The potential cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination among girls in Mongolia.

Introduction: Cervical cancer is a leading cause of cancer among women in Mongolia with an age-standardized incidence rate of 23.5 per 100,000. HPV vaccination has not been introduced nationally and Gavi co-financing support is not available in Mongolia. Extended Gavi pricing for HPV vaccine may be available from vaccine manufacturers for a number of years. To inform introduction decision-making, we evaluated the potential cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination among girls and young women in Mongolia. Methods: We used UNIVAC (version 1.4), a static decision model, to evaluate the health and economic outcomes of single-cohort vaccination among females from the government perspective compared to no vaccination. We modeled vaccine introduction over 10 birth cohorts starting in 2022 comparing quadrivalent or bivalent vaccine selection and vaccine pricing variations. We used locally-specific data for cancer incidence, mortality, treatment and costs. Model outcomes included cancer cases, hospitalizations, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALY), and costs presented in 2018 USD. Incremental costs and health outcomes were discounted at 3% and aggregated into an Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER). Results: The base-case scenario of HPV vaccination among 9 year-old girls was projected to avert 5,692 cervical cancer cases, 3,240 deaths, and 11,886 DALYs and incur $2.4-3.1M more costs compared to no vaccination. At prices of ($4.50-$4.60/dose), we estimated an ICER of $166-$265/DALY averted among 9-year-olds. When price per dose was increased to reported mean vaccine purchase price for non-Gavi LMICs ($14.17/dose), the ICER ranged from $556-820/DALY averted. Conclusion: HPV vaccination among girls is highly likely to be a cost-effective investment in Mongolia compared to no vaccination with projected ICERs less than 20% of the 2018 GDP per capita of $3,735.

Projected impact, cost-effectiveness, and budget implications of rotavirus vaccination in Mongolia.

INTRODUCTION: Rotavirus disease in Mongolia is estimated to cause more than 50 deaths yearly and many more cases and hospitalizations. Mongolia must self-finance new vaccines and does not automatically access Gavi prices for vaccines. Given the country's limited resources for health, it is critical to assess potential new vaccine programs. This evaluation estimates the impact, cost-effectiveness, and budget implications associated with a nationwide rotavirus vaccine introduction targeting infants as part of the national immunization program in Mongolia, in order to inform decision-making around introduction. METHODS: The analysis examines the use of the two-dose vaccine ROTARIX®, and three-dose vaccines ROTAVAC® and RotaTeq® compared to no vaccination from the government and the societal perspective. We use a modelling approach informed by local data and published literature to analyze the impact and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination over a ten-year time period starting in 2019, using a 3% discount rate. Our main outcome measure is the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) expressed as US dollar per DALY averted. We assessed uncertainty around a series of parameters through univariate sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Rotavirus vaccination in Mongolia could avert more than 95,000 rotavirus cases and 271 deaths, over 10 years. Averted visits and hospitalizations represent US$2.4 million in health care costs saved by the government. The vaccination program cost ranges from $6 to $11 million depending on vaccine choice. From the governmental perspective, ICER ranged from $412 to $1050 and from $77 to $715 when considering the societal perspective. Sensitivity analysis highlights vaccine price as the main driver of uncertainty. CONCLUSION: Introduction of rotavirus vaccination is likely to be highly cost-effective in Mongolia, with ICERs estimated at only a fraction of Mongolia's per capita GDP. From an economic standpoint, ROTAVAC® is the least costly and most cost-effective product choice.

Lessons learned from the Advancing Maternal Immunization collaboration: identifying evidence gaps for informed respiratory syncytial virus maternal immunization decision-making.

In an increasingly crowded vaccine landscape, global and country decision-makers will require evidence-based and disease-specific information when prioritizing new public health interventions. The Advancing Maternal Immunization collaboration (AMI) was designed to develop a cross-program strategy to advance respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) maternal immunization (MI) availability and accessibility in low- and middle-income countries by completing a comprehensive RSV MI gap analysis and developing an actionable roadmap report. By engaging and coordinating key stakeholders using a web-based communication platform and developing standardized tools, AMI was able to facilitate interaction and consensus between members. This paper describes the methodology used to create and manage AMI's work. We share lessons learned from our approach to inform other groups conducting similar work requiring cross-sectoral engagement. This approach could be adapted to efficiently conduct gap analyses for other health interventions that require input and coordination across a variety of topic areas, disciplines, geographies, and stakeholders.

Cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Ghana: Examining impacts from 2012 to 2031.

BACKGROUND: Diarrhea causes about 10% of all deaths in children under five years globally, with rotavirus causing about 40% of all diarrhea deaths. Ghana introduced rotavirus vaccination as part of routine immunization in 2012 and it has been shown to be effective in reducing disease burden in children under five years. Ghana's transition from low to lower-middle income status in 2010 implies fewer resources from Gavi as well as other major global financing mechanisms. Ghana will soon bear the full cost of vaccines. The aim of this study was to estimate the health impact, costs and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Ghana from introduction and beyond the Gavi transition. METHODS: The TRIVAC model is used to estimate costs and effects of rotavirus vaccination from 2012 through 2031. Model inputs include demographics, disease burden, health system structure, health care utilization and costs as well as vaccine cost, coverage, and efficacy. Model inputs came from local data, the international literature and expert consultation. Costs were examined from the health system and societal perspectives. RESULTS: The results show that continued rotavirus vaccination could avert more than 2.2 million cases and 8900 deaths while saving US$6 to US$9 million in costs over a 20-year period. The net cost of vaccination program is approximately US$60 million over the same period. The societal cost per DALY averted is US$238 to US$332 with cost per case averted ranging from US$27 to US$38. The cost per death averted is approximately US$7000. CONCLUSION: The analysis shows that continued rotavirus vaccination will be highly cost-effective, even for the period during which Ghana will assume responsibility for purchasing vaccines after transition from Gavi support.

Potential impact and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Afghanistan.

INTRODUCTION: Despite progress made in child survival in the past 20 years, 5.9 million children under five years died in 2015, with 9% of these deaths due to diarrhea. Rotavirus is responsible for more than a third of diarrhea deaths. In 2013, rotavirus was estimated to cause 215,000 deaths among children under five years, including 89,000 in Asia. As of April 2017, 92 countries worldwide have introduced rotavirus vaccination in their national immunization program. Afghanistan has applied for Gavi support to introduce rotavirus vaccination nationally. This study estimates the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of a national rotavirus immunization program in Afghanistan. METHODS: This study examined the use of Rotarix® (RV1) administered using a two-dose schedule at 6 and 10 weeks of age. We used the ProVac Initiative's UNIVAC model (version 1.2.09) to evaluate the impact and cost-effectiveness of a rotavirus vaccine program compared with no vaccine over ten birth cohorts from 2017 to 2026 with a 3% annual discount rate. All monetary units are adjusted to 2017 US$. RESULTS: Rotavirus vaccination in Afghanistan has the potential to avert more than one million cases; 660,000 outpatient visits; approximately 50,000 hospital admissions; 650,000 DALYs; and 12,000 deaths, over 10 years. Not accounting for any Gavi subsidy, rotavirus vaccination can avert DALYs at US$82/DALY from the government perspective and US$80/DALY from the societal perspective. With Gavi support, DALYs can be averted at US$29/DALY and US$31/DALY from the societal and government perspective, respectively. The average yearly cost of a rotavirus vaccination program would represent 2.8% of the total immunization budget expected in 2017 and 0.1% of total health expenditure. CONCLUSION: The introduction of rotavirus vaccination would be highly cost-effective in Afghanistan, and even more so with a Gavi subsidy.

Impact and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Bangladesh.

INTRODUCTION: Diarrheal disease is a leading cause of child mortality globally, and rotavirus is responsible for more than a third of those deaths. Despite substantial decreases, the number of rotavirus deaths in children under five was 215,000 per year in 2013. Of these deaths, approximately 41% occurred in Asia and 3% of those in Bangladesh. While Bangladesh has yet to introduce rotavirus vaccination, the country applied for Gavi support and plans to introduce it in 2018. This analysis evaluates the impact and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Bangladesh and provides estimates of the costs of the vaccination program to help inform decision-makers and international partners. METHODS: This analysis used Pan American Health Organization's TRIVAC model (version 2.0) to examine nationwide introduction of two-dose rotavirus vaccination in 2017, compared to no vaccination. Three mortality scenarios (low, high, and midpoint) were assessed. Benefits and costs were examined from the societal perspective over ten successive birth cohorts with a 3% discount rate. Model inputs were locally acquired and complemented by internationally validated estimates. RESULTS: Over ten years, rotavirus vaccination would prevent 4000 deaths, nearly 500,000 hospitalizations and 3 million outpatient visits in the base scenario. With a Gavi subsidy, cost/disability adjusted life year (DALY) ratios ranged from $58/DALY to $142/DALY averted. Without a Gavi subsidy and a vaccine price of $2.19 per dose, cost/DALY ratios ranged from $615/DALY to $1514/DALY averted. CONCLUSION: The discounted cost per DALY averted was less than the GDP per capita for nearly all scenarios considered, indicating that a routine rotavirus vaccination program is highly likely to be cost-effective. Even in a low mortality setting with no Gavi subsidy, rotavirus vaccination would be cost-effective. These estimates exclude the herd immunity benefits of vaccination, so represent a conservative estimate of the cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Bangladesh.