Can internal range structure predict range shifts?

Poleward and uphill range shifts are a common-but variable-response to climate change. We lack understanding regarding this interspecific variation; for example, functional traits show weak or mixed ability to predict range shifts. Characteristics of species' ranges may enhance prediction of range shifts. However, the explanatory power of many range characteristics-especially within-range abundance patterns-remains untested. Here, we introduce a hypothesis framework for predicting range-limit population trends and range shifts from the internal structure of the geographic range, specifically range edge hardness, defined as abundance within range edges relative to the whole range. The inertia hypothesis predicts that high edge abundance facilitates expansions along the leading range edge but creates inertia (either more individuals must disperse or perish) at the trailing range edge such that the trailing edge recedes slowly. In contrast, the limitation hypothesis suggests that hard range edges are the signature of strong limits (e.g. biotic interactions) that force faster contraction of the trailing edge but block expansions at the leading edge of the range. Using a long-term avian monitoring dataset from northern Minnesota, USA, we estimated population trends for 35 trailing-edge species and 18 leading-edge species and modelled their population trends as a function of range edge hardness derived from eBird data. We found limited evidence of associations between range edge hardness and range-limit population trends. Trailing-edge species with harder range edges were slightly more likely to be declining, demonstrating weak support for the limitation hypothesis. In contrast, leading-edge species with harder range edges were slightly more likely to be increasing, demonstrating weak support for the inertia hypothesis. These opposing results for the leading and trailing range edges might suggest that different mechanisms underpin range expansions and contractions, respectively. As data and state-of-the-art modelling efforts continue to proliferate, we will be ever better equipped to map abundance patterns within species' ranges, offering opportunities to anticipate range shifts through the lens of the geographic range.

Incorporating weather in counts and trends of migrating Common Nighthawks.

Effective conservation planning for species of concern requires long-term monitoring data that can accurately estimate population trends. Supplemental or alternative methods for estimating population trends are necessary for species that are poorly sampled by traditional breeding bird survey methods. Counts of migrating birds are commonly used to assess raptor population trends and could be useful for additional taxa that migrate diurnally and are difficult to monitor during the breeding season. In North America, the Common Nighthawk (Chordeiles minor) is challenging to detect during comprehensive dawn surveys like the North American Breeding Bird Survey and is considered a species of conservation concern because of steep population declines across its range. We conducted standardized evening counts of migrating Common Nighthawks at a fixed survey location along western Lake Superior each autumn from 2008 to 2022. To document peak migration activity, counts spanned ~3 hours each evening from mid-August to early September for a mean of 19.4 ± 2.4 days. These count data were then used to assess the effects of weather on daily counts and high-count days and to calculate population trends over this 15-year period. We used generalized linear mixed effects models to determine the relationship between daily counts and high-count days (i.e., ≥1000 migrating nighthawks) and weather variables. Additionally, using our 15-year dataset, we calculated a geometric mean passage rate that accounted for annual differences in weather to estimate count trends. Annual counts averaged ~18,000 (min = 2514, max = 32,837) individuals and high-count days occurred 56 times throughout the course of the study. Model results indicated lighter, westerly winds and warmer temperatures were associated with higher daily counts and greater probability of a large migratory flight. Results from the trend analyses suggest stable or non-significantly increasing trends for Common Nighthawks during this monitoring period; however, the trend models explained a relatively low percentage of the variation in the counts. Results from a power analysis suggest that continued monitoring efforts and adjustments with weather covariates will be necessary to effectively use visible migration count data to estimate Common Nighthawk trends. Establishing annual monitoring programs that use standardized visual counts to document Common Nighthawk migration at key sites across North America may provide supplemental information useful for population trend estimates of this species. Therefore, we advocate for the use of visible migration counts to monitor Common Nighthawks in North America and emphasize the value of long-term monitoring efforts.

Des données de suivi à long terme permettant de calculer avec précision les tendances démographiques sont garantes d'une planification réussie de la conservation d'espèces préoccupantes. Des méthodes complémentaires ou alternatives d'estimation des tendances démographiques sont nécessaires dans le cas d'espèces mal échantillonnées par les méthodes traditionnelles de relevé d'oiseaux nicheurs. Le dénombrement d'oiseaux migrateurs est couramment utilisé pour évaluer la tendance des populations de rapaces et pourrait servir pour d'autres taxons qui migrent de jour et sont difficiles à suivre pendant la saison de nidification. En Amérique du Nord, l'Engoulevent d'Amérique (Chordeiles minor) est difficile à détecter au cours de relevés généraux réalisés à l'aube, tel le Relevé des oiseaux nicheurs d'Amérique du Nord (BBS), et est considéré comme une espèce dont la conservation est préoccupante en raison de la baisse marquée de ses effectifs dans toute son aire de répartition. Nous avons effectué des comptages en soirée standardisés d'engoulevents en migration à un site fixe localisé du côté ouest du lac Supérieur, chaque automne de 2008 à 2022. Afin de caractériser le pic d'activité migratoire, les comptages ont duré ~3 heures chaque soir de la mi-août au début de septembre, durant 19,4 ± 2,4 jours en moyenne. Ces données ont ensuite servi pour évaluer l'effet des conditions météorologiques sur les comptages quotidiens et les jours d'activité migratoire élevée et calculer la tendance démographique au cours de ces 15 ans. Nous avons utilisé des modèles linéaires généralisés à effets mixtes pour déterminer la relation entre les comptages quotidiens et les jours d'activité migratoire élevée (c.-à-d. ≥1000 engoulevents) et les variables météorologiques. En outre, en utilisant notre jeu de données sur 15 ans, nous avons calculé la moyenne géométrique du taux de passage tenant compte des différences météorologiques annuelles afin d'estimer la tendance des comptages. La moyenne des comptages annuels était de ~18 000 (min = 2514, max = 32 837) individus et nous avons observé 56 cas d'activité migratoire élevée au cours de l'étude. Les résultats du modèle ont indiqué que des vents plus légers et de l'ouest, et des températures plus chaudes étaient associés à des comptages quotidiens plus élevés et à une plus grande probabilité d'une activité migratoire importante. Les résultats de l'analyse des tendances indiquent que les engoulevents ont montré une tendance stable ou en augmentation non significative au cours de cette période de suivi; cependant, les modèles de tendances n'ont expliqué qu'un pourcentage relativement faible de la variation des comptages. Les résultats d'une analyse de puissance révèlent que des suivis réguliers et des ajustements avec des covariables météorologiques seront nécessaires pour utiliser efficacement les données de comptages visuels réalisés en migration afin d'estimer la tendance de l'Engoulevent d'Amérique. La mise en place d'un programme de suivis annuels fondés sur des comptages visuels standardisés destiné à caractériser la migration de l'Engoulevent d'Amérique sur des sites clés en Amérique du Nord pourrait fournir des informations supplémentaires utiles pour estimer les tendances démographiques de cette espèce. Par conséquent, nous préconisons l'utilisation de comptages visuels en migration pour suivre l'Engoulevent d'Amérique en Amérique du Nord et soulignons la valeur de suivis à long terme.

Effects of stand age, tree species, and climate on water table fluctuations and estimated evapotranspiration in managed peatland forests.

Lowland conifer forests dominated by black spruce (Picea mariana) and tamarack (Larix laricina) typically occur in peatlands in the boreal North American forest with near-surface water tables throughout the year. These forests are ecologically and economically important resources that may be impacted by climate change. However, information characterizing effects of forest disturbance, such as even-aged harvest on water table dynamics is needed to evaluate which forest tree species cover types are most hydrologically susceptible to even-aged harvest and changes in precipitation. We used a chronosequence approach to evaluate water table fluctuations and evapotranspiration across four stand age classes (<10, 15-30, 40-80, and >100-years old) and three distinct forest cover types (productive black spruce, stagnant black spruce, and tamarack) for a period of three years in Minnesota, USA. In general, there is limited evidence for elevated water tables in the younger age classes; the <10-year age class had no significant difference in mean weekly water table depth compared to the older age classes across all cover types. Estimated actual daily evapotranspiration (ET) generally agreed with the water table observations, with the exception of the tamarack cover type where ET was significantly lower in the <10-year age class. Productive black spruce sites that are 40-80-years old had higher evapotranspiration, and lower water table, possibly reflecting increased transpiration associated with the stem exclusion stage of stand development. Tamarack in the 40-80-year age class had higher water tables but no difference in ET compared to all other age classes, indicating that other external factors are driving higher water tables in that age class. To evaluate susceptibility to changing climate, we also assessed the sensitivity and response of water table dynamics to pronounced differences in growing season precipitation that occurred across study years. In general, tamarack forests are more sensitive to changes in precipitation compared to the two black spruce forest cover types. These findings can inform expected responses of site hydrology for a range of precipitation scenarios that may occur under future climate and be used by forest managers to evaluate hydrologic impacts of forest management activities across lowland conifer forest cover types.

Potential impacts of emerald ash borer and adaptation strategies on wildlife communities in black ash wetlands.

Black ash wetlands cover approximately 1.2 million ha of wetland forest in the western Great Lakes region, providing critical habitat for wildlife. The future of these wetlands is critically threatened by a variety of factors, including emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis; emerald ash borer [EAB]), which has been eliminating native populations of otherwise healthy ash throughout the Great Lakes region since it was discovered in 2002. To quantify the potential impacts of tree mortality from EAB on wildlife communities, we measured seasonal bird, mammal, and amphibian diversity in black ash wetlands using a dual approach: (1) documenting bird and amphibian species across 27 mature reference black ash wetlands in northern Minnesota, USA and (2) assessing how bird, mammal, and amphibian communities respond to experimental manipulations of black ash forests that emulate mortality and management strategies related to the potential impact of EAB. In total, 85 wildlife species were recorded for the entire study including 57 bird species, 5 amphibian species, and 23 mammal species. Results from the reference sites show that hydrologic regime, percentage of ash canopy cover, and understory cover were important habitat characteristics for bird and amphibian communities. Results from the experimental sites show there may be short-term increases in species richness for mammal and bird communities associated with changes in forest structure due to ash mortality; however, anticipated changes resulting from EAB-caused mortality, particularly the conversion of these sites to non-forested wetlands, will lead to significant shifts in bird and mammal community composition. Loss of ash may cause declines in forest-dependent species and increases in open-canopy and wetland-associated species. Additionally, whereas increased ponding extent and longer hydroperiods may be beneficial for some amphibian species, the loss of the forest canopy will result in an overall decrease in bird diversity and reduce forest connectivity for all species. Our results indicate the potential for significant large-scale impacts of black ash mortality on forest-associated wildlife. Management strategies that focus on establishing alternative trees species to maintain long-term forest cover and structural complexity in these wetlands will help to maintain and conserve wildlife diversity.