A community challenge to predict clinical outcomes after immune checkpoint blockade in non-small cell lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: Predictive biomarkers of immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) efficacy are currently lacking for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Here, we describe the results from the Anti-PD-1 Response Prediction DREAM Challenge, a crowdsourced initiative that enabled the assessment of predictive models by using data from two randomized controlled clinical trials (RCTs) of ICIs in first-line metastatic NSCLC. METHODS: Participants developed and trained models using public resources. These were evaluated with data from the CheckMate 026 trial (NCT02041533), according to the model-to-data paradigm to maintain patient confidentiality. The generalizability of the models with the best predictive performance was assessed using data from the CheckMate 227 trial (NCT02477826). Both trials were phase III RCTs with a chemotherapy control arm, which supported the differentiation between predictive and prognostic models. Isolated model containers were evaluated using a bespoke strategy that considered the challenges of handling transcriptome data from clinical trials. RESULTS: A total of 59 teams participated, with 417 models submitted. Multiple predictive models, as opposed to a prognostic model, were generated for predicting overall survival, progression-free survival, and progressive disease status with ICIs. Variables within the models submitted by participants included tumor mutational burden (TMB), programmed death ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression, and gene-expression-based signatures. The best-performing models showed improved predictive power over reference variables, including TMB or PD-L1. CONCLUSIONS: This DREAM Challenge is the first successful attempt to use protected phase III clinical data for a crowdsourced effort towards generating predictive models for ICI clinical outcomes and could serve as a blueprint for similar efforts in other tumor types and disease states, setting a benchmark for future studies aiming to identify biomarkers predictive of ICI efficacy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: CheckMate 026; NCT02041533, registered January 22, 2014. CheckMate 227; NCT02477826, registered June 23, 2015.

MetaTiME integrates single-cell gene expression to characterize the meta-components of the tumor immune microenvironment.

Recent advances in single-cell RNA sequencing have shown heterogeneous cell types and gene expression states in the non-cancerous cells in tumors. The integration of multiple scRNA-seq datasets across tumors can indicate common cell types and states in the tumor microenvironment (TME). We develop a data driven framework, MetaTiME, to overcome the limitations in resolution and consistency that result from manual labelling using known gene markers. Using millions of TME single cells, MetaTiME learns meta-components that encode independent components of gene expression observed across cancer types. The meta-components are biologically interpretable as cell types, cell states, and signaling activities. By projecting onto the MetaTiME space, we provide a tool to annotate cell states and signature continuums for TME scRNA-seq data. Leveraging epigenetics data, MetaTiME reveals critical transcriptional regulators for the cell states. Overall, MetaTiME learns data-driven meta-components that depict cellular states and gene regulators for tumor immunity and cancer immunotherapy.

Discovery of Targets for Immune-Metabolic Antitumor Drugs Identifies Estrogen-Related Receptor Alpha.

Drugs that kill tumors through multiple mechanisms have the potential for broad clinical benefits. Here, we first developed an in silico multiomics approach (BipotentR) to find cancer cell-specific regulators that simultaneously modulate tumor immunity and another oncogenic pathway and then used it to identify 38 candidate immune-metabolic regulators. We show the tumor activities of these regulators stratify patients with melanoma by their response to anti-PD-1 using machine learning and deep neural approaches, which improve the predictive power of current biomarkers. The topmost identified regulator, ESRRA, is activated in immunotherapy-resistant tumors. Its inhibition killed tumors by suppressing energy metabolism and activating two immune mechanisms: (i) cytokine induction, causing proinflammatory macrophage polarization, and (ii) antigen-presentation stimulation, recruiting CD8+ T cells into tumors. We also demonstrate a wide utility of BipotentR by applying it to angiogenesis and growth suppressor evasion pathways. BipotentR (http://bipotentr.dfci.harvard.edu/) provides a resource for evaluating patient response and discovering drug targets that act simultaneously through multiple mechanisms. SIGNIFICANCE: BipotentR presents resources for evaluating patient response and identifying targets for drugs that can kill tumors through multiple mechanisms concurrently. Inhibition of the topmost candidate target killed tumors by suppressing energy metabolism and effects on two immune mechanisms. This article is highlighted in the In This Issue feature, p. 517.

Machine learning on syngeneic mouse tumor profiles to model clinical immunotherapy response.

Most patients with cancer are refractory to immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) therapy, and proper patient stratification remains an open question. Primary patient data suffer from high heterogeneity, low accessibility, and lack of proper controls. In contrast, syngeneic mouse tumor models enable controlled experiments with ICB treatments. Using transcriptomic and experimental variables from >700 ICB-treated/control syngeneic mouse tumors, we developed a machine learning framework to model tumor immunity and identify factors influencing ICB response. Projected on human immunotherapy trial data, we found that the model can predict clinical ICB response. We further applied the model to predicting ICB-responsive/resistant cancer types in The Cancer Genome Atlas, which agreed well with existing clinical reports. Last, feature analysis implicated factors associated with ICB response. In summary, our computational framework based on mouse tumor data reliably stratified patients regarding ICB response, informed resistance mechanisms, and has the potential for wide applications in disease treatment studies.

Hippo Signaling Pathway Regulates Cancer Cell-Intrinsic MHC-II Expression.

MHC-II is known to be mainly expressed on the surface of antigen-presenting cells. Evidence suggests MHC-II is also expressed by cancer cells and may be associated with better immunotherapy responses. However, the role and regulation of MHC-II in cancer cells remain unclear. In this study, we leveraged data mining and experimental validation to elucidate the regulation of MHC-II in cancer cells and its role in modulating the response to immunotherapy. We collated an extensive collection of omics data to examine cancer cell-intrinsic MHC-II expression and its association with immunotherapy outcomes. We then tested the functional relevance of cancer cell-intrinsic MHC-II expression using a syngeneic transplantation model. Finally, we performed data mining to identify pathways potentially involved in the regulation of MHC-II expression, and experimentally validated candidate regulators. Analyses of preimmunotherapy clinical samples in the CheckMate 064 trial revealed that cancer cell-intrinsic MHC-II protein was positively correlated with more favorable immunotherapy outcomes. Comprehensive meta-analyses of multiomics data from an exhaustive collection of data revealed that MHC-II is heterogeneously expressed in various solid tumors, and its expression is particularly high in melanoma. Using a syngeneic transplantation model, we further established that melanoma cells with high MHC-II responded better to anti-PD-1 treatment. Data mining followed by experimental validation revealed the Hippo signaling pathway as a potential regulator of melanoma MHC-II expression. In summary, we identified the Hippo signaling pathway as a novel regulator of cancer cell-intrinsic MHC-II expression. These findings suggest modulation of MHC-II in melanoma could potentially improve immunotherapy response.

In vivo CRISPR screens identify the E3 ligase Cop1 as a modulator of macrophage infiltration and cancer immunotherapy target.

Despite remarkable clinical efficacy of immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) in cancer treatment, ICB benefits for triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) remain limited. Through pooled in vivo CRISPR knockout (KO) screens in syngeneic TNBC mouse models, we found that deletion of the E3 ubiquitin ligase Cop1 in cancer cells decreases secretion of macrophage-associated chemokines, reduces tumor macrophage infiltration, enhances anti-tumor immunity, and strengthens ICB response. Transcriptomics, epigenomics, and proteomics analyses revealed that Cop1 functions through proteasomal degradation of the C/ebpδ protein. The Cop1 substrate Trib2 functions as a scaffold linking Cop1 and C/ebpδ, which leads to polyubiquitination of C/ebpδ. In addition, deletion of the E3 ubiquitin ligase Cop1 in cancer cells stabilizes C/ebpδ to suppress expression of macrophage chemoattractant genes. Our integrated approach implicates Cop1 as a target for improving cancer immunotherapy efficacy in TNBC by regulating chemokine secretion and macrophage infiltration in the tumor microenvironment.

Therapeutically Increasing MHC-I Expression Potentiates Immune Checkpoint Blockade.

Immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) therapy revolutionized cancer treatment, but many patients with impaired MHC-I expression remain refractory. Here, we combined FACS-based genome-wide CRISPR screens with a data-mining approach to identify drugs that can upregulate MHC-I without inducing PD-L1. CRISPR screening identified TRAF3, a suppressor of the NFκB pathway, as a negative regulator of MHC-I but not PD-L1. The Traf3-knockout gene expression signature is associated with better survival in ICB-naïve patients with cancer and better ICB response. We then screened for drugs with similar transcriptional effects as this signature and identified Second Mitochondria-derived Activator of Caspase (SMAC) mimetics. We experimentally validated that the SMAC mimetic birinapant upregulates MHC-I, sensitizes cancer cells to T cell-dependent killing, and adds to ICB efficacy. Our findings provide preclinical rationale for treating tumors expressing low MHC-I expression with SMAC mimetics to enhance sensitivity to immunotherapy. The approach used in this study can be generalized to identify other drugs that enhance immunotherapy efficacy. SIGNIFICANCE: MHC-I loss or downregulation in cancer cells is a major mechanism of resistance to T cell-based immunotherapies. Our study reveals that birinapant may be used for patients with low baseline MHC-I to enhance ICB response. This represents promising immunotherapy opportunities given the biosafety profile of birinapant from multiple clinical trials.This article is highlighted in the In This Issue feature, p. 1307.

Clonal tracing reveals diverse patterns of response to immune checkpoint blockade.

BACKGROUND: Immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) therapy has improved patient survival in a variety of cancers, but only a minority of cancer patients respond. Multiple studies have sought to identify general biomarkers of ICB response, but elucidating the molecular and cellular drivers of resistance for individual tumors remains challenging. We sought to determine whether a tumor with defined genetic background exhibits a stereotypic or heterogeneous response to ICB treatment. RESULTS: We establish a unique mouse system that utilizes clonal tracing and mathematical modeling to monitor the growth of each cancer clone, as well as the bulk tumor, in response to ICB. We find that tumors derived from the same clonal populations showed heterogeneous ICB response and diverse response patterns. Primary response is associated with higher immune infiltration and leads to enrichment of pre-existing ICB-resistant cancer clones. We further identify several cancer cell-intrinsic gene expression signatures associated with ICB resistance, including increased interferon response genes and glucocorticoid response genes. These findings are supported by clinical data from ICB treatment cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates diverse response patterns from the same ancestor cancer cells in response to ICB. This suggests the value of monitoring clonal constitution and tumor microenvironment over time to optimize ICB response and to design new combination therapies. Furthermore, as ICB response may enrich for cancer cell-intrinsic resistance signatures, this can affect interpretations of tumor RNA-seq data for response-signature association studies.