Climate warming worsens thermal resource utilization for practical rice cultivation in China.

Rice production is sensitive to climate change and significantly affected by warming in recent years. To what extent climate warming shifted rice phenology and varied thermal resource condition were explored across five agro-ecological zones in China, based on up-to-date observations of meteorology and rice cultivation in 1981-2020. It was clearly signaled that there was a general advance of 0.3-3.8 days in observed sowing date and a delay of 0.4-3.5 days in observed maturity date in 2001-2020 relative to 1981-2000 in major zones. A vacant time slice of 2.6-28.8 days between observed sowing date and potential sowing date, and a lag of 15.4-56.7 days in potential maturity date compared to observed maturity date were identified in 2001-2020. Within longer growing season, useful accumulated temperature increased by 76.7-117.6 °C·d in 2001-2020 relative to 1981-2000, while disactive accumulated temperature also increased. In Northeast China, actual rice cultivation was undergoing earlier sowing date than potential sowing date and longer growing duration than potential duration, yet leading to upward disactive accumulated temperature. The decrease in the thermal resource utilization in 2001-2020 relative to 1981-2000 was highlighted at 55.3-78.3% stations in major zones, with a decrement of 0.006-0.018 in average magnitude. The changes in thermal resource utilization unveiled that the shifts in actual rice cultivation still could not compensate for the suitability in thermal resource utilization benefited from climate warming.

Effectiveness of potato late blight (Phytophthora infestans) forecast by meteorological estimation in mountainous terrain based on CARAH rules.

Potato late blight (PLB) caused by Phytophthora infestans (Mont.) de Bary, its incidence and development are highly dependent on meteorological conditions. To solve the problem of PLB in mountainous terrain under the condition of limited meteorological monitoring capability, the air temperature and humidity was estimated based on the basic meteorological datasets, the forecast effect of the onset period and infection cycle of PLB based on CARAH rules was evaluated. The average MAE, RMSE and CI of the estimated air temperature and observations were 1.17 °C, 1.52 °C and 0.95, respectively. The average MAE, RMSE and CI of the estimated relative humidity and observations were 8.0 %, 10.7 % and 0.53, respectively. The curve of the infection cycle of PLB at different locations were estimated from the basic meteorological datasets based on the CARAH rules, and the false alarm and missing ratios were 8.8 % and 4.6 % respectively. It may be delayed by 1 or 2 fungal generations compared to the observations, and then the protective fungicide should be adjusted to a systemic fungicide. The false alarm of the infection cycle of PLB may increase in dry air conditions, and the missing report may occur in humid condition.

The influence of excess precipitation on winter wheat under climate change in China from 1961 to 2017.

Winter wheat is one of China's most important staple food crops, and its growth and productivity are influenced by climate. Given its importance, we investigated the influence of excess precipitation under recent climate change on winter wheat in east-central China during 1961-2017. Although annual precipitation in the studied region decreased slightly, it increased during the winter wheat flowering and maturity period (May to June). Concurrently, the number of late growing season sunshine hours decreased. Our results showed that about 44% of the years with excess precipitation and less than normal radiation (16 years) were associated with decreasing winter wheat yields. Furthermore, during most years, precipitation of 50% above normal resulted in large decreases in winter wheat production in Jiangsu and Anhui provinces, some of the wetter parts of the studied region. These results indicated that the grain yield variability of winter wheat was mainly influenced by excess precipitation in May, where precipitation could explain 70%-78% of yield variability in the wet parts. Moreover, excess precipitation can induce Fusarium head blight as well as wheat sprouting of pre-harvest, both affecting the grain quality of winter wheat. Projected increases in precipitation throughout the 21st century in the studied region, warrants further studies of how to maintain the winter wheat production in a changing climate.

Economic losses due to ozone impacts on human health, forest productivity and crop yield across China.

China's economic growth has significantly increased emissions of tropospheric ozone (O3) precursors, resulting in increased regional O3 pollution. We analyzed data from >1400 monitoring stations and estimated the exposure of population and vegetation (crops and forests) to O3 pollution across China in 2015. Based on WHO metrics for human health protection, the current O3 level leads to +0.9% premature mortality (59,844 additional cases a year) with 96% of populated areas showing O3-induced premature death. For vegetation, O3 reduces annual forest tree biomass growth by 11-13% and yield of rice and wheat by 8% and 6%, respectively, relative to conditions below the respective AOT40 critical levels (CL). These CLs are exceeded over 98%, 75% and 83% of the areas of forests, rice and wheat, respectively. Using O3 exposure-response functions, we evaluated the costs of O3-induced losses in rice (7.5 billion US$), wheat (11.1 billion US$) and forest production (52.2 billion US$) and SOMO35-based morbidity for respiratory diseases (690.9 billion US$) and non-accidental mortality (7.5 billion US$), i.e. a total O3-related cost representing 7% of the China Gross Domestic Product in 2015.

[Mathematical simulation of stomatal regulation involving root-sourced signaling ABA under soil drought condition].

A stomatal conduction model consisting of root water uptake model and stomatal control model under the participation of root-sourced signal ABA was developed in this paper, which considered the root water uptake effect function and root length density distribution function during root-sourced signal production. This model was used to simulate the course of maize stomatal conduction controlled by the root-sourced signal in field. The results showed that owing to the considering of the influence of root water uptake effect function and root length density distribution in soil profile, this model could more accurately depict the intensity of root water uptake, the ABA concentration produced in root system, the root ABA concentration in different soil layers and in xylem, and the controlling process of plant stomatal regulation by root-sourced ABA.

[Mechanism of stomatal regulation by root sourced signaling and its agricultural signficance].

Under soil drought condition, root sourced signal abcisic acid (ABA) plays an important role in the long distance signaling process, and can be a measurement of soil water availability. ABA is also an effective stomatal closing agent, and acts to reduce transpiration and canopy water loss. This paper briefly introduced the physiological mechanism and theoretical model about the stomatal regulation by root sourced signaling, and indicated that the combination of this model with root water absorption model and stomatal conductance model could be more effective in depicting the response of plant to soil drying and atmospheric drought. In addition, some effective irrigation approaches, such as regulated deficit irrigation (RDI), partial root-zone drying (PRD) and controlled alternative irrigation (CAI) were profited from the mechanism of plant water use regulation by the root sourced signaling. These irrigation measures favored to reasonably distribute available soil water in root-zone. Root signaling system also played important role in regulating root growth and its development, retarding shoot growth to adjusting root shoot ratio, and optimizing assimilation allocation to favor to improve reproductive development. These processes hold substantial promise for enhancing crop water use efficiency.