Peak grain forecasts for the US High Plains amid withering waters.

Irrigated agriculture contributes 40% of total global food production. In the US High Plains, which produces more than 50 million tons per year of grain, as much as 90% of irrigation originates from groundwater resources, including the Ogallala aquifer. In parts of the High Plains, groundwater resources are being depleted so rapidly that they are considered nonrenewable, compromising food security. When groundwater becomes scarce, groundwater withdrawals peak, causing a subsequent peak in crop production. Previous descriptions of finite natural resource depletion have utilized the Hubbert curve. By coupling the dynamics of groundwater pumping, recharge, and crop production, Hubbert-like curves emerge, responding to the linked variations in groundwater pumping and grain production. On a state level, this approach predicted when groundwater withdrawal and grain production peaked and the lag between them. The lags increased with the adoption of efficient irrigation practices and higher recharge rates. Results indicate that, in Texas, withdrawals peaked in 1966, followed by a peak in grain production 9 y later. After better irrigation technologies were adopted, the lag increased to 15 y from 1997 to 2012. In Kansas, where these technologies were employed concurrently with the rise of irrigated grain production, this lag was predicted to be 24 y starting in 1994. In Nebraska, grain production is projected to continue rising through 2050 because of high recharge rates. While Texas and Nebraska had equal irrigated output in 1975, by 2050, it is projected that Nebraska will have almost 10 times the groundwater-based production of Texas.

Co-designed Land-use Scenarios and their Implications for Storm Runoff and Streamflow in New England.

Landscape and climate changes have the potential to create or exacerbate problems with stormwater management, high flows, and flooding. In New England, four plausible land-use scenarios were co-developed with stakeholders to give insight to the effects on ecosystem services of different trajectories of socio-economic connectedness and natural resource innovation. With respect to water, the service of greatest interest to New England stakeholders is the reduction of stormwater and flooding. To assess the effects of these land-use scenarios, we applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to two watersheds under two climates. Differences in land use had minimal effects on the water balance but did affect high flows and the contribution of storm runoff to streamflow. For most scenarios, the effect on high flows was small. For one scenario-envisioned to have global socio-economic connectedness and low levels of natural resource innovation-growth in impervious areas increased the annual maximum daily flow by 10%, similar to the 5-15% increase attributable to climate change. Under modest population growth, land-use decisions have little effect on storm runoff and high flows; however, for the two scenarios characterized by global socio-economic connectedness, differences in choices regarding land use and impervious area have a large impact on the potential for flooding. Results also indicate a potential interaction between climate and land use with a shift to more high flows resulting from heavy rains than from snowmelt. These results can help inform land use and development, especially when combined with assessments of effects on other ecosystem services.

Modeling seasonal water yield for landscape management: Applications in Peru and Myanmar.

A common objective of watershed management programs is to secure water supply, especially during the dry season. To develop such programs in contexts of low data and resource availability, program managers need tools to understand the effect of landscape management on the seasonal water balance. However, the performance of simple, parsimonious models is poorly understood. Here, we examine the behavior of a geospatial tool, developed to map monthly water budgets and baseflow contributions and forming part of the InVEST (integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs) software suite. The model uses monthly climate, topography, and land-use data to compute spatial indices of groundwater recharge, baseflow, and quickflow. We illustrate the model application in two large basins in Peru and Myanmar, where we compare results with observed data and alternative hydrologic models. We show that the spatial distribution of baseflow contributions correlated well with an established model in the Peruvian basin (r2 = 0.81 at the parcel scale). In Myanmar, the model shows an overall satisfactory performance for representing month to month variation (Nash-Sutcliffe-Efficiency 0.6-0.8); however, errors are scale dependent highlighting limitations in representing processes in large basins. Our study highlights modeling challenges, in particular trade-offs between model complexity and accuracy, and illustrates the role that parsimonious models can play to support watershed management programs.

Storage and release of road-salt contamination from a calcareous lake-basin fen, western Massachusetts, USA.

Road salt (NaCl) applications to highways have increased stream sodium and chloride concentrations due to retention within watersheds. The mechanisms for retention and export of Na(+) and Cl(-) from different environments are not fully understood. This field study examines the hydrologic and cation exchange processes that store and release Na(+) and Cl(-) from a calcareous fen adjacent to a highway. Despite high concentrations of Ca(2+) and Mg(2+), elevated salt concentrations enable Na(+) to occupy up to 15% of the cation exchange capacity of shallow peat. Calculations of selectivity coefficients show that Na(+) preferentially exchanges with Mg(2+), and Na(+) can be desorbed under more dilute conditions caused by precipitation and snowmelt. Detailed sampling of surface and ground waters during three snowmelt events illustrate early releases of Na(+) and Cl(-) at the onset of melting, with maximum fluxes coinciding with peak discharge. From 7 March through 4 April 2005, the flux of dissolved salt exiting the wetland amounts to 13% (Na) and 17% (Cl) of annual rock salt applied to the highway. For all of 2005, the total salt mass leaving the wetland via Kampoosa Brook is similar to the amount of road salt applied; 50% of the annual salt efflux occurred during the snowmelt season of March through May. In general, exported Na(+) and Cl(-) correlate with the number of lane miles of highway crossing the watershed. Large rain events outside of winter months are more effective than snowmelt with reducing dissolved salts because snowmelt also introduces contamination. For this and other wetlands having alkaline geochemistry and high flushing rates, management strategies that reduce rock salt amounts to roadways will assist with reducing salt contamination to levels less toxic to vegetation and aquatic organisms.