Benefits and costs of measures to tackle the outbreak of African swine fever in Sweden.

A common rule in many countries for mitigating the damage caused by African swine fever (ASF) is to eradicate the virus at the outbreak in order to prevent its dispersal and the associated social costs of depopulating infected domestic pigs. The economic performance of this practice, as measured by five different evaluation criteria (net present value, benefit-cost ratio, rate of return, internal rate of return, and payback time), depends on the type of control cost and the spatial and dynamic allocation of benefits, i.e. avoided losses from infected domestic pig farms. The present paper calculates the direct and indirect costs of immediate control measures during an ASF outbreak in wild boars in Mid Sweden. The direct costs include expenses incurred for surveillance, laboratory tests, depopulation of wild boar etc., while the indirect costs are borne by firms and people in the area in relation to movement restrictions. The calculations showed that the total cost of control measures amounted to 28 million euros, with indirect costs making up 40 % of this figure. The benefits were greatly dependent on the speed of ASF dispersal and assumptions about pig farmers' investment responses, which implied large variations in each of the five evaluation criteria.

Effects of shipping on non-indigenous species in the Baltic Sea.

Shipping is regarded as an important vector for aquatic non-indigenous species (ANIS) worldwide. Less attention has been paid to its role in relation to environmental and economic causes of introduction and establishment, the knowledge of which is necessary to assess effects of changes in regulations on shipping. The purpose of this study was to estimate the impact of shipping on the incidence of ANIS in the Baltic Sea compared with environmental and economic factors. To this end, a production function was estimated with count data on ANIS (response variable) and shipping, environmental and economic factors as explanatory variables. Regression results from different regression models showed that shipping has a significant impact on ANIS incidence and can account for up to 38% of the number of ANIS in the sea. Predictions of the impact of measures implementing the Convention for the Control and Management of Ships' Ballast Water and Sediment indicated a reduction by 17% in the number of ANIS, which was counteracted by an expected increase in shipping traffic.

Air pollutants from shipping: Costs of NOx emissions to the Baltic Sea.

Despite a large body of literature on the calculations of costs of air emissions from shipping, calculations of damages to the marine water are missing. This paper calculated the costs of NOx emissions from shipping entering an environmentally heterogeneous sea by applying the abatement cost approach. The total costs and unit shadow cost of NOx were then calculated by means of the marginal abatement cost for international agreements on targets of nitrogen loads to the sea. This conceptual model highlighted the need to distinguish between direct emissions of NOx on the sea and indirect emissions through deposition of emissions on land in the catchment with subsequent transportation into the sea. Calculated total cost amounted to 240 million euros, where indirect deposition accounted for 23% of the costs. The unit shadow costs ranged between 1.41 and 3.69 euros/kg NOx-N depending on location of the vessel.

A review on the environmental impacts of shipping on aquatic and nearshore ecosystems.

There are several environmental and ecological effects of shipping. However, these are rarely assessed in total in the scientific literature. Thus, the aim of this study was to summarize the different impacts of water-based transport on aquatic and nearshore ecosystems and to identify knowledge gaps and areas for future research. The review identified several environmental and ecological consequences within the main impact categories of water discharges, physical impacts, and air emissions. However, although quantitative data on these consequences are generally scarce the shipping contribution to acidification by SOx- and NOx-emissions has been quantified to some extent. There are several knowledge gaps regarding the ecological consequences of, for example, the increasing amount of chemicals transported on water, the spread of non-indigenous species coupled with climate change, and physical impacts such as shipping noise and artificial light. The whole plethora of environmental consequences, as well as potential synergistic effects, should be seriously considered in transport planning.

The economic value of mussel farming for uncertain nutrient removal in the Baltic Sea.

Mussel farming has been recognised as a low cost option for mitigating damage caused by eutrophication in the Baltic Sea. However, uncertain nutrient removal owing to weather and environmental conditions at the mussel farm site has not been previously considered. The purpose of this study was to estimate whether mussel farming has cost advantages even in conditions of uncertainty. To this end, the replacement cost method was used for the valuation of ecosystem services and a numerical cost minimisation model was constructed based on the safety-first approach to account for uncertainty in nutrient removal. This study showed that the value of mussel farming depends on the cost at the farm, and the impact on the mean and variability of nutrient removal in relation to other abatement measures. The study also pointed out the need of data on the decision makers' risk attitudes and measurement of uncertainty. The application to the Baltic Sea showed that the total value of mussel farming increased from 0.34 billion Euro/year to 0.41 or 1.21 billion Euro when accounting for uncertainty depending on assumption of probability distribution. The increase was unevenly distributed between the Baltic Sea countries, with it found to be lower for countries equipped with highly productive mussel farms and long coastlines.

Effects of an invasive polychaete on benthic phosphorus cycling at sea basin scale: An ecosystem disservice.

Macrofaunal activities in sediments modify nutrient fluxes in different ways including the expression of species-specific functional traits and density-dependent population processes. The invasive polychaete genus Marenzelleria was first observed in the Baltic Sea in the 1980s. It has caused changes in benthic processes and affected the functioning of ecosystem services such as nutrient regulation. The large-scale effects of these changes are not known. We estimated the current Marenzelleria spp. wet weight biomass in the Baltic Sea to be 60-87 kton (95% confidence interval). We assessed the potential impact of Marenzelleria spp. on phosphorus cycling using a spatially explicit model, comparing estimates of expected sediment to water phosphorus fluxes from a biophysical model to ecologically relevant experimental measurements of benthic phosphorus flux. The estimated yearly net increases (95% CI) in phosphorous flux due to Marenzelleria spp. were 4.2-6.1 kton based on the biophysical model and 6.3-9.1 kton based on experimental data. The current biomass densities of Marenzelleria spp. in the Baltic Sea enhance the phosphorus fluxes from sediment to water on a sea basin scale. Although high densities of Marenzelleria spp. can increase phosphorus retention locally, such biomass densities are uncommon. Thus, the major effect of Marenzelleria seems to be a large-scale net decrease in the self-cleaning capacity of the Baltic Sea that counteracts human efforts to mitigate eutrophication in the region.

Does divergence of nutrient load measurements matter for successful mitigation of marine eutrophication?

Successful implementation of an international nutrient abatement agreement, such as the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP), requires consistent understanding of the baseline nutrient loads, and a perception of acceptable costs and fairness in targeted reductions of these base line loads. This article presents a general framework for identifying the implications of divergence between different nutrient load quantification approaches, with regard to both cost and fairness criteria outcomes, for the international agreement to decrease nutrient loads into the Baltic Sea as presented in the BSAP. The results indicate that even relatively small divergence in the nutrient load quantification translates into relatively large differences in abatement cost for different Baltic Sea countries. A robust result, irrespective of differences in nutrient load assessments, is a conflict between abatement cost effectiveness and fairness, with relatively poor countries facing heavy abatement cost burdens for cost-effective international load abatement.

Costs of alien invasive species in Sweden.

The purpose of this paper is to present calculations of total costs of 13 alien invasive species (AIS) in Sweden. All species are subject to control by Swedish public authorities, and estimates for most AIS include either damage cost or actual control cost. The results indicate a total annual cost between approximately 1620 and 5080 million SEK, which correspond to SEK 175 and SEK 565 per capita in Sweden. The estimates are well within the range of similar calculations for other countries, but differ with respect to the composition of costs of different AIS. Whereas costs for the agricultural and forestry sectors dominate in most other studies, the costs of AIS in Sweden are more equally divided among different categories. The results also indicate that the highest costs are attributable to unintentionally introduced AIS and that the most reliable cost estimates are related to human and animal health.

Incomes, attitudes, and occurrences of invasive species: an application to signal crayfish in Sweden.

This article analyzes and carries out an econometric test of the explanatory power of economic and attitude variables for occurrences of the nonnative signal crayfish in Swedish waters. Signal crayfish are a carrier of plague which threatens the native noble crayfish with extinction. Crayfish are associated with recreational and cultural traditions in Sweden, which may run against environmental preferences for preserving native species. Econometric analysis is carried out using panel data at the municipality level with economic factors and attitudes as explanatory variables, which are derived from a simple dynamic harvesting model. A log-normal model is used for the regression analysis, and the results indicate significant impacts on occurrences of waters with signal crayfish of changes in both economic and attitude variables. Variables reflecting environmental and recreational preferences have unexpected signs, where the former variable has a positive and the latter a negative impact on occurrences of waters with signal crayfish. These effects are, however, counteracted by their respective interaction effect with income.

Effects of inland nitrogen transport and attenuation modeling on coastal nitrogen load abatement.

Modeling of the spatial distribution of nitrogen transport and attenuation from various inland sources and along different hydrological pathways to coastal waters is needed for relevant decisions on effective allocation of measures for coastal nitrogen load abatement. We identify, classify, and quantify uncertainties associated with main discrepancies between spatial process representations in different catchment-scale nitrogen transport-attenuation models. The results show important model differences, indicating scientific disagreement on the realistic spatial process understanding, representation, and quantification in nitrogen transport-attenuation modeling. By further developing solutions for economic optimization of spatially differentiated nitrogen source abatement in coastal catchments, we find this disagreement to considerably affect the economic efficiency of coastal nitrogen load reduction. It may also lead to stakeholder mistrust and conflict and needs to be recognized and handled in environmental policy.

The influence of metal source uncertainty on cost-effective allocation of mine water pollution abatement in catchments.

In mine water pollution abatement, it is commonly assumed that known mine waste sites are the major pollution sources, thus neglecting the possibility of significant contribution from other old and diffuse sources within a catchment. We investigate the influence of different types of pollution source uncertainty on cost-effective allocation of abatement measures for mine water pollution. A catchment-scale cost-minimization model is developed and applied to the catchment of the river Dalälven, Sweden, in order to exemplify important effects of such source uncertainty. Results indicate that, if the pollution distribution between point and diffuse sources is partly unknown, downstream abatement measures, such as constructed wetlands, at given compliance boundaries are often cost-effective. If downstream abatement measures are not practically feasible, the pollution source distribution between point and diffuse mine water sources is critical for cost-effective solutions to abatement measure allocation in catchments. In contrast, cost-effective solutions are relatively insensitive to uncertainty in total pollutant discharge from mine water sources.

Cost effective policies for alternative distributions of stochastic water pollution.

This study investigates the role for cost effective coastal water management with regard to different assumptions of probability distributions (normal and lognormal) of pollutant transports to coastal waters. The analytical results indicate a difference in costs for a given probability of achieving a certain pollutant load target whether a normal or lognormal distribution is assumed. For low standard deviations and confidence intervals, the normal distribution implies a lower cost while the opposite is true for relatively high standard deviations and confidence intervals. The associated cost effective charges and permit prices are higher for lognormal distributions than for normal distributions at relatively high confidence intervals and probabilities of achieving the target. An application to Himmerfjärden--an estuary south of Stockholm, Sweden--shows that the minimum costs of achieving a 50 per cent reduction in nitrogen load to the coast varies more for a lognormal than normal probability distribution. At high coefficient of variation and chosen probability of achieving the target, the minimum cost under a lognormal assumption can be three times as high as for a normal distribution.