Long term monitoring of jaguars in the Cockscomb Basin Wildlife Sanctuary, Belize; Implications for camera trap studies of carnivores.

In this study, we estimate life history parameters and abundance for a protected jaguar population using camera-trap data from a 14-year monitoring program (2002-2015) in Belize, Central America. We investigated the dynamics of this jaguar population using 3,075 detection events of 105 individual adult jaguars. Using robust design open population models, we estimated apparent survival and temporary emigration and investigated individual heterogeneity in detection rates across years. Survival probability was high and constant among the years for both sexes (φ = 0.78), and the maximum (conservative) age recorded was 14 years. Temporary emigration rate for the population was random, but constant through time at 0.20 per year. Detection probability varied between sexes, and among years and individuals. Heterogeneity in detection took the form of a dichotomy for males: those with consistently high detection rates, and those with low, sporadic detection rates, suggesting a relatively stable population of 'residents' consistently present and a fluctuating layer of 'transients'. Female detection was always low and sporadic. On average, twice as many males than females were detected per survey, and individual detection rates were significantly higher for males. We attribute sex-based differences in detection to biases resulting from social variation in trail-walking behaviour. The number of individual females detected increased when the survey period was extended from 3 months to a full year. Due to the low detection rates of females and the variable 'transient' male subpopulation, annual abundance estimates based on 3-month surveys had low precision. To estimate survival and monitor population changes in elusive, wide-ranging, low-density species, we recommend repeated surveys over multiple years; and suggest that continuous monitoring over multiple years yields even further insight into population dynamics of elusive predator populations.

Jaguar interactions with pumas and prey at the northern edge of jaguars' range.

We present the first study that evaluates jaguar-puma interactions in the arid lands of northern Mexico, where jaguars have their northernmost breeding population and both predators are persecuted for livestock depredation. We tested whether jaguars are the dominant species in this unique ecosystem, where: (1) pumas outnumber jaguars, (2) pumas are better adapted to arid environments, and (3) jaguars and pumas are of similar size. We analyzed four years of data with two approaches; a two species conditional occupancy model and an activity patterns analysis. We used camera location and prey presence as covariates for jaguar and puma detection and presence probabilities. We also explored overlap in activities of predators and prey. Where both species were detected, peccary presence was positively correlated with both jaguar and puma presence, whereas in areas where jaguars were detected but pumas were not, deer presence explained the probability of jaguar presence. We found that both predators were more likely to co-occur together than to be found independently, and so we rejected the hypothesis that jaguars were the dominant species in our study area. Predators were mainly nocturnal and their activity patterns overlapped by 60%. Jaguar, as compared with puma, overlapped more with deer and calves; puma overlapped with calves more than with other prey, suggesting a preference. We believe exploring predator relationships at different scales may help elucidate mechanisms that regulate their coexistence.

Are Private Reserves Effective for Jaguar Conservation?

We present the first study of density and apparent survival for a jaguar (Panthera onca) population in northern Mexico using 13 years of camera trap data from 2000 to 2012. We used the Barker robust design model which combines data from closed sampling periods and resight data between these periods to estimate apparent survival and abundance. We identified 467 jaguar pictures that corresponded to 48 jaguar individuals. We included camera type and field technician as covariates for detection probabilities. We used three covariates to evaluate the effect of reserve on jaguar apparent survival: i) private reserve creation ii) later reserve expansions, and iii) cattle ranches' conservation activities. We found that the use of digital cameras in addition to film cameras increased detection probability by a factor of 6x compared with the use of only film cameras (p = 0.34 ± 0.05 and p = 0.05 ± 0.02 respectively) in the closed period and more than three times in the open period (R = 0.91 ± 0.08 and R = 0.30 ± 0.13 mixed and film cameras respectively). Our availability estimates showed no temporary emigration and a fidelity probability of 1. Despite an increase of apparent survival probability from 0.47 ± 0.15 to 0.56 ± 0.11 after 2007, no single covariate explained the change in these point estimates. Mean jaguar density was 1.87 ± 0.47 jaguars/100 km2. We found that 13 years of jaguar population monitoring with our sampling size were not enough for detecting changes in survival or density. Our results provide a baseline for studies evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas and the inclusion of ranch owners in jaguar conservation programs and long-term population viability.