET range of £17 000-£24 000. ICA-FFR as first line is the most-cost effective if the CET value exceeds the £24 000 per correct diagnosis. Sensitivity analysis showed that direct ICA-FFR may be cost-effective in patients with a high pre-test probability of CAD. CONCLUSION: First-line testing with functional imaging is cost-effective at low to intermediate value of correct diagnosis in patients with low to intermediate risk of CAD. ICA is not cost effective although ICA-FFR may be at higher CET.

A Qualitative Study Exploring Patient, Family Carer and Healthcare Professionals' Direct Experiences and Barriers to Providing and Integrating Palliative Care for Advanced Head and Neck Cancer.

OBJECTIVES: To report on direct experiences from advanced head and neck cancer patients, family carers and healthcare professionals, and the barriers to integrating specialist palliative care. METHODS: Using a naturalistic, interpretative approach, within Northwest England, a purposive sample of adult head and neck cancer patients was selected. Their family carers were invited to participate. Healthcare professionals (representing head and neck surgery and specialist nursing; oncology; specialist palliative care; general practice and community nursing) were recruited. All participants underwent face-to-face or telephone interviews. A thematic approach, using a modified version of Colazzi's framework, was used to analyze the data. RESULTS: Seventeen interviews were conducted (9 patients, 4 joint with family carers and 8 healthcare professionals). Two main barriers were identified by healthcare professionals: "lack of consensus about timing of Specialist Palliative Care engagement" and "high stake decisions with uncertainty about treatment outcome." The main barrier identified by patients and family carers was "lack of preparedness when transitioning from curable to incurable disease." There were 2 overlapping themes from both groups: "uncertainty about meeting psychological needs" and "misconceptions of palliative care." CONCLUSIONS: Head and neck cancer has a less predictable disease trajectory, where complex decisions are made and treatment outcomes are less certain. Specific focus is needed to define the optimal way to initiate Specialist Palliative Care referrals which may differ from those used for the wider cancer population. Clearer ways to effectively communicate goals of care are required potentially involving collaboration between Specialist Palliative Care and the wider head and neck cancer team.

Empowering Better End-of-Life Dementia Care (EMBED-Care): A mixed methods protocol to achieve integrated person-centred care across settings.

OBJECTIVES: Globally, the number of people with dementia who have palliative care needs will increase fourfold over the next 40 years. The Empowering Better End-of-Life Dementia Care (EMBED-Care) Programme aims to deliver a step change in care through a large sequential study, spanning multiple work streams. METHODS: We will use mixed methods across settings where people with dementia live and die: their own homes, care homes, and hospitals. Beginning with policy syntheses and reviews of interventions, we will develop a conceptual framework and underpinning theory of change. We will use linked data sets to explore current service use, care transitions, and inequalities and predict future need for end-of-life dementia care. Longitudinal cohort studies of people with dementia (including young onset and prion dementias) and their carers will describe care transitions, quality of life, symptoms, formal and informal care provision, and costs. Data will be synthesised, underpinned by the Knowledge-to-Action Implementation Framework, to design a novel complex intervention to support assessment, decision making, and communication between patients, carers, and inter-professional teams. This will be feasibility and pilot tested in UK settings. Patient and public involvement and engagement, innovative work with artists, policymakers, and third sector organisations are embedded to drive impact. We will build research capacity and develop an international network for excellence in dementia palliative care. CONCLUSIONS: EMBED-Care will help us understand current and future need, develop novel cost-effective care innovations, build research capacity, and promote international collaborations in research and practice to ensure people live and die well with dementia.

Cost-comparison analysis of FIB-4, ELF and fibroscan in community pathways for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND: The identification of patients with advanced liver fibrosis secondary to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) remains challenging. Using non-invasive liver fibrosis tests (NILT) in primary care may permit earlier detection of patients with clinically significant disease for specialist review, and reduce unnecessary referral of patients with mild disease. We constructed an analytical model to assess the clinical and cost differentials of such strategies. METHODS: A probabilistic decisional model simulated a cohort of 1000 NAFLD patients over 1 year from a healthcare payer perspective. Simulations compared standard care (SC) (scenario 1) to: Scenario 2: FIB-4 for all patients followed by Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) test for patients with indeterminate FIB-4 results; Scenario 3: FIB-4 followed by fibroscan for indeterminate FIB-4; Scenario 4: ELF alone; and Scenario 5: fibroscan alone. Model estimates were derived from the published literature. The primary outcome was cost per case of advanced fibrosis detected. RESULTS: Introduction of NILT increased detection of advanced fibrosis over 1 year by 114, 118, 129 and 137% compared to SC in scenarios 2, 3, 4 and 5 respectively with reduction in unnecessary referrals by 85, 78, 71 and 42% respectively. The cost per case of advanced fibrosis (METAVIR ≥F3) detected was £25,543, £8932, £9083, £9487 and £10,351 in scenarios 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 respectively. Total budget spend was reduced by 25.2, 22.7, 15.1 and 4.0% in Scenarios 2, 3, 4 and 5 compared to £670 K at baseline. CONCLUSION: Our analyses suggest that the use of NILT in primary care can increases early detection of advanced liver fibrosis and reduce unnecessary referral of patients with mild disease and is cost efficient. Adopting a two-tier approach improves resource utilization.

Manualised cognitive-behavioural therapy in treating depression in advanced cancer: the CanTalk RCT.

BACKGROUND: With a prevalence of up to 16.5%, depression is one of the commonest mental disorders in people with advanced cancer. Depression reduces the quality of life (QoL) of patients and those close to them. The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines recommend treating depression using antidepressants and/or psychological treatments, such as cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT). Although CBT has been shown to be effective for people with cancer, it is unclear whether or not this is the case for people with advanced cancer and depression. OBJECTIVES: To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of treatment as usual (TAU) plus manualised CBT, delivered by high-level Improving Access to Psychological Therapy (IAPT) practitioners, versus TAU for people with advanced cancer and depression, measured at baseline, 6, 12, 18 and 24 weeks. DESIGN: Parallel-group, single-blind, randomised trial, stratified by whether or not an antidepressant was prescribed, comparing TAU with CBT plus TAU. SETTING: Recruitment took place in oncology, hospice and primary care settings. CBT was delivered in IAPT centres or/and over the telephone. PARTICIPANTS: Patients (N = 230; n = 115 in each arm) with advanced cancer and depression. Inclusion criteria were a diagnosis of cancer not amenable to cure, a DSM-IV (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition) diagnosis of depressive disorder using the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview, a sufficient understanding of English and eligibility for treatment in an IAPT centre. Exclusion criteria were an estimated survival of < 4 months, being at high risk of suicide and receiving, or having received in the last 2 months, a psychological intervention recommended by NICE for treating depression. INTERVENTIONS: (1) Up to 12 sessions of manualised individual CBT plus TAU delivered within 16 weeks and (2) TAU. OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was the Beck Depression Inventory, version 2 (BDI-II) score at 6, 12, 18 and 24 weeks. Secondary outcomes included scores on the Patient Health Questionnaire-9, the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status, satisfaction with care, EuroQol-5 Dimensions and the Client Services Receipt Inventory, at 12 and 24 weeks. RESULTS: A total of 80% of treatments (185/230) were analysed: CBT (plus TAU) (n = 93) and TAU (n = 92) for the BDI-II score at all time points using multilevel modelling. CBT was not clinically effective [treatment effect -0.84, 95% confidence interval (CI) -2.76 to 1.08; p = 0.39], nor was there any benefit for other measures. A subgroup analysis of those widowed, divorced or separated showed a significant effect of CBT on the BDI-II (treatment effect -7.21, 95% CI -11.15 to -3.28; p < 0.001). Economic analysis revealed that CBT has higher costs but produces more quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) than TAU. The mean service costs for participants (not including the costs of the interventions) were similar across the two groups. There were no differences in EQ-5D median scores at baseline, nor was there any advantage of CBT over TAU at 12 weeks or 24 weeks. There was no statistically significant improvement in QALYs at 24 weeks. LIMITATIONS: Although all participants satisfied a diagnosis of depression, for some, this was of less than moderate severity at baseline, which could have attenuated treatment effects. Only 64% (74/115) took up CBT, comparable to the general uptake through IAPT. CONCLUSIONS: Cognitive-behavioural therapy (delivered through IAPT) does not achieve any clinical benefit in advanced cancer patients with depression. The benefit of CBT for people widowed, divorced or separated is consistent with other studies. Alternative treatment options for people with advanced cancer warrant evaluation. Screening and referring those widowed, divorced or separated to IAPT for CBT may be beneficial. Whether or not improvements in this subgroup are due to non-specific therapeutic effects needs investigation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN07622709. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 23, No. 19. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

There are high rates of depression in people with advanced (cannot-be-cured) cancer. Depression worsens a person's quality of life (QoL), may become a burden for carers and may prolong a patient's hospital stay. Cognitive­behavioural therapy (CBT) challenges unhelpful thinking and ways of doing things to help improve mood. CBT is effective for treating depression, but it is unclear if it works for depression in advanced cancer patients. Advanced cancer patients with depression were entered into a research trial to see if the addition of CBT to usual care was better at improving depressive symptoms than usual care alone. We also wished to evaluate whether or not CBT helped to save costs. We enrolled 230 participants from hospital clinics, general practitioner (GP) surgeries and the Marie Curie Hospice, Hampstead. A computer program randomly allocated people to one of two groups: (1) CBT plus usual care or (2) usual care alone. Everyone received usual care from their GPs and oncology teams. Patients who were offered the addition of CBT received up to 12 1-hour sessions delivered through a community service called Improving Access to Psychological Therapies. We measured depression using a questionnaire called the Beck Depression Inventory, version 2 collected at the start of, and at 6, 12, 18 and 24 weeks into, the trial. We also collected other measures, including those relating to health, QoL and resource costs at various times. Overall, there was no improvement in symptoms of low mood or cost savings with the addition of CBT to usual care compared with usual care alone. This means that CBT does not benefit people with depression and advanced cancer, and should not be routinely offered. However, those widowed, divorced or separated appeared to benefit from CBT over and above their usual care. CBT targeted to these people may be helpful and may ensure that resources are allocated in the best way.

Acceptance and commitment therapy for adults with advanced cancer (CanACT): A feasibility randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To understand the feasibility of recruiting people with advanced cancer into a randomised controlled trial of acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT) vs a standardised talking control (TC) and delivering ACT to this population; to explore the acceptability of outcome measures and generate normative data. METHODS: This was a feasibility two-arm randomised controlled trial. Participants were attendees with advanced cancer at one of three hospice-based day-therapy units in London, United Kingdom, who demonstrated low scores on the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapies-General (FACT-G). The primary end point was 3 months. RESULTS: The recruitment target was 54 participants; 42 people were recruited and randomised to up to eight individual sessions of ACT (n = 20) or TC (n = 22). Eighteen out of 42 (43%) of participants completed the primary outcome at 3 months, and at least one follow-up was available in 30/42 (71%) participants. An exploratory analysis revealed a non-significant adjusted mean difference after 3 months in the main outcome FACT-G of -3.41 (CI = -18.61-11.79) with TC having better functioning. Over 6 months, the adjusted mean difference between trial arms was 2.25 (CI = -6.03-10.52) in favour of ACT. CONCLUSIONS: It is feasible to recruit people with advanced cancer in a trial of ACT versus TC. Future research should test the effectiveness of ACT in a fully powered trial.

Living and dying with advanced dementia: A prospective cohort study of symptoms, service use and care at the end of life.

BACKGROUND: Increasing number of people are dying with advanced dementia. Comfort and quality of life are key goals of care. AIMS: To describe (1) physical and psychological symptoms, (2) health and social care service utilisation and (3) care at end of life in people with advanced dementia. DESIGN: 9-month prospective cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Greater London, England, people with advanced dementia (Functional Assessment Staging Scale 6e and above) from 14 nursing homes or their own homes. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: At study entry and monthly: prescriptions, Charlson Comorbidity Index, pressure sore risk/severity (Waterlow Scale/Stirling Scale, respectively), acute medical events, pain (Pain Assessment in Advanced Dementia), neuropsychiatric symptoms (Neuropsychiatric Inventory), quality of life (Quality of Life in Late-Stage Dementia Scale), resource use (Resource Utilization in Dementia Questionnaire and Client Services Receipt Inventory), presence/type of advance care plans, interventions, mortality, place of death and comfort (Symptom Management at End of Life in Dementia Scale). RESULTS: Of 159 potential participants, 85 were recruited (62% alive at end of follow-up). Pain (11% at rest, 61% on movement) and significant agitation (54%) were common and persistent. Aspiration, dyspnoea, septicaemia and pneumonia were more frequent in those who died. In total, 76% had 'do not resuscitate' statements, less than 40% advance care plans. Most received primary care visits, there was little input from geriatrics or mental health but contact with emergency paramedics was common. CONCLUSION: People with advanced dementia lived with distressing symptoms. Service provision was not tailored to their needs. Longitudinal multidisciplinary input could optimise symptom control and quality of life.

Implementing the compassion intervention, a model for integrated care for people with advanced dementia towards the end of life in nursing homes: a naturalistic feasibility study.

BACKGROUND: Many people with dementia die in nursing homes, but quality of care may be suboptimal. We developed the theory-driven 'Compassion Intervention' to enhance end-of-life care in advanced dementia. OBJECTIVES: To (1) understand how the Intervention operated in nursing homes in different health economies; (2) collect preliminary outcome data and costs of an interdisciplinary care leader (ICL) to facilitate the Intervention; (3) check the Intervention caused no harm. DESIGN: A naturalistic feasibility study of Intervention implementation for 6 months. SETTINGS: Two nursing homes in northern London, UK. PARTICIPANTS: Thirty residents with advanced dementia were assessed of whom nine were recruited for data collection; four of these residents' family members were interviewed. Twenty-eight nursing home and external healthcare professionals participated in interviews at 7 (n=19), 11 (n=19) and 15 months (n=10). INTERVENTION: An ICL led two core Intervention components: (1) integrated, interdisciplinary assessment and care; (2) education and support for paid and family carers. DATA COLLECTED: Process and outcome data were collected. Symptoms were recorded monthly for recruited residents. Semistructured interviews were conducted at 7, 11 and 15 months with nursing home staff and external healthcare professionals and at 7 months with family carers. ICL hours were costed using Department of Health and Health Education England tariffs. RESULTS: Contextual differences were identified between sites: nursing home 2 had lower involvement with external healthcare services. Core components were implemented at both sites but multidisciplinary meetings were only established in nursing home 1. The Intervention prompted improvements in advance care planning, pain management and person-centred care; we observed no harm. Six-month ICL costs were £18 255. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation was feasible to differing degrees across sites, dependent on context. Our data inform future testing to identify the Intervention's effectiveness in improving end-of-life care in advanced dementia. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov:NCT02840318: Results.

Experiences of end of life amongst family carers of people with advanced dementia: longitudinal cohort study with mixed methods.

BACKGROUND: Many studies have examined the mental health of carers of people with dementia. Few have examined their experiences in the advanced stages of disease and into bereavement. We aimed to understand the experiences of carers during advanced dementia exploring the links between mental health and experiences of end of life care. METHODS: Mixed methods longitudinal cohort study. Thirty-five family carers of people with advanced dementia (6 at home, 29 in care homes) were recruited and assessed monthly for up to nine months or until the person with dementia died, then at two and seven months into bereavement. Assessments included: Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, Short Form 12 health-related quality of life, 22-item Zarit Burden Interview, Brief Coping Orientation to Problems Experienced, Inventory of Complicated Grief and Satisfaction with Care at End of Life in Dementia. Subsequently, 12 carers (34%) were bereaved and 12 undertook a qualitative interview two months after death; these data were analysed thematically. We analysed quantitative and qualitative data independently and then merged findings at the point of interpretation. RESULTS: At study entry psychological distress was high; 26% reached caseness for depression and 41% for anxiety and median complicated grief scores were 27 [IQR 22-37] indicating that on average 11 of the 16 grief symptoms occurred at least monthly. Physical health reflected population norms (mean = 50) and median burden scores were 17 [IQR 9-30]. Three qualitative themes were identified: the importance of relationships with care services, understanding of the progression of dementia, and emotional responses to advanced dementia. An overarching theme tying these together was the carer's ability to control and influence end of life care. CONCLUSIONS: While carers report high levels of psychological distress during advanced dementia, the experience of end of life care in dementia may be amenable to change with the provision of sensitive and timely information about the natural progression of dementia. Regular health status updates and end of life discussions can help families understand dementia progression and prepare for end of life. The extent to which our findings reflect practice across the UK or internationally warrants further investigation.

The clinical and cost effectiveness of cognitive behavioural therapy plus treatment as usual for the treatment of depression in advanced cancer (CanTalk): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of depressive disorder in adults with advanced cancer is around 20 %. Although cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) is recommended for depression and may be beneficial in depressed people with cancer, its use for depression in those with advanced disease for whom cure is not likely has not been explored. METHODS: People aged 18 years and above with advanced cancer attending General Practitioner (GP), oncology or hospice outpatients from centres across England will be screened to establish a DSM-IV diagnosis of depression. Self-referral is also accepted. Eligible consenters will be randomised to a single blind, multicentre, randomised controlled trial of the addition to treatment as usual (TAU) of up to 12 one-hour weekly sessions of manualised CBT versus TAU alone. Sessions are delivered in primary care through Increasing Access to Psychological Care (IAPT) service, and the manual includes a focus on issues for people approaching the end of life. The main outcome is the Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II). Subsidiary measures include the Patient Health Questionnaire, quality of life measure EQ-5D, Satisfaction with care, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group-Performance Status and a modified Client Service Receipt Inventory. At 90 % power, we require 240 participants to enter the trial. Data will be analysed using multi-level (hierarchical) models for data collected at baseline, 6, 12, 18 and 24 weeks. Cost effectiveness analysis will incorporate costs related to the intervention to compare overall healthcare costs and QALYs between the treatment arms. We will conduct qualitative interviews after final follow-up on patient and therapist perspectives of the therapy. DISCUSSION: This trial will provide data on the clinical and cost effectiveness of CBT for people with advanced cancer and depression. We shall gain an understanding of the feasibility of delivering care to this group through IAPT. Our findings will provide evidence for policy-makers, commissioners and clinicians in cancer and palliative care, and in the community. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Controlled Trials ISRCTN07622709 , registered 15 July 2011.

Acceptance and commitment therapy for adults with advanced cancer (CanACT): study protocol for a feasibility randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: One-third of people with cancer experience psychological distress and may suppress distressing thoughts, emotions, and concerns, leading to further problems. Conventional psychological treatments reduce distress by problem solving, but in advanced cancer, when ill health is progressive and death may be approaching, physical and psychological difficulties are complex and have no simple solutions. Acceptance and Commitment Therapy encourages acknowledgement and acceptance of mental experiences, increasing people's ability to work with problems that cannot be solved. Previous pilot work in advanced cancer confirms that distress can be associated with an avoidance of experiencing uncomfortable thoughts and emotions. METHODS/DESIGN: This feasibility randomised controlled trial of Acceptance Commitment Therapy aims to establish parameters for a larger trial. Fifty-four participants with advanced cancer will be randomly allocated to up to eight sessions (each 1 hour) of Acceptance Commitment Therapy or a talking control. Participants will be recruited from those attending outpatient services and hospice day care at three specialist palliative care units in North and East London, United Kingdom. The primary outcome is a measure of functioning in four areas of life (physical, social/family, emotional, and general activity) using the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapies--General questionnaire at 3 months after randomisation. Secondary outcomes are (i) acceptance using the Acceptance and Action Questionnaire; (ii) psychological distress using the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale; (iii) physical functioning using a timed walk and sit-to-stand test; and (iv) quality of life measures including the Euroqol-5 Dimensions and ICECAP Supportive Care measures. Qualitative data will be collected at 3 months to explore the participants' experiences of the trial and therapy. Data will be collected on the costs of care. DISCUSSION: Data generated on the recruitment, retention, and experience of the interventions and the usefulness of the outcome measures will inform the adaptations required and whether changes in function are consistent with existing data when planning for a sufficiently powered randomised controlled trial. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN13841211 (registered 22 July 2015).

Development of a model for integrated care at the end of life in advanced dementia: A whole systems UK-wide approach.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of dementia is rising worldwide and many people will die with the disease. Symptoms towards the end of life may be inadequately managed and informal and professional carers poorly supported. There are few evidence-based interventions to improve end-of-life care in advanced dementia. AIM: To develop an integrated, whole systems, evidence-based intervention that is pragmatic and feasible to improve end-of-life care for people with advanced dementia and support those close to them. DESIGN: A realist-based approach in which qualitative and quantitative data assisted the development of statements. These were incorporated into the RAND/UCLA appropriateness method to achieve consensus on intervention components. Components were mapped to underlying theory of whole systems change and the intervention described in a detailed manual. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: Data were collected from people with dementia, carers and health and social care professionals in England, from expert opinion and existing literature. Professional stakeholders in all four countries of the United Kingdom contributed to the RAND/UCLA appropriateness method process. RESULTS: A total of 29 statements were agreed and mapped to individual, group, organisational and economic/political levels of healthcare systems. The resulting main intervention components are as follows: (1) influencing local service organisation through facilitation of integrated multi-disciplinary care, (2) providing training and support for formal and informal carers and (3) influencing local healthcare commissioning and priorities of service providers. CONCLUSION: Use of in-depth data, consensus methods and theoretical understanding of the intervention components produced an evidence-based intervention for further testing in end-of-life care in advanced dementia.

A protocol for an exploratory phase I mixed-methods study of enhanced integrated care for care home residents with advanced dementia: the Compassion Intervention.

INTRODUCTION: In the UK approximately 700,000 people are living with, and a third of people aged over 65 will die with, dementia. People with dementia may receive poor quality care towards the end of life. We applied a realist approach and used mixed methods to develop a complex intervention to improve care for people with advanced dementia and their family carers. Consensus on intervention content was achieved using the RAND UCLA appropriateness method and mapped to sociological theories of process and impact. Core components are: (1) facilitation of integrated care, (2) education, training and support, (3) investment from commissioners and care providers. We present the protocol for an exploratory phase I study to implement components 1 and 2 in order to understand how the intervention operates in practice and to assess feasibility and acceptability. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: An 'Interdisciplinary Care Leader (ICL)' will work within two care homes, alongside staff and associated professionals to facilitate service integration, encourage structured needs assessment, develop the use of personal and advance care plans and support staff training. We will use qualitative and quantitative methods to collect data for a range of outcome and process measures to detect effects on individual residents, family carers, care home staff, the intervention team, the interdisciplinary team and wider systems. Analysis will include descriptive statistics summarising process and care home level data, individual demographic and clinical characteristics and data on symptom burden, clinical events and quality of care. Qualitative data will be explored using thematic analysis. Findings will inform a future phase II trial. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval was granted (REC reference 14/LO/0370). We shall publish findings at conferences, in peer-reviewed journals, on the Marie Curie Cancer Care website and prepare reports for dissemination by organisations involved with end-of-life care and dementia.

A model of cardiovascular disease giving a plausible mechanism for the effect of fractionated low-dose ionizing radiation exposure.

Atherosclerosis is the main cause of coronary heart disease and stroke, the two major causes of death in developed society. There is emerging evidence of excess risk of cardiovascular disease at low radiation doses in various occupationally exposed groups receiving small daily radiation doses. Assuming that they are causal, the mechanisms for effects of chronic fractionated radiation exposures on cardiovascular disease are unclear. We outline a spatial reaction-diffusion model for atherosclerosis and perform stability analysis, based wherever possible on human data. We show that a predicted consequence of multiple small radiation doses is to cause mean chemo-attractant (MCP-1) concentration to increase linearly with cumulative dose. The main driver for the increase in MCP-1 is monocyte death, and consequent reduction in MCP-1 degradation. The radiation-induced risks predicted by the model are quantitatively consistent with those observed in a number of occupationally-exposed groups. The changes in equilibrium MCP-1 concentrations with low density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration are also consistent with experimental and epidemiologic data. This proposed mechanism would be experimentally testable. If true, it also has substantive implications for radiological protection, which at present does not take cardiovascular disease into account. The Japanese A-bomb survivor data implies that cardiovascular disease and cancer mortality contribute similarly to radiogenic risk. The major uncertainty in assessing the low-dose risk of cardiovascular disease is the shape of the dose response relationship, which is unclear in the Japanese data. The analysis of the present paper suggests that linear extrapolation would be appropriate for this endpoint.