COVID-19 vaccine acceptance in the general population and under-resourced communities from high-income countries: realist review.

OBJECTIVE: To compare vaccination willingness before rollout and 1 year post-rollout uptake among the general population and under-resourced communities in high-income countries. DESIGN: A realist review. DATA SOURCES: Embase, PubMed, Dimensions ai and Google Scholar. SETTING: High-income countries. DEFINITIONS: We defined vaccination willingness as the proportion of participants willing or intending to receive vaccines prior to availability. We defined vaccine uptake as the real proportion of the population with complete vaccination as reported by each country until November 2021. RESULTS: We included data from 62 studies and 18 high-income countries. For studies conducted among general populations, the proportion of vaccination willingness was 67% (95% CI 62% to 72%). In real-world settings, the overall proportion of vaccine uptake among those countries was 73% (95% CI 69% to 76%). 17 studies reported pre-rollout willingness for under-resourced communities. The summary proportion of vaccination willingness from studies reporting results among people from under-resourced communities was 52% (95% CI 0.46% to 0.57%). Real-world evidence about vaccine uptake after rollout among under-resourced communities was limited. CONCLUSION: Our review emphasises the importance of realist reviews for assessing vaccine acceptance. Limited real-world evidence about vaccine uptake among under-resourced communities in high-income countries is a call to context-specific actions and reporting.

Outcomes of care during the last month of life: a systematic review to inform the development of a core outcome set.

BACKGROUND: To date, there is a lack of standardization and consensus on which outcomes are central to assess the care provided to patients in the last month of life. Therefore, we aimed to conduct a systematic review to identify relevant outcomes to inform the development of a core outcome set for the best care for the dying person. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of outcomes reported in the scientific literature about the care for the dying person in the last month of life. We searched for peer-reviewed studies published before February 2022 in four electronic databases. To categorise the outcomes, we employed the taxonomy developed by the "Core Outcome Measures in Effectiveness Trials" collaboration. RESULTS: Out of the 2,933 articles retrieved, 619 were included for analyses. The majority of studies (71%) were retrospective and with data extracted from chart reviews (71%) . We extracted 1,951 outcomes in total, from which, after deletion of repeated outcomes, we identified 256 unique ones. The most frequently assessed outcomes were those related to medication or therapeutic interventions and those to hospital/ healthcare use. Outcomes related to psychosocial wellbeing were rarely assessed. The closer to death, the less frequently the outcomes were studied. CONCLUSIONS: Most outcomes were related to medical interventions or to hospital use. Only a few studies focused on other components of integrated care such as psychosocial aspects. It remains to be defined which of these outcomes are fundamental to achieve the best care for the dying.

Urban Governance, Multisectoral Action, and Civic Engagement for Population Health, Wellbeing, and Equity in Urban Settings: A Systematic Review.

Objectives: To identify the validated and reliable indicators and tools to assess good governance for population health, wellbeing, and equity in urban settings, and assess processes of multisectoral action and civic engagement as reported by peer-reviewed articles. Methods: We conducted a systematic review searching six databases for observational studies reporting strategies of either urban health, multisectoral action or civic engagement for wellbeing, health, or equity. Results: Out of 8,154 studies initially identified we included 17. From the included studies, 14 presented information about high-income countries. The general population was the main target in most studies. Multisectoral action was the most frequently reported strategy (14 studies). Three studies used Urban Health Equity Assessment and Response Tool (Urban HEART). Health indicators were the most frequently represented (6 studies). Barriers and facilitators for the implementation of participatory health governance strategies were reported in 12 studies. Conclusion: Data on the implementation of participatory health governance strategies has been mainly reported in high-income countries. Updated and reliable data, measured repeatedly, is needed to closely monitor these processes and further develop indicators to assess their impact on population health, wellbeing, and equity.

Objectively measured adherence to physical activity among patients with coronary artery disease: Comparison of the 2010 and 2020 World Health Organization guidelines and daily steps.

Background: Tailored recommendations for patients after percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) need physical activity (PA) to be objectively measured and assessed for adherence to guidelines. The recent WHO guidelines removed the daily recommended bout duration, while the potential impact of this change on patients after PCI remains unclear. Aim: We evaluated prevalence estimates of adherence to PA recommendations among patients after PCI across the 2010 [≥30 min moderate- to vigorous-intensity PA (MVPA) at ≥ 10-min bout duration] and 2020 WHO guidelines (≥30 min of MVPA of any bout duration), as well as 7,500 and 10,000 steps. Methods: We conducted an observational longitudinal single-center study with patients after PCI for chronic or acute coronary syndrome (ACS); maximal age 80 years. Wrist-worn accelerometers recorded participants' PA data from the evening of hospital discharge over the next 18 days. Results: We analyzed data from 282 participants with sufficient minimum wear time (7 days of ≥12 h), including 45 (16%) women; and 249 (88%) with ACS. Median wear time was 18 (17, 18) days. Median participant age was 62 (55, 69) years. Fifty-two participants (18.4%) fulfilled 2010 WHO guidelines and 226 (80.1%) fulfilled the 2020 WHO guidelines. Further, 209 (74.1%) participants achieved ≥7,500 steps/day and 155 (55.0%) performed ≥10,000 steps/day. Conclusion: Among participants after PCI, most MVPA was accumulated in bouts <10 min, leading to a fourfold discrepancy between participants fulfilling the 2010 and 2020 WHO PA recommendations. The number of steps/day may be a valid proxy to recent WHO PA recommendations as it is not dependent on the bout-length definition. Clinical trial registration: [ClinicalTrials.gov], identifier [NCT04663373].

Prognostic impact of physical activity patterns after percutaneous coronary intervention. Protocol for a prospective longitudinal cohort. The PIPAP study.

Introduction: Current guidelines recommend wearable activity trackers to detect insufficient physical activity (PA) and help increase PA to prevent or ameliorate cardiovascular disease. However, there is a paucity of data regarding how objectively measured PA trajectories, patterns, and sedentary time, are associated with mortality and recurrent events after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in patients with established coronary artery disease (CAD). Additionally, it remains unclear if early PA and sedentary time after PCI are associated with such outcomes. Therefore, in the present study (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04663373), we aim to establish the associations of objectively measured PA with major adverse cardiac events and mortality at one-year follow-up. Methods and analysis: In this single-centre observational study, patients with CAD will be prospectively recruited immediately after PCI. All the information from the clinical history, baseline characteristics, and outcomes during follow-up will be obtained from the CARDIOBASE registry. Accelerometer data will be collected for 18 days following hospital discharge and 14 days at one-year follow-up. PA trajectories will be identified by group-based trajectory modeling. Major adverse cardiac events and mortality will be prospectively monitored up to 1 year after PCI. All data will be collected using Research Electronic Data Capture.

Time-Dependent Effect of Anthracycline-Based Chemotherapy on Central Arterial Stiffness: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Background and Aims: Anthracycline-based chemotherapy (ANTH-BC) has been proposed to increase arterial stiffness, however, the time-dependency of these effects remain unclear. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to investigate the time-dependent effect of ANTH-BC on markers of central aortic stiffness, namely aortic distensibility (AD) and pulse-wave-velocity (PWV) in cancer patients. Methods: An extensive literature search without language restrictions was performed to identify all studies presenting longitudinal data on the effect of ANTH-BC on either AD and/or central PWV in cancer patients of all ages. An inverse-variance weighted random-effect model was performed with differences from before to after chemotherapy, as well as for short vs. mid-term effects. Results: Of 2,130 articles identified, 9 observational studies with a total of 535 patients (mean age 52 ± 11; 73% women) were included, of which four studies measured AD and seven PWV. Short-term (2-4 months), there was a clinically meaningful increase in arterial stiffness, namely an increase in PWV of 2.05 m/s (95% CI 0.68-3.43) and a decrease in AD (albeit non-significant) of -1.49 mmHg-1 (-3.25 to 0.27) but a smaller effect was observed mid-term (6-12 months) for PWV of 0.88 m/s (-0.25 to 2.02) and AD of -0.37 mmHg-1 (-1.13 to 0.39). There was considerable heterogeneity among the studies. Conclusions: Results from this analysis suggest that in the short-term, ANTH-BC increases arterial stiffness, but that these changes may partly be reversible after therapy termination. Future studies need to elucidate the long-term consequences of ANTH-BC on arterial stiffness, by performing repeated follow-up measurements after ANTH-BC termination. Systematic Review Registration: [www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/], identifier [CRD42019141837].

Diabetes and Myocardial Fibrosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: This systematic review and meta-analysis investigated the association of diabetes and glycemic control with myocardial fibrosis (MF). BACKGROUND: MF is associated with an increased risk of heart failure, coronary artery disease, arrhythmias, and death. Diabetes may influence the development of MF, but evidence is inconsistent. METHODS: The authors searched EMBASE, Medline Ovid, Cochrane CENTRAL, Web of Science, and Google Scholar for observational and interventional studies investigating the association of diabetes, glycemic control, and antidiabetic medication with MF assessed by histology and cardiac magnetic resonance (ie, extracellular volume fraction [ECV%] and T1 time). RESULTS: A total of 32 studies (88% exclusively on type 2 diabetes) involving 5,053 participants were included in the systematic review. Meta-analyses showed that diabetes was associated with a higher degree of MF assessed by histological collagen volume fraction (n = 6 studies; mean difference: 5.80; 95% CI: 2.00-9.59) and ECV% (13 studies; mean difference: 2.09; 95% CI: 0.92-3.27), but not by native or postcontrast T1 time. Higher glycosylated hemoglobin levels were associated with higher degrees of MF. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes is associated with higher degree of MF assessed by histology and ECV% but not by T1 time. In patients with diabetes, worse glycemic control was associated with higher MF degrees. These findings mostly apply to type 2 diabetes and warrant further investigation into whether these associations are causal and which medications could attenuate MF in patients with diabetes.

Systematic Review of Physical Activity Trajectories and Mortality in Patients With Coronary Artery Disease.

BACKGROUND: The role of lifestyle physical activity (PA) trajectories in the mortality risk of patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) remains unclear. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to determine the association of longitudinal PA trajectories with all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in patients with CHD. METHODS: Longitudinal cohorts reporting the association of PA trajectories with mortality in patients with CHD were identified in April 2021 by searching 5 databases without language restrictions. Published HRs and 95% CIs were pooled using random effects models and bias assessed by Egger regression. RESULTS: A total of 9 prospective cohorts included 33,576 patients. The mean age was 62.5 years. The maximum follow-up was 15.7 years. All of the studies assessed PA through validated questionnaires, and mortality was well documented. Changes in PA defined 4 nominal PA trajectories. Compared with always-inactive patients, the risk of all-cause mortality was 50% lower in those who remained active (HR: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.39-0.63); 45% lower in those who were inactive but became active (HR: 0.55; 95% CI: 0.44-0.7); and 20% lower in those who were active but became inactive (HR: 0.80; 95% CI: 0.64-0.99). Similar results were observed for CVD mortality, except for the category of decreased activity (HR: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.67-1.24). The overall risk of bias was low. No evidence of publication bias was found. Multiple sensitivity analyses provided consistent results. CONCLUSIONS: This study illustrates how patients with CHD may benefit by preserving or adopting an active lifestyle. The observation that the benefits of past activity can be weakened or lost if PA is not maintained may be confounded by disease progression.

Clinical outcomes and cardiac rehabilitation in underrepresented groups after percutaneous coronary intervention: an observational study.

AIMS: Underrepresentation of migrants, women, and older adults in cardiovascular disease (CVD) trials may contribute to disparate care and survival. Among patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), we aimed to investigate the associations of (i) underrepresented groups with major adverse cardiac events (MACE), CVD mortality, and non-CVD mortality, (ii) underrepresented groups with cardiac rehabilitation (CR) uptake, and (iii) CR uptake with outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included 15 211 consecutive patients from the CARDIOBASE Bern PCI registry (2009-18). In multi-state models comparing transition probabilities of events, sex was not associated with increased risk of any event. For each year increase in age, the increased risk of non-CVD and CVD mortality was 8% [95% confidence interval (CI) 6-9%]. Being migrant was associated with a lower risk of non-CVD mortality [hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI) 0.49 (0.27-0.90)] but not with CVD mortality. In logistic regression analysis, CR uptake was lower among women [odds ratio (95% CI) = 0.72 (0.57-0.86)] and older adults [0.32 (0.27-0.38)], but not among migrants. In cox regression, CR was independently associated with lower all-cause [HR (95% CI) = 0.12 (0.03-0.37)] and CVD mortality [0.1 (0.02-0.7)], but not with MACE [1.08 (0.8-1.4)]. CONCLUSION: Among underrepresented groups undergoing PCI, age, but not migration status nor sex, contributed to disparities in mortality. Migrant status did not result in lower attendance of CR. Considering the protective associations of CR on CVD mortality independent of age, sex, and migration status, the lower uptake in women and older adults is noteworthy.

Prevalence and characteristics of patients with heart failure needing palliative care.

BACKGROUND: Few hospitals and heart failure (HF) clinics offer concurrent palliative care (PC) together with life-prolonging therapies. To know the prevalence of patients in HF clinics needing PC and useful tools to recognize them are the first steps to extending PC in those settings. However, it is still unknown whether tools commonly used to identify patients with HF needing PC can correctly distinguish them. Two systematic reviews found that the NECesidades PALiativas (NECPAL) tool was one of the two most commonly used tools to asses PC needs in HF patients. Therefore, we assessed 1) the prevalence of PC needs in HF clinics according to the NECPAL tool, and 2) the characteristics of the patients identified as having PC; mainly, their quality of life (QoL), symptom burden, and psychosocial problems. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted at two HF clinics in Colombia. We assessed the prevalence of PC in the overall sample and in subgroups according to clinical and demographic variables. We assessed QoL, symptom burden, and psychosocial problems using the 12-Item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-12), the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ) and the Edmonton Symptom Assessment System (ESAS). We compared the results of these tools between patients identified as having PC needs (+NECPAL) and patients identified as not having PC needs (-NECPAL). RESULTS: Among the 178 patients, 78 (44%) had PC needs. The prevalence of PC needs was twice as nigh in patients NYHA III/IV as in patients NYHA I/II and almost twice as high in patients older than 70 years as in patients younger than 70 years. Compared to -NECPAL patients, +NECPAL patients had worse QoL, more severe shortness of breath, tiredness, drowsiness, and pain, and more psychosocial problems. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of PC needs in outpatient HF clinics is high and is even higher in older patients and in patients at more advanced NYHA stages. Compared to patients identified as not having PC needs, patients identified as having PC needs have worse QoL, more severe symptoms, and greater psychosocial problems. Including a PC provider in the multidisciplinary team of HF clinics may help to assess and cover these needs.

The 'Surprise question' in heart failure: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: The Surprise Question (SQ) is a prognostic screening tool used to identify patients with limited life expectancy. We assessed the SQ's performance predicting 1-year mortality among patients in ambulatory heart failure (HF) clinics. We determined that the SQ's performance changes according to sex and other demographic (age) and clinical characteristics, mainly left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and the New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional classifications. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study in two HF clinics. To assess the performance of the SQ in predicting 1-year mortality, we calculated the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios, and the positive and negative predictive values. To illustrate if the results of the SQ changes the probability that a patient dies within 1 year, we created Fagan's nomograms. We report the results from the overall sample and for subgroups according to sex, age, LVEF and NYHA functional class. RESULTS: We observed that the SQ showed a sensitivity of 85% identifying ambulatory patients with HF who are in the last year of life. We determined that the SQ's performance predicting 1-year mortality was similar among women and men. The SQ performed better for patients aged under 70 years, for patients with reduced or mildly reduced ejection fraction, and for patients NYHA class III/IV. CONCLUSIONS: We consider the tool an easy and fast first step to identify patients with HF who might benefit from an advance care planning discussion or a referral to palliative care due to limited life expectancy.

Impact of home-based palliative care on health care costs and hospital use: A systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effectiveness of home-based palliative care (HBPC) on reducing hospital visits and whether HBPC lowered health care cost. METHOD: We searched six bibliographic databases (Embase (Ovid); Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials; Medline (Ovid); PubMed; Web of Science Core Collection; and, CINAHL) until February 2019 and performed a narrative synthesis of our findings. RESULTS: Of the 1,426 identified references, 21 articles based on 19 unique studies met our inclusion criteria, which involved 92,000 participants. In both oncological and non-oncological patients, HBPC consistently reduced the number of hospital visits and their length, as well as hospitalization costs and overall health care costs. Even though home-treated patients consumed more outpatient resources, a higher saving in the hospital costs counterbalanced this. The reduction in overall health care costs was most noticeable for study periods closer to death, with greater reductions in the last 2 months, last month, and last two weeks of life. SIGNIFICANCE OF RESULTS: Stakeholders should recognize HBPC as an intervention that decreases patient care costs at end of life and therefore health care providers should assess the preferences of patients nearing the end-of-life to identify those who will benefit most from HBPC.

Dynamic interventions to control COVID-19 pandemic: a multivariate prediction modelling study comparing 16 worldwide countries.

To date, non-pharmacological interventions (NPI) have been the mainstay for controlling the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. While NPIs are effective in preventing health systems overload, these long-term measures are likely to have significant adverse economic consequences. Therefore, many countries are currently considering to lift the NPIs-increasing the likelihood of disease resurgence. In this regard, dynamic NPIs, with intervals of relaxed social distancing, may provide a more suitable alternative. However, the ideal frequency and duration of intermittent NPIs, and the ideal "break" when interventions can be temporarily relaxed, remain uncertain, especially in resource-poor settings. We employed a multivariate prediction model, based on up-to-date transmission and clinical parameters, to simulate outbreak trajectories in 16 countries, from diverse regions and economic categories. In each country, we then modelled the impacts on intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and deaths over an 18-month period for following scenarios: (1) no intervention, (2) consecutive cycles of mitigation measures followed by a relaxation period, and (3) consecutive cycles of suppression measures followed by a relaxation period. We defined these dynamic interventions based on reduction of the mean reproduction number during each cycle, assuming a basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.2 for no intervention, and subsequent effective reproduction numbers (R) of 0.8 and 0.5 for illustrative dynamic mitigation and suppression interventions, respectively. We found that dynamic cycles of 50-day mitigation followed by a 30-day relaxation reduced transmission, however, were unsuccessful in lowering ICU hospitalizations below manageable limits. By contrast, dynamic cycles of 50-day suppression followed by a 30-day relaxation kept the ICU demands below the national capacities. Additionally, we estimated that a significant number of new infections and deaths, especially in resource-poor countries, would be averted if these dynamic suppression measures were kept in place over an 18-month period. This multi-country analysis demonstrates that intermittent reductions of R below 1 through a potential combination of suppression interventions and relaxation can be an effective strategy for COVID-19 pandemic control. Such a "schedule" of social distancing might be particularly relevant to low-income countries, where a single, prolonged suppression intervention is unsustainable. Efficient implementation of dynamic suppression interventions, therefore, confers a pragmatic option to: (1) prevent critical care overload and deaths, (2) gain time to develop preventive and clinical measures, and (3) reduce economic hardship globally.

Impacto de diferentes medidas de mitigación en el curso de la pandemia de COVID-19 en Chile: proyección preliminar para el período del 14 de abril al 14 de mayo / Impact of mitigation measures on the COVID-19 pandemic in Chile: preliminary data for the period April 14 to May 14

RESUMEN Objetivo Modelar el curso de la pandemia COVID-19 en Chile y proyectar la demanda de recursos hospitalarios y letalidad en escenarios simulados: primero, recurriendo a distintas medidas de mitigación para contener la propagación en un mes -desde el 14 de abril hasta el 14 de mayo del 2020- y, segundo, en el supuesto contagio del 70% de la población, según edad, sin límite de tiempo. Métodos Utilizamos como base el número de contagios confirmados con SARS-CoV-2 en Chile hasta el 14 de abril del 2020 (8 273 casos, 94 muertes). Para los distintos escenarios, asumimos un número reproductivo básico que va desde R0=2,5 hasta R0=1,5. La proyección de la demanda hospitalaria y letalidad por edad se fundamentaron en reportes italianos y británicos. Resultados Estimamos que para el 14 de mayo del 2020 habría en Chile 2 019 775 contagiados y 15 068 fallecidos en ausencia de medidas de mitigación (R0=2,5). Al implementar medidas que reduzcan R0 a 1,5 (detección temprana y aislamiento de casos, cuarentena y distanciamiento social de mayores de 70 años), el número de contagios y letalidad disminuirían a 94 235 y 703 respectivamente. Sin embargo, la demanda hospitalaria aún sobrepasaría la capacidad de respuesta. La población de mayor riesgo la componen los mayores de 60 años. Conclusión Encontramos evidencia a favor de las medidas de mitigación implementadas por el Gobierno chileno. Sin embargo, medidas más estrictas son necesarias para no colapsar el sistema sanitario, que cuenta con menos recursos hospitalarios que los proyectados. Es esencial aumentar la capacidad hospitalaria en términos de equipamiento y entrenamiento del personal de salud.(AU)

ABSTRACT Objetive To model disease progression, healthcare demand and case fatality rate attributed to COVID-19 pandemic that may occur in Chile in 1-month time, by simulating different scenarios according to diverse mitigation measures hypothetically implemented. Furthermore, we aimed to estimate the same outcomes assuming that 70% of the population will be infected by SARS-CoV-2, with no time limit assumption. Methods We based on the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Chile up to April 14th 2020 (8 273 cases and 94 deaths). For the simulated scenarios we assumed basic reproduction numbers ranging from R0=2.5 to R0=1.5. The estimation of the number of patients that would require intensive care and the age-specific case fatality rate were based on data provided by the Imperial College of London and the Instituto Superiore di Sanità en Italia. Results If no mitigation measures were applied (R0=2.5), by May 25, Chile would have 2 019 775 cases and 15 068 deaths. If mitigations measures were implemented to decrease R0 to 1.5 (early detection of cases, quarantine, social distancing of elderly), the number of cases and deaths would importantly decrease. Nonetheless, the demand for in-hospital care including intensive care would exceed the available resources. Our age-specific analysis showed that population over 60 years are at higher risk of needing intensive care and death. Conclusion Our evidence supports the mitigation measures implemented by the Chilean government. Nevertheless, more stringent measures are needed to prevent the health care system's collapse due to shortfall of resources to confront the COVID-19 pandemic.(AU)

Proyecciones de impacto de la pandemia COVID-19 en la población colombiana, según medidas de mitigación: datos preliminares de modelos epidemiológicos para el periodo del 18 de marzo al 18 de abril de 2020 / Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Colombian population according to mitigation measures: preliminary data from epidemiological models for the period March 18 to April 18, 2020

RESUMEN Objetivo Este estudio tiene como primer objetivo: realizar predicciones del curso de la infección en el horizonte temporal desde marzo 18 a abril 18 del 2020, según diferentes medidas de aislamiento aplicadas. Las predicciones incluyen, población total contagiada, mortalidad y necesidad de recursos hospitalarios. Segundo objetivo: modelar la mortalidad y la necesidad de recursos hospitalarios, estratificando por edad el escenario de contagio del 70% de la población. Métodos Para el primer objetivo, nos basamos en el número de casos confirmados en el país hasta marzo 18, 2020 (n=93). Como suposiciones para el modelo, incluimos un índice de contagio R0=2,5 y el índice de casos reales por cada caso confirmado. Para la proporción de pacientes que necesitarían cuidados intensivos u otros cuidados intrahospitalarios, nos basamos en datos aportados por el Imperial College of London. Para el segundo objetivo usamos como tasa de mortalidad por edad, datos aportados por el Instituto Superiore di Sanità en Italia. Resultados Basándonos en los 93 casos reportados al 18 de marzo, si no se aplicase ninguna medida de mitigación, para el 18 de abril el país tendría un total de 613 037 casos. Medidas de mitigación que reduzcan el R0 en un 10%, generan una reducción del 50% del número de casos. Sin embargo, a pesar de reducirse los casos a la mitad, todavía habría un déficit en el número de camas requeridas y sólo uno de cada dos pacientes tendría acceso a dicho recurso. Conclusión En nuestro modelo encontramos que las medidas de mitigación que han sido implementadas hasta la fecha por el gobierno colombiano, se fundamentan en evidencia suficiente para pensar que es posible reducir significativamente el número de casos contagiados y con esto, el número de pacientes que requerirán manejo hospitalario.(AU)

ABSTRACT Introduction First case of COVID-19 in Colombia was diagnosed on March 6th. Two weeks later, cases have rapidly increased, leading the government to establish some mitigation measures. Objectives The first objective is to estimate and model the number of cases, use of hospital resources and mortality by using different R0 scenarios in a 1-month scenario (from March 18 to April 18, 2020), based on the different isolation measures applied. This work also aims to model, without establishing a time horizon, the same outcomes given the assumption that eventually 70% of the population will be infected. Materials and Methods Data on the number of confirmed cases in the country as of March 18, 2020 (n=93) were taken as the basis for the achievement of the first objective. An initial transmission rate of R0= 2.5 and a factor of 27 for undetected infections per each confirmed case were taken as assumptions for the model. The proportion of patients who may need intensive care or other in-hospital care was based on data from the Imperial College of London. On the other hand, an age-specific mortality rate provided by the Instituto Superiore di Sanità in Italy was used for the second objective. Results Based on the 93 cases reported as of March 18, if no mitigation measures were applied, by April 18, the country would have 613 037 cases. Mitigation measures that reduce R0 by 10% generate a 50% reduction in the number of cases. However, despite halving the number of cases, there would still be a shortfall in the number of beds required and only one in two patients would have access to this resource. Conclusion This model found that the mitigation measures implemented to date by the Colombian government and analyzed in this article are based on sufficient evidence and will help to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Colombia. Although a time horizon of one month was used for this model, it is plausible to believe that, if the current measures are sustained, the mitigation effect will also be sustained over time.(AU)

[Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Colombian population according to mitigation measures. Preliminary data from epidemiological models for the period March 18 to April 18, 2020]. / Proyecciones de impacto de la pandemia COVID-19 en la población colombiana, según medidas de mitigación. Datos preliminares de modelos epidemiológicos para el periodo del 18 de marzo al 18 de abril de 2020.

INTRODUCTION: First case of COVID-19 in Colombia was diagnosed on March 6th. Two weeks later, cases have rapidly increased, leading the government to establish some mitigation measures. OBJECTIVES: The first objective is to estimate and model the number of cases, use of hospital resources and mortality by using different R0 scenarios in a 1-month scenario (from March 18 to April 18, 2020), based on the different isolation measures applied. This work also aims to model, without establishing a time horizon, the same outcomes given the assumption that eventually 70% of the population will be infected. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data on the number of confirmed cases in the country as of March 18, 2020 (n=93) were taken as the basis for the achievement of the first objective. An initial transmission rate of R0= 2.5 and a factor of 27 for undetected infections per each confirmed case were taken as assumptions for the model. The proportion of patients who may need intensive care or other in-hospital care was based on data from the Imperial College of London. On the other hand, an age-specific mortality rate provided by the Instituto Superiore di Sanità in Italy was used for the second objective. RESULTS: Based on the 93 cases reported as of March 18, if no mitigation measures were applied, by April 18, the country would have 613 037 cases. Mitigation measures that reduce R0 by 10% generate a 50% reduction in the number of cases. However, despite halving the number of cases, there would still be a shortfall in the number of beds required and only one in two patients would have access to this resource. CONCLUSION: This model found that the mitigation measures implemented to date by the Colombian government and analyzed in this article are based on sufficient evidence and will help to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Colombia. Although a time horizon of one month was used for this model, it is plausible to believe that, if the current measures are sustained, the mitigation effect will also be sustained over time.

[Impact of mitigation measures on the COVID-19 pandemic in Chile: preliminary data for the period April 14 to May 14]. / Impacto de diferentes medidas de mitigación en el curso de la pandemia de COVID-19 en Chile: proyección preliminar para el período del 14 de abril al 14 de mayo.

OBJETIVE: To model disease progression, healthcare demand and case fatality rate attributed to COVID-19 pandemic that may occur in Chile in 1-month time, by simulating different scenarios according to diverse mitigation measures hypothetically implemented. Furthermore, we aimed to estimate the same outcomes assuming that 70% of the population will be infected by SARS-CoV-2, with no time limit assumption. METHODS: We based on the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Chile up to April 14th 2020 (8 273 cases and 94 deaths). For the simulated scenarios we assumed basic reproduction numbers ranging from R0=2.5 to R0=1.5. The estimation of the number of patients that would require intensive care and the age-specific case fatality rate were based on data provided by the Imperial College of London and the Instituto Superiore di Sanità en Italia. RESULTS: If no mitigation measures were applied (R0=2.5), by May 25, Chile would have 2 019 775 cases and 15 068 deaths. If mitigations measures were implemented to decrease R0 to 1.5 (early detection of cases, quarantine, social distancing of elderly), the number of cases and deaths would importantly decrease. Nonetheless, the demand for in-hospital care including intensive care would exceed the available resources. Our age-specific analysis showed that population over 60 years are at higher risk of needing intensive care and death. CONCLUSION: Our evidence supports the mitigation measures implemented by the Chilean government. Nevertheless, more stringent measures are needed to prevent the health care system's collapse due to shortfall of resources to confront the COVID-19 pandemic.