Hot and cold flavors of southern California's Santa Ana winds: their causes, trends, and links with wildfire.

Santa Ana winds (SAWs) are associated with anomalous temperatures in coastal Southern California (SoCal). As dry air flows over SoCal's coastal ranges on its way from the elevated Great Basin down to sea level, all SAWs warm adiabatically. Many but not all SAWs produce coastal heat events. The strongest regionally averaged SAWs tend to be cold. In fact, some of the hottest and coldest observed temperatures in coastal SoCal are linked to SAWs. We show that hot and cold SAWs are produced by distinct synoptic dynamics. High-amplitude anticyclonic flow around a blocking high pressure aloft anchored at the California coast produces hot SAWs. Cold SAWs result from anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking over the northwestern U.S. Hot SAWs are preceded by warming in the Great Basin and dry conditions across the Southwestern U.S. Precipitation over the Southwest, including SoCal, and snow accumulation in the Great Basin usually precede cold SAWs. Both SAW flavors, but especially the hot SAWs, yield low relative humidity at the coast. Although cold SAWs tend to be associated with the strongest winds, hot SAWs tend to last longer and preferentially favor wildfire growth. Historically, out of large (> 100 acres) SAW-spread wildfires, 90% were associated with hot SAWs, accounting for 95% of burned area. As health impacts of SAW-driven coastal fall, winter and spring heat waves and impacts of smoke from wildfires have been recently identified, our results have implications for designing early warning systems. The long-term warming trend in coastal temperatures associated with SAWs is focused on January-March, when hot and cold SAW frequency and temperature intensity have been increasing and decreasing, respectively, over our 71-year record. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-021-05802-z.

Racial/ethnic disparities in the association between fine particles and respiratory hospital admissions in San Diego county, CA.

Ambient air pollution exposure is associated with exacerbating respiratory illnesses. Race/ethnicity (R/E) have been shown to influence an individual's vulnerability to environmental health risks such as fine particles (PM 2.5). This study aims to assess the R/E disparities in vulnerability to air pollution with regards to respiratory hospital admissions in San Diego County, California where most days fall below National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for daily PM 2.5 concentrations. Daily PM 2.5 levels were estimated at the zip code level using a spatial interpolation using inverse-distance weighting from monitor networks. The association between daily PM 2.5 levels and respiratory hospital admissions in San Diego County over a 15-year period from 1999 to 2013 was assessed with a time-series analysis using a multi-level Poisson regression model. Cochran Q tests were used to assess the effect modification of race/ethnicity on this association. Daily fine particle levels varied greatly from 1 µg/m3 to 75.86 µg/m3 (SD = 6.08 µg/m3) with the majority of days falling below 24-hour NAAQS for PM 2.5 of 35 µg/m3. For every 10 µg/m3 increase in PM 2.5 levels, Black and White individuals had higher rates (8.6% and 6.2%, respectively) of hospitalization for respiratory admissions than observed in the county as a whole (4.1%). Increases in PM 2.5 levels drive an overall increase in respiratory hospital admissions with a disparate burden of health effects by R/E group. These findings suggest an opportunity to design interventions that address the unequal burden of air pollution among vulnerable communities in San Diego County that exist even below NAAQS for daily PM 2.5 concentrations.

Defining heat waves and extreme heat events using sub-regional meteorological data to maximize benefits of early warning systems to population health.

BACKGROUND: Extreme heat events have been consistently associated with an increased risk of hospitalization for various hospital diagnoses. Classifying heat events is particularly relevant for identifying the criteria to activate early warning systems. Heat event classifications may also differ due to heterogeneity in climates among different geographic regions, which may occur at a small scale. Using local meteorological data, we identified heat waves and extreme heat events that were associated with the highest burden of excess hospitalizations within the County of San Diego and quantified discrepancies using county-level meteorological criteria. METHODS: Eighteen event classifications were created using various combinations of temperature metric, percentile, and duration for both county-level and climate zone level meteorological data within San Diego County. Propensity score matching and Poisson regressions were utilized to ascertain the association between heat wave exposure and risk of hospitalization for heat-related illness and dehydration for the 1999-2013 period. We estimated both relative and absolute risks for each heat event classification in order to identify optimal definitions of heat waves and extreme heat events for the whole city and in each climate zone to target health impacts. RESULTS: Heat-related illness differs vastly by level (county or zone-specific), definition, and risk measure. We found the county-level definitions to be systematically biased when compared to climate zone definitions with the largest discrepancy of 56 attributable hospitalizations. The relative and attributable risks were often minimally correlated, which exemplified that relative risks alone are not adequate to optimize heat waves definitions. CONCLUSIONS: Definitions based on county-level defined thresholds do not provide an accurate picture of the observed health effects and will fail to maximize the potential effectiveness of heat warning systems. Absolute rather than relative risks are a more appropriate measure to define the set of criteria to activate early warnings systems and thus maximize public health benefits.

Associations between ambient temperature and hepatobiliary and renal hospitalizations in California, 1999 to 2009.

BACKGROUND: High ambient temperature has been linked to a number of types of morbidity, such as cardiovascular disease and dehydration. Fewer studies have explored specifically the relationship between ambient temperature and liver, kidney, and urinary system morbidity despite known biological impacts of extreme high temperatures on those systems. OBJECTIVE: We assessed the relationship between temperature and hospitalizations related to selected renal system (urinary stones, urinary tract infections, septicemia, chronic kidney disease, and a composite of selected kidney diseases) and hepatobiliary (biliary tract disease, other liver diseases [e.g. cirrhosis], non-diabetic pancreatic disorders) ailments. METHODS: We compiled data on daily hospitalization counts for hepatobiliary and renal system diseases in California for 1999 through 2009, and matched it with meteorological data. Relationships between temperature and admissions during the warm season (May-October) were assessed at the climate zone-level cumulative over 14 days following exposure using distributed lag non-linear models, with adjustment for time trends and relative humidity, then combined using random-effects meta-regression to create statewide estimates. RESULTS: Higher mean temperatures in the warm season were associated with significant increases in renal admissions for urinary tract infection [% change per 10 °F: 7.3, 95% CI: 5.6, 9.1], septicemia [% increase: 2.9; 95% CI: 1.5, 4.3], urinary stones [% increase: 15.2; 95% CI: 10.3, 20.4], and composite kidney disease. Additionally, increased temperatures were linked to increased admissions for biliary tract disease, but lower risk of other liver diseases. Some differences in association by race/ethnicity and regional meteorology were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to higher temperatures was associated with increased risk of multiple renal system hospitalization types, with additional links to specific hepatobiliary morbidities observed.

Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of Atmospheric Rivers.

Daily precipitation in California has been projected to become less frequent even as precipitation extremes intensify, leading to uncertainty in the overall response to climate warming. Precipitation extremes are historically associated with Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). Sixteen global climate models are evaluated for realism in modeled historical AR behavior and contribution of the resulting daily precipitation to annual total precipitation over Western North America. The five most realistic models display consistent changes in future AR behavior, constraining the spread of the full ensemble. They, moreover, project increasing year-to-year variability of total annual precipitation, particularly over California, where change in total annual precipitation is not projected with confidence. Focusing on three representative river basins along the West Coast, we show that, while the decrease in precipitation frequency is mostly due to non-AR events, the increase in heavy and extreme precipitation is almost entirely due to ARs. This research demonstrates that examining meteorological causes of precipitation regime change can lead to better and more nuanced understanding of climate projections. It highlights the critical role of future changes in ARs to Western water resources, especially over California.

Outpatient clinic visits during heat waves: findings from a large family medicine clinical database.

Introduction: The purpose of this study was to determine whether heat waves are associated with increased frequency of clinic visits for ICD-9 codes of illnesses traditionally associated with heat waves. Methods: During 4 years of family medicine clinic data between 2012 and 2016, we identified six heat wave events in San Diego County. For each heat wave event, we selected a control period in the same season that was twice as long. Scheduling a visit on a heat wave day (versus a non-heat wave day) was the primary predictor, and receiving a primary ICD-9 disease code related to heat waves was the outcome. Analyses were adjusted for age, gender, race/ethnicity and marital status. Results: Of the 5448 visits across the heat wave and control periods, 6.4% of visits (n = 346) were for heat wave-related diagnoses. Scheduling a visit on heat wave day was not associated with receiving a heat wave-related ICD code as compared with the control period (adjusted odds ratio: 1.35; 95% confidence interval: 0.86-1.36; P = 0.51). Discussion: We show that in a relatively large and demographically diverse population, patients who schedule appointments during heat waves are not being more frequently seen for diagnoses typically associated with heat waves in the acute setting. Given that heat waves are increasing in frequency due to climate change, there is an opportunity to increase utilization of primary care clinics during heat waves.

Heat, Disparities, and Health Outcomes in San Diego County's Diverse Climate Zones.

Climate variability and change are issues of growing public health importance. Numerous studies have documented risks of extreme heat on human health in different locations around the world. Strategies to prevent heat-related morbidity and reduce disparities are possible but require improved knowledge of health outcomes during hot days at a small-scale level as important within-city variability in local weather conditions, socio-demographic composition, and access to air conditioning (AC) may exist. We analyzed hospitalization data for three unique climate regions of San Diego County alongside temperature data spanning 14 years to quantify the health impact of ambient air temperature at varying exceedance threshold levels. Within San Diego, coastal residents were more sensitive to heat than inland residents. At the coast, we detected a health impact at lower temperatures compared to inland locations for multiple disease categories including heat illness, dehydration, acute renal failure, and respiratory disease. Within the milder coastal region where access to AC is not prevalent, heat-related morbidity was higher in the subset of zip codes where AC saturation is lowest. We detected a 14.6% increase (95% confidence interval [4.5%, 24.6%]) in hospitalizations during hot weather in comparison to colder days in coastal locations where AC is less common, while no significant impact was observed in areas with higher AC saturation. Disparities in AC ownership were associated with income, race/ethnicity, and homeownership. Given that heat waves are expected to increase with climate change, understanding health impacts of heat and the role of acclimation is critical for improving outcomes in the future.

Ambient temperature and added heat wave effects on hospitalizations in California from 1999 to 2009.

Investigators have examined how heat waves or incremental changes in temperature affect health outcomes, but few have examined both simultaneously. We utilized distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) to explore temperature associations and evaluate possible added heat wave effects on hospitalizations in 16 climate zones throughout California from May through October 1999-2009. We define heat waves as a period when daily mean temperatures were above the zone- and month-specific 95th percentile for at least two consecutive days. DLNMs were used to estimate climate zone-specific non-linear temperature and heat wave effects, which were then combined using random effects meta-analysis to produce an overall estimate for each. With higher temperatures, admissions for acute renal failure, appendicitis, dehydration, ischemic stroke, mental health, non-infectious enteritis, and primary diabetes were significantly increased, with added effects from heat waves observed for acute renal failure and dehydration. Higher temperatures also predicted statistically significant decreases in hypertension admissions, respiratory admissions, and respiratory diseases with secondary diagnoses of diabetes, though heat waves independently predicted an added increase in risk for both respiratory types. Our findings provide evidence that both heat wave and temperature exposures can exert effects independently.