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BACKGROUND: Innovation for reforming health and social care is high on the policy agenda in the United Kingdom in response to the growing needs of an ageing population. However, information about new innovations of care being implemented is sparse. METHODS: We mapped innovations for people in later life in two regions, North East England and South East Scotland. Data collection included discussions with stakeholders (n = 51), semi-structured interviews (n = 14) and website searches that focused on technology, evaluation and health inequalities. We analysed qualitative data using framework and thematic analyses. Quantitative data were analysed descriptively. RESULTS: One hundred eleven innovations were identified across the two regions. Interviewees reported a wide range of technologies that had been rapidly introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic and many remained in use. Digital exclusion of certain groups of older people was an ongoing concern. Innovations fell into two groups; system-level ones that aimed to alleviate systems pressures such as preventing hospital (re)admissions, and patient-level ones which sought to enhance health and wellbeing directly. Interviewees were aware of the importance of health inequalities but lacked data to monitor the impact of innovations on these, and evaluation was challenging due to lack of time, training, and support. Quantitative findings revealed that two thirds of innovations (n = 74, 67%) primarily focused on the system level, whilst a third (n = 37, 33%) primarily focused on the patient-level. Overall, over half (n = 65, 59%) of innovations involved technologies although relatively few (n = 12, 11%) utilised advanced technologies. Very few (n = 16, 14%) focused on reducing health inequalities, and only a minority of innovations (n = 43, 39%) had undergone evaluation (most of which were conducted by the service providers themselves). CONCLUSIONS: We found a wide range of innovative care services being developed for people in later life, yet alignment with key policy priorities, such as addressing health inequalities, was limited. There was a strong focus on technology, with little consideration for the potential to widen the health inequality gap. The absence of robust evaluation was also a concern as most innovations were implemented without support to monitor effectiveness and/or without plans for sustainability and spread.
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COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Idoso , Reino Unido , SARS-CoV-2 , Escócia , Inglaterra , Serviço Social/organização & administração , Pesquisa Qualitativa , Inovação Organizacional , Pandemias , Entrevistas como AssuntoRESUMO
Coronary artery disease continues to be the leading cause of death globally. Identifying patients who are at risk of coronary artery disease remains a public health priority. At present, the focus of cardiovascular disease prevention relies heavily on probabilistic risk scoring despite no randomized controlled trials demonstrating their efficacy. The concept of using imaging to guide preventative therapy is not new, but has previously focused on indirect measures such as carotid intima-media thickening or coronary artery calcification. In recent trials, patients found to have coronary artery disease on computed tomography (CT) coronary angiography were more likely to be started on preventative therapy and had lower rates of cardiac events. This led to the design of the SCOT-HEART 2 (Scottish Computed Tomography of the Heart 2) trial, which aims to determine whether screening with the use of CT coronary angiography is more clinically effective than cardiovascular risk scoring to guide the use of primary preventative therapies and reduce the risk of myocardial infarction.
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OBJECTIVES: To quantify prevalence, harms, and NHS costs in England of problematic oral non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) prescribing in high risk groups. DESIGN: Population based cohort and economic modelling study. SETTING: Economic models estimating patient harm associated with NSAID specific hazardous prescribing events, and cost to the English NHS, over a 10 year period, were combined with trends of hazardous prescribing event to estimate national levels of patient harm and NHS costs. PARTICIPANTS: Eligible participants were prescribed oral NSAIDs and were in five high risk groups: older adults (≥65 years) with no gastroprotection; people who concurrently took oral anticoagulants; or those with heart failure, chronic kidney disease, or a history of peptic ulcer. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence of hazardous prescribing events, by each event and overall, discounted quality adjusted life years (QALYs) lost, and cost to the NHS in England of managing harm. RESULTS: QALY losses and cost increases were observed for each hazardous prescribing event (v no hazardous prescribing event). Mean QALYs per person were between 0.01 (95% credibility interval (CI) 0.01 to 0.02) lower with history of peptic ulcer, to 0.11 (0.04 to 0.19) lower with chronic kidney disease. Mean cost increases ranged from a non-statistically significant £14 (17; $18) (95% CI -£71 to £98) in heart failure, to a statistically significant £1097 (£236 to £2542) in people concurrently taking anticoagulants. Prevalence of hazardous prescribing events per 1000 patients ranged from 0.11 in people who have had a peptic ulcer to 1.70 in older adults. Nationally, the most common hazardous prescribing event (older adults with no gastroprotection) resulted in 1929 (1416 to 2452) QALYs lost, costing £2.46m (£0.65m to £4.68m). The greatest impact was in people concurrently taking oral anticoagulants: 2143 (894 to 4073) QALYs lost, costing £25.41m (£5.25m to £60.01m). Over 10 years, total QALYs lost were estimated to be 6335 (4471 to 8658) and an NHS cost for England of £31.43m (£9.28m to £67.11m). CONCLUSIONS: NSAIDs continue to be a source of avoidable harm and healthcare cost in these five high risk populations, especially in inducing an acute event in people with chronic condition and people taking oral anticoagulants.
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Anti-Inflamatórios não Esteroides , Modelos Econômicos , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Humanos , Anti-Inflamatórios não Esteroides/economia , Anti-Inflamatórios não Esteroides/efeitos adversos , Anti-Inflamatórios não Esteroides/uso terapêutico , Anti-Inflamatórios não Esteroides/administração & dosagem , Inglaterra/epidemiologia , Idoso , Masculino , Feminino , Administração Oral , Medicina Estatal/economia , Estudos de Coortes , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Anticoagulantes/economia , Anticoagulantes/efeitos adversos , Anticoagulantes/uso terapêutico , Anticoagulantes/administração & dosagem , Insuficiência Cardíaca/economia , Insuficiência Cardíaca/tratamento farmacológico , Insuficiência Cardíaca/epidemiologia , Úlcera Péptica/economia , Prescrição Inadequada/economia , Prescrição Inadequada/estatística & dados numéricos , Insuficiência Renal Crônica/economia , Insuficiência Renal Crônica/epidemiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Frailty, a state of increased vulnerability to adverse health outcomes, has garnered significant attention in research and clinical practice. Existing constructs aggregate clinical features or health deficits into a single score. While simple and interpretable, this approach may overlook the complexity of frailty and not capture the full range of variation between individuals. METHODS: Exploratory factor analysis was used to infer latent dimensions of a frailty index constructed using survey data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, wave 9. The dataset included 58 self-reported health deficits in a representative sample of community-dwelling adults aged 65+ (N=4971). Deficits encompassed chronic disease, general health status, mobility, independence with activities of daily living, psychological well-being, memory and cognition. Multiple linear regression examined associations with CASP-19 quality of life scores. RESULTS: Factor analysis revealed four frailty subdimensions. Based on the component deficits with the highest loading values, these factors were labelled 'mobility impairment and physical morbidity', 'difficulties in daily activities', 'mental health' and 'disorientation in time'. The four subdimensions were a better predictor of quality of life than frailty index scores. CONCLUSIONS: Distinct subdimensions of frailty can be identified from standard index scores. A decomposed approach to understanding frailty has a potential to provide a more nuanced understanding of an individual's state of health across multiple deficits.
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BACKGROUND: There has been significant investment in pharmacists working in UK general practice to improve the effective and safe use of medicines. However, evidence of how to optimise collaboration between GPs and pharmacists in the context of polypharmacy (multiple medication) is lacking. AIM: To explore GP and pharmacist views and experiences of in-person, inter-professional collaborative discussions (IPCDs) as part of a complex intervention to optimise medication use for patients with polypharmacy in general practice. DESIGN AND SETTING: A mixed-method process evaluation embedded within the Improving Medicines use in People with Polypharmacy in Primary Care (IMPPP) trial conducted in Bristol and the West Midlands. METHOD: Audio-recordings of IPCDs between GPs and pharmacists, and individual semi-structured interviews exploring their reflections on these discussions. All recordings were transcribed verbatim and analysed thematically. RESULTS: Fourteen practices took part in the process evaluation (Feb 2021- Sept 2023). Seventeen IPCD meetings were audio recorded discussing 30 patients (range of 1-6 patients per meeting). Six GPs and 13 pharmacists were interviewed. The IPCD was highly valued by GPs and pharmacists who described benefits including: strengthening their working relationship; learning from each other; and gaining in confidence to manage more complex patients. It was often challenging, however, to find time for the IPCDs. CONCLUSION: The model of IPCD studied provided protected time for GPs and pharmacists to work together to deliver whole-patient care, with both professions finding this beneficial. Protected time for inter-professional liaison and collaboration, and structured interventions may facilitate improved patient care.
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Objectives: To assess whether age, sex, comorbidity count, and race and ethnic group are associated with the likelihood of trial participants not being enrolled in a trial for any reason (ie, screen failure). Design: Bayesian meta-analysis of individual participant level data. Setting: Industry funded phase 3/4 trials of chronic medical conditions. Participants: Participants were identified using individual participant level data to be in either the enrolled group or screen failure group. Data were available for 52 trials involving 72 178 screened individuals of whom 24 733 (34%) were excluded from the trial at the screening stage. Main outcome measures: For each trial, logistic regression models were constructed to assess likelihood of screen failure in people who had been invited to screening, and were regressed on age (per 10 year increment), sex (male v female), comorbidity count (per one additional comorbidity), and race or ethnic group. Trial level analyses were combined in Bayesian hierarchical models with pooling across condition. Results: In age and sex adjusted models across all trials, neither age nor sex was associated with increased odds of screen failure, although weak associations were detected after additionally adjusting for comorbidity (odds ratio of age, per 10 year increment was 1.02 (95% credibility interval 1.01 to 1.04) and male sex (0.95 (0.91 to 1.00)). Comorbidity count was weakly associated with screen failure, but in an unexpected direction (0.97 per additional comorbidity (0.94 to 1.00), adjusted for age and sex). People who self-reported as black seemed to be slightly more likely to fail screening than people reporting as white (1.04 (0.99 to 1.09)); a weak effect that seemed to persist after adjustment for age, sex, and comorbidity count (1.05 (0.98 to 1.12)). The between-trial heterogeneity was generally low, evidence of heterogeneity by sex was noted across conditions (variation in odds ratios on log scale of 0.01-0.13). Conclusions: Although the conclusions are limited by uncertainty about the completeness or accuracy of data collection among participants who were not randomised, we identified mostly weak associations with an increased likelihood of screen failure for age, sex, comorbidity count, and black race or ethnic group. Proportionate increases in screening these underserved populations may improve representation in trials. Trial registration number: PROSPERO CRD42018048202.
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INTRODUCTION: Predicting risk of care home admission could identify older adults for early intervention to support independent living but require external validation in a different dataset before clinical use. We systematically reviewed external validations of care home admission risk prediction models in older adults. METHODS: We searched Medline, Embase and Cochrane Library until 14 August 2023 for external validations of prediction models for care home admission risk in adults aged ≥65 years with up to 3 years of follow-up. We extracted and narratively synthesised data on study design, model characteristics, and model discrimination and calibration (accuracy of predictions). We assessed risk of bias and applicability using Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool. RESULTS: Five studies reporting validations of nine unique models were included. Model applicability was fair but risk of bias was mostly high due to not reporting model calibration. Morbidities were used as predictors in four models, most commonly neurological or psychiatric diseases. Physical function was also included in four models. For 1-year prediction, three of the six models had acceptable discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)/c statistic 0.70-0.79) and the remaining three had poor discrimination (AUC < 0.70). No model accounted for competing mortality risk. The only study examining model calibration (but ignoring competing mortality) concluded that it was excellent. CONCLUSIONS: The reporting of models was incomplete. Model discrimination was at best acceptable, and calibration was rarely examined (and ignored competing mortality risk when examined). There is a need to derive better models that account for competing mortality risk and report calibration as well as discrimination.
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Instituição de Longa Permanência para Idosos , Casas de Saúde , Admissão do Paciente , Humanos , Idoso , Medição de Risco/métodos , Admissão do Paciente/estatística & dados numéricos , Casas de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Instituição de Longa Permanência para Idosos/estatística & dados numéricos , Avaliação Geriátrica/métodos , Fatores de Risco , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Masculino , Fatores de TempoRESUMO
Background: Many people survive critical illness with the burden of new or worsened mental health issues and sleep disturbances. We examined the frequency of psychotropic prescribing after critical illness, comparing critical care to non-critical care hospitalised survivors, and whether this varied in important subgroups. Methods: This retrospective cohort study included 23,340 critical care and 367,185 non-critical care hospitalised adults from 2012 through 2019 in Lothian, Scotland, who survived to discharge. Results: One-third of critical care survivors (32%; 7527/23,340) received a psychotropic prescription within 90 days after hospital discharge (25% antidepressants; 14% anxiolytics/hypnotics; 4% antipsychotics/mania medicines). In contrast, 15% (54,589/367,185) of non-critical care survivors received a psychotropic prescription (12% antidepressants; 5% anxiolytics/hypnotics; 2% antipsychotics/mania medicines). Among patients without psychotropic prescriptions within 180 days prior to hospitalisation, after hospital discharge, the critical care group had a higher incidence of psychotropic prescription (10.3%; 1610/15,609) compared with the non-critical care group (3.2%; 9743/307,429); unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) 3.39, 95% CI: 3.22-3.57. After adjustment for potential confounders, the risk remained elevated (adjusted HR 2.03, 95% CI: 1.91-2.16), persisted later in follow-up (90-365 days; adjusted HR 1.38, 95% CI: 1.30-1.46), and was more pronounced in those without recorded comorbidities (adjusted HR 3.49, 95% CI: 3.22-3.78). Conclusions: Critical care survivors have a higher risk of receiving psychotropic prescriptions than hospitalised patients, with a significant proportion receiving benzodiazepines and other hypnotics. Future research should focus on the requirement for and safety of psychotropic medicines in survivors of critical illness, to help guide policy for clinical practice.
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OBJECTIVE: To investigate risks of multiple adverse outcomes associated with use of antipsychotics in people with dementia. DESIGN: Population based matched cohort study. SETTING: Linked primary care, hospital and mortality data from Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), England. POPULATION: Adults (≥50 years) with a diagnosis of dementia between 1 January 1998 and 31 May 2018 (n=173 910, 63.0% women). Each new antipsychotic user (n=35 339, 62.5% women) was matched with up to 15 non-users using incidence density sampling. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcomes were stroke, venous thromboembolism, myocardial infarction, heart failure, ventricular arrhythmia, fracture, pneumonia, and acute kidney injury, stratified by periods of antipsychotic use, with absolute risks calculated using cumulative incidence in antipsychotic users versus matched comparators. An unrelated (negative control) outcome of appendicitis and cholecystitis combined was also investigated to detect potential unmeasured confounding. RESULTS: Compared with non-use, any antipsychotic use was associated with increased risks of all outcomes, except ventricular arrhythmia. Current use (90 days after a prescription) was associated with elevated risks of pneumonia (hazard ratio 2.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.10 to 2.28), acute kidney injury (1.72, 1.61 to 1.84), venous thromboembolism (1.62, 1.46 to 1.80), stroke (1.61, 1.52 to 1.71), fracture (1.43, 1.35 to 1.52), myocardial infarction (1.28, 1.15 to 1.42), and heart failure (1.27, 1.18 to 1.37). No increased risks were observed for the negative control outcome (appendicitis and cholecystitis). In the 90 days after drug initiation, the cumulative incidence of pneumonia among antipsychotic users was 4.48% (4.26% to 4.71%) versus 1.49% (1.45% to 1.53%) in the matched cohort of non-users (difference 2.99%, 95% CI 2.77% to 3.22%). CONCLUSIONS: Antipsychotic use compared with non-use in adults with dementia was associated with increased risks of stroke, venous thromboembolism, myocardial infarction, heart failure, fracture, pneumonia, and acute kidney injury, but not ventricular arrhythmia. The range of adverse outcomes was wider than previously highlighted in regulatory alerts, with the highest risks soon after initiation of treatment.
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Injúria Renal Aguda , Antipsicóticos , Apendicite , Colecistite , Demência , Insuficiência Cardíaca , Infarto do Miocárdio , Pneumonia , Acidente Vascular Cerebral , Tromboembolia Venosa , Adulto , Humanos , Feminino , Masculino , Antipsicóticos/uso terapêutico , Estudos de Coortes , Tromboembolia Venosa/epidemiologia , Apendicite/complicações , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/epidemiologia , Infarto do Miocárdio/epidemiologia , Arritmias Cardíacas/complicações , Insuficiência Cardíaca/induzido quimicamente , Demência/tratamento farmacológico , Pneumonia/tratamento farmacológico , Injúria Renal Aguda/induzido quimicamenteRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Expanding primary care multi-disciplinary teams (MDTs) was a key component of the 2018 Scottish GP contract, with over 4,700 MDT staff appointed since then. AIM: To explore patients' views on primary care MDT expansion in Scotland. DESIGN AND METHODS: (1) Survey of patients recently consulting a GP in deprived-urban, affluent-urban and remote/rural areas, assessing awareness of five MDT roles and attitudes towards receptionist signposting; (2) 30 individual interviews exploring MDT-care experiences. RESULTS: Of 1,053 survey respondents, most were unaware of the option of MDT rather than GP consultations for three out of five roles (69% unaware of link worker appointments; 68% mental health nurse; 58% pharmacist). Reception signposting was less popular in deprived-urban areas (34% unhappy vs 29% in remote/rural vs 21% affluent-urban; P<0.001), and in patients with multimorbidity (31% unhappy vs 24% in non-multimorbid; P<0.05).Two-thirds of interviewees had multimorbidity and almost all reported positive MDT-care experiences. However, MDT-care was generally seen as a supplement rather than a substitute for GP care. Around half of patients expressed concerns about reception signposting. These patients were more likely to also express concerns about GP access in general. Both of these concerns were more common in deprived-urban areas than in remote/rural or affluent-urban areas. CONCLUSION: MDT-care has expanded in Scotland with limited patient awareness. Although patients understand its potential value, many patients are unhappy with reception signposting to first-contact MDT care, especially those in deprived-urban areas living with multimorbidity. This represents a barrier to the aims of the new GP contract.
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BACKGROUND: Robustly examining associations between long-term conditions may be important in identifying opportunities for intervention in multimorbidity but is challenging when evidence is limited. We have developed a Bayesian inference framework that is robust to sparse data and used it to quantify morbidity associations in the oldest old, a population with limited available data. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study of a representative dataset of primary care patients in Scotland as of March 2007. We included 40 long-term conditions and studied their associations in 12,009 individuals aged 90 and older, stratified by sex (3039 men, 8970 women). We analysed associations obtained with Relative Risk (RR), a standard measure in the literature, and compared them with our proposed measure, Associations Beyond Chance (ABC). To enable a broad exploration of interactions between long-term conditions, we built networks of association and assessed differences in their analysis when associations are estimated by RR or ABC. FINDINGS: Our Bayesian framework was appropriately more cautious in attributing association when evidence is lacking, particularly in uncommon conditions. This caution in reporting association was also present in reporting differences in associations between sex and affected the aggregated measures of multimorbidity and network representations. INTERPRETATION: Incorporating uncertainty into multimorbidity research is crucial to avoid misleading findings when evidence is limited, a problem that particularly affects small but important subgroups. Our proposed framework improves the reliability of estimations of associations and, more in general, of research into disease mechanisms and multimorbidity. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research.
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Multimorbidade , Masculino , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Humanos , Feminino , Teorema de Bayes , Estudos Transversais , Estudos Retrospectivos , Reprodutibilidade dos TestesRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on long-term care residents remains of wide interest, but most analyses focus on the initial wave of infections. OBJECTIVE: To examine change over time in: (i) The size, duration, classification and pattern of care-home outbreaks of COVID-19 and associated mortality and (ii) characteristics associated with an outbreak. DESIGN: Retrospective observational cohort study using routinely-collected data. SETTING: All adult care-homes in Scotland (1,092 homes, 41,299 places). METHODS: Analysis was undertaken at care-home level, over three periods. Period (P)1 01/03/2020-31/08/2020; P2 01/09/2020-31/05/2021 and P3 01/06/2021-31/10/2021. Outcomes were the presence and characteristics of outbreaks and mortality within the care-home. Cluster analysis was used to compare the pattern of outbreaks. Logistic regression examined care-home characteristics associated with outbreaks. RESULTS: In total 296 (27.1%) care-homes had one outbreak, 220 (20.1%) had two, 91 (8.3%) had three, and 68 (6.2%) had four or more. There were 1,313 outbreaks involving residents: 431 outbreaks in P1, 559 in P2 and 323 in P3. The COVID-19 mortality rate per 1,000 beds fell from 45.8 in P1, to 29.3 in P2, and 3.5 in P3. Larger care-homes were much more likely to have an outbreak, but associations between size and outbreaks were weaker in later periods. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 mitigation measures appear to have been beneficial, although the impact on residents remained severe until early 2021. Care-home residents, staff, relatives and providers are critical groups for consideration and involvement in future pandemic planning.
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COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/terapia , Casas de Saúde , Estudos Retrospectivos , Pandemias , Web Semântica , Estudos de CoortesRESUMO
Mortality prediction models support identifying older adults with short life expectancy for whom clinical care might need modifications. We systematically reviewed external validations of mortality prediction models in older adults (ie, aged 65 years and older) with up to 3 years of follow-up. In March, 2023, we conducted a literature search resulting in 36 studies reporting 74 validations of 64 unique models. Model applicability was fair but validation risk of bias was mostly high, with 50 (68%) of 74 validations not reporting calibration. Morbidities (most commonly cardiovascular diseases) were used as predictors by 45 (70%) of 64 of models. For 1-year prediction, 31 (67%) of 46 models had acceptable discrimination, but only one had excellent performance. Models with more than 20 predictors were more likely to have acceptable discrimination (risk ratio [RR] vs <10 predictors 1·68, 95% CI 1·06-2·66), as were models including sex (RR 1·75, 95% CI 1·12-2·73) or predicting risk during comprehensive geriatric assessment (RR 1·86, 95% CI 1·12-3·07). Development and validation of better-performing mortality prediction models in older people are needed.
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Mortalidade , Idoso , Humanos , Doenças Cardiovasculares , Prognóstico , Avaliação GeriátricaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Frailty is characterised by a reduced resilience to adversity. In this analysis we examined changes in frailty in people aged 50+ before and during a period of austere public spending in England. METHODS: Data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing 2002-2018 were analysed. Associations between austerity and frailty were examined using (1) Multilevel interrupted times series analysis (ITSA); and (2) Accelerated longitudinal modelling comparing frailty trajectories in people of the same age in 2002 and 2012. RESULTS: The analysis included 16,410 people (mean age 67 years, 55% women), with mean frailty index score of 0.16. Mean scores in women (0.16) where higher than in men (mean 0.14), and higher in the poorest tertile (mean 0.20) than the richest (mean 0.12). In the ITSA, frailty index scores increased more quickly during austerity than before, with the additional increase in frailty 2012-2018 being similar in magnitude to the difference in mean frailty score between people aged 65-69 and 70-74 years. Steeper increases in frailty after 2012 were experienced across the wealth-spectrum and in both sexes but were greater in the very oldest (80+). In the accelerated longitudinal analysis, frailty was lower in 2012 than 2002, but increased more rapidly in the 2012 cohort compared to the 2002 cohort; markedly so in people aged 80+. CONCLUSION: The period of austerity politics was associated with steeper increases in frailty with age compared to the pre-austerity period, consistent with previously observed increases in mortality.
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Fragilidade , Humanos , Idoso , Masculino , Feminino , Estudos Longitudinais , Idoso Fragilizado , Fatores de Tempo , EnvelhecimentoRESUMO
Background: Clinical guidelines commonly recommend preventative treatments for people above a risk threshold. Therefore, decision-makers must have faith in risk prediction tools and model-based cost-effectiveness analyses for people at different levels of risk. Two problems that arise are inadequate handling of competing risks of death and failing to account for direct treatment disutility (i.e. the hassle of taking treatments). We explored these issues using two case studies: primary prevention of cardiovascular disease using statins and osteoporotic fracture using bisphosphonates. Objectives: Externally validate three risk prediction tools [QRISK®3, QRISK®-Lifetime, QFracture-2012 (ClinRisk Ltd, Leeds, UK)]; derive and internally validate new risk prediction tools for cardiovascular disease [competing mortality risk model with Charlson Comorbidity Index (CRISK-CCI)] and fracture (CFracture), accounting for competing-cause death; quantify direct treatment disutility for statins and bisphosphonates; and examine the effect of competing risks and direct treatment disutility on the cost-effectiveness of preventative treatments. Design, participants, main outcome measures, data sources: Discrimination and calibration of risk prediction models (Clinical Practice Research Datalink participants: aged 25-84 years for cardiovascular disease and aged 30-99 years for fractures); direct treatment disutility was elicited in online stated-preference surveys (people with/people without experience of statins/bisphosphonates); costs and quality-adjusted life-years were determined from decision-analytic modelling (updated models used in National Institute for Health and Care Excellence decision-making). Results: CRISK-CCI has excellent discrimination, similar to that of QRISK3 (Harrell's c = 0.864 vs. 0.865, respectively, for women; and 0.819 vs. 0.834, respectively, for men). CRISK-CCI has systematically better calibration, although both models overpredict in high-risk subgroups. People recommended for treatment (10-year risk of ≥ 10%) are younger when using QRISK-Lifetime than when using QRISK3, and have fewer observed events in a 10-year follow-up (4.0% vs. 11.9%, respectively, for women; and 4.3% vs. 10.8%, respectively, for men). QFracture-2012 underpredicts fractures, owing to under-ascertainment of events in its derivation. However, there is major overprediction among people aged 85-99 years and/or with multiple long-term conditions. CFracture is better calibrated, although it also overpredicts among older people. In a time trade-off exercise (n = 879), statins exhibited direct treatment disutility of 0.034; for bisphosphonates, it was greater, at 0.067. Inconvenience also influenced preferences in best-worst scaling (n = 631). Updated cost-effectiveness analysis generates more quality-adjusted life-years among people with below-average cardiovascular risk and fewer among people with above-average risk. If people experience disutility when taking statins, the cardiovascular risk threshold at which benefits outweigh harms rises with age (≥ 8% 10-year risk at 40 years of age; ≥ 38% 10-year risk at 80 years of age). Assuming that everyone experiences population-average direct treatment disutility with oral bisphosphonates, treatment is net harmful at all levels of risk. Limitations: Treating data as missing at random is a strong assumption in risk prediction model derivation. Disentangling the effect of statins from secular trends in cardiovascular disease in the previous two decades is challenging. Validating lifetime risk prediction is impossible without using very historical data. Respondents to our stated-preference survey may not be representative of the population. There is no consensus on which direct treatment disutilities should be used for cost-effectiveness analyses. Not all the inputs to the cost-effectiveness models could be updated. Conclusions: Ignoring competing mortality in risk prediction overestimates the risk of cardiovascular events and fracture, especially among older people and those with multimorbidity. Adjustment for competing risk does not meaningfully alter cost-effectiveness of these preventative interventions, but direct treatment disutility is measurable and has the potential to alter the balance of benefits and harms. We argue that this is best addressed in individual-level shared decision-making. Study registration: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42021249959. Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme (NIHR award ref: 15/12/22) and is published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 12, No. 4. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.
Before offering a medicine to prevent disease, prescribers must expect it to do more good than harm. This balance depends on how likely it is that the person will develop the disease we want to prevent. But people might first die for other reasons. We call this a 'competing risk'. In most cases, the mathematical tools we use to estimate the chance of developing a disease do not account for competing risks. Another problem is that, when weighing up the benefits and harms of medicines, we ignore the hassle they cause patients, even when they do not cause side effects. We used two examples: statins to prevent heart disease and bisphosphonates to prevent fractures. First, we assessed if existing tools get predictions wrong by not accounting for competing risks. We found that they exaggerate the chance of heart attacks and strokes. However, the exaggeration is greatest among people who would clearly benefit from preventative treatment. So it may not change treatment decisions much. The fracture prediction tool we studied was very inaccurate, exaggerating risk among older people, but underestimating risk among younger people. We made a new fracture risk prediction tool. It gave better predictions, but it was still inaccurate for people aged > 85 years and those with several health problems. Next, we asked people questions designed to put a number on the hassle that statins and bisphosphonates cause. Most people thought that taking either is inconvenient, but the hassle factor for bisphosphonates is bigger. Finally, we updated the mathematical models that the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence used when recommending statins and bisphosphonates. We worked out if competing risks and the hassle of taking medicines make a difference to results. Statins remain a good idea for almost everyone, unless they really hate the idea of taking them. But bisphosphonates would do more harm than good for anyone who agrees with the hassle factor we found.
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Doenças Cardiovasculares , Inibidores de Hidroximetilglutaril-CoA Redutases , Fraturas por Osteoporose , Masculino , Humanos , Feminino , Idoso , Fraturas por Osteoporose/epidemiologia , Análise de Custo-Efetividade , Doenças Cardiovasculares/tratamento farmacológico , Inibidores de Hidroximetilglutaril-CoA Redutases/uso terapêutico , Difosfonatos/uso terapêuticoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The new Scottish GP contract introduced in April 2018 aims to improve quality of care through expansion of the multidisciplinary team (MDT) to enable GPs to spend more time as expert medical generalists with patients with complex needs. AIM: To explore patients' views on the changes in general practice in Scotland since the inception of the new contract. DESIGN AND SETTING: Qualitative study with 30 patients (10 living in urban deprived areas, 10 living in urban affluent/mixed urban areas, and 10 living in remote and rural areas). METHOD: In-depth semi-structured interviews with thematic analysis. RESULTS: Patients were generally unaware of the new GP contract, attributing recent changes in general practice to the COVID-19 pandemic. Ongoing concerns included access to GP consultations (especially face-to-face ones), short consultation length with GPs, and damage to continuity of care and the GP-patient relationship. Most patients spoke positively about consultations with MDT staff but still wanted to see a known GP for health concerns that they considered potentially serious. These issues were especially concerning for patients with multiple complex problems, particularly those from deprived areas. CONCLUSION: Following the introduction of the new Scottish GP contract, patients in this study's sample were accepting of first contact care from the MDT but still wanted continuity of care and longer face-to-face consultations with GPs. These findings suggest that the expert generalist role of the GP is not being adequately supported by the new contract, especially in deprived areas, though further quantitative research is required to confirm this.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Multiple short delirium detection tools have been validated in research studies and implemented in routine care, but there has been little study of these tools in real-world conditions. This systematic review synthesized literature reporting completion rates and/or delirium positive score rates of detection tools in large clinical populations in general hospital settings. METHODS: PROSPERO (CRD42022385166). Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL, and gray literature were searched from 1980 to December 31, 2022. Included studies or audit reports used a validated delirium detection tool performed directly with the patient as part of routine care in large clinical populations (n ≥ 1000) within a general acute hospital setting. Narrative synthesis was performed. RESULTS: Twenty-two research studies and four audit reports were included. Tools used alone or in combination were the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM), 4 'A's Test (4AT), Delirium Observation Screening Scale (DOSS), Brief CAM (bCAM), Nursing Delirium Screening Scale (NuDESC), and Intensive Care Delirium Screening Checklist (ICDSC). Populations and settings varied and tools were used at different stages and frequencies in the patient journey, including on admission only; inpatient, daily or more frequently; on admission and as inpatient; inpatient post-operatively. Tool completion rates ranged from 19% to 100%. Admission positive score rates ranged from: CAM 8%-51%; 4AT 13%-20%. Inpatient positive score rates ranged from: CAM 2%-20%, DOSS 6%-42%, and NuDESC 5-13%. Postoperative positive score rates were 21% and 28% (4AT). All but two studies had moderate-high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review of delirium detection tool implementation in large acute patient populations found clinically important variability in tool completion rates, and in delirium positive score rates relative to expected delirium prevalence. This study highlights a need for greater reporting and analysis of relevant healthcare systems data. This is vital to advance understanding of effective delirium detection in routine care.
Assuntos
Delírio , Hospitais Gerais , Humanos , Lista de Checagem , Delírio/diagnóstico , Programas de Rastreamento/métodosRESUMO
PURPOSE: Evaluating interventions for cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires estimates of its effect on utility. We aimed to 1) systematically review utility estimates for CVDs published since 2013 and 2) critically appraise UK-relevant estimates and calculate corresponding baseline utility multipliers. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE and Embase (April 22, 2021) using CVD and utility terms. We screened results for primary studies reporting utility distributions for people with experience of heart failure, myocardial infarction, peripheral arterial disease, stable angina, stroke, transient ischemic attack, or unstable angina. We extracted characteristics from studies included. For UK estimates based on the EuroQoL 5-dimension (EQ-5D) measure, we assessed risk of bias and applicability to a decision-analytic model, pooled arms/time points as appropriate, and estimated baseline utility multipliers using predicted utility for age- and sex- matched populations without CVD. We sought utility sources from directly applicable studies with low risk of bias, prioritizing plausibility of severity ordering in our base-case model and highest population ascertainment in a sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Most of the 403 studies identified used EQ-5D (n = 217) and most assessed Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development populations (n = 262), although measures and countries varied widely. UK studies using EQ-5D (n = 29) produced very heterogeneous baseline utility multipliers for each type of CVD, precluding meta-analysis and implying different possible severity orderings. We could find sources that provided a plausible ordering of utilities while adequately representing health states. CONCLUSIONS: We cataloged international CVD utility estimates and calculated UK-relevant baseline utility multipliers. Modelers should consider unreported sources of heterogeneity, such as population differences, when selecting utility evidence from reviews. HIGHLIGHTS: Published systematic reviews have summarized estimates of utility associated with cardiovascular disease published up to 2013.We 1) reviewed utility estimates for 7 types of cardiovascular disease published since 2013, 2) critically appraised UK-relevant studies, and 3) estimated the effect of each cardiovascular disease on baseline utility.Our review 1) recommends a consistent and reliable set of baseline utility multipliers for 7 types of cardiovascular disease and 2) provides systematically identified reference information for researchers seeking utility evidence for their own context.
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Doenças Cardiovasculares , Técnicas de Apoio para a Decisão , Humanos , Reino Unido , Qualidade de Vida , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de VidaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Multiple long-term conditions (MLTC), also known as multimorbidity, has been identified as a priority research topic globally. Research priorities from the perspectives of patients and research funders have been described. Although most care for MLTC is delivered in primary care, the priorities of academic primary care have not been identified. AIM: To identify and prioritise the academic primary care research agenda for MLTC. DESIGN AND SETTING: This was a three-phase study with primary care MLTC researchers from the UK and other high-income countries. METHOD: The study consisted of: an open-ended survey question, a face-to-face workshop to elaborate questions with researchers from the UK and Ireland, and a two-round Delphi consensus survey with international multimorbidity researchers. RESULTS: Twenty-five primary care researchers responded to the initial open-ended survey and generated 84 potential research questions. In the subsequent workshop discussion (n = 18 participants), this list was reduced to 31 questions. The longlist of 31 research questions was included in round 1 of the Delphi; 27 of the 50 (54%) round 1 invitees and 24 of the 27 (89%) round 2 invitees took part in the Delphi. Ten questions reached final consensus. These questions focused broadly on addressing the complexity of the patient group with development of new models of care for multimorbidity, and methods and data development. CONCLUSION: These high-priority research questions offer funders and researchers a basis on which to build future grant calls and research plans. Addressing complexity in this research is needed to inform improvements in systems of care and for disease prevention.
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Atenção à Saúde , Projetos de Pesquisa , Humanos , Técnica Delphi , Consenso , Atenção Primária à SaúdeRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The new Scottish GP contract commenced in April 2018 with a stated aim of mitigating health inequalities. AIM: To determine the health characteristics and experiences of patients consulting GPs in deprived urban (DU), affluent urban (AU), and remote and rural (RR) areas of Scotland. DESIGN AND SETTING: In 2022, a postal survey of a random sample of adult patients from 12 practices who had consulted a GP within the previous 30 days was undertaken. METHOD: Patient characteristics and consultation experiences in the three areas (DU, AU, RR) were evaluated using validated measures including the Consultation and Relational Empathy (CARE) Measure and Patient Enablement Instrument (PEI). RESULTS: In total, 1053 responses were received. In DU areas, multimorbidity was more common (78% versus 58% AU versus 68% RR, P<0.01), complex presentations (where the consultation addressed both psychosocial and physical problems) were more likely (16% versus 10% AU versus 11% RR, P<0.05), and more consultations were conducted by telephone (42% versus 31% AU versus 31% RR, P<0.01). Patients in DU areas reported lower satisfaction (82% DU completely, very, or fairly satisfied versus 90% AU versus 86% RR, P<0.01), lower perceived GP empathy (mean CARE score 38.9 versus 42.1 AU versus 40.1 RR, P<0.05), lower enablement (mean PEI score 2.6 versus 3.2 AU versus 2.8 RR, P<0.01), and less symptom improvement (P<0.01) than those in AU or RR areas. Face-to-face consultations were associated with significantly higher satisfaction, enablement, and perceived GP empathy than telephone consultations in RR areas (all P<0.05). CONCLUSION: Four years after the start of the new GP contract in Scotland, patients' experiences of GP consultations suggest that the inverse care law persists.