RESUMO
Morbidity management of filarial lymphedema remains a challenge even during the post-lymphatic filariasis elimination era in Sri Lanka despite provision of the predominantly hygiene-based WHO Essential Package of Care. Because prior studies have suggested that 6 weeks of doxycycline may reduce progression of limb lymphedema, we conducted a randomized, placebo-controlled, superiority study to evaluate this possibility in Sri Lanka. Patients aged 14 to 65 years with lymphedema in one or both legs received either 200 mg of doxycycline daily for 6 weeks or matching placebo. The primary efficacy endpoint was improvement or lack of progression in lymphedema stage at 24 months postenrollment. Secondary endpoints included change in lymphedema stage at 12 and 24 months, frequency of acute adenolymphangitis episodes, and perceived disability measured by the WHO Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0 (WHODAS 2.0). Training and supplies for limb hygiene were provided throughout the study. Two hundred participants (100 in each arm) with lymphedema of Dreyer stages 1 to 3 were enrolled. By the end of the 2-year study, 29% of the doxycycline patients and 34% of those on placebo showed improvement (i.e., a decrease in lymphedema stage), whereas 11% and 15% of the two groups showed worsening of the lymphedema. Adenolymphangitis rates were comparable in the two groups (43 doxycycline and 38 placebo recipients), although attacks lasted slightly longer in placebo patients (6.5 days versus 5.2 days). In both groups, perceived disability improved initially, with partial rebound in the second year. Only 34 adverse events affecting 24 patients (11%) occurred during the 6-week treatment period. Although doxycycline did not significantly impact lymphedema progression in this study, the results clearly indicate that clinical and personal benefits can be obtained from intensive hygiene management alone.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Although mass treatments have led to huge reductions in LF prevalence, some countries or regions may find it difficult to achieve elimination by 2030 owing to various factors, including local differences in transmission. Subnational projections of intervention impact are a useful tool in understanding these dynamics, but correctly characterizing their uncertainty is challenging. METHODS: We developed a computationally feasible framework for providing subnational projections for LF across 44 sub-Saharan African countries using ensemble models, guided by historical control data, to allow assessment of the role of subnational heterogeneities in global goal achievement. Projected scenarios include ongoing annual treatment from 2018 to 2030, enhanced coverage, and biannual treatment. RESULTS: Our projections suggest that progress is likely to continue well. However, highly endemic locations currently deploying strategies with the lower World Health Organization recommended coverage (65%) and frequency (annual) are expected to have slow decreases in prevalence. Increasing intervention frequency or coverage can accelerate progress by up to 5 or 6 years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: While projections based on baseline data have limitations, our methodological advancements provide assessments of potential bottlenecks for the global goals for LF arising from subnational heterogeneities. In particular, areas with high baseline prevalence may face challenges in achieving the 2030 goals, extending the "tail" of interventions. Enhancing intervention frequency and/or coverage will accelerate progress. Our approach facilitates preimplementation assessments of the impact of local interventions and is applicable to other regions and neglected tropical diseases.