A longitudinal path model examining the transactional nature of parenting and child externalizing behaviors in a large, sociodemographically diverse sample.

Children's externalizing behaviors are associated with impairments across the lifespan. Developmental psychopathology theories propose transactional (bidirectional) associations between child externalizing behaviors and parenting during childhood and adolescence. Yet, these foundational relations in early childhood are not well-studied. Utilizing a large, mixed-sex sample, we examined the reciprocal nature of parenting and child externalizing behaviors across early childhood using robust repeated-measures models. Repeated measures data were drawn from a socioeconomically diverse, longitudinal pregnancy cohort of 1287 (64% Black, 31% White) mother-child dyads at four time points (ages one to six). Three variables were included in cross-lagged panel models: observed parenting quality, child externalizing symptoms, and a maternal risk composite. In covariate-adjusted models, higher parenting quality at Wave 1 predicted lower child externalizing symptoms at Wave 2. Higher externalizing symptoms at Wave 1 and Wave 2 predicted lower parenting quality at Wave 2 and Wave 3, respectively. Maternal risk and parenting quality were not significantly associated. Findings showed both parent-driven and child-driven effects across early childhood that did not vary by child sex. The transactional nature of the parent-child relationship begins in infancy, underscoring the importance of early screening and provision of supports for families to minimize and prevent the development of serious psychopathology.

From Reactive to Proactive - The Future Life Design to Promote Health and Extend the Human Lifespan.

Disease treatment and prevention have improved the human lifespan. Current studies on aging, such as the biological clock and senolytic drugs have focused on the medical treatments of various disorders and health maintenance. However, to efficiently extend the human lifespan to its theoretical maximum, medicine can take a further proactive approach and identify the inapparent disorders that affect the gestation, body growth, and reproductive stages of the so-called "healthy" population. The goal is to upgrade the standard health status to a new level by targeting the inapparent disorders. Thus, future research can shift from reaction, response, and prevention to proactive, quality promotion and vigor prolonging; from single disease-oriented to multiple dimension protocol for a healthy body; from treatment of symptom onset to keep away from disorders; and from the healthy aging management to a healthy promotion design beginning at the birth.

Exudation in Patients With Neovascular Age-Related Macular Degeneration Treated With the Port Delivery System or Monthly Injections.

PURPOSE: To evaluate for the presence, severity, and type of exudation at each study visit for a subgroup of patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration from the Archway and Portal trials. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of prospectively obtained data. METHODS: Spectral-domain optical coherence tomography scans from each study visit of 44 patients from the Port Delivery System (PDS) arm and 32 patients from the monthly injection arm of Archway were evaluated, and composites of horizontal scans through the fovea were created. Each composite was graded for the presence, type, and severity of exudation and impact on best-corrected visual acuity. RESULTS: After PDS implantation, 20 of 44 eyes (45%) never showed any exudation in the fovea, 2 (5%) never showed exudation in the fovea but had several missed visits, whereas 15 (34%), 3 (7%), and 4 (9%) showed mild, moderate, or severe exudation at 1 or more study visits, respectively. When exudation was present, it was most commonly subretinal fluid (50%). Of 32 patients randomized to monthly injections, 15 (47%) had no exudation in the fovea during monthly injections or after PDS implantation. Fluctuation of exudation in the fovea over time was seen in some patients after PDS implantation or during monthly injections with little or no identifiable impact on best-corrected visual acuity. In the 7 eyes with moderate or severe exudation in the fovea after PDS implantation, final vision was good in 5 (20/25 in 3, 20/40 in 1, and 20/50 in 1) and 2 had reduced vision from submacular hemorrhage. CONCLUSIONS: The PDS provides excellent control of exudation in the fovea in patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration, and when exudation occurs, it often resolves without a negative impact on vision.

Time to establish an international vaccine candidate pool for potential highly infectious respiratory disease: a community's view.

In counteracting highly infectious and disruptive respiratory diseases such as COVID-19, vaccination remains the primary and safest way to prevent disease, reduce the severity of illness, and save lives. Unfortunately, vaccination is often not the first intervention deployed for a new pandemic, as it takes time to develop and test vaccines, and confirmation of safety requires a period of observation after vaccination to detect potential late-onset vaccine-associated adverse events. In the meantime, nonpharmacologic public health interventions such as mask-wearing and social distancing can provide some degree of protection. As climate change, with its environmental impacts on pathogen evolution and international mobility continue to rise, highly infectious respiratory diseases will likely emerge more frequently and their impact is expected to be substantial. How quickly a safe and efficacious vaccine can be deployed against rising infectious respiratory diseases may be the most important challenge that humanity will face in the near future. While some organizations are engaged in addressing the World Health Organization's "blueprint for priority diseases", the lack of worldwide preparedness, and the uncertainty around universal vaccine availability, remain major concerns. We therefore propose the establishment of an international candidate vaccine pool repository for potential respiratory diseases, supported by multiple stakeholders and countries that contribute facilities, technologies, and other medical and financial resources. The types and categories of candidate vaccines can be determined based on information from previous pandemics and epidemics. Each participant country or region can focus on developing one or a few vaccine types or categories, together covering most if not all possible potential infectious diseases. The safety of these vaccines can be tested using animal models. Information for effective candidates that can be potentially applied to humans will then be shared across all participants. When a new pandemic arises, these pre-selected and tested vaccines can be quickly tested in RCTs for human populations.

The role of prenatal violence exposure in the development of disparities in children's adiposity from birth to middle childhood.

OBJECTIVE: This study examined whether women's exposure to multiple types of violence during childhood and pregnancy was associated with children's BMI trajectories and whether parenting quality moderated those associations. METHODS: A cohort of 1288 women who gave birth between 2006 and 2011 self-reported their exposure to childhood traumatic events, intimate partner violence (IPV), and residential address (linked to geocoded index of violent crime) during pregnancy. Children's length/height and weight at birth and at age 1, 2, 3, 4 to 6, and 8 years were converted to BMI z scores. Observed mother-child interactions were behaviorally coded during a dyadic teaching task. RESULTS: Covariate-adjusted growth mixture models identified three trajectories of children's BMI from birth to 8 years old: Low-Stable (17%), Moderate-Stable (59%), and High-Rising (22%). Children whose mothers experienced more types of IPV during pregnancy were more likely to be in the High-Rising than the Low-Stable (odds ratio [OR] = 2.62; 95% CI: 1.27-5.41) trajectory. Children whose mothers lived in higher crime neighborhoods were more likely to be in the High-Rising than the Low-Stable (OR = 1.11; 95% CI:1.03-1.17) or Moderate-Stable trajectories (OR = 1.08; CI: 1.03-1.13). Main effects of childhood traumatic events and moderation by parenting were not detected. CONCLUSIONS: Maternal experiences of violence during pregnancy increase children's risk for developing overweight, highlighting intergenerational transmission of social adversity in children's health.

Working memory and school readiness in preschool children with sickle cell disease compared to demographically matched controls.

Children diagnosed with sickle cell disease (SCD) are at risk of the development of neurobehavioural problems early in life. Specific impairments in executive function skills, including working memory, have been documented in school-aged children with SCD. These executive skills are known to strongly contribute to early academic skills and preparedness for entering kindergarten. This study examined working memory and school readiness in preschool children with SCD compared to a healthy control group matched for race, sex and parent education. A total of 84 patients diagnosed with SCD (61.9% haemoglobin [Hb]SS/HbSß0 -thalassaemia) and 168 controls completed testing. The mean (SD) ages of patients and controls at testing were 4.53 (0.38) and 4.44 (0.65) years respectively. The SCD group performed worse than controls on measures of executive function, working memory and school readiness (p < 0.01; Cohen's D range: 0.32-0.39). Measures of working memory were associated with school readiness after accounting for early adaptive development. Multiple linear regression models among patients diagnosed with SCD revealed that college education of the primary caregiver was positively associated with school readiness (p < 0.001) after controlling for sex, genotype, age and early adaptive development. These results highlight the need to implement school readiness interventions in young children diagnosed with SCD emphasising executive function skills.

Bring the life stages into the domain of basic and clinical pharmacology.

Completely distinct physiological conditions and immune responses exist among different human life stages. Age is not always consistent with the life stage. We proposed to incorporate the concept of the life stages into basic and clinical pharmacology, including clinical trials, drug labels, and drug usage in clinical practice. Life-stage-based medical treatment is the application of medicine according to life stages such as prepuberty, reproductive, and aging. A large number of diseases are life-stage-dependent. Many medications and therapy have shown various age effects but not been recognized as life-stage-dependent. The same dosage and drug applications used in different life stages lead to divergent outcomes. Incorporating life stages in medicine and drug usage will enhance the efficacy and precision of the medication in disease treatment.

An alternative approach-combination of lockdown and open in fighting COVID-19 pandemics.

As the COVID-19 pandemic enters its third year and the omicron variant becomes dominant, we propose an alternative strategy for dealing with COVID-19, called hybrid lockdown, that is, the combination of lockdown (the centralized and organized lockdown of the high-risk population) and free mobility (normal mobility) of the low-risk population. Such an approach will enable a country or region, especially with a high population density, to achieve significant prevention and control the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic at the least cost.

Mortality in Four Waves of COVID-19 Is Differently Associated with Healthcare Capacities Affected by Economic Disparities.

BACKGROUND: The greatest challenges are imposed on the overall capacity of disease management when the cases reach the maximum in each wave of the pandemic. METHODS: The cases and deaths for the four waves of COVID-19 in 119 countries and regions (CRs) were collected. We compared the mortality across CRs where populations experience different economic and healthcare disparities. FINDINGS: Among 119 CRs, 117, 112, 111, and 55 have experienced 1, 2, 3, and 4 waves of COVID-19 disease, respectively. The average mortality rates at the disease turning point were 0.036, 0.019. 0.017, and 0.015 for the waves 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. Among 49 potential factors, income level, gross national income (GNI) per capita, and school enrollment are positively correlated with the mortality rates in the first wave, but negatively correlated with the rates of the rest of the waves. Their values for the first wave are 0.253, 0.346 and 0.385, respectively. The r value for waves 2, 3, and 4 are -0.310, -0.293, -0.234; -0.263, -0.284, -0.282; and -0.330, -0.394, -0.048, respectively. In high-income CRs, the mortality rates in waves 2 and 3 were 29% and 28% of that in wave 1; while in upper-middle-income CRs, the rates for waves 2 and 3 were 76% and 79% of that in wave 1. The rates in waves 2 and 3 for lower-middle-income countries were 88% and 89% of that in wave 1, and for low-income countries were 135% and 135%. Furthermore, comparison among the largest case numbers through all waves indicated that the mortalities in upper- and lower-middle-income countries is 65% more than that of the high-income countries. INTERPRETATION: Conclusions from the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic do not apply to the following waves. The clinical outcomes in developing countries become worse along with the expansion of the pandemic.

Intergenerational Transmission of Effects of Women's Stressors During Pregnancy: Child Psychopathology and the Protective Role of Parenting.

Objective: Experiences of stress and adversity, such as intimate partner violence, confer risk for psychiatric problems across the life span. The effects of these risks are disproportionately borne by women and their offspring-particularly those from communities of color. The prenatal period is an especially vulnerable period of fetal development, during which time women's experiences of stress can have long-lasting implications for offspring mental health. Importantly, there is a lack of focus on women's capacity for resilience and potential postnatal protective factors that might mitigate these intergenerational risks and inform intervention efforts. The present study examined intergenerational associations between women's prenatal stressors and child executive functioning and externalizing problems, testing maternal parenting quality and child sex as moderators, using a large, prospective, sociodemographically diverse cohort. Methods: We used data from 1,034 mother-child dyads (64% Black, 30% White) from the Conditions Affecting Neurocognitive Development and Learning in Early Childhood (CANDLE) pregnancy cohort within the ECHO PATHWAYS consortium. Women's prenatal stressors included stressful life events (pSLE) and intimate partner violence (pIPV). Measures of child psychopathology at age 4-6 included executive functioning and externalizing problems. Parenting behaviors were assessed by trained observers, averaged across two sessions of mother-child interactions. Linear regression models were used to estimate associations between women's prenatal stressors and child psychopathology, adjusting for confounders and assessing moderation effects by maternal parenting quality and child sex. Results: Women's exposures to pSLE and pIPV were independently associated with child executive functioning problems and externalizing problems in fully-adjusted models. Maternal parenting quality moderated associations between pSLE and both outcomes, such that higher parenting quality was protective for the associations between women's pSLE and child executive functioning and externalizing problems. No moderation by child sex was found. Discussion: Findings from this large, sociodemographically diverse cohort suggest women's exposures to interpersonal violence and major stressful events-common for women during pregnancy-may prenatally program her child's executive functioning and externalizing problems. Women's capacity to provide high quality parenting can buffer this intergenerational risk. Implications for universal and targeted prevention and early intervention efforts to support women's and children's wellbeing are discussed.

Variations of COVID-19 mortality are affected by economic disparities across countries.

BACKGROUND: When the COVID-19 case number reaches a maximum in a country, its capacity and management of health system face greatest challenge. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study on data of turning points for cases and deaths for the first three waves of COVID-19 in countries with more than 5000 cumulative cases, as reported by Worldometers and WHO Coronavirus (COVID-19) Dashboard. We compared the case fatality rates (CFRs) and time lags (in unit of day) between the turning points of cases and deaths among countries in different development stages and potential influence factors. As of May 10, 2021, 106 out of 222 countries or regions (56%) reported more than 5000 cases. Approximately half of them have experienced all the three waves of COVID-19 disease. The average mortality rate at the disease turning point was 0.038 for the first wave, 0.020 for the second wave, and 0.023 for wave 3. In high-income countries, the mortality rates during the first wave are higher than that of the other income levels. However, the mortality rates during the second and third waves of COVID-19 were much lower than those of the first wave, with a significant reduction from 5.7% to 1.7% approximately 70%. At the same time, high-income countries exhibited a 2-fold increase in time lags during the second and the third waves compared to the first wave, suggesting that the periods between the cases and deaths turning point extended. High rates in the first wave in developed countries are associated to multiple factors including transportation, population density, and aging populations. In upper middle- and lower middle-income countries, the decreasing of mortality rates in the second and third waves were subtle or even reversed, with increased mortality during the following waves. In the upper and lower middle-income countries, the time lags were about 50% of the durations observed from high-income countries. INTERPRETATION: Economy and medical resources affect the efficiency of COVID-19 mitigation and the clinical outcomes of the patients. The situation is likely to become even worse in the light of these countries' limited ability to combat COVID-19 and prevent severe outcomes or deaths as the new variant transmission becomes dominant.

[Practical aspects of ketamine treatment-Safety, combination treatment and comorbidities]. / Praktische Aspekte der Ketaminbehandlung ­ Sicherheit, Kombinationstherapien und Komorbiditäten.

BACKGROUND: Although multiple studies and meta-analyses have documented the rapid antidepressive efficacy of ketamine, there are numerous questions regarding the practical use in the clinical routine that are still unanswered. OBJECTIVE: Based on personal clinical experience, by comparison and supplementation of the current data situation, answers are given to questions regarding the practical use of ketamine for depression that have not yet been satisfactorily clarified. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The clinical experiences with antidepressive treatment using ketamine over more than 5 years were evaluated with respect to the questions at hand. This was followed by a qualitative comparison of these results with those of a narrative literature search. RESULTS: A total of 72 patients (unipolar depression n = 53, bipolar depression n = 16, schizoaffective depression n = 3) were included in the analysis of this cohort. A statistically significant reduction of depressive symptoms and suicidal ideation after S-ketamine treatment was found. Of the patients 61% suffered from at least one secondary diagnosis. A dose of 0.5 mg/kg body weight of S­ketamine at a frequency of three times per week was shown to be effective. The treatment appears to be safe with respect to urotoxic side effects, combination treatment with tranylcypromine and in comorbid posttraumatic stress disorder. CONCLUSION: Ketamine appears to be a safe and effective option for the treatment of unipolar and bipolar depression.

THRIVE intervention development: using participatory action research principles to guide a mHealth app-based intervention to improve oncology care.

BACKGROUND: Women with hormone receptor-positive, early-stage breast cancer who adhere to adjuvant endocrine therapy (AET) reduce the risk of cancer recurrence and mortality. AET, however, is associated with adverse symptoms that often result in poor adherence. We applied participatory action research (PAR) principles to conduct focus groups and interviews to refine and enhance a web-enabled app intervention that facilitates patient-provider communication about AET-related symptoms and other barriers to adherence. METHODS: We conducted four focus groups with women with early-stage breast cancer on AET (N=28), stratified by race (Black and White) and length of time on AET (<6 months and >6 months), to determine preferences and refine the app-based intervention. A fifth mixed-race focus group was convened (N=6) to refine THRIVE app content using high-fidelity mock-ups and to develop new, tailored feedback messages. We also conducted interviews with oncology nurses (N=5) who participated in the THRIVE randomized controlled trial. RESULTS: Participants reported preferences for weekly reminder messages to use the THRIVE app, a free-text option to write in AET-related symptoms, and app aesthetics. Other requested app features included: a body map for identifying pain, sleep and dental problems on the symptom list, a dashboard, tailored feedback messages, and information about social support resources. Participants also developed new intervention messages, decided which messages to keep, and edited language for appropriateness and sensitivity. They also discussed the type of electronic pill monitor and incentive plan to be used in the intervention. Nurses reported THRIVE alerts integrated seamlessly into their clinical workflow and increased patient-provider communication, facilitating quicker response to patients' reported symptoms. Nurses reported no negative feedback or usability concerns with the app. CONCLUSIONS: THRIVE app content reflects researchers' partnership with a racially diverse sample of breast cancer survivors and healthcare providers and adherence to participatory design by incorporating patient-requested app features, app aesthetics, and message content. The app has the potential to improve AET adherence and quality of life among breast cancer survivors and reduce disparities in mortality rates for Black women by facilitating communication with healthcare providers.

Association between population density and infection rate suggests the importance of social distancing and travel restriction in reducing the COVID-19 pandemic.

Currently, 2019-nCoV has spread to most countries of the world. Understanding the environmental factors that affect the spread of the disease COVID-19 infection is critical to stop the spread of the disease. The purpose of this study is to investigate whether population density is associated with the infection rate of the COVID-19. We collected data from official webpages of cities in China and in the USA. The data were organized on Excel spreadsheets for statistical analyses. We calculated the morbidity and population density of cities and regions in these two countries. We then examined the relationship between morbidity and other factors. Our analysis indicated that the population density in cities in Hubei province where the COVID-19 was severe was associated with a higher percentage of morbidity, with an r value of 0.62. Similarly, in the USA, the density of 51 states and territories is also associated with morbidity from COVID-19 with an r value of 0.55. In contrast, as a control group, there is no association between the morbidity and population density in 33 other regions of China, where the COVID-19 epidemic is well under control. Interestingly, our study also indicated that these associations were not influenced by the first case of COVID-19. The rate of morbidity and the number of days from the first case in the USA have no association, with an r value of - 0.1288. Population density is positively associated with the percentage of patients with COVID-19 infection in the population. Our data support the importance of such as social distancing and travel restriction in the prevention of COVID-19 spread.

A cost-effective plan for global testing - an infection rate stratified, algorithm guided, multiple-level, continuously pooled testing strategy.

The most effective measure to prevent or stop the spread of infectious diseases is the early identification and isolation of infected individuals through comprehensive screening. At present, in the COVID-19 pandemic, such screening is often limited to isolated regions as determined by local governments. Screening of potentially infectious individuals should be conducted through coordinated national or global unified actions. Our current research focuses on using resources to conduct comprehensive national and regional regular testing with a risk rate based, algorithmic guided, multiple-level, pooled testing strategy. Here, combining methodologies with mathematical logistic models, we present an analytic procedure of an overall plan for coordinating state, national, or global testing. The proposed plan includes three parts 1) organization, resource allocation, and distribution; 2) screening based on different risk levels and business types; and 3) algorithm guided, multiple level, continuously screening the entire population in a region. This strategy will overcome the false positive and negative results in the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test and missing samples during initial tests. Based on our proposed protocol, the population screening of 300,000,000 in the US can be done weekly with between 15,000,000 and 6,000,000 test kits. The strategy can be used for population screening for current COVID-19 and any future severe infectious disease when drugs or vaccines are not available.

"Nobody Will Tell You. You've Got to Ask!": An Examination of Patient-Provider Communication Needs and Preferences among Black and White Women with Early-Stage Breast Cancer.

Patient-provider communication is a critical component of healthcare and is associated with treatment quality and outcomes for women with breast cancer. This qualitative study examines similarities and differences in patient perspectives of communication needs between Black and White breast cancer survivors. We conducted four focus groups (N = 28) involving women with early-stage breast cancer on adjuvant endocrine therapy (AET), stratified by race and length of time on AET (< 6 months and >6 months). Each group was moderated by a race-concordant moderator and analyzed by emergent themes. Participants expressed common patient-provider communication needs, namely increased sensitivity from oncologists during the initial cancer diagnosis, personalized information to facilitate treatment decisions, emotional support during the transition from active treatment to maintenance, and rapid provider responses to mobile app-based queries. Communication differences by race also emerged. Black women were less likely than White women to describe having their informational needs met. White women praised longstanding relationships with providers, while Black women shared personal stories of disempowered interactions and noted the importance of patient advocates. White women more often reported privacy concerns about technology use. Unlike White women, Black women reported willingness to discuss sensitive topics, both online and offline, but believed those discussions made their providers feel uncomfortable. Early-stage breast cancer patients on AET, regardless of race, have similar needs for patient-centered communication with their oncologists. However, Black women were more likely to report experiencing poorer communication with providers than White women, which may be improved by technology and advocates.

Maternal Plasma 25-Hydroxyvitamin D during Gestation Is Positively Associated with Neurocognitive Development in Offspring at Age 4-6 Years.

BACKGROUND: Vitamin D is critical to embryonic neuronal differentiation and other developmental processes that may affect future neurocognitive function. However, observational studies have found inconsistent associations between gestational vitamin D and neurocognitive outcomes. OBJECTIVES: We examined the association of gestational 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] with children's IQ at 4-6 y, and explored whether associations differed by race. METHODS: This study used data from the CANDLE (Conditions Affecting Neurocognitive Development and Learning in Early Childhood) cohort. Between 2006 and 2011, CANDLE recruited 1503 women in their second trimester of healthy singleton pregnancies. Inclusion criteria for this analysis were gestation of ≥34 wk and availability of 25(OH)D and IQ data. Associations between second-trimester 25(OH)D plasma concentration and Stanford-Binet IQ scores in offspring at 4-6 y were examined using multivariable linear regression; interaction terms were used to explore possible effect modification by race. RESULTS: Mean ± SD 25(OH)D concentration among 1019 eligible dyads was 21.6 ± 8.4 ng/mL, measured at a mean ± SD gestational age of 23.0 ± 3.0 wk. Vitamin D deficiency [25(OH)D < 20 ng/mL] was observed in 45.6%. Maternal 25(OH)D differed by race with a mean ± SD of 19.8 ± 7.2 ng/mL in Blacks sand 25.9 ± 9.3 ng/mL in Whites ( P  < 0.001). In adjusted models a 10-ng/mL increase in 25(OH)D was associated with a 1.17-point higher Full Scale IQ (95% CI: 0.27, 2.06 points), a 1.17-point higher Verbal IQ (95% CI: 0.19, 2.15 points), and a 1.03-point higher Nonverbal IQ (95% CI: 0.10, 1.95 points). We observed no evidence of effect modification by race. CONCLUSIONS: Second-trimester maternal 25(OH)D was positively associated with IQ at 4-6 y, suggesting that gestational vitamin D status may be an important predictor of neurocognitive development. These findings may help inform prenatal nutrition recommendations and may be especially relevant for Black and other dark-skinned women at high risk of vitamin D deficiency.

The Data set for Patient Information Based Algorithm to Predict Mortality Cause by COVID-19.

The data of COVID-19 disease in China and then in South Korea were collected daily from several different official websites. The collected data included 33 death cases in Wuhan city of Hubei province during early outbreak as well as confirmed cases and death toll in some specific regions, which were chosen as representatives from the perspective of the coronavirus outbreak in China. Data were copied and pasted onto Excel spreadsheets to perform data analysis. A new methodology, Patient Information Based Algorithm (PIBA) [1], has been adapted to process the data and used to estimate the death rate of COVID-19 in real-time. Assumption is that the number of days from inpatients to death fall into a pattern of normal distribution and the scores in normal distribution can be obtained by observing 33 death cases and analysing the data [2]. We selected 5 scores in normal distribution of these durations as lagging days, which will be used in the following estimation of death rate. We calculated each death rate on accumulative confirmed cases with each lagging day from the current data and then weighted every death rate with its corresponding possibility to obtain the total death rate on each day. While the trendline of these death rate curves meet the curve of current ratio between accumulative death cases and confirmed cases at some points in the near future, we considered that these intersections are within the range of real death rates. Six tables were presented to illustrate the PIBA method using data from China and South Korea. One figure on estimated rate of infection and patients in serious condition and retrospective estimation of initially occurring time of CORID-19 based on PIBA.