The Influence of Kin Proximity on the Reproductive Success of American Couples, 1900-1910.

Children require a large amount of time, effort, and resources to raise. Physical help, financial contributions, medical care, and other types of assistance from kin and social network members allow couples to space births closer together while maintaining or increasing child survival. We examine the impact of kin availability on couples' reproductive success in the early twentieth-century United States with a panel data set of over 3.1 million couples linked between the 1900 and 1910 U.S. censuses. Our results indicate that kin proximity outside the household was positively associated with fertility, child survival, and net reproduction, and suggest that declining kin availability was an important contributing factor to the fertility transition in the United States. We also find important differences between maternal and paternal kin inside the household-including higher fertility among women residing with their mother-in-law than among those residing with their mother-that support hypotheses related to the contrasting motivations and concerns of parents and parents-in-law.

Early Fertility Decline in the United States: Tests of Alternative Hypotheses using New IPUMS Complete-Count Census Microdata and Enhanced County-Level Data.

The U. S. fertility transition in the nineteenth century is unusual. Not only did it start from a very high fertility level and very early in the nation's development, but it also took place long before the nation's mortality transition, industrialization, and urbanization. This paper assembles new county-level, household-level, and individual-level data, including new complete-count IPUMS microdata databases of the 1830-1880 censuses, to evaluate different theories for the nineteenth-century American fertility transition. We construct cross-sectional models of net fertility for currently-married white couples in census years 1830-1880 and test the results with a subset of couples linked between the 1850-1860, 1860-1870, and 1870-1880 censuses. We find evidence of marital fertility control consistent with hypotheses as early as 1830. The results indicate support for several different but complementary theories of the early U.S. fertility decline, including the land availability, conventional structuralist, ideational, child demand/quality-quantity tradeoff, and life-cycle savings theories.

From '20. and odd' to 10 million: The growth of the slave population in the United States.

This research note describes the growth of the slave population in the United States and develops several new measures of its size and growth, including an estimate of the total number of slaves who ever lived in the United States. Estimates of the number of births and slave imports are provided in ten-year increments between 1619 and 1860 and in one-year increments between 1861 and 1865. The results highlight the importance of natural increase to the rapid growth of the U.S. slave population and indicate that approximately 10 million slaves lived in the United States, where they contributed 410 billion hours of labor. A concluding discussion highlights a few descriptive statistics historians might find useful, including the cumulative number of slaves who lived in the United States by decade and the proportion of slaves who were living at various moments in U.S. history, including shortly after the ratification of the Constitution in 1788 and at the start of the American Civil War in 1861.

Immigration and Child Mortality: Lessons from the United States at the turn of the Twentieth Century.

The societal integration of immigrants is a great concern in many of today's Western societies, and has been so for a long time. Whether we look at Europe in 2015 or the United States at the turn of the twentieth century, large flows of immigrants pose challenges to receiving societies. While much research has focused on the socioeconomic integration of immigrants there has been less interest in their demographic integration, even though this can tell us as much about the way immigrants fare in their new home country. In this paper we study the disparities in infant and child mortality across nativity groups and generations, using new, high-density census data. In addition to describing differentials and trends in child mortality among 14 immigrant groups relative to the native-born white population of native parentage, we focus special attention on the association between child mortality, immigrant assimilation, and the community-level context of where immigrants lived. Our findings indicate substantial nativity differences in child mortality, but also that factors related to the societal integration of immigrants explains a substantial part of these differentials. Our results also point to the importance of spatial patterns and contextual variables in understanding nativity differentials in child mortality.

Reconstruction of Birth Histories for the Study of Fertility in the United States, 1830-1910.

This paper describes a method to reconstruct complete birth histories for women in the 1900 and 1910 U. S. census IPUMS samples. The method is an extension of an earlier method developed by Luther and Cho (1988). The basic method relies on the number of children ever born, number of children surviving, number of children coresident in the household and age-specific fertility rates for the population to probabilistically assign an "age" to deceased and unmatched children. Modifications include the addition of an iterative Poisson regression model to fine-tune age-specific fertility inputs. The potential of complete birth histories for the study of the U.S. fertility transition is illustrated with a few examples.

Patients with laboratory evidence of West Nile virus disease without reported fever.

In 2013, the national surveillance case definition for West Nile virus (WNV) disease was revised to remove fever as a criterion for neuroinvasive disease and require at most subjective fever for non-neuroinvasive disease. The aims of this project were to determine how often afebrile WNV disease occurs and assess differences among patients with and without fever. We included cases with laboratory evidence of WNV disease reported from four states in 2014. We compared demographics, clinical symptoms and laboratory evidence for patients with and without fever and stratified the analysis by neuroinvasive and non-neuroinvasive presentations. Among 956 included patients, 39 (4%) had no fever; this proportion was similar among patients with and without neuroinvasive disease symptoms. For neuroinvasive and non-neuroinvasive patients, there were no differences in age, sex, or laboratory evidence between febrile and afebrile patients, but hospitalisations were more common among patients with fever (P < 0.01). The only significant difference in symptoms was for ataxia, which was more common in neuroinvasive patients without fever (P = 0.04). Only 5% of non-neuroinvasive patients did not meet the WNV case definition due to lack of fever. The evidence presented here supports the changes made to the national case definition in 2013.

Fertility decline in the United States, 1850-1930: New Evidence from Complete-Count Datasets.

Between 1835 and 1935, total fertility in the United States fell from 7.0 to 2.1. New IPUMS complete-count microdata databases of the 1850, 1880, 1910, and 1930 U. S. censuses allow us to study the fertility decline in more detail than previously possible. We construct comprehensive models of couples' fertility incorporating a wide variety of economic, social, cultural and familial factors, including measures of parental religiosity and kin availability outside of the household. The results indicate that while shifts in the occupational structure and increasing urbanization of the population provide the most consistent and substantive contribution to fertility decline over the period, cultural and religious attitudes - as proxied by parents' nativities and child naming practices - played a major role in couples' childbearing decisions.

Becoming American: Intermarriage during the Great Migration to the United States.

Although intermarriage is a common indicator of immigrant integration into host societies, most research has focused on how individual characteristics determine intermarriage. This study uses the 1910 IPUMS census sample to analyze how contextual factors affected intermarriage among European immigrants in the United States. Newly available, complete-count census microdata permits the construction of contextual measures at a much lower level of aggregation-the county-in this analysis than in previous studies. Our results confirm most findings in previous research relating to individual-level variables but also find important associations between contextual factors and marital outcomes. The relative size and sex ratio of an origin group, ethnic diversity, the share of the native-born white population, and the proportion of life that immigrants spent in the United State are all associated with exogamy. These patterns are highly similar across genders and immigrant generations.

The impact of kin availability, parental religiosity, and nativity on fertility differentials in the late 19th-century United States.

METHODS: Most quantitative research on fertility decline in the United States ignores the potential impact of cultural and familial factors. We rely on new complete-count data from the 1880 U.S. census to construct couple-level measures of nativity/ethnicity, religiosity, and kin availability. We include these measures with a comprehensive set of demographic, economic, and contextual variables in Poisson regression models of net marital fertility to assess their relative importance. We construct models with and without area fixed effects to control for unobserved heterogeneity. CONTRIBUTION: All else being equal, we find a strong impact of nativity on recent net marital fertility. Fertility differentials among second generation couples relative to the native-born white population of native parentage were in most cases less than half of the differential observed among first generation immigrants, suggesting greater assimilation to native-born American childbearing norms. Our measures of parental religiosity and familial propinquity indicated a more modest impact on marital fertility. Couples who chose biblical names for their children had approximately 3% more children than couples relying on secular names while the presence of a potential mother-in-law in a nearby households was associated with 2% more children. Overall, our results demonstrate the need for more inclusive models of fertility behavior that include cultural and familial covariates.

Ready, Willing, and Able? Impediments to the Onset of Marital Fertility Decline in the United States.

This study relies on IPUMS samples of the 1850, 1860, 1870, and 1880 censuses, aggregate census data, and the timing of state laws criminalizing abortion to construct regional estimates of marital fertility in the United States and estimate correlates of marital fertility. The results show a significant lag between the onset of marital fertility decline in the nation's northeastern census divisions and its onset in western and southern census divisions. Empirical models indicate the presence of cultural, economic, and legal impediments to the diffusion of marital fertility control and illustrate the need for more inclusive models of fertility decline.

The impact of socio-economic status on net fertility during the historical fertility decline: a comparative analysis of Canada, Iceland, Sweden, Norway, and the USA.

We used micro-level data from the censuses of 1900 to investigate the impact of socio-economic status on net fertility during the fertility transition in five Northern American and European countries (Canada, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the USA). The study is therefore unlike most previous research on the historical fertility transition, which used aggregate data to examine economic correlates of demographic behaviour at regional or national levels. Our data included information on number of children by age, occupation of the mother and father, place of residence, and household context. The results show highly similar patterns across countries, with the elite and upper middle classes having considerably lower net fertility early in the transition. These patterns remain after controlling for a range of individual and community-level fertility determinants and geographical unobserved heterogeneity.

Intergenerational transmission of reproductive behavior during the demographic transition.

New evidence from the Utah Population Database (UPDP) reveals that at the onset of the fertility transition, reproductive behavior was transmitted across generations - between women and their mothers, as well as between women and their husbands' family of origin. Age at marriage, age at last birth, and the number of children ever born are positively correlated in the data, most strongly among first-born daughters and among cohorts born later in the fertility transition. Intergenerational ties, including the presence of mothers and mothers-in-law, influenced the hazard of progressing to a next birth. The findings suggest that the practice of parity-dependent marital fertility control and inter-birth spacing behavior derived, in part, from the previous generation and that the potential for mothers and mothers-in-law to help in the rearing of children encouraged higher marital fertility.

Decennial Life Tables for the White Population of the United States, 1790-1900.

This article constructs new life tables for the white population of the United States in each decade between 1790 and 1900. Drawing from several recent studies, it suggests best estimates of life expectancy at age 20 for each decade. These estimates are fitted to new standards derived from the 1900-02 rural and 1900-02 overall DRA life tables using a two-parameter logit model with fixed slope. The resulting decennial life tables more accurately represent sex-and age-specific mortality rates while capturing known mortality trends.

Genome dynamics and its impact on evolution of Escherichia coli.

The Escherichia coli genome consists of a conserved part, the so-called core genome, which encodes essential cellular functions and of a flexible, strain-specific part. Genes that belong to the flexible genome code for factors involved in bacterial fitness and adaptation to different environments. Adaptation includes increase in fitness and colonization capacity. Pathogenic as well as non-pathogenic bacteria carry mobile and accessory genetic elements such as plasmids, bacteriophages, genomic islands and others, which code for functions required for proper adaptation. Escherichia coli is a very good example to study the interdependency of genome architecture and lifestyle of bacteria. Thus, these species include pathogenic variants as well as commensal bacteria adapted to different host organisms. In Escherichia coli, various genetic elements encode for pathogenicity factors as well as factors, which increase the fitness of non-pathogenic bacteria. The processes of genome dynamics, such as gene transfer, genome reduction, rearrangements as well as point mutations contribute to the adaptation of the bacteria into particular environments. Using Escherichia coli model organisms, such as uropathogenic strain 536 or commensal strain Nissle 1917, we studied mechanisms of genome dynamics and discuss these processes in the light of the evolution of microbes.

[Health economic impact of heart failure: An analysis of the nationwide German database]. / Gesundheitsökonomische Bedeutung der Herzinsuffizienz: Analyse bundesweiter Daten.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with congestive heart failure represent a significant amount of the total annual cost of the health care system. Because of a lack of studies on the economic health cost of the related health care, including all cost generating factors, we analysed in detail characteristics of these patients and the costs created by their care. METHOD: Data were retrieved from the German Bureau of Health Statistics for the year 2002 relating to congestive heart failure (Code I50) including other factors (e. g. co-morbidities, ambulatory and hospital care and choice of the doctor). The data were from more than 2 million patients, from 350 insurance companies, the Federal Employees Insurance and the German Institute for Medical Informatics and Documentation. A total of 86 193 patients with congestive heart failure had been recorded. RESULTS: More women than men were recorded as having congestive heart failure (66 vs. 34 %). The various health insurance companies paid 2.3 times more for patients with than without congestive heart failure. Nearly three quarters of the cost for these patients (72 %) resulted from in-patient care. Moreover, costs for drugs were three times higher (1073 Euro vs. 366 Euro). CONCLUSIONS: This analysis clearly demonstrates the increased costs incurred for patients with congestive heart failure. It should serve as a reference base for better assessing future innovations, such as telemedicine, for their effects in different sectors of health care.

Adaptation of Pathogenic E. coli to Various Niches: Genome Flexibility is the Key.

It is a well-known observation and a long-standing hypothesis that pathogen genome dynamics are important in infectious disease processes. Recent achievements in large-scale genome sequencing, comparative genomics and molecular epidemiology help to unravel current challenges of E. coli pathogenomics, i.e. to gain insights into the in vivo relevance of genome dynamics. Data from comparative genomics support the hypothesis of widespread involvement of horizontal gene transfer in the evolution of E. coli, leading to the presence of distinct and variable 'genomic islands' within the conserved 'chromosomal backbone' in several bacterial lineages. Extensive gene acquisition and loss provide different lineages with distinct metabolic, pathogenic and other capabilities. Not only mobile genetic modules but also point mutations facilitate rapid adaptation of E. coli to changing environmental conditions and hence extend the spectrum of sites that can be infected. We report on recent research efforts to analyze pathoadaptive and other genomic alterations of the E. coli genome that affect disease severity and may have consequences for diagnostics and treatment of E. coli infections.

[Climate changes and emerging diseases. What new infectious diseases and health problem can be expected?]. / Die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels. Welche neuen Infektionskrankheiten und gesundheitlichen Probleme sind zu erwarten?

Increasing temperatures, but also other climatic factors, will have an impact on human health. Apart from the direct consequences of extreme weather conditions (e.g., heat-related fatalities), indirect health consequences in the long-term are also of great importance. In addition to a likely increase in allergic diseases and additional complications in the course of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, infectious diseases are of particular interest. In Germany, endemic pathogens, such as hantavirus (with its reservoir in small rodents), tick-borne pathogens (Borrelia burgdorferi, tick-borne encephalitis virus), and certain food- and water-borne pathogens, are of concern. Mild winters favor rodent populations and may result in hantavirus epidemics in the subsequent summer period. Statistical analyses show a significant association between temperature and campylobacter incidence in Germany. An outbreak of rodent-borne leptospirosis among strawberry harvesters enhanced by heavy rainfalls illustrates how weather conditions may influence disease occurrence. Pathogens that are non-endemic in Germany but are imported by humans, vectors, and reservoir animals pose an additional risk to the population. Increasing temperatures improve the conditions for establishment of new vectors and for autochthonous transmission of some pathogens (e.g., chikungunya, dengue, West Nile virus, malaria, or leishmaniasis). Climatic and ecologic conditions in Germany currently do not favor autochthonous outbreaks for most of these pathogens. However, if temperatures increase, as expected, such outbreaks will become more likely. Germany should enhance its research in public health activities in the field of climate change and infectious diseases.