Compression therapies for the treatment of venous leg ulcers: study protocol for a process evaluation in a randomised controlled trial, VenUS 6.

BACKGROUND: The VenUS 6 parallel-group randomised controlled trial (RCT) will compare the clinical and cost-effectiveness of compression wraps, two-layer compression bandage and evidence-based compression therapy, comprising of two-layers of hosiery or four-layer bandages, for healing time of venous leg ulcers. We will conduct an embedded process evaluation to evaluate the implementation of the trial and the various compression therapies and to gain a more in-depth understanding of trial participant and nursing staff views and experiences of these therapies. METHODS: This process evaluation will be a mixed-method study, embedded into a wider RCT. Qualitative data will be collected through semi-structured individual in-depth interviews with trial participants and staff members. Quantitative data will be collected using patient questionnaires and case report forms that are part of the main trial data collection process. Interview transcripts will be analysed using the Framework Analysis and interview data will be integrated with quantitative RCT data using the RE-AIM framework and the Pillar Integration Process. DISCUSSION: We describe the protocol for a process evaluation, designed to assess the implementation of the various venous leg ulcer compression therapies as evaluated in VenUS6, and the experiences of trial participants and nursing staff using these. This protocol provides one example of how an embedded mixed-method process evaluation can be conducted. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN 67321719 ( https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN67321719 ). Prospectively registered on 14 September 2020. Recruitment Infographic SWAT-MRC Hub for Trials Methodology Research SWAT repository #116. Registered on 13 April 2020. Retention Thank You Card SWAT-MRC Hub for Trials Methodology Research SWAT repository #119. Registered on 13 April 2020. Retention Newsletter SWAT-MRC Hub for Trials Methodology Research SWAT repository #28. Registered on 01 July 2007. Retention Pen SWAT-MRC Hub for Trials Methodology Research SWAT repository #92. Registered on 01 April 2019. PROTOCOL VERSION: V1.5, 26 May 2022.

Positive association of SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in wastewater and reported COVID-19 cases in Singapore - A study across three populations.

Wastewater testing of SARS-CoV-2 has been adopted globally and has shown to be a useful, non-intrusive surveillance method for monitoring COVID-19 trends. In Singapore, wastewater surveillance has been widely implemented across various sites and has facilitated timely COVID-19 management and response. From April 2020 to February 2022, SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in wastewater monitored across three populations, nationally, in the community, and in High Density Living Environments (HDLEs) were aggregated into indices and compared with reported COVID-19 cases and hospitalisations. Temporal trends and associations of these indices were compared descriptively and quantitatively, using Poisson Generalised Linear Models and Generalised Additive Models. National vaccination rates and vaccine breakthrough infection rates were additionally considered as confounders to shedding. Fitted models quantified the temporal associations between the indices and cases and COVID-related hospitalisations. At the national level, the wastewater index was a leading indicator of COVID-19 cases (p-value <0.001) of one week, and a contemporaneous association with hospitalisations (p-value <0.001) was observed. At finer levels of surveillance, the community index was observed to be contemporaneously associated with COVID-19 cases (p-value <0.001) and had a lagging association of 1-week in HDLEs (p-value <0.001). These temporal differences were attributed to differences in testing routines for different sites during the study period and the timeline of COVID-19 progression in infected persons. Overall, this study demonstrates the utility of wastewater surveillance in understanding underlying COVID-19 transmission and shedding levels, particularly for areas with falling or low case ascertainment. In such settings, wastewater surveillance showed to be a lead indicator of COVID-19 cases. The findings also underscore the potential of wastewater surveillance for monitoring other infectious diseases threats.

Viable mpox virus in the environment of a patient room.

We conducted a prospective environmental surveillance study to investigate the air, surface, dust, and water contamination of a room occupied by a patient infected with mpox virus (MPXV) at various stages of the illness. The patient tested positive for MPXV from a throat swab and skin lesions. Environmental sampling was conducted in a negative pressure room with 12 unidirectional high efficiency particulate air filter (HEPA) air changes per hour and daily cleaning of the surfaces. A total of 179 environmental samples were collected on days 7, 8, 13, and 21 of illness. Among the days of sampling, air, surface, and dust contamination showed the highest contamination rates on day 7 and 8 of illness, with a gradual decline to the lowest contamination level by day 21. Viable MPXV was isolated from surfaces and dust samples and no viable virus was isolated from the air and water samples.

Barriers and facilitators to use of compression therapy by people with venous leg ulcers: A qualitative exploration.

AIMS: To explore barriers to, and facilitators of, adherence to compression therapy, from the perspective of people with venous leg ulcers. DESIGN: An interpretive, qualitative, descriptive study involving interviews with patients. METHODS: Participants were purposively sampled from respondents to a survey exploring attitudes to compression therapy in people with venous leg ulcers. Sampling continued until data saturation: 25 interviews between December 2019 and July 2020. Inductive thematic analysis of interview transcripts was undertaken to create a framework for the data, followed by deductive analysis informed by the Common-Sense Model of Self-Regulation. RESULTS: A range of knowledge and understanding about the cause of venous leg ulcers and the mechanisms of compression therapy was demonstrated, which was not particularly related to adherence. Participants talked about their experience with different compression methods and their concerns about the length of time healing could take. They also spoke about aspects of the organization of services which affected their care. CONCLUSION: Identifying specific, individual barriers/facilitators to compression therapy is not simple, rather factors combine to make adherence more or less likely or possible. There was no clear relationship between an understanding of the cause of VLUs or the mechanism of compression therapy and adherence; different compression therapies presented different challenges for patients; unintentional non-adherence was frequently mentioned; and the organization of services could impact on adherence. Ways in which people could be supported to adhere to compression therapy are indicated. Implications for practice include issues relating to communication with patients; taking into account patients' lifestyles and ensuring that they know about useful 'aids'; providing services that are accessible and provide continuity of appropriately trained staff; minimizing unintentional non-adherence; and acknowledging that healthcare professionals will always need to support/advise those who cannot tolerate compression. IMPACT: Compression therapy is a cost-effective, evidence-based treatment for venous leg ulcers. However, there is evidence that patients do not always adhere to this therapy and there is limited research investigating reasons why patients do not wear compression. The study found no clear relationship between an understanding of the cause of VLUs or the mechanism of compression therapy and adherence; that different compression therapies presented different challenges for patients; that unintentional non-adherence was frequently mentioned and that the organization of services could impact on adherence. Attending to these findings offers the opportunity to increase the proportion of people undergoing appropriate compression therapy and achieving complete wound healing, the main outcome desired by this group. PATIENT/PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: A patient representative sits on the Study Steering Group, contributing to the work from developing the study protocol and interview schedule to interpretation and discussion of findings. Members of a Wounds Research Patient and Public Involvement Forum were consulted about interview questions.

Isolation and Genetic Characterization of Japanese Encephalitis Virus Two Decades after Its Elimination in Singapore.

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is an important arbovirus in Asia that can cause serious neurological disease. JEV is transmitted by mosquitoes in an enzootic cycle involving porcine and avian reservoirs, in which humans are accidental, dead-end hosts. JEV is currently not endemic in Singapore, after pig farming was abolished in 1992; the last known human case was reported in 2005. However, due to its location along the East-Asian Australasian Flyway (EAAF), Singapore is vulnerable to JEV re-introduction from the endemic regions. Serological and genetic evidence in the last decade suggests JEV's presence in the local fauna. In the present study, we report the genetic characterization and the first isolation of JEV from 3214 mosquito pools consisting of 41,843 Culex mosquitoes, which were trapped from April 2014 to May 2021. The findings demonstrated the presence of genotype I of JEV (n = 10), in contrast to the previous reports of the presence of genotype II of JEV in Singapore. The genetic analyses also suggested that JEV has entered Singapore on several occasions and has potentially established an enzootic cycle in the local fauna. These observations have important implications in the risk assessment and the control of Japanese encephalitis in non-endemic countries, such as Singapore, that are at risk for JEV transmission.

"Negotiating a new normality" - a longitudinal qualitative exploration of the meaning of living with an open surgical wound.

PURPOSE: Little is known about the experiences of people living with open surgical wounds. These wounds are common and predominantly affect young and actively working people. The aim of this qualitative study was to explore the meaning of living with open surgical wounds. METHODS: A qualitative exploratory study was conducted. We collected data using two individual interviews with each of ten participants (aged between 18-73 years) who had open surgical wounds. Our analytical approach was based on qualitative content analysis. Methods are reported using COREQ guidelines. RESULTS: We found that the meaning of living with open surgical wounds is shaped by five subthemes: "enduring healing", "life disruption", "adapting to a new reality", "striving for healing" and "returning to normal life;" all under an overarching theme of "negotiating a new normality". CONCLUSION: Participants' well-being and everyday living are greatly impacted by open surgical wounds. Findings from this study emphasize that open surgical wounds are a long-term condition with a typical "chronicity" trajectory; this brings a new perspective to previous findings of studies on living with complex wounds. This study has also highlighted areas for further research, related to improving individuals' experience of living with open surgical wounds.

What promotes or prevents greater use of appropriate compression in people with venous leg ulcers? A qualitative interview study with nurses in the north of England using the Theoretical Domains Framework.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate factors that promote and prevent the use of compression therapy in people with venous leg ulcers. DESIGN: Qualitative interview study with nurses using the Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF). SETTING: Three National Health Service Trusts in England. PARTICIPANTS: Purposive sample of 15 nurses delivering wound care. RESULTS: Nurses described factors which made provision of compression therapy challenging. Organisational barriers (TDF domains environmental context and resources/knowledge, skills/behavioural regulation) included heavy/increasing caseloads; lack of knowledge/skills and the provision of training; and prescribing issues (variations in bandaging systems/whether nurses could prescribe). Absence of specialist leg ulcer services to refer patients into was perceived as a barrier to providing optimal care by some community-based nurses. Compression use was perceived to be facilitated by clinics for timely initial assessment; continuity of staff and good liaison between vascular/leg ulcer clinics and community teams; clear local policies and care pathways; and opportunities for training such as 'shadowing' in vascular/leg ulcer clinics. Patient engagement barriers (TDF domains goals/beliefs about consequences) focused on getting patients 'on board' with compression, and supporting them in using it. Clear explanations were seen as key in promoting compression use. CONCLUSIONS: Rising workload pressures present significant challenges to enhancing leg ulcer services. There may be opportunities to develop facilitated approaches to enable community nursing teams to make changes to practice, enhancing quality of patient care. The majority of venous leg ulcers could be managed in the community without referral to specialist community services if issues relating to workloads/skills/training are addressed. Barriers to promoting compression use could also be targeted, for example, through the development of clear patient information leaflets. While the patient engagement barriers may be easier/quicker to address than organisational barriers, unless organisational barriers are addressed it seems unlikely that all people who would benefit from compression therapy will receive it.

The use of community problem solving in undergraduate nurse education: A literature review.

BACKGROUND: To effectively realise their role in health promotion nurses need a clear understanding of the social determinants of health. In 1987 the WHO recommended that students participate in meaningful community based problem-solving to prepare them for health promotion practice, including actual or simulated community health projects. OBJECTIVE: To explore the use of community problem-solving in undergraduate nurse education and its impact on students' understanding of population health. METHOD: This literature review used a five-stage iterative method, to explore the following research question; how is community problem-solving being used in undergraduate nurse education and to what effect? Following a systematic database search (CINAHL, MEDLINE, ERIC and ProQuest BNI), forward citation and snowballing, 82 studies were screened against the inclusion and exclusion criteria. A critical appraisal of the studies was conducted using COREQ and data was extracted using a summary table. Thematic analysis was used to identify major themes from the literature. RESULTS: Ten studies were identified which explore the use of community problem-solving these provide some useful insight into the design, application and the apparent benefits of the approach in undergraduate nurse education. Three key themes emerge: students develop a broader vison of their future role in health promotion, a deeper understanding of community and social determinants, as well as identifying the role of community assets for health. Only one of the studies included in the review evaluated the impact of community problem-solving on health promotion practice after graduation. CONCLUSION: The concept of CPS in undergraduate nurse education has been around for many years, but there has never been a comprehensive review of its implementation or effectiveness. Research into its impact is needed to examine whether it increases students' understanding of their future role in health promotion. If nurses are expected to play a key role in public health, nurse educators need research evidence to support the design and delivery of CPS to implement a population health approach to undergraduate nurse education.

The use of anticoagulants for rodent control in a mixed-use urban environmefent in Singapore: A controlled interrupted time series analysis.

Vector control remains an important strategy in preventing rodent-borne diseases. Studies quantifying the impact of anticoagulant bait use on rodent populations are scarce in tropical settings. This study examined the impact of anticoagulant bait use on three measures of rodent activity in Singapore to inform rodent-borne disease control strategies. Using a controlled interrupted time-series analytical design with negative binomial and linear regression models, the average rodent activity levels were compared in the pre- and post-intervention periods. There was a 62.7% (Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR): 0.373, 95% CI: [0.224, 0.620]) reduction in the number of rodents caught, a 25.8-unit (coefficient = -25.829, 95% CI: [-29.855, -21.804]) reduction in the number of 30 g/unit baits consumed and a 61.9% (IRR: 0.381, 95% CI: [0.218, 0.665]) reduction in the number of marred bait stations relative to the pre-intervention period. There was a rise in all three outcome measures within four months after the post-intervention period. This study provided strong evidence that anticoagulant baits substantially reduces rodent activity. The population resurgence after the post-intervention period reinforces the importance of timing the resumption of control measures aimed at reducing rodent-borne disease transmission.

The accuracy of clinician predictions of survival in the Prognosis in Palliative care Study II (PiPS2): A prospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic information is important for patients with cancer, their families, and clinicians. In practice, survival predictions are made by clinicians based on their experience, judgement, and intuition. Previous studies have reported that clinicians' survival predictions are often inaccurate. This study reports a secondary analysis of data from the Prognosis in Palliative care Study II (PiPS2) to assess the accuracy of survival estimates made by doctors and nurses. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Adult patients (n = 1833) with incurable, locally advanced or metastatic cancer, recently referred to palliative care services (community teams, hospital teams, and inpatient palliative care units) were recruited. Doctors (n = 431) and nurses (n = 777) provided independent prognostic predictions and an agreed multi-professional prediction for each patient. Clinicians provided prognostic estimates in several formats including predictions about length of survival and probability of surviving to certain time points. There was a minimum follow up of three months or until death (whichever was sooner; maximum follow-up 783 days). Agreed multi-professional predictions about whether patients would survive for days, weeks or months+ were accurate on 61.9% of occasions. The positive predictive value of clinicians' predictions about imminent death (within one week) was 77% for doctors and 79% for nurses. The sensitivity of these predictions was low (37% and 35% respectively). Specific predictions about how many weeks patients would survive were not very accurate but showed good discrimination (patients estimated to survive for shorted periods had worse outcomes). The accuracy of clinicians' probabilistic predictions (assessed using Brier's scores) was consistently better than chance, improved with proximity to death and showed good discrimination between groups of patients with different survival outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Using a variety of different approaches, this study found that clinicians predictions of survival show good discrimination and accuracy, regardless of whether the predictions are about how long or how likely patients are to survive. Accuracy improves with proximity to death. Although the positive predictive value of estimates of imminent death are relatively high, the sensitivity of such predictions is relatively low. Despite limitations, the clinical prediction of survival should remain the benchmark against which any innovations in prognostication are judged. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN13688211. http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN13688211.

Survey of rodent-borne pathogens in Singapore reveals the circulation of Leptospira spp., Seoul hantavirus, and Rickettsia typhi.

Rodents living alongside humans increases the probability of encounter and also the transmission of rodent-borne diseases. Singapore's cosmopolitan urban landscape provides a perfect setting to study the prevalence of four rodent-borne pathogens: Seoul hantavirus (SEOV), Leptospira species, Rickettsia typhi and Yersinia pestis, and identify the potential risk factors which may influence rodent density and transmission of rodent-borne diseases. A total of 1143 rodents were trapped from 10 unique landscape structures throughout Singapore. Real-time quantitative Polymerase Chain Reactions were used to detect pathogenic and intermediate Leptospira spp. and Yersinia pestis, whereas the seroprevalence of SEOV and R. typhi were analysed by Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay and Immunofluorescence Assay respectively. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the association between prevalence of infection in rodent reservoirs and risk factors. Most of the rodents were caught in public residential developments (62.2%). Among the tested rodents, 42.4% were infected with Leptospira spp., while 35.5% and 32.2% were seropositive for SEOV and R. typhi respectively, whereas Yersinia pestis was not detected. Furthermore, risk factors including habitat, species, gender, and weight of rodents, influenced prevalence of infection to a varying extent. This study highlights the presence of Leptospira spp., SEOV and R. typhi in Singapore's rodent population, suggesting the need for effective rodent management and sanitation strategies to prevent further circulation and transmission to humans.

Development of an efficient wastewater testing protocol for high-throughput country-wide SARS-CoV-2 monitoring.

Wastewater-based surveillance has been widely used as a non-intrusive tool to monitor population-level transmission of COVID-19. Although various approaches are available to concentrate viruses from wastewater samples, scalable methods remain limited. Here, we sought to identify and evaluate SARS-CoV-2 virus concentration protocols for high-throughput wastewater testing. A total of twelve protocols for polyethylene glycol (PEG) precipitation and four protocols for ultrafiltration-based approaches were evaluated across two phases. The first phase entailed an initial evaluation using a small sample set, while the second phase further evaluated five protocols using wastewater samples of varying SARS-CoV-2 concentrations. Permutations in the pre-concentration, virus concentration and RNA extraction steps were evaluated. Among PEG-based methods, SARS-CoV-2 virus recovery was optimal with 1) the removal of debris prior to processing, 2) 2 h to 24 h incubation with 8% PEG at 4 °C, 3) 4000 xg or 14,000 xg centrifugation, and 4) a column-based RNA extraction method, yielding virus recovery of 42.4-52.5%. Similarly, the optimal protocol for ultrafiltration included 1) the removal of debris prior to processing, 2) ultrafiltration, and 3) a column-based RNA extraction method, yielding a recovery of 38.2%. This study also revealed that SARS-CoV-2 RNA recovery for samples with higher virus concentration were less sensitive to changes in the PEG method, but permutations in the PEG protocol could significantly impact virus yields when wastewater samples with lower SARS-CoV-2 RNA were used. Although both PEG precipitation and ultrafiltration methods resulted in similar SARS-CoV-2 RNA recoveries, the former method is more cost-effective while the latter method provided operational efficiency as it required a shorter turn-around-time (PEG precipitation, 9-23 h; Ultrafiltration, 5 h). The decision on which method to adopt will thus depend on the use-case for wastewater testing, and the need for cost-effectiveness, sensitivity, operational feasibility and scalability.

Preregistration adult nursing programmes and promotion of a population health agenda: an investigation.

Promoting health and preventing ill health are key standards of proficiency for pre-registration nursing education in the UK. The knowledge and skills required to fulfil this role is dependent on students developing a clear understanding of population health during their educational experience. The websites of the 60 undergraduate adult nursing programmes in England that lead to registration were explored, to see how the population health agenda is presented in the information for future candidates. It was found that only 26% of universities promote a population health agenda in the general description of the adult nursing programme, emphasising clinical skills teaching and partnerships with hospital trusts for placement provision. To embrace the breadth of 21st century nursing practice, universities should be marketing nursing proficiencies and raising awareness of the wider context in which care is delivered during recruitment. This approach to branding has the potential to challenge stereotypes and widen participation.

Glucagon-like peptide 2 analogues in the treatment of intestinal failure: A qualitative exploration of the views of patients and their families in decision making.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with short bowel syndrome and type 3 intestinal failure (SBS-IF) are dependent on parenteral nutrition (PN), a lifesaving treatment but inconvenient and with risks. Glucagon-like peptide 2 analogue (teduglutide) can reduce patients' need for PN. However, it comes with the risk of a number of side effects. This qualitative study investigated patients' decision making process to start teduglutide and how family members contributed to the decision. METHODS: In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted with nine participants, six patients with SBS-IF and three family members about the decision to take teduglutide. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and analysed using framework analysis. RESULTS: The prominent motivation for taking teduglutide (Revestive® Takeda Pharmaceuticals Limited) was reducing or stopping PN. Other motivations were to help others by assisting in developing the knowledge base around teduglutide, patients felt that they had nothing to lose by trying the drug and the support of relatives. The reasons patients considered not taking the drug were that they had accepted being on PN, the potential side effects of teduglutide and undergoing extra monitoring. However, the monitoring programme also acted as a motivator providing reassurance that patients would be observed and supported with side effects. Family members were happy to support patients' decision to try teduglutide, although they had more reservations, indicating a higher risk threshold. CONCLUSION: Patients considered potential benefits of teduglutide outweighed any disadvantages. Relatives, although supportive, had more reservations.

Non-intrusive wastewater surveillance for monitoring of a residential building for COVID-19 cases.

Wastewater-based surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 has been used for the early warning of transmission or objective trending of the population-level disease prevalence. Here, we describe a new use-case of conducting targeted wastewater surveillance to complement clinical testing for case identification in a small community at risk of COVID-19 transmission. On 2 July 2020, a cluster of COVID-19 cases in two unrelated households residing on different floors in the same stack of an apartment building was reported in Singapore. After cases were conveyed to healthcare facilities and six healthy household contacts were quarantined in their respective apartments, wastewater surveillance was implemented for the entire residential block. SARS-CoV-2 was subsequently detected in wastewaters in an increasing frequency and concentration, despite the absence of confirmed COVID-19 cases, suggesting the presence of fresh case/s in the building. Phone interviews of six residents in quarantine revealed that no one was symptomatic (fever/respiratory illness). However, when nasopharyngeal swabs from six quarantined residents were tested by PCR tests, one was positive for SARS-CoV-2. The positive case reported episodes of diarrhea and the case's stool sample was also positive for SARS-CoV-2, explaining the SARS-CoV-2 spikes observed in wastewaters. After the case was conveyed to a healthcare facility, wastewaters continued to yield positive signals for five days, though with a decreasing intensity. This was attributed to the return of recovered cases, who had continued to shed the virus. Our findings demonstrate the utility of wastewater surveillance as a non-intrusive tool to monitor high-risk COVID-19 premises, which is able to trigger individual tests for case detection, highlighting a new use-case for wastewater testing.

Study recruitment factors in advanced cancer: the Prognosis in Palliative care Study II (PiPS2) - a multicentre, prospective, observational cohort project.

OBJECTIVES: The Prognosis in Palliative care Study II (PiPS2) was a large multicentre observational study validating prognostic tools in patients with advanced cancer. Many palliative care studies fail to reach their recruitment target. To inform future studies, PiPS2 rigorously monitored and identified any potential recruitment barriers. METHODS: Key recruitment stages (ie, whether patients were eligible for the study, approached by the researchers and whether consent was obtained for enrolment) were monitored via comprehensive screening logs at participating sites (inpatient hospices, hospitals and community palliative care teams). The reasons for patients' ineligibility, inaccessibility or decision not to consent were documented. RESULTS: 17 014 patients were screened across 27 participating sites over a 20-month recruitment period. Of those, 4642 (27%) were ineligible for participation in the study primarily due to non-cancer diagnoses. Of 12 372 eligible patients, 9073 (73%) were not approached, the most common reason being a clinical decision not to do so. Other reasons included patients' death or discharge before they were approached by the researchers. Of the 3299 approached patients, 1458 (44%) declined participation mainly because of feeling too unwell, experiencing severe distress or having other competing priorities. 11% (n=1841/17 014) of patients screened were enrolled in the study, representing 15% (n=1841/12 372) of eligible patients. Different recruitment patterns were observed across inpatient hospice, hospital and community palliative care teams. CONCLUSIONS: The main barrier to recruitment was 'accessing' potentially eligible patients. Monitoring key recruitment stages may help to identify barriers and facilitators to enrolment and allow results to be put into better context. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN13688211.

Prognostic models of survival in patients with advanced incurable cancer: the PiPS2 observational study.

BACKGROUND: The Prognosis in Palliative care Study (PiPS) prognostic survival models predict survival in patients with incurable cancer. PiPS-A (Prognosis in Palliative care Study - All), which involved clinical observations only, and PiPS-B (Prognosis in Palliative care Study - Blood), which additionally required blood test results, consist of 14- and 56-day models that combine to create survival risk categories: 'days', 'weeks' and 'months+'. OBJECTIVES: The primary objectives were to compare PIPS-B risk categories against agreed multiprofessional estimates of survival and to validate PiPS-A and PiPS-B. The secondary objectives were to validate other prognostic models, to assess the acceptability of the models to patients, carers and health-care professionals and to identify barriers to and facilitators of clinical use. DESIGN: This was a national, multicentre, prospective, observational, cohort study with a nested qualitative substudy using interviews with patients, carers and health-care professionals. SETTING: Community, hospital and hospice palliative care services across England and Wales. PARTICIPANTS: For the validation study, the participants were adults with incurable cancer, with or without capacity to consent, who had been recently referred to palliative care services and had sufficient English language. For the qualitative substudy, a subset of participants in the validation study took part, along with informal carers, patients who declined to participate in the main study and health-care professionals. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: For the validation study, the primary outcomes were survival, clinical prediction of survival and PiPS-B risk category predictions. The secondary outcomes were predictions of PiPS-A and other prognostic models. For the qualitative substudy, the main outcomes were participants' views about prognostication and the use of prognostic models. RESULTS: For the validation study, 1833 participants were recruited. PiPS-B risk categories were as accurate as agreed multiprofessional estimates of survival (61%; p = 0.851). Discrimination of the PiPS-B 14-day model (c-statistic 0.837, 95% confidence interval 0.810 to 0.863) and the PiPS-B 56-day model (c-statistic 0.810, 95% confidence interval 0.788 to 0.832) was excellent. The PiPS-B 14-day model showed some overfitting (calibration in the large -0.202, 95% confidence interval -0.364 to -0.039; calibration slope 0.840, 95% confidence interval 0.730 to 0.950). The PiPS-B 56-day model was well-calibrated (calibration in the large 0.152, 95% confidence interval 0.030 to 0.273; calibration slope 0.914, 95% confidence interval 0.808 to 1.02). PiPS-A risk categories were less accurate than agreed multiprofessional estimates of survival (p < 0.001). The PiPS-A 14-day model (c-statistic 0.825, 95% confidence interval 0.803 to 0.848; calibration in the large -0.037, 95% confidence interval -0.168 to 0.095; calibration slope 0.981, 95% confidence interval 0.872 to 1.09) and the PiPS-A 56-day model (c-statistic 0.776, 95% confidence interval 0.755 to 0.797; calibration in the large 0.109, 95% confidence interval 0.002 to 0.215; calibration slope 0.946, 95% confidence interval 0.842 to 1.05) had excellent or reasonably good discrimination and calibration. Other prognostic models were also validated. Where comparisons were possible, the other prognostic models performed less well than PiPS-B. For the qualitative substudy, 32 health-care professionals, 29 patients and 20 carers were interviewed. The majority of patients and carers expressed a desire for prognostic information and said that PiPS could be helpful. Health-care professionals said that PiPS was user friendly and may be helpful for decision-making and care-planning. The need for a blood test for PiPS-B was considered a limitation. LIMITATIONS: The results may not be generalisable to other populations. CONCLUSIONS: PiPS-B risk categories are as accurate as agreed multiprofessional estimates of survival. PiPS-A categories are less accurate. Patients, carers and health-care professionals regard PiPS as potentially helpful in clinical practice. FUTURE WORK: A study to evaluate the impact of introducing PiPS into routine clinical practice is needed. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN13688211. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 28. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

A prognosis is a prediction about how long someone will live after a diagnosis of illness. The Prognosis in Palliative care Study (PiPS) tools [PiPS-A (Prognosis in Palliative care Study ­ All) and PiPS-B (Prognosis in Palliative care Study ­ Blood), respectively] were designed to predict survival in patients with incurable cancer. Previously, they were found to be as accurate as health-care professionals. The purpose of this study was to find out whether PiPS was more accurate at prognosticating than health-care professionals, to evaluate other prognostic tools and to ask patients, their carers and health-care professionals what they thought about using them. We studied 1833 patients with advanced cancer and calculated their PiPS score and other prognostic scores. We asked health-care professionals to estimate how long the patients would live. We then followed up the patients to find out how long they actually lived and if the predictions made by health-care professionals were as accurate as the predictions made by the prognostic tools. We interviewed patients, their carers and health-care professionals to ask them what they thought about using these prognostic tools. We found that PiPS-B was as accurate as the combined wisdom of a doctor and a nurse at predicting whether patients would live for 'days', 'weeks' or 'months+'. We found that PiPS-A predictions were not as accurate as predictions made by health-care professionals. We found that (where direct comparisons could be made) PiPS-B was better than other prognostic tools. Finally, we found that patients, carers and health-care professionals thought that PiPS tools could be helpful in clinical practice because they would be less subjective than clinicians' intuition. This means that PiPS-B could be considered as a tool to support clinician predictions of survival and may lead to patients and families being able to take more control at the end of their lives. Further research will be required to investigate whether or not this approach actually leads to improvements in care.