Bi-Gaussian analysis reveals distinct education-related alterations in spherical equivalent and axial length-results from the Gutenberg Health Study.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study is to investigate the distribution of spherical equivalent and axial length in the general population and to analyze the influence of education on spherical equivalent with a focus on ocular biometric parameters. METHODS: The Gutenberg Health Study is a population-based cohort study in Mainz, Germany. Participants underwent comprehensive ophthalmologic examinations as part of the 5-year follow-up examination in 2012-2017 including genotyping. The spherical equivalent and axial length distributions were modeled with gaussian mixture models. Regression analysis (on person-individual level) was performed to analyze associations between biometric parameters and educational factors. Mendelian randomization analysis explored the causal effect between spherical equivalent, axial length, and education. Additionally, effect mediation analysis examined the link between spherical equivalent and education. RESULTS: A total of 8532 study participants were included (median age: 57 years, 49% female). The distribution of spherical equivalent and axial length follows a bi-Gaussian function, partially explained by the length of education (i.e., < 11 years education vs. 11-20 years). Mendelian randomization indicated an effect of education on refractive error using a genetic risk score of education as an instrument variable (- 0.35 diopters per SD increase in the instrument, 95% CI, - 0.64-0.05, p = 0.02) and an effect of education on axial length (0.63 mm per SD increase in the instrument, 95% CI, 0.22-1.04, p = 0.003). Spherical equivalent, axial length and anterior chamber depth were associated with length of education in regression analyses. Mediation analysis revealed that the association between spherical equivalent and education is mainly driven (70%) by alteration in axial length. CONCLUSIONS: The distribution of axial length and spherical equivalent is represented by subgroups of the population (bi-Gaussian). This distribution can be partially explained by length of education. The impact of education on spherical equivalent is mainly driven by alteration in axial length.

Systemic Diseases in Primary Open-Angle Glaucoma. / Internistische Erkrankungen und Zusammenhang mit dem primären Offenwinkelglaukom.

Primary open-angle glaucoma is a neurodegenerative disease with progressive chronic optic neuropathy and corresponding visual field defects. In this literature review, we discuss systemic diseases and their mechanism for developing glaucoma, including systemic hypertension and hypotension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, obstructive sleep apnoea syndrome, chronic kidney disease, migraine, and polypharmacy.

Prevalence of Herpes Simplex and Varicella-Zoster Virus DNA in Corneal Grafts Is Higher than Expected.

PURPOSE: (1) To determine the prevalence of herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) and type 2 (HSV-2), varicella-zoster virus (VZV), and cytomegalovirus (CMV) DNA in donor corneas; (2) To evaluate the clinical outcome of the grafts with viral DNA and to compare donors with and without viral DNA. METHODS: We analyzed data from all donors and recipients who underwent penetrating keratoplasty (PK) or Descemet membrane endothelial keratoplasty (DMEK) between September 2022 and March 2023. Donor corneoscleral rims and excised recipients' corneal buttons were tested for the presence of HSV-1, HSV-2, VZV, and CMV DNA by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The results were known 2-3 days after the surgery. We closely followed up on patients whose grafts tested positive for viral DNA. We compared the medical histories of donors with and without viral DNA. RESULTS: We included 85 corneas from 67 donors. Seven (8.2%) donor corneas tested positive for HSV-1 (n = 3) or VZV (n = 4) DNA. We did not detect any HSV-2 or CMV DNA. In the postoperative follow-up of patients with positive PCR, a graft failure was observed in one and infections in two eyes. Re-operation was necessary in three of these cases (42.9%). Patients without herpes DNA in the donor cornea needed reoperation in 7.7% of the cases. Cultural duration, the cause of the donor's death, and the death-to-explantation interval did not differ significantly between donors with and without viral DNA. Additionally, 3 of the 7 (42.9%) donors with positive PCR were in a septic status at the time of death, compared to 21 of the 78 (26.9%) donors with negative PCR (p = 0.52). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of herpes DNA in the donor corneas was 8.2% and thus higher than previously reported. We did not notice any evidence for a donor-to-host transmission, but a higher rate of postoperative complications in recipients of the grafts with viral DNA. The donors with and without herpetic DNA did not differ significantly regarding systemic diagnoses or cultural conditions, but sepsis was more frequent in the group with viral DNA.

Intraocular Pressure and Its Relation to Climate Parameters-Results From the Gutenberg Health Study.

Purpose: To investigate the association between intraocular pressure (IOP) and climate parameters. Methods: The Gutenberg Health Study (GHS) is a population-based cohort study in Mainz, Germany. Participants underwent two comprehensive ophthalmologic examinations (baseline visit and five-year follow up) including non-contact tonometry, objective refraction, pachymetry, perimetry, and fundus imaging in the time frame of 2007 to 2017. The respective climate parameters were assessed at the University Mainz including temperature, air humidity, and air pressure. Associations of IOP and climatic parameters were computed using component models and cross-correlation plots. Multivariable regression analysis was performed to adjust for age, sex, body mass index, diabetes, central corneal thickness, and systolic blood pressure. To further explore the link between systolic blood pressure, temperature, and IOP, an effect mediation analysis was conducted. Results: A total of 14,632 participants (age 55 ± 11 years at baseline, 49.1% female) were included in this analysis. Mean IOP was 14.24 ± 2.8 mm Hg at baseline. There was a similar periodic change in IOP and in temperature, as shown in the component models. IOP was not associated with air humidity. In univariable and multivariable regression analyses we found a significant association between lower IOP during the summer months with higher air temperature (B = -0.011, P < 0.001). This could be partially explained in mediation analysis by lower systolic blood pressure at higher air temperature. Furthermore, IOP was associated with air pressure in univariable (B = 0.005, P = 0.04.) and multivariable models (B = 0.006, P = 0.03). Conclusions: There is a periodic annual change of IOP with higher values in winter and lower values in summer supporting the hypothesis of an impact of environmental temperature on IOP, which is partly mediated by lower systolic blood pressure in summer.

Preoperative Heart Failure Treatment Prevents Postoperative Cardiac Complications in Patients With Lower Risk: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to identify undertreated subgroups of patients with heart failure who would benefit from better perioperative optimization. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Patients with heart failure have increased risks of postoperative cardiac complications after noncardiac surgery. METHODS: In this analysis of hospital registry data of 130,677 patients undergoing noncardiac surgery, the exposure was preoperative history of heart failure. The outcome, cardiac complications, was defined as a composite of myocardial infarction, cardiac arrest, acute heart failure, and mortality within 30 postoperative days. RESULTS: History of heart failure (n = 10,256; 7.9%) was associated with increased risk of cardiac complications [8.1% vs 1.1%; adjusted odds ratio, 2.28 (95% CI, 2.02-2.56); P < 0.001). Patients with heart failure and who carried a lower risk profile had increased risks of postoperative cardiac complications secondary to heart failure [adjusted absolute risk difference, 1.7% (95% CI, 1.4%-2.0%, lower risk); P < 0.001 vs 0.5% (95% CI, -0.6% to 1.6%, higher risk); P = 0.38]. Patients with heart failure and lower risk received a lower level of health care utilization preoperatively, and less frequently received anti-heart failure medications (59% vs 72% and 61% vs 82%; both P < 0.001). These preventive therapies significantly decreased the risk of cardiac complications in patients with heart failure. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with heart failure who have a lower preoperative risk profile, clinicians often make insufficient attempts to optimize their clinical condition preoperatively. Preoperative preventive treatment reduces the risk of postoperative cardiac complications in these lower-risk patients with heart failure.

A lower birth weight percentile is associated with central corneal thickness thinning: Results from the Gutenberg Prematurity Eye Study (GPES).

PURPOSE: Prematurity, prenatal growth restriction, and retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) are associated with altered ocular geometry, such as a steeper corneal shape in childhood, but it is unclear whether perinatal history affects corneal thickness development, so this study investigated whether corneal thickness in adulthood is affected by perinatal history. MARTERIALS AND METHODS: The Gutenberg Prematurity Eye Study (GPES) is a retrospective cohort study with a prospective ophthalmologic examination in Germany. The corneal thickness was measured by Scheimpflug imaging (Pentacam HR, Oculus Optikgeräte GmbH, Wetzlar, Germany), and the relationship between perinatal parameters respective birth weight percentile and corneal thickness at different locations was assessed using uni- and multivariable linear regression models. Covariates included age, sex, mean corneal radius, white-to-white distance, gestational age, birth weight percentile, ROP occurrence, and treatment. The main outcome measures were corneal thickness at the apex, the pupil center, and the corneal periphery. RESULTS: The corneal thickness was measured in 390 participants (754 eyes, mean age 29.7+/-8.7 years, 224 females). In multivariable analyses, a lower birth weight percentile was associated with a lower corneal thickness at the apex (B = 0.20, p = 0.003) and the pupil (B = 0.19, p = 0.007). These effects diminished towards the corneal periphery and were not observed beyond the 4-mm diameter circle around the thinnest corneal position. Neither gestational age, ROP occurrence, or ROP treatment affected the corneal thickness. CONCLUSION: A lower birth weight percentile in subjects born preterm as a proxy for restricted fetal growth is associated with corneal thickness thinning in adults aged 18 to 52 years, indicating that corneal thickness development, particularly in the corneal center, may originate in the fetal stage.

Adults Born Small for Gestational Age at Term Have Thinner Peripapillary Retinal Nerve Fiber Layers Than Controls.

Purpose: Prenatal growth restriction is associated with impaired neurodevelopment in childhood. This study investigated the effects of being born small for gestational age (SGA) on peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (pRNFL) thickness in adults born at term. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted with a prospective ophthalmologic examination of participants born at full-term (gestational age ≥37 weeks) between 1969 and 2002. All participants were examined with spectral-domain optical coherence tomography and grouped according to their birth weight in correlation to gestational age as former moderate (birth weight (BW) percentile 3rd to <10th) and severe SGA (<3rd percentile), normal (10th-90th percentile, AGA), and moderately (>90th to 97th percentile) and severely (>97th percentile) large for gestational age (LGA) adults (18 to 52 years). Results: Overall, 547 eyes of 285 individuals (age 29.9±9.4 years, 151 females) born at term were included. Multivariable regression analyses revealed a strong association between a lower global pRNFL thickness in the severe SGA (B=-8.99 [95%-CI: -12.68; -5.30] µm; p<0.001) and in the moderate SGA groups (B=-6.40 [95%-CI: -10.29; -2.50] µm; p=0.001) compared to the reference AGA group. Conclusion: Our results indicate that restricted fetal growth affects neurologic tissue development of the optic nerve head, particularly in individuals born severely SGA at term. This indicates that fetal growth restriction may exert disturbances in the development of neurologic tissue, which persists in adulthood.

Distribution of Pupil Size and Associated Factors: Results from the Population-Based Gutenberg Health Study.

Results: 18,335 eyes of 9,559 participants aged 40 to 80 years were included in the analysis. Median pupil diameter was 4.19 mm in right eyes and 4.12 mm in left eyes. A smaller pupil was associated with older age, hyperopic refractive error, previous cataract surgery, diabetes, obesity, and ACE inhibitor intake, whereas wider pupil was associated with female gender, arterial hypertension, intake of tricyclic antidepressants, and intake of SNRI and tetracyclic antidepressants. Socioeconomic status and smoking were not associated with pupil size. Conclusion: Individuals of older age, after cataract surgery, under therapy with ACE inhibitors and with diabetes have a smaller pupil. This should be taken into account when planning nonmydriatic fundus photography-based screening programs, for instance, for diabetic retinopathy.

Foveal and Peripapillary Choroidal Thickness in Adults Born Extremely, Very, and Moderately Preterm With and Without ROP-Results From the Gutenberg Prematurity Eye Study.

Purpose: The present study investigated the long-lasting effect of prematurity, prenatal growth restriction, and associated factors on foveal and peripapillary choroidal thickness in adulthood. Methods: The Gutenberg Prematurity Eye Study (GPES) is a retrospective cohort study with a prospective ophthalmologic examination in Germany. Foveal and peripapillary choroidal thicknesses were measured at different sectors using spectral-domain optical coherence tomography. Multivariable linear regression analyses were performed to determine associations among gestational age, birth weight percentile, retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) occurrence and treatment, and other perinatal factors, such as maternal smoking and others with foveal and global peripapillary choroidal thickness. Results: A total of 735 eyes of 408 study participants were included (age = 28.4 ± 8.6 years, 229 women). Multivariable regression analyses revealed that foveal choroidal thinning was associated with maternal smoking during pregnancy (B = -38.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -65.5 to -10.7, P = 0.006), whereas other perinatal factors revealed no association. Global peripapillary choroidal thinning showed a trend to a lower birth weight percentile (B = 0.22, 95% CI = -0.01 to 0.45, P = 0.057). No correlation was observed between foveal and peripapillary choroidal thicknesses with visual acuity. Conclusions: This study indicates that maternal cigarette smoking during pregnancy has adverse long-lasting effects on choroidal development in the fovea and low birth weight percentile as a surrogate marker for adverse perinatal growth might be linked with peripapillary choroidal thinning whereas prematurity showed no long-term effects. Translational Relevance: Altered choroidal layer development caused by perinatal influence factors might be a risk factor for reduced visual function and predispose affected individuals to eye diseases in later life.

Prevalence of Herpesvirus DNA in Corneal Transplant Recipients.

Purpose: Graft failure after penetrating keratoplasty (PK) is a serious complication, especially in eyes with herpetic keratitis (HK). This study evaluated the prevalence and graft survival of herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) and varicella zoster virus (VZV) DNA in recipient corneas during PK. Methods: The retrospective study was performed at the Department of Ophthalmology at University Hospital in Mainz, Germany. We analyzed data from every patient who underwent PK between January 2020 and June 2021. According to our clinical routine, we performed HSV-1 and VZV polymerase chain reaction (PCR) on all excised corneal buttons regardless of the primary clinical diagnosis. Results: We included 112 eyes of 112 consecutive patients who underwent PK. At the time of PK, 91 (81.25%) patients had no history of HK and 21 (18.75%) patients did. The recipient corneas of 91 patients without a history of HK tested positive for HSV-1 DNA in 12 (13.2%) eyes, for VZV DNA in 3 (3.3%) eyes, and for HSV-1 and VZV DNA simultaneously in 2 (2.2%) eyes. The recipient corneas of 21 patients with a preoperative history of HK tested positive for HSV-1 DNA in 13 (61.9%) eyes and VZV DNA in 1 (4.8%) eye. All patients with positive herpes DNA and no history of HK prior to PK received antiherpetic treatment and had a 100% graft survival rate after 1 year. Conclusions: We found herpesvirus DNA in 18.7% of recipient corneas without clinical suspicion or history of herpes keratitis. This suggests the need of routine HSV-1 and VZV PCR testing in all explanted corneas regardless of clinical suspicion, to detect, treat and prevent possible recurrence of herpes infection in corneal grafts and support graft survival.

Effect of Intraoperative Arterial Hypotension on the Risk of Perioperative Stroke After Noncardiac Surgery: A Retrospective Multicenter Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Intraoperative cerebral blood flow is mainly determined by cerebral perfusion pressure and cerebral autoregulation of vasomotor tone. About 1% of patients undergoing noncardiac surgery develop ischemic stroke. We hypothesized that intraoperative hypotension within a range frequently observed in clinical practice is associated with an increased risk of perioperative ischemic stroke within 7 days after surgery. METHODS: Adult noncardiac surgical patients undergoing general anesthesia at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center and Massachusetts General Hospital between 2005 and 2017 were included in this retrospective cohort study. The primary exposure was intraoperative hypotension, defined as a decrease in mean arterial pressure (MAP) below 55 mm Hg, categorized into no intraoperative hypotension, short (<15 minutes, median [interquartile range {IQR}], 2 minutes [1-5 minutes]) and prolonged (≥15 minutes, median [IQR], 21 minutes [17-31 minutes]) durations. The primary outcome was a new diagnosis of early perioperative ischemic stroke within 7 days after surgery. In secondary analyses, we assessed the effect of a MAP decrease by >30% from baseline on perioperative stroke. Analyses were adjusted for the preoperative STRoke After Surgery (STRAS) prediction score, work relative value units, and duration of surgery. RESULTS: Among 358,391 included patients, a total of 1553 (0.4%) experienced an early perioperative ischemic stroke. About 42% and 3% of patients had a MAP of below 55 mm Hg for a short and a prolonged duration, and 49% and 29% had a MAP decrease by >30% from baseline for a short and a prolonged duration, respectively. In an adjusted analysis, neither a MAP <55 mm Hg (short duration: adjusted odds ratio [ORadj], 0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.85-1.07; P = .417 and prolonged duration: ORadj, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.91-1.55; P = .220) nor a MAP decrease >30% (short duration: ORadj, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.67-1.42; P = .883 and prolonged duration: ORadj, 1.30; 95% CI, 0.89-1.90; P = .176) was associated with early perioperative stroke. A high a priori stroke risk quantified based on preoperatively available risk factors (STRAS prediction score) was associated with longer intraoperative hypotension (adjusted incidence rate ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.04-1.05; P < .001 per 5 points of the STRAS prediction score). CONCLUSIONS: This study found no evidence to conclude that intraoperative hypotension within the range studied was associated with early perioperative stroke within 7 days after surgery. These findings emphasize the importance of perioperative cerebral blood flow autoregulation to prevent ischemic stroke.

Development and external validation of a prognostic model for ischaemic stroke after surgery.

BACKGROUND: There is an under-recognised patient cohort at elevated risk of postoperative ischaemic stroke. We aimed to develop and validate a prognostic model for the identification of such patients at high risk of ischaemic stroke within 1 yr after noncardiac surgery. METHODS: This was a hospital registry study of adult patients undergoing noncardiac surgery between 2005 and 2017 at two independent healthcare networks in Massachusetts, USA without a preoperative indication for therapeutic anticoagulation. Logistic regression was used to fit a model from a priori defined candidate predictors for the outcome 1 yr postoperative ischaemic stroke. To enhance clinical applicability, the model was simplified to a scoring system and externally validated. RESULTS: In the development (n=107 756) and validation (n=141 724) cohorts, 1.4% and 0.5% of patients had an ischaemic stroke up to 1 yr postoperatively. The final model included 13 variables (patient characteristics, comorbidities, procedural factors), considering sub-models conditional on a previous history of ischaemic stroke. Areas under the curve were 0.89 (95% confidence interval 0.89-0.90) and 0.88 (95% confidence interval 0.86-0.89) in the development and validation cohorts. Decision curve analysis indicated positive net benefits superior to other prediction instruments. CONCLUSIONS: Stroke after surgery (STRAS) screening can reliably identify patients with a high risk for ischaemic stroke during the first year after surgery. A STRAS-guided risk stratification may inform the recruitment to future randomised trials testing the efficacy of treatments for the prevention of postoperative ischaemic stroke.

Optimal Sedation in Patients Who Receive Neuromuscular Blocking Agent Infusions for Treatment of Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome-A Retrospective Cohort Study From a New England Health Care Network.

OBJECTIVES: Two previously published trials (ARDS et Curarisation Systematique [ACURASYS] and Reevaluation of Systemic Early Neuromuscular Blockade [ROSE]) presented equivocal evidence on the effect of neuromuscular blocking agent infusions in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (acute respiratory distress syndrome). The sedation regimen differed between these trials and also within the ROSE trial between treatment and control groups. We hypothesized that the proportion of deeper sedation is a mediator of the effect of neuromuscular blocking agent infusions on mortality. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Seven ICUs in an academic hospital network, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (Boston, MA). PATIENTS: Intubated and mechanically ventilated ICU patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (Berlin definition) admitted between January 2008 until June 2019. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The proportion of deeper sedation was defined as days with nonlight sedation as a fraction of mechanical ventilation days in the ICU after acute respiratory distress syndrome diagnosis. Using clinical data obtained from a hospital network registry, 3,419 patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome were included, of whom 577 (16.9%) were treated with neuromuscular blocking agent infusions, for a mean (sd) duration of 1.8 (±1.9) days. The duration of deeper sedation was prolonged in patients receiving neuromuscular blocking agent infusions (4.6 ± 2.2 d) compared with patients without neuromuscular blocking agent infusions (2.4 ± 2.2 d; p < 0.001). The proportion of deeper sedation completely mediated the negative effect of neuromuscular blocking agent infusions on in-hospital mortality (p < 0.001). Exploratory analysis in patients who received deeper sedation revealed a beneficial effect of neuromuscular blocking agent infusions on mortality (49% vs 51%; adjusted odds ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.63-0.99, adjusted absolute risk difference, -0.05; p = 0.048). CONCLUSIONS: In acute respiratory distress syndrome patients who receive neuromuscular blocking agent infusions, a prolonged, high proportion of deeper sedation is associated with increased mortality. Our data support the view that clinicians should minimize the duration of deeper sedation after recovery from neuromuscular blocking agent infusion.

Effects of Volatile Anesthetics on Postoperative Ischemic Stroke Incidence.

Background Preclinical studies suggest that volatile anesthetics decrease infarct volume and improve the outcome of ischemic stroke. This study aims to determine their effect during noncardiac surgery on postoperative ischemic stroke incidence. Methods and Results This was a retrospective cohort study of surgical patients undergoing general anesthesia at 2 tertiary care centers in Boston, MA, between October 2005 and September 2017. Exclusion criteria comprised brain death, age <18 years, cardiac surgery, and missing covariate data. The exposure was defined as median age-adjusted minimum alveolar concentration of all intraoperative measurements of desflurane, sevoflurane, and isoflurane. The primary outcome was postoperative ischemic stroke within 30 days. Among 314 932 patients, 1957 (0.6%) experienced the primary outcome. Higher doses of volatile anesthetics had a protective effect on postoperative ischemic stroke incidence (adjusted odds ratio per 1 minimum alveolar concentration increase 0.49, 95% CI, 0.40-0.59, P<0.001). In Cox proportional hazards regression, the effect was observed for 17 postoperative days (postoperative day 1: hazard ratio (HR), 0.56; 95% CI, 0.48-0.65; versus day 17: HR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.74-0.99). Volatile anesthetics were also associated with lower stroke severity: Every 1-unit increase in minimum alveolar concentration was associated with a 0.006-unit decrease in the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (95% CI, -0.01 to -0.002, P=0.002). The effects were robust throughout various sensitivity analyses including adjustment for anesthesia providers as random effect. Conclusions Among patients undergoing noncardiac surgery, volatile anesthetics showed a dose-dependent protective effect on the incidence and severity of early postoperative ischemic stroke.

REsidual Neuromuscular Block Prediction Score Versus Train-of-Four Ratio and Respiratory Outcomes: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Residual neuromuscular blockade is associated with an increased incidence of postoperative respiratory complications. The REsidual neuromuscular block Prediction Score (REPS) identifies patients at high risk for residual neuromuscular blockade after surgery. METHODS: A total of 101,510 adults undergoing noncardiac surgery under general anesthesia from October 2005 to December 2018 at a tertiary care center in Massachusetts were analyzed for the primary outcome of postoperative respiratory complications (invasive mechanical ventilation requirement within 7 postoperative days or immediate postextubation desaturation [oxygen saturation {Spo2} <90%] within 10 minutes). The primary objective was to assess the association between the REPS and respiratory complications. The secondary objective was to compare REPS and train-of-four (TOF) ratio <0.90 on the strength of their association with respiratory complications. RESULTS: A high REPS (≥4) was associated with an increase in odds of respiratory complications (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.13 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.06-1.21]; P < .001). In 6224 cases with available TOF ratio measurements, a low TOF ratio (<0.9) was associated with respiratory complications (adjusted OR, 1.43 [95% CI, 1.11-1.85]; P = .006), whereas a high REPS was not (adjusted OR, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.74-1.23]; P = .73) (P = .018 for comparison between ORs). CONCLUSIONS: The REPS may be implemented as a screening tool to encourage clinicians to use quantitative neuromuscular monitoring in patients at risk of residual neuromuscular blockade. A positive REPS should be followed by a quantitative assessment of the TOF ratio.

What Factors Predict Adverse Discharge Disposition in Patients Older Than 60 Years Undergoing Lower-extremity Surgery? The Adverse Discharge in Older Patients after Lower-extremity Surgery (ADELES) Risk Score.

BACKGROUND: Adverse discharge disposition, which is discharge to a long-term nursing home or skilled nursing facility is frequent and devastating in older patients after lower-extremity orthopaedic surgery. Predicting individual patient risk allows for preventive interventions to address modifiable risk factors and helps managing expectations. Despite a variety of risk prediction tools for perioperative morbidity in older patients, there is no tool available to predict successful recovery of a patient's ability to live independently in this highly vulnerable population. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES: In this study, we asked: (1) What factors predict adverse discharge disposition in patients older than 60 years after lower-extremity surgery? (2) Can a prediction instrument incorporating these factors be applied to another patient population with reasonable accuracy? (3) How does the instrument compare with other predictions scores that account for frailty, comorbidities, or procedural risk alone? METHODS: In this retrospective study at two competing New England university hospitals and Level 1 trauma centers with 673 and 1017 beds, respectively; 83% (19,961 of 24,095) of patients 60 years or older undergoing lower-extremity orthopaedic surgery were included. In all, 5% (1316 of 24,095) patients not living at home and 12% (2797 of 24,095) patients with missing data were excluded. All patients were living at home before surgery. The mean age was 72 ± 9 years, 60% (11,981 of 19,961) patients were female, 21% (4155 of 19,961) underwent fracture care, and 34% (6882 of 19,961) underwent elective joint replacements. Candidate predictors were tested in a multivariable logistic regression model for adverse discharge disposition in a development cohort of all 14,123 patients from the first hospital, and then included in a prediction instrument that was validated in all 5838 patients from the second hospital by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC-AUC).Thirty-eight percent (5360 of 14,262) of patients in the development cohort and 37% (2184 of 5910) of patients in the validation cohort had adverse discharge disposition. Score performance in predicting adverse discharge disposition was then compared with prediction scores considering frailty (modified Frailty Index-5 or mFI-5), comorbidities (Charlson Comorbidity Index or CCI), and procedural risks (Procedural Severity Scores for Morbidity and Mortality or PSS). RESULTS: After controlling for potential confounders like BMI, cardiac, renal and pulmonary disease, we found that the most prominent factors were age older than 90 years (10 points), hip or knee surgery (7 or 8 points), fracture management (6 points), dementia (5 points), unmarried status (3 points), federally provided insurance (2 points), and low estimated household income based on ZIP code (1 point). Higher score values indicate a higher risk of adverse discharge disposition. The score comprised 19 variables, including socioeconomic characteristics, surgical management, and comorbidities with a cutoff value of ≥ 23 points. Score performance yielded an ROC-AUC of 0.85 (95% confidence interval 0.84 to 0.85) in the development and 0.72 (95% CI 0.71 to 0.73) in the independent validation cohort, indicating excellent and good discriminative ability. Performance of the instrument in predicting adverse discharge in the validation cohort was superior to the mFI-5, CCI, and PSS (ROC-AUC 0.72 versus 0.58, 0.57, and 0.57, respectively). CONCLUSION: The Adverse Discharge in Older Patients after Lower Extremity Surgery (ADELES) score predicts adverse discharge disposition after lower-extremity surgery, reflecting loss of the ability to live independently. Its discriminative ability is better than instruments that consider frailty, comorbidities, or procedural risk alone. The ADELES score identifies modifiable risk factors, including general anesthesia and prolonged preoperative hospitalization, and should be used to streamline patient and family expectation management and improve shared decision making. Future studies need to evaluate the score in community hospitals and in institutions with different rates of adverse discharge disposition and lower income. A non-commercial calculator can be accessed at www.adeles-score.org. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III, diagnostic study.

A Tool to Predict Readmission to the Intensive Care Unit in Surgical Critical Care Patients-The RISC Score.

BACKGROUND: Readmission to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) is associated with a high risk of in-hospital mortality and higher health care costs. Previously published tools to predict ICU readmission in surgical ICU patients have important limitations that restrict their clinical implementation. We sought to develop a clinically intuitive score that can be implemented to predict readmission to the ICU after surgery or trauma. We designed the score to emphasize modifiable predictors. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we included surgical patients requiring critical care between June 2015 and January 2019 at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Harvard Medical School, MA, USA. We used logistic regression to fit a prognostic model for ICU readmission from a priori defined, widely available candidate predictors. The score performance was compared with existing prediction instruments. RESULTS: Of 7,126 patients, 168 (2.4%) were readmitted to the ICU during the same hospitalization. The final score included 8 variables addressing demographical factors, surgical factors, physiological parameters, ICU treatment and the acuity of illness. The maximum score achievable was 13 points. Potentially modifiable predictors included the inability to ambulate at ICU discharge, substantial positive fluid balance (>5 liters), severe anemia (hemoglobin <7 mg/dl), hyperglycemia (>180 mg/dl), and long ICU length of stay (>5 days). The score yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.78 (95% CI 0.74-0.82) and significantly outperformed previously published scores. The performance of the underlying model was confirmed by leave-one-out cross-validation. CONCLUSION: The RISC-score is a clinically intuitive prediction instrument that helps identify surgical ICU patients at high risk for ICU readmission. The simplicity of the score facilitates its clinical implementation across surgical divisions.

Development of an Instrument for Preoperative Prediction of Adverse Discharge in Patients Scheduled for Cardiac Surgery.

OBJECTIVE: Inability of home discharge occurs in nearly a third of patients undergoing cardiac surgery and is associated with increased mortality. The authors aimed to evaluate the incidence and risk factors for adverse discharge disposition (ADD) after cardiac surgery and develop a prediction tool for preoperative risk assessment. DESIGN: This retrospective cohort study included adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery between 2010 and 2018. The primary outcome was ADD, defined as in-hospital mortality, discharge to a skilled nursing facility, or transfer to a long-term care hospital. The authors created a prediction tool using stepwise backward logistic regression and used 5-fold and leave-one-out cross-validation. SETTING: University hospital network. PARTICIPANTS: Adult patients living at home prior to surgery, who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting and/or valve procedures at the authors' institution. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: A total of 3,760 patients were included in the final study cohort. The observed rate of ADD was 33.3%. The prediction model showed good discrimination and accuracy, with C-statistic of 0.78 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.76-0.79) and unmodified Brier score of 0.177 (reliability 0.001). The final model comprised 14 predictors. Patients who experienced ADD were more likely to be older, of female sex, to have had higher length of hospital stay prior to surgery, and to have undergone emergency surgery. CONCLUSIONS: The authors present an instrument for prediction of loss of the ability to live independently in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. The authors' score may be useful in identifying high-risk patients such that earlier coordination of care can be initiated in this vulnerable patient population.

Effects of night surgery on postoperative mortality and morbidity: a multicentre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Surgery at night (incision time 17:00 to 07:00 hours) may lead to increased postoperative mortality and morbidity. Mechanisms explaining this association remain unclear. METHODS: We conducted a multicentre retrospective cohort study of adult patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery with general anaesthesia at two major, competing tertiary care hospital networks. In primary analysis, we imputed missing data and determined whether exposure to night surgery affects 30-day mortality using a mixed-effects model with individual anaesthesia and surgical providers as random effects. Secondary outcomes were 30-day morbidity and the mediating effect of blood transfusion rates and provider handovers on the effect of night surgery on outcomes. We further tested for effect modification by surgical setting. RESULTS: Among 350 235 participants in the primary imputed cohort, the mortality rate was 0.9% (n=2804/322 327) after day and 3.4% (n=940/27 908) after night surgery. Night surgery was associated with an increased risk of mortality (ORadj 1.26, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.38, p<0.001). In secondary analyses, night surgery was associated with increased morbidity (ORadj 1.41, 95% CI 1.33 to 1.48, p<0.001). The proportion of patients receiving intraoperative blood transfusion and anaesthesia handovers were higher during night-time, mediating 9.4% (95% CI 4.7% to 14.2%, p<0.001) of the effect of night surgery on 30-day mortality and 8.4% (95% CI 6.7% to 10.1%, p<0.001) of its effect on morbidity. The primary association was modified by the surgical setting (p-for-interaction<0.001), towards a greater effect in patients undergoing ambulatory/same-day surgery (ORadj 1.81, 95% CI 1.39 to 2.35) compared with inpatients (ORadj 1.17, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.34). CONCLUSIONS: Night surgery was associated with an increased risk of postoperative mortality and morbidity. The effect was independent of case acuity and was mediated by potentially preventable factors: higher blood transfusion rates and more frequent provider handovers.

Outcomes after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography with general anaesthesia versus sedation.

BACKGROUND: We tested the primary hypothesis that use of general anaesthesia vs sedation increases vulnerability to adverse discharge (in-hospital mortality or new discharge to a nursing facility) after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, adult patients undergoing ERCP with general anaesthesia or sedation at a tertiary care hospital were included. We calculated adjusted absolute risk differences between patients receiving general anaesthesia vs sedation using provider preference-based instrumental variable analysis. We also used mediation analysis to determine whether intraoperative hypotension during general anaesthesia mediated its effect on adverse discharge. RESULTS: Among 17 538 patients undergoing ERCP from 2007 through 2018, 16 238 received sedation and 1300 received GA. Rates of adverse discharge were 5.8% (n=938) after sedation and 16.2% (n=210) after general anaesthesia. Providers' adjusted mean predicted probabilities of using general anaesthesia for ERCP ranged from 0.2% to 63.2% of individual caseloads. Utilising provider-related variability in the use of general anaesthesia for instrumental variable analysis resulted in an 8.6% risk increase (95% confidence interval, 4.5-12.6%; P<0.001) in adverse discharge among patients receiving general anaesthesia vs sedation. Intraoperative hypotensive events occurred more often during general anaesthesia and mediated 23.8% (95% confidence interval, 3.9-43.7%: P=0.019) of the primary association. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that use of sedation during ERCP facilitates reduced adverse discharge for patients for whom general anaesthesia is not clearly indicated. Intraoperative hypotension during general anaesthesia for ERCP partly mediates the increased vulnerability to adverse discharge.