Application of the Estimand Framework to Anesthesia Trials.

SUMMARY: Events occurring after randomization, such as use of rescue medication, treatment discontinuation, or death, are common in randomized trials. These events can change either the existence or interpretation of the outcome of interest. However, appropriate handling of these intercurrent events is often unclear. The International Council for Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Pharmaceuticals for Human Use (ICH) E9(R1) addendum introduced the estimand framework, which aligns trial objectives with the design, conduct, statistical analysis, and interpretation of results. This article describes how the estimand framework can be used in anesthesia trials to precisely define the treatment effect to be estimated, key attributes of an estimand, common intercurrent events in anesthesia trials with strategies for handling them, and use of the estimand framework in a hypothetical anesthesia trial on postoperative delirium. When planning anesthesia trials, clearly defining the estimand is vital to ensure that what is being estimated is clearly understood, is clinically relevant, and helps answer the clinical questions of interest.

Impact of childhood 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction on adult pneumonia hospitalisations in Mongolia: a time series analysis.

Background: Few studies have assessed the potential indirect effects of childhood pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) programs on the adult pneumonia burden in resource-limited settings. We evaluated the impact of childhood PCV13 immunisation on adult all-cause pneumonia following a phased program introduction from 2016. Methods: We conducted a time-series analysis to assess changes in pneumonia hospitalisation incidence at four district hospitals in Mongolia. Adults (≥18 years) that met the clinical case definition for all-cause pneumonia were enrolled. A negative binomial mixed-effects model was used to assess the impact of PCV13 introduction on monthly counts of pneumonia admissions from January 2015-February 2022. We also performed a restricted analysis excluding the COVID-19 pandemic period. All models were stratified by age and assessed separately. Additional analyses assessed the robustness of our findings. Findings: The average annual incidence of all-cause pneumonia hospitalisation was highest in adults 65+ years (62.81 per 10,000 population) and declined with decreasing age. After adjusting for the COVID-19 pandemic period, we found that rates of pneumonia hospitalisation remained largely unchanged over time. We did not observe a reduction in pneumonia hospitalisation in any age group. Results from restricted and sensitivity analyses were comparable to the primary results, finding limited evidence of a reduced pneumonia burden. Interpretation: We did not find evidence of indirect protection against all-cause pneumonia in adults following childhood PCV13 introduction. Direct pneumococcal vaccination and other interventions should be considered to reduce burden of pneumonia among older adults. Funding: Pfizer clinical research collaboration agreement (contract number: WI236621).

Polygenic Risk Scores and the Risk of Childhood Overweight/Obesity in Association With the Consumption of Sweetened Beverages: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

Background: Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) and non-nutritive sweetened beverage (NNSB) consumption is associated with obesity and are targets for population-level dietary interventions. In children (<16 years), we evaluate whether SSB or NNSB consumption is associated with subsequent (2 years later) overweight and/or obesity, and the effect of consumption on subsequent overweight/obesity differs by BMI polygenic risk score (BMI-PRS). Methods: The nationally representative Longitudinal-Study-of-Australian-Children had biennial data collection from birth (n = 5107) until age 14/15 years (n = 3127). At age 11/12 years, a comprehensive biomedical assessment, including PRS assessment, was undertaken (n = 1422). Parent- or self-reported beverage consumption (SSBs: soft drinks, energy drinks, and/or juice; NNSBs: diet drinks) was measured as any/none over previous 24 hours. BMI-PRS was derived using published results (high PRS ≥75th percentile). At ages 4/5-14/15 children were classified as having obesity, overweight/obesity, or not having overweight/obesity using BMI z-score (CDC cut points). Results: SSB consumption had limited association with subsequent overweight/obesity. NNSB consumption was associated with ∼8% more children with subsequent overweight/obesity at most ages. In older children with high BMI-PRS, associations between NNSB consumption and subsequent overweight/obesity strengthened with age [at age 14-15 for high BMI-PRS, difference in proportion with overweight/obesity among NNSB consumers vs. nonconsumers = 0.38 (95% confidence interval: 0.22 to 0.55, p ≤ 0.001)]. There was limited association between SSB consumption and BMI-PRS. Conclusion: NNSB consumption was associated with increased risk of overweight/obesity for children with greater genetic risk at older ages (12-15 years). Focused intervention among children with high genetic risk could target NNSB consumption; however, reverse causality (children with genetic risk and/or high BMI consume more NNSBs) cannot be excluded.

A novel anterior nasal swab to detect respiratory viruses: a prospective study of diagnostic accuracy.

Detection of respiratory viruses requires testing of the upper respiratory tract to obtain specimens for analysis. However, nasal and throat swabs can cause discomfort and procedural anxiety in children. Respiratory sampling methods which are accurate and less invasive are needed. We aim to determine the positive and negative percentage agreement of a novel anterior nasal swab (ANS) compared with the combined throat and anterior nasal swab (CTN), the reference standard, for detection of respiratory viruses. Children 5 - 18 years of age presenting to a tertiary paediatric hospital with respiratory symptoms were tested with both swabs in randomised order. Respiratory samples were tested on a multiplex RT-PCR panel. Viral detections, RT-PCR cycle-threshold values and child/parent/clinician experience of the swab were recorded. There were 157 viral detections from 249 participant CTN swabs. In comparison with the CTN, the overall positive and negative percentage agreement of ANS for detection of respiratory viruses was 96.2% (95% CI, 91.8-98.3%) and 99.8% (95% CI, 99.6-99.9%), respectively. The ANS was "extremely comfortable", or only a "little uncomfortable" for 90% of children compared with 48% for CTN. 202 children (84%) rated the ANS as the preferred swab, and 208 (87%) indicated they would prefer ANS for future testing. The ANS required additional laboratory handling processes compared to the CTN. The ANS has high positive percentage agreement and is comparable to the current standard of care. The high acceptability from the less invasive ANS provides a more comfortable method for respiratory virus testing in children.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT05043623.

One versus two doses of ivermectin-based mass drug administration for the control of scabies: A cluster randomised non-inferiority trial.

BACKGROUND: Mass drug administration (MDA) based on two doses of ivermectin, one week apart, substantially reduces prevalence of both scabies and impetigo. The Regimens of Ivermectin for Scabies Elimination (RISE) trial assessed whether one-dose ivermectin-based MDA would be as effective. METHODS: RISE was a cluster-randomised trial in Solomon Islands. We assigned 20 villages in a 1:1 ratio to one- or two-dose ivermectin-based MDA. We planned to test whether the impact of one dose on scabies prevalence at 12 and 24 months was non-inferior to two, at a 5% non-inferiority margin. RESULTS: We deferred endpoint assessment to 21 months due to COVID-19. We enrolled 5239 participants in 20 villages at baseline and 3369 at 21 months from an estimated population of 5500. At baseline scabies prevalence was similar in the two arms (one-dose 17·2%; two-dose 13·2%). At 21 months, there was no reduction in scabies prevalence (one-dose 18·7%; two-dose 13·4%), and the confidence interval around the difference included values substantially greater than 5%. There was however a reduction in prevalence among those who had been present at the baseline assessment (one-dose 15·9%; two-dose 10·8%). Additionally, we found a reduction in both scabies severity and impetigo prevalence in both arms, to a similar degree. CONCLUSIONS: There was no indication of an overall decline in scabies prevalence in either arm. The reduction in scabies prevalence in those present at baseline suggests that the unexpectedly high influx of people into the trial villages, likely related to the COVID-19 pandemic, may have compromised the effectiveness of the MDA. Despite the lack of effect there are important lessons to be learnt from this trial about conducting MDA for scabies in high prevalence settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Registered with Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12618001086257.

Stick with the nose Saliva rapid antigen testing is not a viable method for testing children under 5 years old.

AIM: Respiratory testing with rapid antigen tests (RATs) in children under 5 years of age may be uncomfortable and presents specific challenges to testing due to compliance and procedural distress. The aim of this study was to investigate sensitivity and feasibility of self-collected nasal and saliva RAT tests compared with a combined nose and throat (CTN) swab PCR in children under 5. METHODS: Children aged between 1 month and 5 years, with confirmed COVID-19 or who were a household contact within 7 days were included. A saliva RAT, nasal RAT and CTN swab were collected by the parent. SARS-CoV-2 cycle threshold (Ct) values for CTN tested by PCR were compared with saliva and nasal RAT results. Parent preference for method of sample was recorded. RESULTS: Forty-one children were recruited with median age of 1.5 (interquartile range 0.7-4.0) years. Only 22/41 (54%) of parents were able to successfully collect a saliva RAT from their child. Sensitivity of the nasal RAT and saliva RAT was 0.889 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.739-0.969) and 0.158 (95% CI 0.034-0.396), respectively. Upper limit of nasal RAT detection by CTN Ct value was higher than saliva (36.05 vs. 27.29). While saliva RAT was rated most comfortable, nasal RAT was rated the preferred specimen by parents for future testing, due to saliva collection difficulties and time taken. CONCLUSIONS: Rapid antigen testing with nasal RAT is a more feasible and sensitive method for SARS-CoV-2 detection in young children compared with saliva RAT.

Epidemiology of pneumonia in hospitalized adults ≥18 years old in four districts of Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, 2015-2019.

Background: Community-acquired pneumonia is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among children and adults worldwide. Adult pneumonia surveillance remains limited in many low- and middle-income settings, resulting in the disease burden being largely unknown. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted by reviewing medical charts for respiratory admissions at four district hospitals in Ulaanbaatar during January 2015-February 2019. Characteristics of community-acquired pneumonia cases were summarized by disease severity and age. To explore factors associated with severe pneumonia, we ran univariable and age-adjusted logistic regression models. Incidence rates were calculated using population denominators. Results: In total, 4290 respiratory admissions met the case definition for clinical pneumonia, including 430 admissions of severe pneumonia. The highest proportion of severe pneumonia admissions occurred in adults >65 years (37.4%). After adjusting for age, there were increased odds of severe pneumonia in males (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.63; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.33-2.00) and those with ≥1 underlying medical condition (aOR: 1.46; 95% CI: 1.14-1.87). The incidence of hospitalized pneumonia in adults ≥18 years increased from 13.49 (95% CI: 12.58-14.44) in 2015 to 17.65 (95% CI: 16.63-18.71) in 2018 per 10,000 population. The incidence of severe pneumonia was highest in adults >65 years, ranging from 9.29 (95% CI: 6.17-13.43) in 2015 to 12.69 (95% CI: 9.22-17.04) in 2018 per 10,000 population. Interpretations: Vaccination and other strategies to reduce the risk of pneumonia, particularly among older adults and those with underlying medical conditions, should be prioritized. Funding: Pfizer clinical research collaboration agreement (contract number: WI236621).

Study protocol and statistical analysis plan for the Early Peritoneal Dialysis in Infants after Cardiac Surgery (EPICS) trial.

Background: Peritoneal dialysis (PD) is a commonly used therapy after infant cardiac surgery. It is unclear whether early PD commenced soon after admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) after cardiac surgery results in better outcomes. Objective: To describe the study protocol and statistical analysis plan for the Early Peritoneal Dialysis in Infants after Cardiac Surgery (EPICS) trial. Design, setting, participants and intervention: The EPICS trial is an open, randomised, two-group, single-centre clinical study of infants ≤ 180 days of age who had cardiac surgery (in Risk-Adjusted Classification for Congenital Heart Surgery version 1 categories 3-6) with cardiopulmonary bypass. Participants will be randomly assigned 1:1 to early PD (treatment group) or no early PD (control group). Those assigned to the treatment group will begin receiving PD soon after ICU admission and continue receiving it for 24 hours. Those in the control group will not receive PD during the first 24 hours. Main outcome measures: The primary outcome is a composite measure consisting of one or more of death, cardiac arrest, emergency chest reopening, and requirement for extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) within 90 days. The main secondary outcomes are duration of mechanical ventilation, ICU length of stay, hospital length of stay, vasoactive-inotropic score at 24 hours, and cumulative per cent fluid balance by end of Day 2. At Day 90, events such as mortality, requirement for ECMO, cardiac arrest, chest reopening, volume of packed red blood cell transfusion, postoperative infection, readmission to ICU, renal injury and brain injury will be assessed. Conclusions: The EPICS trial aims to evaluate the role of early PD after infant cardiac surgery in lowering the rate of a composite major outcome. In addition, it will test the effect of early PD on duration of mechanical ventilation, and on ICU and hospital length of stay. Trial registration: ACTRN12617001614381.

Handling Missing Data and Drop Out in Hospice/Palliative Care Trials Through the Estimand Framework.

CONTEXT: Missing data are common in hospice/palliative care randomized trials due to high drop-out because of the demographic of interest. It can introduce bias in the estimate of the treatment effect and its precision. OBJECTIVES: The International Council for Harmonization of Technical Requirements for Pharmaceuticals for Human Use (ICH) released updated guidance on statistical principles for clinical trials introducing the estimand framework to align trial objectives, trial conduct, statistical analysis and interpretation of results. Our objective is to present how the estimand framework can be used to guide the handling of missing data in palliative care trials. METHODS: We outline the estimand framework by highlighting the five elements of an estimand: treatment, population, variable, summary measure and intercurrent event handling. We list common intercurrent events in palliative care trials and present the five strategies for handling intercurrent events outlined in the ICH guidance. RESULTS: We describe common intercurrent events in palliative care trials and discuss and justify what analytic strategies could be followed with each. We provide an example using a palliative care trial comparing two opioids for pain relieve in participants with cancer pain. CONCLUSION: When planning a palliative care trial, the estimand should be explicitly stated, including how intercurrent events will be handled in the analysis. This should be informed by the scientific objectives of the trial. The estimand guides the handling of missing data during the conduct and analysis of the trial. Defining an estimand is not a statistical activity, but a multi-disciplinary process involving all stakeholders.

Community control strategies for scabies: A cluster randomised noninferiority trial.

BACKGROUND: Scabies is a neglected tropical disease hyperendemic to many low- and middle-income countries. Scabies can be successfully controlled using mass drug administration (MDA) using 2 doses of ivermectin-based treatment. If effective, a strategy of 1-dose ivermectin-based MDA would have substantial advantages for implementing MDA for scabies at large scale. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We did a cluster randomised, noninferiority, open-label, 3-group unblinded study comparing the effectiveness of control strategies on community prevalence of scabies at 12 months. All residents from 35 villages on 2 Fijian islands were eligible to participate. Villages were randomised 1:1:1 to 2-dose ivermectin-based MDA (IVM-2), 1-dose ivermectin-based MDA (IVM-1), or screen and treat with topical permethrin 5% for individuals with scabies and their household contacts (SAT). All groups also received diethylcarbamazine and albendazole for lymphatic filariasis control. For IVM-2 and IVM-1, oral ivermectin was dosed at 200 µg/kg and when contraindicated substituted with permethrin. We designated a noninferiority margin of 5%. We enrolled 3,812 participants at baseline (July to November 2017) from the 35 villages with median village size of 108 (range 18 to 298). Age and sex of participants were representative of the population with 51.6% male and median age of 25 years (interquartile range 10 to 47). We enrolled 3,898 at 12 months (July to November 2018). At baseline, scabies prevalence was similar in all groups: IVM-2: 11.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 8.5 to 16.0); IVM-1: 15.2% (95% CI 9.4 to 23.8); SAT: 13.6% (95% CI 7.9 to 22.4). At 12 months, scabies decreased substantially in all groups: IVM-2: 1.3% (95% CI 0.6 to 2.5); IVM-1: 2.7% (95% CI 1.1 to 6.5); SAT: 1.1% (95% CI 0.6 to 2.0). The risk difference in scabies prevalence at 12 months between the IVM-1 and IVM-2 groups was 1.2% (95% CI -0.2 to 2.7, p = 0.10). Limitations of the study included the method of scabies diagnosis by nonexperts, a lower baseline prevalence than anticipated, and the addition of diethylcarbamazine and albendazole to scabies treatment. CONCLUSIONS: All 3 strategies substantially reduced prevalence. One-dose was noninferior to 2-dose ivermectin-based MDA, as was a screen and treat approach, for community control of scabies. Further trials comparing these approaches in varied settings are warranted to inform global scabies control strategies. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinitrials.gov NCT03177993 and ANZCTR N12617000738325.

Backyard benefits? A cross-sectional study of yard size and greenness and children's physical activity and outdoor play.

BACKGROUND: The home environment is the most important location in young children's lives, yet few studies have examined the relationship between the outdoor home environment and child physical activity levels, and even fewer have used objectively measured exposures and outcomes. This study examined relationships between objectively assessed home yard size and greenness, and child physical activity and outdoor play. METHODS: Data were drawn from the HealthNuts study, a longitudinal study of 5276 children in Melbourne, Australia. We used cross-sectional data from a sample at Wave 3 (2013-2016) when participants were aged 6 years (n = 1648). A sub-sample of 391 children had valid accelerometer data collected from Tri-axial GENEActive accelerometers worn on their non-dominant wrist for 8 consecutive days. Yard area and greenness were calculated using geographic information systems. Objective outcome measures were minutes/day in sedentary, light, and moderate-vigorous physical activity (weekday and weekend separately). Parent-reported outcome measures were minutes/day playing outdoors (weekend and weekday combined). Multi-level regression models (adjusted for child's sex, mother's age at the birth of child, neighbourhood socioeconomic index, maternal education, and maternal ethnicity) estimated effects of yard size and greenness on physical activity. RESULTS: Data were available on outdoor play for 1648 children and usable accelerometer data for 391. Associations between yard size/greenness and components of physical activity were minimal. For example, during weekdays, yard size was not associated with daily minutes in sedentary behaviour (ß: 2.4, 95% CI: - 6.2, 11.0), light physical activity (ß: 1.4, 95% CI: - 5.7, 8.5) or MVPA (ß: -2.4, 95% CI: - 6.5, 1.7), with similar patterns at weekends. There was no relationship between median annual yard greenness and physical activity or play. CONCLUSION: In our study of young children residing in higher socio-economic areas of Melbourne yard characteristics did not appear to have a major impact on children's physical activity. Larger studies with greater variation in yard characteristics and identification of activity location are needed to better understand the importance of home outdoor spaces and guide sustainable city planning.

Individual Efficacy and Community Impact of Ivermectin, Diethylcarbamazine, and Albendazole Mass Drug Administration for Lymphatic Filariasis Control in Fiji: A Cluster Randomized Trial.

BACKGROUND: Bancroftian filariasis remains endemic in Fiji despite >10 years of mass drug administration (MDA) using diethylcarbamazine and albendazole (DA). The addition of ivermectin to this combination (IDA) has improved efficacy of microfilarial clearance at 12 months in individually randomized trials in nocturnal transmission settings, but impact in a setting of diurnally subperiodic filarial transmission has not been evaluated. METHODS: This cluster randomized study compared the individual efficacy and community impact of IDA vs DA as MDA for lymphatic filariasis in 35 villages on 2 islands of Fiji. Participants were tested at enrollment for circulating filarial antigen and, if positive, for microfilariae. Weight-dosed treatment was offered according to village randomization. Communities were visited at 12 months and retested for lymphatic filariasis. Infected individuals from Rotuma were retested at 24 months. RESULTS: A total of 3816 participants were enrolled and 3616 were treated. At 12 months, microfilariae clearance was achieved in 72 of 111 participants detected with infection at baseline, with no difference in efficacy between treatment groups: DA, 69.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 57.2%-79.1%) vs IDA, 62.5% (95% CI, 43.6%-78.2%); risk difference, 11.3 % (95% CI, -10% to 32.7%); P = .30. There was no difference between treatment groups in community prevalence of microfilariae at 12 months or individual clearance at 24 months. CONCLUSIONS: We found no difference between IDA and DA in individual clearance or community prevalence of lymphatic filariasis at 12 months, and no improved efficacy following a second annual round of IDA. Possible explanations for the apparent lack of benefit of IDA compared to DA include drug and parasite factors affecting clearance, and higher than expected reinfection rates. Clinical Trials Registration: NCT03177993 and Australian New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry: N12617000738325.

Defining the need for public health control of scabies in Solomon Islands.

Pacific Island countries have a high burden of scabies and impetigo. Understanding of the epidemiology of these diseases is needed to target public health interventions such as mass drug administration (MDA). The aim of this study is to determine the prevalence of scabies and impetigo in Solomon Islands as well as the relationship between them and their distribution. We conducted a prevalence study in 20 villages in Western Province in Solomon Islands. All residents of the village were eligible to participate. Nurses conducted clinical assessments including history features and skin examination. Diagnosis of scabies was made using the 2020 International Alliance for the Control of Scabies diagnostic criteria. Assessments were completed on 5239 participants across 20 villages. Overall scabies prevalence was 15.0% (95%CI 11.8-19.1). There was considerable variation by village with a range of 3.3% to 42.6%. There was a higher prevalence of scabies in males (16.7%) than females (13.5%, adjusted relative risk 1.2, 95%CI 1.1-1.4). Children aged under two years had the highest prevalence (27%). Overall impetigo prevalence was 5.6% (95%CI 4.2-7.3), ranging from 1.4% to 19% by village. The population attributable risk of impetigo associated with scabies was 16.1% (95% CI 9.8-22.4). The prevalence of scabies in our study is comparable to previous studies in Solomon Islands, highlighting a persistent high burden of disease in the country, and the need for public health strategies for disease control.

Rehabilitation for ataxia study: protocol for a randomised controlled trial of an outpatient and supported home-based physiotherapy programme for people with hereditary cerebellar ataxia.

INTRODUCTION: Emerging evidence indicates that rehabilitation can improve ataxia, mobility and independence in everyday activities in individuals with hereditary cerebellar ataxia. However, with the rarity of the genetic ataxias and known recruitment challenges in rehabilitation trials, most studies have been underpowered, non-randomised or non-controlled. This study will be the first, appropriately powered randomised controlled trial to examine the efficacy of an outpatient and home-based rehabilitation programme on improving motor function for individuals with hereditary cerebellar ataxia. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This randomised, single-blind, parallel group trial will compare a 30-week rehabilitation programme to standard care in individuals with hereditary cerebellar ataxia. Eighty individuals with a hereditary cerebellar ataxia, aged 15 years and above, will be recruited. The rehabilitation programme will include 6 weeks of outpatient land and aquatic physiotherapy followed immediately by a 24- week home exercise programme supported with fortnightly physiotherapy sessions. Participants in the standard care group will be asked to continue their usual physical activity. The primary outcome will be the motor domain of the Functional Independence Measure. Secondary outcomes will measure the motor impairment related to ataxia, balance, quality of life and cost-effectiveness. Outcomes will be administered at baseline, 7 weeks, 18 weeks and 30 weeks by a physiotherapist blinded to group allocation. A repeated measures mixed-effects linear regression model will be used to analyse the effect of the treatment group for each of the dependent continuous variables. The primary efficacy analysis will follow the intention-to-treat principle. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study has been approved by the Monash Health Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC/18/MonH/418) and the Human Research Ethics Committee of the Northern Territory Department of Health and Menzies School of Health Research (2019/3503). Results will be published in peer-reviewed journals, presented at national and/or international conferences and disseminated to Australian ataxia support groups. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ACTRN12618000908235.

Protocol for a cluster-randomised non-inferiority trial of one versus two doses of ivermectin for the control of scabies using a mass drug administration strategy (the RISE study).

INTRODUCTION: Scabies is a significant contributor to global morbidity, affecting approximately 200 million people at any time. Scabies is endemic in many resource-limited tropical settings. Bacterial skin infection (impetigo) frequently complicates scabies infestation in these settings. Community-wide ivermectin-based mass drug administration (MDA) is an effective control strategy for scabies in island settings, with a single round of MDA reducing population prevalence by around 90%. However, current two-dose regimens present a number of barriers to programmatic MDA implementation. We designed the Regimens of Ivermectin for Scabies Elimination (RISE) trial to investigate whether one-dose MDA may be as effective as two-dose MDA in controlling scabies in high-prevalence settings. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: RISE is a cluster-randomised non-inferiority trial. The study will be conducted in 20 isolated villages in Western Province of Solomon Islands where population prevalence of scabies is approximately 20%. Villages will be randomly allocated to receive either one dose or two doses of ivermectin-based MDA in a 1:1 ratio. The primary objective of the study is to determine if ivermectin-based MDA with one dose is as effective as MDA with two doses in reducing the prevalence of scabies after 12 months. Secondary objectives include the effect of ivermectin-based MDA on impetigo prevalence after 12 and 24 months, the prevalence of scabies at 24 months after the intervention, the impact on presentation to health facilities with scabies and impetigo, and the safety of one-dose and two-dose MDA. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This trial has been approved by the ethics review committees of the Solomon Islands and the Royal Children's Hospital, Australia. Results will be disseminated in peer-reviewed publications and in meetings with the Solomon Islands Ministry of Health and Medical Services and participating communities. TRIAL REGISTRATION DETAILS: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry: ACTRN12618001086257. Date registered: 28 June 2018.

The safety of combined triple drug therapy with ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine and albendazole in the neglected tropical diseases co-endemic setting of Fiji: A cluster randomised trial.

Lymphatic filariasis has remained endemic in Fiji despite repeated mass drug administration using the well-established and safe combination of diethylcarbamazine and albendazole (DA) since 2002. In certain settings the addition of ivermectin to this combination (IDA) remains a safe strategy and is more efficacious. However, the safety has yet to be described in scabies and soil-transmitted helminth endemic settings like Fiji. Villages of Rotuma and Gau islands were randomised to either DA or IDA. Residents received weight-based treatment unblinded with standard exclusions. Participants were actively found and asked by a nurse about their health daily for the first two days and then asked to seek review for the next five days if unwell. Anyone with severe symptoms were reviewed by a doctor and any serious adverse event was reported to the Medical Monitor and Data Safety Monitoring Board. Of 3612 enrolled and eligible participants, 1216 were randomised to DA and 2396 to IDA. Age and sex in both groups were representative of the population. Over 99% (3598) of participants completed 7 days follow-up. Adverse events were reported by 600 participants (16.7%), distributed equally between treatment groups, with most graded as mild (93.2%). There were three serious adverse events, all judged not attributable to treatment by an independent medical monitor. Fatigue was the most common symptom reported by 8.5%, with headache, dizziness, nausea and arthralgia being the next four most common symptoms. Adverse events were more likely in participants with microfilaremia (43.2% versus 15.7%), but adverse event frequency was not related to the presence of scabies or soil-transmitted helminth infection. IDA has comparable safety to DA with the same frequency of adverse events experienced following community mass drug administration. The presence of co-endemic infections did not increase adverse events. IDA can be used in community programs where preventative chemotherapy is needed for control of lymphatic filariasis and other neglected tropical diseases.

Multiple imputation in the presence of an incomplete binary variable created from an underlying continuous variable.

Multiple imputation (MI) is used to handle missing at random (MAR) data. Despite warnings from statisticians, continuous variables are often recoded into binary variables. With MI it is important that the imputation and analysis models are compatible; variables should be imputed in the same form they appear in the analysis model. With an encoded binary variable more accurate imputations may be obtained by imputing the underlying continuous variable. We conducted a simulation study to explore how best to impute a binary variable that was created from an underlying continuous variable. We generated a completely observed continuous outcome associated with an incomplete binary covariate that is a categorized version of an underlying continuous covariate, and an auxiliary variable associated with the underlying continuous covariate. We simulated data with several sample sizes, and set 25% and 50% of data in the covariate to MAR dependent on the outcome and the auxiliary variable. We compared the performance of five different imputation methods: (a) Imputation of the binary variable using logistic regression; (b) imputation of the continuous variable using linear regression, then categorizing into the binary variable; (c, d) imputation of both the continuous and binary variables using fully conditional specification (FCS) and multivariate normal imputation; (e) substantive-model compatible (SMC) FCS. Bias and standard errors were large when the continuous variable only was imputed. The other methods performed adequately. Imputation of both the binary and continuous variables using FCS often encountered mathematical difficulties. We recommend the SMC-FCS method as it performed best in our simulation studies.

Vascular function and stiffness: population epidemiology and concordance in Australian children aged 11-12 years and their parents.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the epidemiology and parent-child concordance of vascular function in a population-based sample of Australian parent-child dyads at child age 11-12 years. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study (Child Health CheckPoint), nested within a prospective cohort study, the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC). SETTING: Assessment centres in seven major Australian cities and eight regional towns or home visits, February 2015-March 2016. PARTICIPANTS: Of all participating CheckPoint families (n=1874), 1840 children (49% girls) and 1802 parents (88% mothers) provided vascular function data. Survey weights and methods were applied to account for LSAC's complex sample design and clustering within postcodes and strata. OUTCOME MEASURES: The SphygmoCor XCEL assessed vascular function, generating estimates of brachial and central systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure, central pulse pressure, augmentation index and carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity. Pearson's correlation coefficients and multivariable linear regression models estimated parent-child concordance. RESULTS: Hypertension was present in 3.9% of children and 9.0% of parents. Mean child and parent values for augmentation index were 4.5% (SD 11.6) and 21.3% (SD 12.3), respectively, and those for carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity were 4.48 m/s (SD 0.59) and 6.85 m/s (SD 1.14), respectively. Parent-child correlation for brachial systolic blood pressure was 0.20 (95% CI 0.15 to 0.24), brachial diastolic blood pressure 0.21 (95% CI 0.16 to 0.26), central systolic blood pressure 0.21 (95% CI 0.16 to 0.25), central diastolic blood pressure 0.21 (95% CI0.17 to 0.26), central pulse pressure 0.19 (95% CI 0.14 to 0.24), augmentation index 0.28 (95% CI 0.23 to 0.32) and pulse wave velocity 0.22 (95% CI 0.18 to 0.27). CONCLUSIONS: We report Australian values for traditional and more novel vascular function markers, providing a reference for future population studies. Cross-generational concordance in multiple vascular function markers is already established by age 11-12 years, with mechanisms of heritability remaining to be explored.

Lung function: population epidemiology and concordance in Australian children aged 11-12 years and their parents.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the epidemiology of lung function in Australian children aged 11-12 years and their parents, and explore the degree of intergenerational concordance. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study (the Child Health CheckPoint) nested in the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC). SETTING: Assessment centres in seven Australian cities and eight regional towns, February 2015 to March 2016. Families unable to attend a clinic appointment were offered a home visit during the same period. PARTICIPANTS: 1874 families (53% of all eligible) participated in the study. Lung function data were available for 1759 children aged 11-12 years and 1774 parents (1668 biological pairs). OUTCOME MEASURES: Participants completed spirometry with measures including forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC) and mid expiratory flow (MEF), converted to z-scores using Global Lung Initiative equations. Parent-child concordance was assessed using Pearson's correlation coefficients and multivariable linear regression models. Survey weights and methods accounted for LSAC's complex sampling, stratification and clustering within postcodes. RESULTS: All lung function measures followed approximately normal distributions. Mean (SD) for FEV1, FVC and MEF z-scores in children were 0.33 (1.07), 0.83 (1.14) and -0.48 (1.09), respectively. Mean (SD) in parents were 0.28 (1.10), 0.85 (1.15) and -0.45 (1.10), respectively. Parent FEV1, FVC and MEF were associated with child lung function with significant positive correlation coefficients (0.22, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.26; 0.24, 95% CI 0.20 to 0.29; and 0.24, 95% CI 0.20 to 0.29, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Mean lung volumes were larger but with smaller airway size than international standards for both parents and children in this population sample. Modest associations between parent and child lung function highlight the potential for better identification of 'at risk' populations. Therefore, these findings may aid the development of health policy that aims to prevent the onset or limit the progression of lung disease.