Genetic Correlates of Biological Aging and the Influence on Prediction of Mortality.

Longevity and disease-free survival are influenced by a combination of genetics and lifestyle. Biological age (BioAge), a measure of aging based on composite biomarkers, may outperform chronological age in predicting health and longevity. This study investigated the relationship between genetic risks, lifestyle factors, and delta age (Δage), estimated as the difference between biological and chronological age. BioAge and Δage were calculated for 52 418 participants from the population-based Lifelines cohort. We computed 2 independent polygenic risk scores (PRS) for health span and DNA methylation-based aging clock to characterize genetic risks. The capacity of BioAge to predict all-cause mortality when adjusted for chronological age and genetic risks for aging, was assessed. Obesity, lifestyle, socioeconomic status, sex, and genetic variations in a population contributed to the differences in the rates of accelerated aging. The overall risk of death for a 1-year increase in BioAge for a given chronological age and sex among the genotyped participants was 11% (HR = 1.11; 95% CI: 1.09, 1.13). After adjusting for genetic factors, BioAge maintained its sensitivity for predicting mortality. Findings from this study ascertain that BioAge can be a useful tool for risk stratification in research and aging interventions.

A pan-influenza monoclonal antibody neutralizes H5 strains and prophylactically protects through intranasal administration.

Avian A(H5N1) influenza virus poses an elevated zoonotic threat to humans, and no pharmacological products are currently registered for fast-acting pre-exposure protection in case of spillover leading to a pandemic. Here, we show that an epitope on the stem domain of H5 hemagglutinin is highly conserved and that the human monoclonal antibody CR9114, targeting that epitope, potently neutralizes all pseudotyped H5 viruses tested, even in the rare case of substitutions in its epitope. Further, intranasal administration of CR9114 fully protects mice against A(H5N1) infection at low dosages, irrespective of pre-existing immunity conferred by the quadrivalent seasonal influenza vaccine. These data provide a proof-of-concept for broad, pre-exposure protection against a potential future pandemic using the intranasal administration route. Studies in humans should assess if autonomous administration of a broadly-neutralizing monoclonal antibody is safe and effective and can thus contribute to pandemic preparedness.

SARS-CoV-2 elicits non-sterilizing immunity and evades vaccine-induced immunity: implications for future vaccination strategies.

Neither vaccination nor natural infection result in long-lasting protection against SARS-COV-2 infection and transmission, but both reduce the risk of severe COVID-19. To generate insights into optimal vaccination strategies for prevention of severe COVID-19 in the population, we extended a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) mathematical model to compare the impact of vaccines that are highly protective against severe COVID-19 but not against infection and transmission, with those that block SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our analysis shows that vaccination strategies focusing on the prevention of severe COVID-19 are more effective than those focusing on creating of herd immunity. Key uncertainties that would affect the choice of vaccination strategies are: (1) the duration of protection against severe disease, (2) the protection against severe disease from variants that escape vaccine-induced immunity, (3) the incidence of long-COVID and level of protection provided by the vaccine, and (4) the rate of serious adverse events following vaccination, stratified by demographic variables.

Exploring the Role of Antiviral Nasal Sprays in the Control of Emerging Respiratory Infections in the Community.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated that there is an unmet need for the development of novel prophylactic antiviral treatments to control the outbreak of emerging respiratory virus infections. Passive antibody-based immunisation approaches such as intranasal antibody prophylaxis have the potential to provide immediately accessible universal protection as they act directly at the most common route of viral entry, the upper respiratory tract. The need for such products is very apparent for SARS-CoV-2 at present, given the relatively low effectiveness of vaccines to prevent infection and block virus onward transmission. We explore the benefits and challenges of the use of antibody-based nasal sprays prior and post exposure to the virus. METHODS: The classic susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) mathematical model was extended to describe the potential population-level impact of intranasal antibody prophylaxis on controlling the spread of an emerging respiratory infection in the community. RESULTS: Intranasal administration of monoclonal antibodies provides only a short-term protection to the mucosal surface. Consequently, sustained intranasal antibody prophylaxis of a substantial proportion of the population would be needed to contain infections. Post-exposure prophylaxis against the development of severe disease would be essential for the overall reduction in hospital admissions. CONCLUSION: Antibody-based nasal sprays could provide protection against infection to individuals that are likely to be exposed to the virus. Large-scale administration for a long period of time would be challenging. Intranasal antibody prophylaxis alone cannot prevent community-wide transmission of the virus. It could be used along with other protective measures, such as non-pharmaceutical interventions, to bridge the time required to develop and produce effective vaccines, and complement active immunisation strategies.

Biological Aging for Risk Prediction of First-Ever Intracerebral Hemorrhage and Cerebral Infarction in Advanced Age.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: successful interventions to prevent cerebrovascular disease and stroke require early identification of persons at risk before clinical manifestation of disease. The literature remains to be sparse on accessible plasma-based biomarkers for monitoring brain health and cerebrovascular disease in advanced age. We assessed the predictive value of biological age (BA) as an early indicator for cerebrovascular disease and risk of first-ever intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and cerebral infarction (CI) in advanced age and compared these relationships with chronological age (CA) and commonly used biomarkers including tau and Aß40 and Aß42. METHODS: The study included Individuals who consented for blood draw and follow-up. We computed biological age using structural equation modelling. The criteria for the biomarkers included their representability of the various body systems; their availability in the Rotterdam study and their pre-hypothesized reflection of aging in other populations. The algorithm integrates biomarkers that represent six body systems involved in overall cerebrovascular health including metabolic function, cardiac function, lung function, kidney function, liver function, immunity, and inflammation. Time to event analysis was conducted using Cox-regression models. Prediction analysis was conducted using Harrel's C and Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: The sample included a total of 1699 individuals at baseline followed up over a median of 11 years. During a period of 15, 780 and 16, 172 person-years, a total of 17 first-ever intracerebral hemorrhage and 83 cerebral infarction cases occurred. In time-to-event analysis, BA showed higher magnitude of associations with ICH compared to CA (HRBA-ICH: 2.30, 95% CI: 1.20, 4.30; HRCA-ICH: 1.40, 95% CI: 0.76, 2.53) and higher precision with CI (HRBA-CI: 1.30, 95% CI: 1.01,1.75; HRCA-CI:1.90, 95% CI: 1.48, 2.66). BA outperformed CA for prediction of ICH (AUC: 0.68 vs 0.53; Harrel's C: 0.72 vs 0.53) and for CI (AUC:0.63 vs 0.62; Harrel's C: 0.68 vs 0.67). CONCLUSIONS: Biological aging (delta biological aging) based on integrated physiology biomarkers provides a novel tool for monitoring and identification of persons at highest risk of cerebrovascular disease in advanced age with varying degrees of precision and magnitude for stroke subtypes. These variations are likely related to differences in pathophysiology of intracerebral hemorrhage and cerebral infarction. Wider validation and applicability require extension of these findings in other comparable samples and in clinical settings.

Biological age in healthy elderly predicts aging-related diseases including dementia.

Application of biological age as a measure of an individual´s health status offers new perspectives into extension of both lifespan and healthspan. While algorithms predicting mortality and most aging-related morbidities have been reported, the major shortcoming has been an inability to predict dementia. We present a community-based cohort study of 1930 participants with a mean age of 72 years and a follow-up period of over 7 years, using two variants of a phenotypic blood-based algorithm that either excludes (BioAge1) or includes (BioAge2) neurofilament light chain (NfL) as a neurodegenerative marker. BioAge1 and BioAge2 predict dementia equally well, as well as lifespan and healthspan. Each one-year increase in BioAge1/2 was associated with 11% elevated risk (HR 1.11; 95%CI 1.08-1.14) of mortality and 7% elevated risk (HR 1.07; 95%CI 1.05-1.09) of first morbidities. We additionally tested the association of microRNAs with age and identified 263 microRNAs significantly associated with biological and chronological age alike. Top differentially expressed microRNAs based on biological age had a higher significance level than those based on chronological age, suggesting that biological age captures aspects of aging signals at the epigenetic level. We conclude that accelerated biological age for a given age is a predictor of major age-related morbidity, including dementia, among healthy elderly.

Immune age and biological age as determinants of vaccine responsiveness among elderly populations: the Human Immunomics Initiative research program.

The Human Immunomics Initiative (HII), a joint project between the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and the Human Vaccines Project (HVP), focuses on studying immunity and the predictability of immuneresponsiveness to vaccines in aging populations. This paper describes the hypotheses and methodological approaches of this new collaborative initiative. Central to our thinking is the idea that predictors of age-related non-communicable diseases are the same as predictors for infectious diseases like COVID-19 and influenza. Fundamental to our approach is to differentiate between chronological, biological and immune age, and to use existing large-scale population cohorts. The latter provide well-typed phenotypic data on individuals' health status over time, readouts of routine clinical biochemical biomarkers to determine biological age, and bio-banked plasma samples to deep phenotype humoral immune responses as biomarkers of immune age. The first phase of the program involves 1. the exploration of biological age, humoral biomarkers of immune age, and genetics in a large multigenerational cohort, and 2. the subsequent development of models of immunity in relation to health status in a second, prospective cohort of an aging population. In the second phase, vaccine responses and efficacy of licensed COVID-19 vaccines in the presence and absence of influenza-, pneumococcal- and pertussis vaccines routinely offered to elderly, will be studied in older aged participants of prospective population-based cohorts in different geographical locations who will be selected for representing distinct biological and immune ages. The HII research program is aimed at relating vaccine responsiveness to biological and immune age, and identifying aging-related pathways crucial to enhance vaccine effectiveness in aging populations.

Lower complexity and higher variability in beat-to-beat systolic blood pressure are associated with elevated long-term risk of dementia: The Rotterdam Study.

INTRODUCTION: We hypothesized that subclinical disruption in blood pressure (BP) dynamics, captured by lower complexity and higher variability, may contribute to dementia risk, above and beyond BP levels. METHODS: This prospective cohort study followed 1835 older adults from 1997 to 2016, with BP complexity quantified by sample entropy and BP variability quantified by coefficient of variation using beat-to-beat BP measured at baseline. RESULTS: Three hundred thirty-four participants developed dementia over 20 years. Reduced systolic BP (SBP) complexity was associated with a higher risk of dementia (hazard ratio [HR] comparing extreme quintiles: 1.55; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09-2.20). Higher SBP variability was also associated with a higher risk of dementia (HR comparing extreme quintiles: 1.57; 95% CI: 1.11-2.22. These findings were observed after adjusting for age, sex, apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype, mean SBP, and other confounding factors. DISCUSSIONS: Our findings suggest that lower complexity and higher variability of beat-to-beat SBP are potential novel risk factors or biomarkers for dementia.

External validity of phase III trials on vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 to a middle-aged and elderly Western European population.

Initial results from various phase-III trials on vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 are promising. For proper translation of these results to clinical guidelines, it is essential to determine how well the general population is reflected in the study populations of these trials. This study was conducted among 7162 participants (age-range: 51-106 years; 58% women) from the Rotterdam Study. We quantified the proportion of participants that would be eligible for the nine ongoing phase-III trials. We further quantified the eligibility among participants at high risk to develop severe COVID-19. Since many trials were not explicit in their exclusion criterion with respect to 'acute' or 'unstable preexisting' diseases, we performed two analyses. First, we included all participants irrespective of this criterion. Second, we excluded persons with acute or 'unstable preexisting' diseases. 97% of 7162 participants was eligible for any trial with eligibility for separate trials ranging between 11-97%. For high-risk individuals the corresponding numbers were 96% for any trial with separate trials ranging from 5-96%. Importantly, considering persons ineligible due to 'acute' or 'unstable pre-existing' disease drastically dropped the eligibilities for all trials below 43% for the total population and below 36% for high-risk individuals. The eligibility for ongoing vaccine trials against SARS-CoV-2 can reduce by half depending on interpretation and application of a single unspecified exclusion criterion. This exclusion criterion in our study would especially affect the elderly and those with pre-existing morbidities. These findings thus indicate the difficulty as well as importance of developing clinical recommendations for vaccination and applying these to the appropriate target populations. This becomes especially paramount considering the fact that many countries worldwide have initiated their vaccination programs by first targeting the elderly and most vulnerable persons.

Development and deployment of COVID-19 vaccines for those most vulnerable.

Development of safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines is a global priority and the best hope for ending the COVID-19 pandemic. Remarkably, in less than 1 year, vaccines have been developed and shown to be efficacious and are already being deployed worldwide. Yet, many challenges remain. Immune senescence and comorbidities in aging populations and immune dysregulation in populations living in low-resource settings may impede vaccine effectiveness. Distribution of vaccines among these populations where vaccine access is historically low remains challenging. In this Review, we address these challenges and provide strategies for ensuring that vaccines are developed and deployed for those most vulnerable.

Dissecting strategies to tune the therapeutic potential of SARS-CoV-2-specific monoclonal antibody CR3022.

The rapid spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), coupled with a lack of therapeutics, has paralyzed the globe. Although significant effort has been invested in identifying antibodies that block infection, the ability of antibodies to target infected cells through Fc interactions may be vital to eliminate the virus. To explore the role of Fc activity in SARS-CoV-2 immunity, the functional potential of a cross-SARS-reactive antibody, CR3022, was assessed. CR3022 was able to broadly drive antibody effector functions, providing critical immune clearance at entry and upon egress. Using selectively engineered Fc variants, no protection was observed after administration of WT IgG1 in mice or hamsters. Conversely, the functionally enhanced Fc variant resulted in increased pathology in both the mouse and hamster models, causing weight loss in mice and enhanced viral replication and weight loss in the more susceptible hamster model, highlighting the pathological functions of Fc-enhancing mutations. These data point to the critical need for strategic Fc engineering for the treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Twenty-seven-year time trends in dementia incidence in Europe and the United States: The Alzheimer Cohorts Consortium.

OBJECTIVE: To determine changes in the incidence of dementia between 1988 and 2015. METHODS: This analysis was performed in aggregated data from individuals >65 years of age in 7 population-based cohort studies in the United States and Europe from the Alzheimer Cohort Consortium. First, we calculated age- and sex-specific incidence rates for all-cause dementia, and then defined nonoverlapping 5-year epochs within each study to determine trends in incidence. Estimates of change per 10-year interval were pooled and results are presented combined and stratified by sex. RESULTS: Of 49,202 individuals, 4,253 (8.6%) developed dementia. The incidence rate of dementia increased with age, similarly for women and men, ranging from about 4 per 1,000 person-years in individuals aged 65-69 years to 65 per 1,000 person-years for those aged 85-89 years. The incidence rate of dementia declined by 13% per calendar decade (95% confidence interval [CI], 7%-19%), consistently across studies, and somewhat more pronouncedly in men than in women (24% [95% CI 14%-32%] vs 8% [0%-15%]). CONCLUSION: The incidence rate of dementia in Europe and North America has declined by 13% per decade over the past 25 years, consistently across studies. Incidence is similar for men and women, although declines were somewhat more profound in men. These observations call for sustained efforts to finding the causes for this decline, as well as determining their validity in geographically and ethnically diverse populations.

Plasma tau, neurofilament light chain and amyloid-ß levels and risk of dementia; a population-based cohort study.

CSF biomarkers, including total-tau, neurofilament light chain (NfL) and amyloid-ß, are increasingly being used to define and stage Alzheimer's disease. These biomarkers can be measured more quickly and less invasively in plasma and may provide important information for early diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease. We used stored plasma samples and clinical data obtained from 4444 non-demented participants in the Rotterdam study at baseline (between 2002 and 2005) and during follow-up until January 2016. Plasma concentrations of total-tau, NfL, amyloid-ß40 and amyloid-ß42 were measured using the Simoa NF-light® and N3PA assays. Associations between biomarker plasma levels and incident all-cause and Alzheimer's disease dementia during follow-up were assessed using Cox proportional-hazard regression models adjusted for age, sex, education, cardiovascular risk factors and APOE ε4 status. Moreover, biomarker plasma levels and rates of change over time of participants who developed Alzheimer's disease dementia during follow-up were compared with age and sex-matched dementia-free control subjects. During up to 14 years follow-up, 549 participants developed dementia, including 374 cases with Alzheimer's disease dementia. A log2 higher baseline amyloid-ß42 plasma level was associated with a lower risk of developing all-cause or Alzheimer's disease dementia, adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.61 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.47-0.78; P < 0.0001] and 0.59 (95% CI, 0.43-0.79; P = 0.0006), respectively. Conversely, a log2 higher baseline plasma NfL level was associated with a higher risk of all-cause dementia [adjusted HR 1.59 (95% CI, 1.38-1.83); P < 0.0001] or Alzheimer's disease [adjusted HR 1.50 (95% CI, 1.26-1.78); P < 0.0001]. Combining the lowest quartile group of amyloid-ß42 with the highest of NfL resulted in a stronger association with all-cause dementia [adjusted HR 9.5 (95% CI, 2.3-40.4); P < 0.002] and with Alzheimer's disease [adjusted HR 15.7 (95% CI, 2.1-117.4); P < 0.0001], compared to the highest quartile group of amyloid-ß42 and lowest of NfL. Total-tau and amyloid-ß40 levels were not associated with all-cause or Alzheimer's disease dementia risk. Trajectory analyses of biomarkers revealed that mean NfL plasma levels increased 3.4 times faster in participants who developed Alzheimer's disease compared to those who remained dementia-free (P < 0.0001), plasma values for cases diverged from controls 9.6 years before Alzheimer's disease diagnosis. Amyloid-ß42 levels began to decrease in Alzheimer's disease cases a few years before diagnosis, although the decline did not reach significance compared to dementia-free participants. In conclusion, our study shows that low amyloid-ß42 and high NfL plasma levels are each independently and in combination strongly associated with risk of all-cause and Alzheimer's disease dementia. These data indicate that plasma NfL and amyloid-ß42 levels can be used to assess the risk of developing dementia in a non-demented population. Plasma NfL levels, although not specific, may also be useful in monitoring progression of Alzheimer's disease dementia.

Quantification of biological age as a determinant of age-related diseases in the Rotterdam Study: a structural equation modeling approach.

Chronological age alone is not a sufficient measure of the true physiological state of the body. The aims of the present study were to: (1) quantify biological age based on a physiological biomarker composite model; (2) and evaluate its association with death and age-related disease onset in the setting of an elderly population. Using structural equation modeling we computed biological age for 1699 individuals recruited from the first and second waves of the Rotterdam study. The algorithm included nine physiological parameters (c-reactive protein, creatinine, albumin, total cholesterol, cytomegalovirus optical density, urea nitrogen, alkaline phosphatase, forced expiratory volume and systolic blood pressure). We assessed the association between biological age, all-cause mortality, all-cause morbidity and specific age-related diseases over a median follow-up of 11 years. Biological age, compared to chronological age or the traditional biomarkers of age-related diseases, showed a stronger association with all-cause mortality (HR 1.15 vs. 1.13 and 1.10), all-cause morbidity (HR 1.06 vs. 1.05 and 1.03), stroke (HR 1.17 vs. 1.08 and 1.04), cancer (HR 1.07 vs. 1.04 and 1.02) and diabetes mellitus (HR 1.12 vs. 1.01 and 0.98). Individuals who were biologically younger exhibited a healthier life-style as reflected in their lower BMI (P < 0.001) and lower incidence of stroke (P < 0.001), cancer (P < 0.01) and diabetes mellitus (P = 0.02). Collectively, our findings suggest that biological age based on the biomarker composite model of nine physiological parameters is a useful construct to assess individuals 65 years and older at increased risk for specific age-related diseases.

A small-molecule fusion inhibitor of influenza virus is orally active in mice.

Recent characterization of broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) against influenza virus identified the conserved hemagglutinin (HA) stem as a target for development of universal vaccines and therapeutics. Although several stem bnAbs are being evaluated in clinical trials, antibodies are generally unsuited for oral delivery. Guided by structural knowledge of the interactions and mechanism of anti-stem bnAb CR6261, we selected and optimized small molecules that mimic the bnAb functionality. Our lead compound neutralizes influenza A group 1 viruses by inhibiting HA-mediated fusion in vitro, protects mice against lethal and sublethal influenza challenge after oral administration, and effectively neutralizes virus infection in reconstituted three-dimensional cell culture of fully differentiated human bronchial epithelial cells. Cocrystal structures with H1 and H5 HAs reveal that the lead compound recapitulates the bnAb hotspot interactions.

Naturally occurring antibodies isolated from PD patients inhibit synuclein seeding in vitro and recognize Lewy pathology.

Deposition of α-synuclein into Lewy bodies and Lewy neurites is the hallmark of Parkinson's disease (PD). It is hypothesized that α-synuclein pathology spreads by a "prion-like" mechanism (i.e., by seeded aggregation or templated misfolding). Therefore, various extracellular α-synuclein conformers and/or posttranslational modifications may serve as biomarkers of disease or potential targets for novel interventions. To explore whether the antibody repertoires of PD patients contain anti-α-synuclein antibodies that can potentially be used as markers or immunotherapy, we interrogated peripheral IgG+ memory B cells from PD patients for reactivity to α-synuclein. In total, ten somatically mutated antibodies were recovered, suggesting the presence of an ongoing antigen-driven immune response. The three antibodies that had the highest affinity to recombinant full-length α-synuclein, aSyn-323.1, aSyn-336.1 and aSyn-338.1, were characterized further and shown to recognize epitopes in the C terminus of α-synuclein with binding affinities between 0.3 and 2.8 µM. Furthermore, all three antibodies were able to neutralize the "seeding" of intracellular synuclein aggregates in an in vitro α-synuclein seeding assay. Finally, differential reactivities were observed for all three human anti-α-synuclein antibodies across tissue treatment conditions by immunohistochemistry. Our results suggest that the memory B-cell repertoire of PD patients might represent a potential source of biomarkers and therapies.

Structural Basis for Recognition of a Unique Epitope by a Human Anti-tau Antibody.

Aggregation of the hyperphosphorylated protein tau into neurofibrillary tangles and neuropil threads is a hallmark of Alzheimer disease (AD). Identification and characterization of the epitopes recognized by anti-tau antibodies might shed light on the molecular mechanisms of AD pathogenesis. Here we report on the biochemical and structural characterization of a tau-specific monoclonal antibody CBTAU-24.1, which was isolated from the human memory B cell repertoire. Immunohistochemical staining with CBTAU-24.1 specifically detects pathological tau structures in AD brain samples. The crystal structure of CBTAU-24.1 Fab with a phosphorylated tau peptide revealed recognition of a unique epitope (Ser235-Leu243) in the tau proline-rich domain. Interestingly, the antibody can bind tau regardless of phosphorylation state of its epitope region and also recognizes both monomeric and paired helical filament tau irrespective of phosphorylation status. This human anti-tau antibody and its unique epitope may aid in development of diagnostics and/or therapeutic AD strategies.

A common antigenic motif recognized by naturally occurring human VH5-51/VL4-1 anti-tau antibodies with distinct functionalities.

Misfolding and aggregation of tau protein are closely associated with the onset and progression of Alzheimer's Disease (AD). By interrogating IgG+ memory B cells from asymptomatic donors with tau peptides, we have identified two somatically mutated VH5-51/VL4-1 antibodies. One of these, CBTAU-27.1, binds to the aggregation motif in the R3 repeat domain and blocks the aggregation of tau into paired helical filaments (PHFs) by sequestering monomeric tau. The other, CBTAU-28.1, binds to the N-terminal insert region and inhibits the spreading of tau seeds and mediates the uptake of tau aggregates into microglia by binding PHFs. Crystal structures revealed that the combination of VH5-51 and VL4-1 recognizes a common Pro-Xn-Lys motif driven by germline-encoded hotspot interactions while the specificity and thereby functionality of the antibodies are defined by the CDR3 regions. Affinity improvement led to improvement in functionality, identifying their epitopes as new targets for therapy and prevention of AD.

Temporal association patterns and dynamics of amyloid-ß and tau in Alzheimer's disease.

The elusive relationship between underlying pathology and clinical disease hampers diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and preventative intervention development. We seek to understand the relationship between two classical AD biomarkers, amyloid-ß1-42 (Aß1-42) and total-tau (t-tau), and define their trajectories across disease development, as defined by disease onset at diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Using longitudinal data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), we performed a correlation analysis of biomarkers CSF Aß1-42 and t-tau, and longitudinal quantile analysis. Using a mixed effects model, with MCI onset as an anchor, we develop linear trajectories to describe the rate of change across disease development. These trajectories were extended through the incorporation of data from cognitively normal, healthy adults (aged 20-62 years) from the literature, to fit sigmoid curves by means of non-linear least squares estimators, to create curves encompassing the 50 years prior to MCI onset. A strong right-angled relationship between the biomarkers Aß1-42 and t-tau is detected, implying a highly non-linear relationship. The rate of change of Aß1-42 is correlated with the baseline concentration per quantile, reflecting a reduction in the rate of loss across disease within subjects. Regression models reveal significant amyloid loss relative to MCI onset (- 2.35 pg/mL/year), compared to minimal loss relative to AD onset (- 0.97 pg/mL/year). Tau accumulates consistently relative to MCI and AD onset, (2.05 pg/mL/year) and (2.46 pg/mL/year), respectively. The fitted amyloid curve shows peak loss of amyloid 8.06 years prior to MCI diagnosis, while t-tau exhibits peak accumulation 14.17 years following MCI diagnosis, with the upper limit not yet reached 30 years post diagnosis. Biomarker trajectories aid unbiased, objective assessment of disease progression. Quantitative trajectories are likely to be of use in clinical trial design, as they allow for a more detailed insight into the effectiveness of treatments designed to delay development of biological disease.