RESUMO
To date nearly all clinical trials of Alzheimer's disease (AD) therapies have failed. These failures are, at least in part, attributable to poor endpoint choice and to inadequate recruitment criteria. Recently, focus has shifted to targeting at-risk populations in the preclinical stages of AD thus improved predictive markers for identifying individuals likely to progress to AD are crucial to help inform the sample of individuals to be recruited into clinical trials. We focus on hippocampal volume (HV) and assess the added benefit of combining HV and rate of hippocampal atrophy over time in relation to disease progression. Following the cross-validation of previously published estimates of the predictive value of HV, we consider a series of combinations of HV metrics and show that a combination of HV and rate of hippocampal atrophy characterises disease progression better than either measure individually. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the risk of disease progression associated with HV metrics does not differ significantly between clinical states. HV and rate of hippocampal atrophy should therefore be used in tandem when describing AD progression in at-risk individuals. Analyses also suggest that the effects of HV metrics are constant across the continuum of the early stages of the disease.