Is a randomised controlled trial of take home naloxone distributed in emergency settings likely to be feasible and acceptable? Findings from a UK qualitative study exploring perspectives of people who use opioids and emergency services staff.

OBJECTIVE: Distribution of take-home naloxone (THN) by emergency services may increase access to THN and reduce deaths and morbidity from opioid overdose. As part of a feasibility study for a randomised controlled trial (RCT) of distribution of THN kits and education within ambulance services and Emergency Departments (EDs), we used qualitative methods to explore key stakeholders' perceptions of feasibility and acceptability of delivering the trial. METHODS: We undertook semi-structured interviews and focus groups with 26 people who use opioids and with 20 paramedics and ED staff from two intervention sites between 2019 and 2021. Interviews and focus groups were recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed using Framework Analysis. RESULTS: People using opioids reported high awareness of overdose management, including personal experience of THN use. Staff perceived emergency service provision of THN as a low-cost, low-risk intervention with potential to reduce mortality, morbidity and health service use. Staff understood the trial aims and considered it compatible with their work. All participants supported widening access to THN but reported limited trial recruitment opportunities partly due to difficulties in consenting patients during overdose. Procedural problems, restrictive recruitment protocols, limited staff buy-in and patients already owning THN limited trial recruitment. Determining trial effectiveness was challenging due to high levels of alternative community provision of THN. CONCLUSIONS: Distribution of THN in emergency settings was considered feasible and acceptable for stakeholders but an RCT to establish the effectiveness of THN delivery is unlikely to generate further useful evidence due to difficulties in recruiting patients and assessing benefits.

Pre-hospital prediction of adverse outcomes in patients with suspected COVID-19: Development, application and comparison of machine learning and deep learning methods.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 infected millions of people and increased mortality worldwide. Patients with suspected COVID-19 utilised emergency medical services (EMS) and attended emergency departments, resulting in increased pressures and waiting times. Rapid and accurate decision-making is required to identify patients at high-risk of clinical deterioration following COVID-19 infection, whilst also avoiding unnecessary hospital admissions. Our study aimed to develop artificial intelligence models to predict adverse outcomes in suspected COVID-19 patients attended by EMS clinicians. METHOD: Linked ambulance service data were obtained for 7,549 adult patients with suspected COVID-19 infection attended by EMS clinicians in the Yorkshire and Humber region (England) from 18-03-2020 to 29-06-2020. We used support vector machines (SVM), extreme gradient boosting, artificial neural network (ANN) models, ensemble learning methods and logistic regression to predict the primary outcome (death or need for organ support within 30 days). Models were compared with two baselines: the decision made by EMS clinicians to convey patients to hospital, and the PRIEST clinical severity score. RESULTS: Of the 7,549 patients attended by EMS clinicians, 1,330 (17.6%) experienced the primary outcome. Machine Learning methods showed slight improvements in sensitivity over baseline results. Further improvements were obtained using stacking ensemble methods, the best geometric mean (GM) results were obtained using SVM and ANN as base learners when maximising sensitivity and specificity. CONCLUSIONS: These methods could potentially reduce the numbers of patients conveyed to hospital without a concomitant increase in adverse outcomes. Further work is required to test the models externally and develop an automated system for use in clinical settings.

The DiPEP study: an observational study of the diagnostic accuracy of clinical assessment, D-dimer and chest x-ray for suspected pulmonary embolism in pregnancy and postpartum.

OBJECTIVE: To identify clinical features associated with pulmonary embolism (PE) diagnosis and determine the accuracy of decision rules and D-dimer for diagnosing suspected PE in pregnant/postpartum women DESIGN: Observational cohort study augmented with additional cases. SETTING: Emergency departments and maternity units at eleven prospectively recruiting sites and maternity units in the United Kingdom Obstetric Surveillance System (UKOSS) POPULATION: 324 pregnant/postpartum women with suspected PE and 198 pregnant/postpartum women with diagnosed PE METHODS: We recorded clinical features, elements of clinical decision rules, D-dimer measurements, imaging results, treatments and adverse outcomes up to 30 days MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Women were classified as having PE on the basis of imaging, treatment and adverse outcomes by assessors blind to clinical features and D-dimer. Primary analysis was limited to women with conclusive imaging to avoid work-up bias. Secondary analyses included women with clinically diagnosed or ruled out PE. RESULTS: The only clinical features associated with PE on multivariate analysis were age (odds ratio 1.06; 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.11), previous thrombosis (3.07; 1.05-8.99), family history of thrombosis (0.35; 0.14-0.90), temperature (2.22; 1.26-3.91), systolic blood pressure (0.96; 0.93-0.99), oxygen saturation (0.87; 0.78-0.97) and PE-related chest x-ray abnormality (13.4; 1.39-130.2). Clinical decision rules had areas under the receiver-operator characteristic curve ranging from 0.577 to 0.732 and no clinically useful threshold for decision-making. Sensitivities and specificities of D-dimer were 88.4% and 8.8% using a standard threshold and 69.8% and 32.8% using a pregnancy-specific threshold. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical decision rules and D-dimer should not be used to select pregnant or postpartum women with suspected PE for further investigation. Clinical features and chest x-ray appearances may have counter-intuitive associations with PE in this context. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Clinical decision rules and D-dimer are not helpful for diagnosing pregnant/postpartum women with suspected PE.

'Seizure First Aid Training' for people with epilepsy who attend emergency departments, and their family and friends: study protocol for intervention development and a pilot randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: People with chronic epilepsy (PWE) often make costly but clinically unnecessary emergency department (ED) visits. Offering them and their carers a self-management intervention that improves confidence and ability to manage seizures may lead to fewer visits. As no such intervention currently exists, we describe a project to develop and pilot one. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: To develop the intervention, an existing group-based seizure management course that has been offered by the Epilepsy Society within the voluntary sector to a broader audience will be adapted. Feedback from PWE, carers and representatives from the main groups caring for PWE will help refine the course so that it addresses the needs of ED attendees. Its behaviour change potential will also be optimised. A pilot randomised controlled trial will then be completed. 80 PWE aged ≥16 who have visited the ED in the prior 12 months on ≥2 occasions, along with one of their family members or friends, will be recruited from three NHS EDs. Dyads will be randomised to receive the intervention or treatment as usual alone. The proposed primary outcome is ED use in the 12 months following randomisation. For the pilot, this will be measured using routine hospital data. Secondary outcomes will be measured by patients and carers completing questionnaires 3, 6 and 12 months postrandomisation. Rates of recruitment, retention and unblinding will be calculated, along with the ED event rate in the control group and an estimate of the intervention's effect on the outcome measures. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval: NRES Committee North West-Liverpool East (Reference number 15/NW/0225). The project's findings will provide robust evidence on the acceptability of seizure management training and on the optimal design of a future definitive trial. The findings will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN13 871 327.

The clinical and diagnostic performance characteristics of the high sensitivity Abbott cardiac troponin I assay.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study is to determine the imprecision profile, 99th percentile and diagnostic efficiency of a new high sensitivity cardiac troponin I (cTnI) assay. METHODS: Total imprecision was assessed by following CLSI protocol EP15-A.14. Serum pools prepared from sera of known high cardiac troponin concentrations were adjusted by dilution with serum considered to be troponin free. Determination of the 99th-percentile reference value examined a fully characterized population that had undergone non-invasive cardiac imaging. Diagnostic accuracy utilised samples from the point of care arm of the RATPAC trial (Randomised Assessment of Treatment using Panel Assay of Cardiac markers), set in the emergency departments of six hospitals. Blood samples were taken on admission and 90min from admission. Diagnosis was based on the universal definition of myocardial infarction utilising laboratory measurements of cardiac troponin performed at the participating sites together with measurements performed in a core laboratory and compared by construction of receiver operator characteristic curves. RESULTS: Total imprecision was 4%-12.1% with 10% CV of 7ng/L. cTnI was measureable in 99.5% of the samples. Troponin values were influenced by gender but not by age. The 99th percentile was 14.8ng/L (18.1 males, 8.6 females). Progressive filtering of the population reduced the 99th percentile. For the diagnosis of MI on admission the area under the curve was 0.92, statistically indistinguishable from four other assays studied (0.90-0.94). CONCLUSION: The analytical performance of the new assay meets the criteria for a high sensitivity troponin assay.

Illness representations, psychological distress and non-cardiac chest pain in patients attending an emergency department.

OBJECTIVE: Many patients who attend an emergency department (ED) with chest pain receive a diagnosis of non-cardiac chest pain (NCCP), and often suffer poor psychological outcomes and continued pain. This study assessed the role of illness representations in explaining psychological distress and continued chest pain in patients attending an ED. METHODS: ED NCCP patients (N = 138) completed measures assessing illness representations, anxiety, depression and quality of life (QoL) at baseline, and chest pain at one month. RESULTS: Illness representations explained significant amounts of the variance in anxiety (Adj. R² = .38), depression (Adj. R² = .18) and mental QoL (Adj. R² = .36). A belief in psychological causes had the strongest associations with outcomes. At one month, 28.7% of participants reported experiencing frequent pain, 13.2% infrequent pain and 58.1% no pain. Anxiety, depression and poor QoL, but not illness representations, were associated with continued chest pain. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that (i) continued chest pain is related to psychological distress and poor QoL, (ii) interventions should be aimed at reducing psychological distress and improving QoL and (iii) given the associations between perceived psychological causes and psychological distress/QoL, NCCP patients in the ED might benefit from psychological therapies to manage their chest pain.

Interventions to improve the management of pain in emergency departments: systematic review and narrative synthesis.

INTRODUCTION: Pain management in emergency departments (ED) is often inadequate despite the availability of effective analgesia, with many patients receiving insufficient and untimely analgesia. We conducted a systematic literature review to identify interventions that could improve pain management in the ED. METHODS: We systematically searched seven databases for studies reporting pain management outcomes after intervention to change professional practice to improve pain management in the ED, compared with pain management before or without intervention. Data was synthesised using principles of narrative synthesis. RESULTS: We identified 43 relevant studies, including 40 uncontrolled before-and-after studies. Interventions included implementation of guidelines and protocols, educational interventions, pain scoring tools and changes in nursing roles, with many multifaceted interventions incorporating two or more of these elements. Interventions aimed to improve assessment and documentation of pain, knowledge and awareness of pain management and reduce time to analgesia. Due to the high probability of bias in study design and significant variation between studies, it was not possible to estimate the overall effectiveness of interventions, or identify which had the greatest impact. Intervention to improve pain management was reported to have some positive impact in most studies, but these findings may be explained by limitations in study design. CONCLUSIONS: Many interventions reported improvements in pain management, but current evidence is insufficient to recommend any for widespread adoption. In order to improve pain management we need to understand more about the theory underlying interventions, the context in which interventions work, and develop interventions based on this stronger theoretical understanding.

The cost-effectiveness of diagnostic management strategies for children with minor head injury.

AIM: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of diagnostic management strategies for children with minor head injury and identify an optimal strategy. METHODS: A probabilistic decision analysis model was developed to estimate the costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) accrued by each of six potential management strategies for minor head injury, including a theoretical 'zero option' strategy of discharging all patients home without investigation. The model took a lifetime horizon and the perspective of the National Health Service. RESULTS: The optimal strategy was based on the Children's Head injury Algorithm for the prediction of Important Clinical Events (CHALICE) rule, although the costs and outcomes associated with each strategy were broadly similar. CONCLUSIONS: Liberal use of CT scanning based on a high sensitivity decision rule is not only effective but also cost saving, with the CHALICE rule being the optimal strategy, although there is some uncertainty in the results. Incremental changes in the costs and QALYs are very small when all selective CT strategies are compared. The estimated cost of caring for patients with brain injury worsened by delayed treatment is very high compared with the cost of CT scanning. This analysis suggests that all hospitals receiving children with minor head injury should have unrestricted access to CT scanning for use in conjunction with evidence-based guidelines.

Randomised Assessment of Treatment using Panel Assay of Cardiac markers--Contemporary Biomarker Evaluation (RATPAC CBE).

OBJECTIVES: To test the diagnostic accuracy for detecting an acute myocardial infarction (AMI) using highly sensitive troponin assays and a range of new cardiac biomarkers of plaque destabilisation, myocardial ischaemia and necrosis; to test the prognostic accuracy for detecting adverse cardiac events using highly sensitive troponin assays and this range of new cardiac biomarkers; and to estimate the cost-effectiveness of using highly sensitive troponin assays or this range of new cardiac biomarkers instead of an admission and 10- to 12-hour troponin measurement. DESIGN: Substudy of the point-of-care arm of the RATPAC (Randomised Assessment of Treatment using Panel Assay of Cardiac markers) trial. SETTING: The emergency departments of six hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: Prospective admissions with chest pain and a non-diagnostic electrocardiogram randomised to point-of-care assessment or conventional management. INTERVENTIONS: Blood samples taken on admission and 90 minutes from admission for measurement of cardiac markers [cardiac troponin I (cTnI), myoglobin and creatine kinase MB isoenzyme (CK-MB)] by point-of-care testing. An additional blood sample was taken at admission and 90 minutes from admission for analysis of high-sensitivity cTnI (two methods) and cardiac troponin T (cTnT), myoglobin, heart-type fatty acid-binding protein (H-FABP), copeptin and B-type natriuretic peptide (NTproBNP). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: 1. Diagnostic accuracy compared with the universal definition of myocardial infarction utilising laboratory measurements of cardiac troponin performed at the participating sites together with measurements performed in a core laboratory. 2. Ability of biomarker measurements to predict major adverse cardiac events (death, non-fatal AMI, emergency revascularisation or hospitalisation for myocardial ischaemia) at 3 months' follow-up. 3. Comparison of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of different biomarker measurement strategies for the diagnosis of myocardial infarction. RESULTS: Samples were available from 850 out of 1132 patients enrolled in the study. Measurement of admission myoglobin [area under the curve (AUC) 0.76] and CK-MB (AUC 0.84) was diagnostically inferior and did not add to the diagnostic efficiency of cTnI (AUC 0.90-0.94) or cTnT (AUC 0.92) measurement on admission. Simultaneous measurement of H-FABP and cTnT or cTnI did improve admission diagnostic sensitivity to 0.78-0.92, but only to the same level as that achieved with troponin measured on admission and at 90 minutes from admission (0.78-0.95). Copeptin (AUC 0.62) and NTproBNP (AUC 0.85) measured on admission were not useful as diagnostic markers. As a prognostic marker, troponin measured on admission using a high-sensitivity assay (AUC 0.73-0.83) was equivalent to NTproBNP measurement (AUC 0.77) on admission, but superior to copeptin measurement (AUC 0.58). From modelling, 10-hour troponin measurement is likely to be cost-effective compared with rapid rule-out strategies only if a £30,000 per QALY threshold is used and patients can be discharged as soon as a negative result is available. CONCLUSIONS: The measurement of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin is the best single marker in patients presenting with chest pain. Additional measurements of myoglobin or CK-MB are not clinically effective or cost-effective. The optimal timing for measurement of cardiac troponin remains to be defined. Copeptin measurement is not recommended. H-FABP requires further investigation before it can be recommended for simultaneous measurement with high-sensitivity troponin in patients with acute chest pain. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN37823923. FUNDING: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 17, No. 15. See the HTA programme website for further project information.

Systematic review, meta-analysis and economic modelling of diagnostic strategies for suspected acute coronary syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Current practice for suspected acute coronary syndrome (ACS) involves troponin testing 10-12 hours after symptom onset to diagnose myocardial infarction (MI). Patients with a negative troponin can be investigated further with computed tomographic coronary angiography (CTCA) or exercise electrocardiography (ECG). OBJECTIVES: We aimed to estimate the diagnostic accuracy of early biomarkers for MI, the prognostic accuracy of biomarkers for major adverse cardiac adverse events (MACEs) in troponin-negative patients, the diagnostic accuracy of CTCA and exercise ECG for coronary artery disease (CAD) and the prognostic accuracy of CTCA and exercise ECG for MACEs in patients with suspected ACS. We then aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of using alternative biomarker strategies to diagnose MI, and using biomarkers, CTCA and exercise ECG to risk-stratify troponin-negative patients. DATA SOURCES: We searched MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations; Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), EMBASE, Web of Science, Cochrane Central Database of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR), NHS Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) and the Health Technology Assessment database from 1985 (CTCA review) or 1995 (biomarkers review) to November 2010, reviewed citation lists and contacted experts to identify relevant studies. REVIEW METHODS: Diagnostic studies were assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS) tool and prognostic studies using a framework adapted for the project. Meta-analysis was conducted using bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. We developed a decision-analysis model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of alternative biomarker strategies to diagnose MI, and the cost-effectiveness of biomarkers, CTCA or exercise ECG to risk-stratify patients with a negative troponin. Strategies were applied to a theoretical cohort of patients with suspected ACS. Cost-effectiveness was estimated as the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of each strategy compared with the next most effective, taking a health-service perspective and a lifetime horizon. RESULTS: Sensitivity and specificity (95% predictive interval) were 77% (29-96%) and 93% (46-100%) for troponin I, 80% (33-97%) and 91% (53-99%) for troponin T (99th percentile threshold), 81% (50-95%) and 80% (26-98%) for quantitative heart-type fatty acid-binding protein (H-FABP), 68% (11-97%) and 92% (20-100%) for qualitative H-FABP, 77% (19-98%) and 39% (2-95%) for ischaemia-modified albumin and 62% (35-83%) and 83% (35-98%) for myoglobin. CTCA had 94% (61-99%) sensitivity and 87% (16-100%) specificity for CAD. Positive CTCA and positive-exercise ECG had relative risks of 5.8 (0.6-24.5) and 8.0 (2.3-22.7) for MACEs. In most scenarios in the economic analysis presentation, high-sensitivity troponin measurement was the most effective strategy with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of less than the £20,000-30,000/QALY threshold (ICER £7487-17,191/QALY). CTCA appeared to be the most cost-effective strategy for patients with a negative troponin, with an ICER of £11,041/QALY. However, when a lower MACE rate was assumed, CTCA had a high ICER (£262,061/QALY) and the no-testing strategy was optimal. LIMITATIONS: There was substantial variation between the primary studies and heterogeneity in their results. Findings of the economic model were dependent on assumptions regarding the value of detecting and treating positive cases. CONCLUSIONS: Although presentation troponin has suboptimal sensitivity, measurement of a 10-hour troponin level is unlikely to be cost-effective in most scenarios compared with a high-sensitivity presentation troponin. CTCA may be a cost-effective strategy for troponin-negative patients, but further research is required to estimate the effect of CTCA on event rates and health-care costs. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Hospital characteristics affecting potentially avoidable emergency admissions: national ecological study.

Some emergency admissions can be avoided if acute exacerbations of health problems are managed by emergency and urgent care services without resorting to admission to a hospital bed. In England, these services include hospitals, emergency ambulance, and a range of primary and community services. The aim was to identify whether characteristics of hospitals affect potentially avoidable emergency admission rates. An age-sex adjusted rate of admission for 14 conditions rich in avoidable emergency admissions was calculated for 129 hospitals in England for 2008-2011. Twenty-two per cent (3,273,395/14,998,773) of emergency admissions were classed as potentially avoidable, with threefold variation between hospitals. Explanatory factors of this variation included those which hospital managers could not control (demand for hospital emergency departments) and those which they could control (supply in terms of numbers of acute beds in the hospital, and management of non-emergency and emergency patients within the hospital). Avoidable admission rates were higher for hospitals with higher emergency department attendance rates, higher numbers of acute beds per 1000 catchment population and higher conversion rates from emergency department attendance to admission. Hospital managers may be able to reduce avoidable emergency admissions by reducing supply of acute beds and conversion rates from emergency department attendance.

The cost-effectiveness of diagnostic management strategies for adults with minor head injury.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of diagnostic management strategies for adults with minor head injury. METHODS: A mathematical model was constructed to evaluate the incremental costs and effectiveness (Quality Adjusted Life years Gained, QALYs) of ten diagnostic management strategies for adults with minor head injuries. Secondary analyses were undertaken to determine the cost-effectiveness of hospital admission compared to discharge home and to explore the cost-effectiveness of strategies when no responsible adult was available to observe the patient after discharge. RESULTS: The apparent optimal strategy was based on the high and medium risk Canadian CT Head Rule (CCHRhm), although the costs and outcomes associated with each strategy were broadly similar. Hospital admission for patients with non-neurosurgical injury on CT dominated discharge home, whilst hospital admission for clinically normal patients with a normal CT was not cost-effective compared to discharge home with or without a responsible adult at £39 and £2.5 million per QALY, respectively. A selective CT strategy with discharge home if the CT scan was normal remained optimal compared to not investigating or CT scanning all patients when there was no responsible adult available to observe them after discharge. CONCLUSION: Our economic analysis confirms that the recent extension of access to CT scanning for minor head injury is appropriate. Liberal use of CT scanning based on a high sensitivity decision rule is not only effective but also cost-saving. The cost of CT scanning is very small compared to the estimated cost of caring for patients with brain injury worsened by delayed treatment. It is recommended therefore that all hospitals receiving patients with minor head injury should have unrestricted access to CT scanning for use in conjunction with evidence based guidelines. Provisionally the CCHRhm decision rule appears to be the best strategy although there is considerable uncertainty around the optimal decision rule. However, the CCHRhm rule appears to be the most widely validated and it therefore seems appropriate to conclude that the CCHRhm rule has the best evidence to support its use.

Diagnostic management strategies for adults and children with minor head injury: a systematic review and an economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Patients with minor head injury [Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score 13-15] have a small but important risk of intracranial injury (ICI) that requires early identification and neurosurgical treatment. Diagnostic assessment can use either a clinical decision rule or unstructured assessment of individual clinical features to identify those who are at risk of ICI and in need of computerised tomography (CT) scanning and/or hospital admission. Selective use of CT investigations helps minimise unnecessary radiation exposure and resource use, but can lead to missed opportunities to provide early treatment for ICI. OBJECTIVES: To determine the diagnostic accuracy of decision rules, individual clinical characteristics, skull radiography and biomarkers, and the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of diagnostic management strategies for minor head injury (MHI). DATA SOURCES: Several electronic databases [including MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), EMBASE and The Cochrane Library] were searched from inception to April 2009 (updated searches to March 2010 were conducted on the MEDLINE databases only). Searches were supplemented by hand-searching relevant articles (including citation searching) and contacting experts in the field. For each of the systematic reviews the following studies were included (1) cohort studies of patients with MHI in which a clinical decision rule or individual clinical characteristics (including biomarkers and skull radiography) were compared with a reference standard test for ICI or need for neurosurgical intervention and (2) controlled trials comparing alternative management strategies for MHI. REVIEW METHODS: Study quality was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS) tool (for the assessment of diagnostic accuracy) or criteria recommended by the Effective Practice and Organisation of Care Review Group (for the assessment of management practices). Where sufficient data existed, a meta-analysis was undertaken to generate pooled estimates of diagnostic parameters. A decision-analysis model was developed using Simul8 2008 Professional software (Simul8 Corporation, Boston, MA, USA) to estimate the costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) accrued by management strategies for MHI. The model took a lifetime horizon and NHS perspective. Estimates of the benefits of early treatment, harm of radiation exposure and long-term costs were obtained through literature reviews. Initial analysis was deterministic, but probabilistic sensitivity analysis was also performed. Secondary analyses were undertaken to explore the trade-off between sensitivity and specificity in diagnostic strategies and to determine the cost-effectiveness of scenarios involving hospital admission. RESULTS: The literature searches identified 8003 citations. Of these, 93 full-text papers were included for the assessment of diagnostic accuracy and one for the assessment of management practices. The quality of studies and reporting was generally poor. The Canadian CT Head Rule (CCHR) was the most widely validated adult rule, with sensitivity of 99-100% and 80-100% for neurosurgical and any ICI, respectively (high- or medium-risk criteria), and specificity of 39-51%. Rules for children had high sensitivity and acceptable specificity in derivation cohorts, but limited validation. Depressed, basal or radiological skull fracture and post-traumatic seizure (PTS) [positive likelihood ratio (PLR) > 10]; focal neurological deficit, persistent vomiting, decrease in GCS and previous neurosurgery (PLR 5-10); and fall from a height, coagulopathy, chronic alcohol use, age > 60 years, pedestrian motor vehicle accident (MVA), any seizure, undefined vomiting, amnesia, GCS < 14 and GCS < 15 (PLR 2-5) increased the likelihood of ICI in adults. Depressed or basal skull fracture and focal neurological deficit (PLR > 10), coagulopathy, PTS and previous neurosurgery (PLR 5-10), visual symptoms, bicycle and pedestrian MVA, any seizure, loss of consciousness, vomiting, severe or persistent headache, amnesia, GCS < 14, GCS < 15, intoxication and radiological skull fracture (PLR 2-5) increased the likelihood of ICI in children. S100 calcium-binding protein B had pooled sensitivity of 96.8% [95% highest-density region (HDR) 93.8% to 98.6%] and specificity of 42.5% (95% HDR 31.0% to 54.2%). The only controlled trial showed that early CT and discharge is cheaper and at least as effective as hospital admission. Economic analysis showed that selective CT use dominated 'CT all' and 'discharge all' strategies. The optimal strategies were the CCHR (adults) and the CHALICE (Children's Head injury Algorithm for the prediction of Important Clinical Events) or NEXUS II (National Emergency X-Radiography Utilization Study II) rule (children). The sensitivity and specificity of the CCHR (99% and 47%, respectively) represented an appropriate trade-off of these parameters. Hospital admission dominated discharge home for patients with non-neurosurgical injury, but cost £39 M per QALY for clinically normal patients with a normal CT. CONCLUSIONS: The CCHR is widely validated and cost-effective for adults. Decision rules for children appear cost-effective, but need further validation. Hospital admission is cost-effective for patients with abnormal, but not normal, CT. The main research priorities are to (1) validate decision rules for children; (2) determine the prognosis and treatment benefit for non-neurosurgical injuries; (3) evaluate the use of S100B alongside a validated decision rule; (4) evaluate the diagnosis and outcomes of anticoagulated patients with MHI; and (5) evaluate the implementation of guidelines, clinical decision rules and diagnostic strategies. Formal expected value of sample information analysis would be recommended to appraise the cost-effectiveness of future studies. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

The RATPAC (Randomised Assessment of Treatment using Panel Assay of Cardiac markers) trial: a randomised controlled trial of point-of-care cardiac markers in the emergency department.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of using a point-of-care cardiac marker panel in patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) with suspected but not proven acute myocardial infarction (AMI). DESIGN: Multicentre pragmatic open randomised controlled trial and economic evaluation. SETTING: Six acute hospital EDs in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: Adults presenting to hospital with chest pain due to suspected but not proven myocardial infarction, and no other potentially serious alternative pathology or comorbidity. INTERVENTIONS: Participants were allocated using an online randomisation system to receive either (1) diagnostic assessment using the point-of-care biochemical marker panel or (2) conventional diagnostic assessment without the panel. All tests and treatments other than the panel were provided at the discretion of the clinician. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was the proportion of patients successfully discharged home after ED assessment, defined as patients who had (1) either left the hospital or were awaiting transport home with a discharge decision having been made at 4 hours after initial presentation and (2) suffered no major adverse event (as defined below) during the following 3 months. Secondary outcomes included length of initial hospital stay and total inpatient days over 3 months, and major adverse events (death, non-fatal AMI, life-threatening arrhythmia, emergency revascularisation or hospitalisation for myocardial ischaemia). Economic analysis estimated mean costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and then estimated the probability of cost-effectiveness assuming willingness to pay of £20,000 per QALY gained. RESULTS: We randomised 1132 participants to point of care and 1131 to standard care, and analysed 1125 and 1118, respectively [mean age 54.5 years, 1307/2243 (58%) male and 269/2243 (12%) with known coronary heart disease (CHD)]. In the point-of-care group 358/1125 (32%) were successfully discharged compared with 146/1118 (13%) in the standard-care group [odds ratio (OR) adjusted for age, gender and history of CHD 3.81; 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.01 to 4.82, p < 0.001]. Mean length of the initial hospital stay was 29.6 hours versus 31.8 hours (mean difference = 2.1 hours; 95% CI -3.7 to 8.0 hours, p = 0.462), while median length of initial hospital stay was 8.8 hours versus 14.2 hours (p < 0.001). More patients in the point-of-care group had no inpatient days recorded during follow-up (54% vs 40%, p < 0.001), but mean inpatient days did not differ between the two groups (1.8 vs 1.7, p = 0.815). More patients in the point-of-care group were managed on coronary care [50/1125 (4%) vs 31/1118 (3%), p = 0.041]. There were 36 (3%) patients with major adverse events in the point-of-care group and 26 (2%) in the standard-care group (adjusted OR 1.31; 95% CI 0.78 to 2.20, p = 0.313). Mean costs per patient were £1217 with point-of-care versus £1006 with standard care (p = 0.056), while mean QALYs were 0.158 versus 0.161 (p = 0.250). The probability of standard care being dominant (i.e. cheaper and more effective) was 0.888. CONCLUSIONS: Point-of-care testing increases the proportion of patients successfully discharged home and reduces the median (but not mean) length of hospital stay. It is more expensive than standard care and unlikely to be considered cost-effective. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN37823923. FUNDING: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 15, No. 23. See the HTA programme website for further project information.

Evaluation of triage methods used to select patients with suspected pandemic influenza for hospital admission: cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Triage methods are necessary in emergency departments to provide clinicians with a reliable method for determining each patient's risk of adverse outcome. Prior to the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic the CURB-65 (a risk prediction score for pneumonia, based on confusion, urea level, respiratory rate, blood pressure and age over 65 years) pneumonia score and the Pandemic Modified Early Warning Score (PMEWS) were used to assess adults. In response to the emergence of the pandemic, national guidance produced a new swine flu hospital pathway for use adults and children. However, none of these methods had been widely validated or tested in the setting of pandemic influenza. OBJECTIVES: To use the initial waves of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic to evaluate existing triage methods in patients presenting with suspected pandemic influenza, and to determine whether an improved triage method could be developed. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was undertaken of patients with suspected swine flu presenting to four hospitals during the second wave of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Staff completed a standardised assessment form that included the CURB-65 score, PMEWS and the swine flu hospital pathway. Patients who died or required respiratory, cardiovascular or renal support during the 30-day follow-up were defined as having a poor outcome. Patients who survived to 30 days without requiring respiratory, cardiovascular or renal support were defined as having a good outcome. RESULTS: Data were collected and analysed from 481 cases across three hospitals. Most of the cases were children, with 347 out of 481 (72%) aged 16 years or less. There were five poor outcomes: two deaths and three survivors who required respiratory support. The five patients with poor outcomes had CURB-65 scores of zero, one (three cases) and two, and PMEWS scores of one, five, six, seven and eight. The swine flu hospital pathway was positive in three out of five cases. The C-statistic for each method was CURB-65 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58 to 0.99], PMEWS 0.77 (95% CI 0.55 to 0.99) and the swine flu hospital pathway 0.70 (95% CI 0.45 to 0.96). Patients with a higher CURB-65 score were more likely to be admitted (p < 0.001): 25 out of 101 (25%) with a score of zero, 11 out of 24 (46%) with a score of one, 7 out of 8 (88%) with a score of two, and the patient with a score of three were admitted. Admitted patients had a higher mean PMEWS score (4.6 vs 2.0, p < 0.001). The C-statistics for CURB-65, PMEWS and the swine flu hospital pathway in adults in terms of discriminating between those admitted and discharged were 0.65 (95% CI 0.54 to 0.76), 0.76 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.86) and 0.62 (95% CI 0.51 to 0.72) respectively. LIMITATIONS: The 2009 H1N1 pandemic was much smaller and less severe than predicted and resulted in a lack of sufficient data. CONCLUSIONS: Potential concerns were raised about the use of existing triage methods for patients with suspected pandemic influenza, as these methods may fail to discriminate between patients who will have an adverse outcome and those with a benign course. Clinicians in the study did not generally appear to admit or discharge on the basis of these methods, despite their recommended use. Further research is required to evaluate existing triage methods and develop new triage tools for suspected pandemic influenza.

Diuretic, opiate and nitrate use in severe acidotic acute cardiogenic pulmonary oedema: analysis from the 3CPO trial.

BACKGROUND: Drug treatments for acute cardiogenic pulmonary oedema (ACPO) have not been rigorously evaluated and recent observational data suggests some agents are related to poorer outcome. AIM: We aimed to examine the effect of treatment with diuretics, nitrates and opiates on 7-day mortality, acidosis and respiratory distress in UK Emergency Department (ED) patients with severe acidotic pulmonary oedema. DESIGN: Analysis of data from the 3CPO trial; a multicentre randomized controlled trial. METHODS: Data were analysed from patients recruited with severe acidotic pulmonary oedema to the 3CPO trial in 26 UK EDs between 2003 and 2007. The effects of these treatments on 7-day mortality, improvement in acidosis (pH change between baseline and 1 h) and improvement in respiratory distress (patient measured breathlessness using a Visual Analogue Score between baseline and 1 h) were tested using univariate logistic regression analysis, and a regression model used to adjust for confounding baseline differences. RESULTS: Nitrates were given to 947/1048 (90.4%) patients, diuretics to 934/1049 (89.0%) patients and opiates to 541/1052 patients (51.4%). Adjusted analysis showed that opiate treatment was associated with less improvement in acidosis [difference in improvement in pH -0.022, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.014 to -0.030, P < 0.001], but no difference in mortality or improvement in respiratory distress. We found no evidence that nitrate or diuretic use were associated with any difference in mortality, improvement in acidosis or respiratory distress. CONCLUSION: Opiate use is associated with less improvement in acidosis during initial treatment and may attenuate effective treatment of severe acidotic ACPO.

Accessibility versus confidentiality of information in the emergency department.

INTRODUCTION: In the emergency department (ED), clinicians can benefit greatly from having access to information at the point of care. It has been suggested that using computerised information systems could improve the accessibility of information. However, making information accessible, while maintaining confidentiality, is one of the main challenges of implementing information systems. This article presents the ED staff perspectives about the accessibility and confidentiality of information in the ED. METHOD: The authors undertook a qualitative study in March-April 2007. Data were collected using in-depth semi-structured interviews with the ED staff of an ED located in Northern England. In total, 34 interviews were conducted and transcribed verbatim. Data were analysed using framework analysis. RESULTS: The results showed that the ED staff had role-based access to the current information systems, and these systems met only a small part of their information needs. As a result, different sources were used to get access to the needed information. Although the ED staff believed that improving the accessibility of information could be helpful in emergency care services, there were concerns about the confidentiality of information. The confidentiality of information could be threatened--for example, by sharing passwords, misusing patient information or by unauthorised staff having access to patient information. CONCLUSION: To design a system, the accessibility and confidentiality of information should be addressed in parallel. A balance between these two is needed, as the failure of each of these may negatively influence the use of the system.

Clinical diagnosis of acute coronary syndrome in patients with chest pain and a normal or non-diagnostic electrocardiogram.

BACKGROUND: Clinical features may be used to determine which patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome (ACS), but a normal or non-diagnostic ECG, should be selected for further investigation or inpatient care. We aimed to measure the diagnostic value of clinical features for ACS. METHODS: Standardised data relating to presenting characteristics, associated features and risk factors were collected at seven chest pain units established for the ESCAPE trial. All patients received troponin measurement at least 6 h after last significant symptoms, creatine kinase MB(mass) gradient over 2 h and, if appropriate, treadmill exercise testing. The reference standard of ACS was defined as troponin >0.03 ng/ml, creatine kinase MB(mass) gradient >3.0 ng/ml or early positive treadmill exercise test. RESULTS: 1576 patients were analysed, including 132 (8.4%) with ACS. Patients with ACS were older, had longer symptom duration, were more likely to be a man, hypertensive and an ex-smoker or have pain radiating to their right arm. On multivariate analysis, only age, duration, sex and radiation of pain to the right arm were independently associated with ACS. Likelihood ratios (95% CI) were radiation of pain to the right arm, 2.9 (95% CI 1.4 to 6.3), male sex 1.2 (95% CI 1.0 to 1.3) and female sex 0.79 (95% CI 0.62 to 1.0). The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve for age was 0.629 (95% CI 0.573 to 0.686) and for duration was 0.546 (95% CI 0.481 to 0.610). CONCLUSION: Clinical features have very limited value for diagnosing ACS in patients with a normal or non-diagnostic ECG. Radiation of pain to the right arm increases the likelihood of ACS.

Magnesium sulphate in the treatment of acute asthma: evaluation of current practice in adult emergency departments.

BACKGROUND: A recent meta-analysis showed that intravenous and nebulised magnesium sulphate have similar levels of evidence to support their use in the treatment of acute asthma in adults. This consisted of weak evidence of effect on respiratory function and hospital admissions, with wide confidence intervals ranging from no effect to significant positive effects. Current BTS/SIGN guidelines suggest an equivocal role for intravenous magnesium sulphate and no role for nebulised magnesium sulphate. A study was performed to assess what emergency physicians currently do in their management of acute asthma. METHOD: A postal survey was undertaken of all adult emergency departments within the UK. A structured questionnaire was sent to all clinical leads in emergency medicine about their current usage of both intravenous and nebulised magnesium sulphate in the treatment of acute asthma. RESULTS: 180 of the 251 emergency departments in the UK responded (72%). Magnesium sulphate was used in 93%, mostly because it was expected to relieve breathlessness (70%) or reduce HDU/ITU admissions (51%). It was predominantly given to those patients with acute severe asthma (84%) and life-threatening exacerbations (87%), with most stating they would give the drug if there was no response to repeated nebulisers (68%). In comparison, nebulised magnesium sulphate was only used in two emergency departments (1%). The main reason for not administering the drug via a nebuliser was insufficient evidence (51%). CONCLUSIONS: Intravenous magnesium sulphate is widely used for acute asthma, usually for patients with severe or life-threatening asthma who have not responded to initial treatment. Nebulised magnesium sulphate, by contrast, is hardly used at all. The use of intravenous magnesium sulphate is more extensive than current guidelines or available evidence would appear to support.

A multicentre randomised controlled trial of the use of continuous positive airway pressure and non-invasive positive pressure ventilation in the early treatment of patients presenting to the emergency department with severe acute cardiogenic pulmonary oedema: the 3CPO trial.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether non-invasive ventilation reduces mortality and whether there are important differences in outcome by treatment modality. DESIGN: Multicentre open prospective randomised controlled trial. SETTING: Patients presenting with severe acute cardiogenic pulmonary oedema in 26 emergency departments in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: Inclusion criteria were age > 16 years, clinical diagnosis of acute cardiogenic pulmonary oedema, pulmonary oedema on chest radiograph, respiratory rate > 20 breaths per minute, and arterial hydrogen ion concentration > 45 nmol/l (pH < 7.35). INTERVENTIONS: Patients were randomised to standard oxygen therapy, continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) (5-15 cmH2O) or non-invasive positive pressure ventilation (NIPPV) (inspiratory pressure 8-20 cmH2O, expiratory pressure 4-10 cmH2O) on a 1:1:1 basis for a minimum of 2 hours. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary end point for the comparison between NIPPV or CPAP and standard therapy was 7-day mortality. The composite primary end point for the comparison of NIPPV and CPAP was 7-day mortality and tracheal intubation rate. Secondary end points were breathlessness, physiological variables, intubation rate, length of hospital stay and critical care admission rate. Economic evaluation took the form of a cost-utility analysis, taken from an NHS (and personal social services) perspective. RESULTS: In total, 1069 patients [mean age 78 (SD 10) years; 43% male] were recruited to standard therapy (n = 367), CPAP [n = 346; mean 10 (SD 4) cmH2O] or NIPPV [n = 356; mean 14 (SD 5)/7 (SD 2) cmH2O]. There was no difference in 7-day mortality for standard oxygen therapy (9.8%) and non-invasive ventilation (9.5%; p = 0.87). The combined end point of 7-day death and intubation rate was similar, irrespective of non-invasive ventilation modality (CPAP 11.7% versus NIPPV 11.1%; p = 0.81). Compared with standard therapy, non-invasive ventilation was associated with greater reductions (treatment difference, 95% confidence intervals) in breathlessness (visual analogue scale score 0.7, 0.2-1.3; p = 0.008) and heart rate (4/min, 1-6; p = 0.004) and improvement in acidosis (pH 0.03, 0.02-0.04; p < 0.001) and hypercapnia (0.7 kPa, 0.4-0.9; p < 0.001) at 1 hour. There were no treatment-related adverse events or differences in other secondary outcomes such as myocardial infarction rate, length of hospital stay, critical care admission rate and requirement for endotracheal intubation. Economic evaluation showed that mean costs and QALYs up to 6 months were 3023 pounds and 0.202 for standard therapy, 3224 pounds and 0.213 for CPAP, and 3208 pounds and 0.210 for NIPPV. Modelling of lifetime costs and QALYs produced values of 15,764 pounds and 1.597 for standard therapy, 17,525 pounds and 1.841 for CPAP, and 17,021 pounds and 1.707 for NIPPV. These results suggest that both CPAP and NIPPV accrue more QALYs but at higher cost than standard therapy. However, these estimates are subject to substantial uncertainty. CONCLUSIONS: Non-invasive ventilatory support delivered by either CPAP or NIPPV safely provides earlier improvement and resolution of breathlessness, respiratory distress and metabolic abnormality. However, this does not translate into improved short- or longer-term survival. We recommend that CPAP or NIPPV should be considered as adjunctive therapy in patients with severe acute cardiogenic pulmonary oedema in the presence of severe respiratory distress or when there is a failure to improve with pharmacological therapy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN07448447.