Impact of climate change on non-communicable diseases caused by altered UV radiation.

Background: UV radiation can cause serious skin and eye diseases, especially cancers. UV-related skin cancer incidences have been increasing for decades. The determining factor for this development is the individual UV exposure. Climate change-induced changes in atmospheric factors can influence individual UV exposure. Methods: On the basis of a topic-specific literature research, a review paper was prepared and supplemented by as yet unpublished results of the authors' own studies. The need for scientific research and development is formulated as well as primary prevention recommendations. Results: Climate change alters the factors influencing UV irradiance and annual UV dose in Germany. First evaluations of satellite data for Germany show an increase in mean peak UV irradiance and annual UV dose for the last decade compared to the last three decades. Conclusions: The climate change-related influences on individual UV exposure and the associated individual disease incidence cannot yet be reliably predicted due to considerable uncertainties. However, the current UV-related burden of disease already requires primary preventive measures to prevent UV-related diseases.

Record-Breaking Increases in Arctic Solar Ultraviolet Radiation Caused by Exceptionally Large Ozone Depletion in 2020.

Measurements of solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) performed between January and June 2020 at 10 Arctic and subarctic locations are compared with historical observations. Differences between 2020 and prior years are also assessed with total ozone column and UVR data from satellites. Erythemal (sunburning) UVR is quantified with the UV Index (UVI) derived from these measurements. UVI data show unprecedently large anomalies, occurring mostly between early March and mid-April 2020. For several days, UVIs observed in 2020 exceeded measurements of previous years by up to 140%. Historical means were surpassed by more than six standard deviations at several locations in the Arctic. In northern Canada, the average UVI for March was about 75% larger than usual. UVIs in April 2020 were elevated on average by about 25% at all sites. However, absolute anomalies remained below 3.0 UVI units because the enhancements occurred during times when the solar elevation was still low.

Lagrangian simulation of ice particles and resulting dehydration in the polar winter stratosphere.

Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) and cold stratospheric aerosols drive heterogeneous chemistry and play a major role in polar ozone depletion. The Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) simulates the nucleation, growth, sedimentation, and evaporation of PSC particles along individual trajectories. Particles consisting of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT), which contain a substantial fraction of the stratospheric nitric acid (HNO3), were the focus of previous modeling work and are known for their potential to denitrify the polar stratosphere. Here, we carried this idea forward and introduced the formation of ice PSCs and related dehydration into the sedimentation module of CLaMS. Both processes change the simulated chemical composition of the lower stratosphere. Due to the Lagrangian transport scheme, NAT and ice particles move freely in three-dimensional space. Heterogeneous NAT and ice nucleation on foreign nuclei as well as homogeneous ice nucleation and NAT nucleation on preexisting ice particles are now implemented into CLaMS and cover major PSC formation pathways. We show results from the Arctic winter 2009/2010 and from the Antarctic winter 2011 to demonstrate the performance of the model over two entire PSC seasons. For both hemispheres, we present CLaMS results in comparison to measurements from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP), the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS), and the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Observations and simulations are presented on season-long and vortex-wide scales as well as for single PSC events. The simulations reproduce well both the timing and the extent of PSC occurrence inside the entire vortex. Divided into specific PSC classes, CLaMS results show predominantly good agreement with CALIOP and MIPAS observations, even for specific days and single satellite orbits. CLaMS and CALIOP agree that NAT mixtures are the first type of PSC to be present in both winters. NAT PSC areal coverages over the entire season agree satisfactorily. However, cloud-free areas, next to or surrounded by PSCs in the CALIOP data, are often populated with NAT particles in the CLaMS simulations. Looking at the temporal and vortex-averaged evolution of HNO3, CLaMS shows an uptake of HNO3 from the gas into the particle phase which is too large and happens too early in the simulation of the Arctic winter. In turn, the permanent redistribution of HNO3 is smaller in the simulations than in the observations. The Antarctic model run shows too little denitrification at lower altitudes towards the end of the winter compared to the observations. The occurrence of synoptic-scale ice PSCs agrees satisfactorily between observations and simulations for both hemispheres and the simulated vertical redistribution of water vapor (H2O) is in very good agreement with MLS observations. In summary, a conclusive agreement between CLaMS simulations and a variety of independent measurements is presented.

Does cosmic-ray-induced heterogeneous chemistry influence stratospheric polar ozone loss?

Cosmic-ray (CR) -induced heterogeneous reactions of halogenated species have been suggested to play the dominant role in causing the Antarctic ozone hole. However, measurements of total ozone in Antarctica do not show a compact and significant correlation with CR activity. Further, a substantial CR-induced heterogeneous loss of chlorofluorocarbons is incompatible with multiyear satellite observations of N2O and CFC-12. Thus, CR-induced heterogeneous reactions cannot be considered as an alternative mechanism causing the Antarctic ozone hole.