Development of a tool to predict the risk of incident heart failure in a general population: the HUNT for HF risk score.

AIMS: Currently, no incident heart failure (HF) risk score that is in regular use in a general population is available. We aimed to develop this and compare with existing HF risk scores. METHODS AND RESULTS: Participants in the third wave (2006-08) of the population-based Trøndelag Health Study 3 (HUNT3) were included if they reported no previous HF. Any hospital diagnoses captured during follow-up (until the end of 2018) of HF, cardiomyopathy, or hypertensive heart disease were assessed by an experienced cardiologist. Valid HF events were defined as symptoms/signs of HF and objective evidence of structural/functional abnormality of the heart at rest. The model was compared with slightly modified HF risk scores (the Health Aging and Body Composition HF risk score, the Framingham HF risk score, the Pooled Cohort equations to Prevent HF risk score, and NORRISK 2). Among 36 511 participants (mean ± SD age of 57.9 ± 13.3 years, 55.4% female), with a mean follow-up of 10.2 ± 1.3 years, 1366 developed HF (incidence rate of 3.66 per 1000 participant years). Out of the 38 relevant clinical variables assessed, we identified 12 (atrial fibrillation being the strongest) that independently predicted an HF event. The final model demonstrated good discrimination (C statistics = 0.904) and calibration, was stable in internal validation, and performed well compared with existing risk scores. The model identified that, at enrolment, 31 391 (86%), 2386 (7%), 1246 (3%), and 1488 (4%) had low, low-intermediate, high-intermediate, and high 10-year HF risk, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Twelve clinical variables independently predicted 10-year HF risk. The model may serve well as the foundation of a practical, online risk score for HF in general practice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04648852.

Left Ventricular Systolic Function in Long-Term Survivors of Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT), a potentially curative therapy for malignant and nonmalignant diseases, is being increasingly used in younger patients. Although allo-HSCT survivors have an established increased risk of cardiovascular disease, there is limited knowledge of the long-term effects on cardiac function in survivors. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to describe left ventricular (LV) systolic function in long-term allo-HSCT survivors treated in childhood, adolescence, or early adulthood. METHODS: Our cross-sectional cohort study included 104 patients (56% women), age 18 ± 10 years at time allo-HSCT with 17 ± 6 years of follow-up. Echocardiography included 2-dimensional (2D) and 3-dimensional (3D) analyses and speckle tracking imaging. In total, 55 healthy control subjects with a similar age, sex, and body mass index were used for comparison. Left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD) was defined as reduced 2D left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) of <52% in men and <54% in women, and/or a reduced global longitudinal strain (GLS) of ≥-17%. Multivariable linear regression was used to determine independent predictors of 2D-LVEF and GLS. RESULTS: Allo-HSCT survivors had significantly reduced LV systolic function compared with control subjects: 2D-LVEF (55.2 ± 5.8% vs. 59.0 ± 2.9%; p < 0.001), 3D LVEF (54.0 ± 5.1% vs. 57.6 ± 2.7%; p < 0.001), and GLS (-17.5 ± 2.2% vs. -19.8 ± 1.4%; p < 0.001). LVSD was found in 44.2%, of whom 28.3% were symptomatic. Clinical factors independently associated with 2D-LVEF and/or GLS included age, anthracyclines, graft versus host disease (GVHD), heart rate, and hypertension. In the 45% of survivors pre-treated with anthracyclines, the effect of anthracyclines on 2D-LVEF and GLS was dose-dependent. CONCLUSIONS: LVSD is common in long-term survivors of allo-HSCT treated in their youth. Pre-HSCT therapies with anthracyclines, age, heart rate, hypertension, and graft versus host disease are associated with measures of LV function.

Patient-reported outcomes after referral for possible valve replacement in patients with severe aortic stenosis.

OBJECTIVES: Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is an important outcome after surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR). To improve interpretation of HRQoL, mean score change and change in terms of minimal important difference (MID) were assessed using validated instruments for measuring patient-reported outcomes in patients with severe aortic stenosis referred for possible SAVR. METHODS: Of the 442 included patients with severe aortic stenosis evaluated for possible SAVR, 351 were referred to SAVR (operated) and 91 to medical treatment (unoperated). At presurgical evaluation and 1 year postoperatively, HRQoL was assessed using SF-36v2 and EQ-5D. Results were compared with outcomes reported in unoperated patients. We explored the association of clinical factors and improvements corresponding to MID. RESULTS: Among the operated patients, statistically significant change was found for EQ-5D scores and SF-36 scale scores for physical functioning, role-physical, bodily pain, general health, vitality and physical summary score. The largest proportion of operated patients achieving change corresponding to at least MID was 61.5% for physical summary score. Change in unoperated patients also related largely to physical scales of the SF-36. However, smaller proportions of unoperated patients reported improvements, and larger proportions reported decline reaching MID. Baseline scores, but no clinical covariates, were consistently associated with improved HRQoL reaching MID across instruments for those referred to SAVR. CONCLUSIONS: This study found improvement in HRQoL 1 year after SAVR for patients with severe aortic stenosis. Results in unoperated patients suggest that HRQoL deteriorates 1 year after evaluation of possible SAVR. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01794832).

Long-term follow-up of a hospital-based, multi-intervention programme in type 2 diabetes mellitus: impact on cardiovascular events and death.

Objective To report the long-term impact on cardiovascular (CV) outcomes and mortality of a 2-year hospital-based multi-interventional care programme as compared with general practitioner (GP)-provided standard care. Methods Patients with type 2 diabetes with ≥ 1 additional CV risk factor were randomized to 2 years of specialist-based, multi-intervention comprising lifestyle modification and specific pharmacological treatment, or GP-based standard care. After the 2-year intervention period, all participants returned to pre-study care, but were followed up for CV outcomes and mortality. The primary outcome was time to any first severe CV event or death. Results A total of 120 patients (31 women) were enrolled in the study. During the mean ± SD observational period of 8.7 ± 2.0 years, 27 patients (16 and 11 in the multi-intervention and standard care groups, respectively) experienced at least one primary outcome event, with a hazard ratio (HR) if allocated to the multi-intervention group of 1.73 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.80, 3.75). The HR for total mortality was 1.82 (95% CI 0.66, 5.01). Conclusions Hospital-based multi-intervention in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus improved long-term glycaemic control, but failed to reduce CV outcomes and deaths. Clinical trials.gov id: NCT00133718.