Dynamically Polarizable Force Fields for Surface Simulations via Multi-output Classification Neural Networks.

We present a general procedure to introduce electronic polarization into classical Molecular Dynamics (MD) force fields using a Neural Network (NN) model. We apply this framework to the simulation of a solid-liquid interface where the polarization of the surface is essential to correctly capture the main features of the system. By introducing a multi-input, multi-output NN and treating the surface polarization as a discrete classification problem, we are able to obtain very good accuracy in terms of quality of predictions. Through the definition of a custom loss function we are able to impose a physically motivated constraint within the NN itself making this model extremely versatile, especially in the modeling of different surface charge states. The NN is validated considering the redistribution of electronic charge density within a graphene based electrode in contact with an aqueous electrolyte solution, a system highly relevant to the development of next generation low-cost supercapacitors. We compare the performances of our NN/MD model against Quantum Mechanics/Molecular Dynamics simulations where we obtain a most satisfactory agreement.

Data-driven prediction and origin identification of epidemics in population networks.

Effective intervention strategies for epidemics rely on the identification of their origin and on the robustness of the predictions made by network disease models. We introduce a Bayesian uncertainty quantification framework to infer model parameters for a disease spreading on a network of communities from limited, noisy observations; the state-of-the-art computational framework compensates for the model complexity by exploiting massively parallel computing architectures. Using noisy, synthetic data, we show the potential of the approach to perform robust model fitting and additionally demonstrate that we can effectively identify the disease origin via Bayesian model selection. As disease-related data are increasingly available, the proposed framework has broad practical relevance for the prediction and management of epidemics.

Explainable AI reveals changes in skin microbiome composition linked to phenotypic differences.

Alterations in the human microbiome have been observed in a variety of conditions such as asthma, gingivitis, dermatitis and cancer, and much remains to be learned about the links between the microbiome and human health. The fusion of artificial intelligence with rich microbiome datasets can offer an improved understanding of the microbiome's role in human health. To gain actionable insights it is essential to consider both the predictive power and the transparency of the models by providing explanations for the predictions. We combine the collection of leg skin microbiome samples from two healthy cohorts of women with the application of an explainable artificial intelligence (EAI) approach that provides accurate predictions of phenotypes with explanations. The explanations are expressed in terms of variations in the relative abundance of key microbes that drive the predictions. We predict skin hydration, subject's age, pre/post-menopausal status and smoking status from the leg skin microbiome. The changes in microbial composition linked to skin hydration can accelerate the development of personalized treatments for healthy skin, while those associated with age may offer insights into the skin aging process. The leg microbiome signatures associated with smoking and menopausal status are consistent with previous findings from oral/respiratory tract microbiomes and vaginal/gut microbiomes respectively. This suggests that easily accessible microbiome samples could be used to investigate health-related phenotypes, offering potential for non-invasive diagnosis and condition monitoring. Our EAI approach sets the stage for new work focused on understanding the complex relationships between microbial communities and phenotypes. Our approach can be applied to predict any condition from microbiome samples and has the potential to accelerate the development of microbiome-based personalized therapeutics and non-invasive diagnostics.

Personalized Radiotherapy Design for Glioblastoma: Integrating Mathematical Tumor Models, Multimodal Scans, and Bayesian Inference.

Glioblastoma (GBM) is a highly invasive brain tumor, whose cells infiltrate surrounding normal brain tissue beyond the lesion outlines visible in the current medical scans. These infiltrative cells are treated mainly by radiotherapy. Existing radiotherapy plans for brain tumors derive from population studies and scarcely account for patient-specific conditions. Here, we provide a Bayesian machine learning framework for the rational design of improved, personalized radiotherapy plans using mathematical modeling and patient multimodal medical scans. Our method, for the first time, integrates complementary information from high-resolution MRI scans and highly specific FET-PET metabolic maps to infer tumor cell density in GBM patients. The Bayesian framework quantifies imaging and modeling uncertainties and predicts patient-specific tumor cell density with credible intervals. The proposed methodology relies only on data acquired at a single time point and, thus, is applicable to standard clinical settings. An initial clinical population study shows that the radiotherapy plans generated from the inferred tumor cell infiltration maps spare more healthy tissue thereby reducing radiation toxicity while yielding comparable accuracy with standard radiotherapy protocols. Moreover, the inferred regions of high tumor cell densities coincide with the tumor radioresistant areas, providing guidance for personalized dose-escalation. The proposed integration of multimodal scans and mathematical modeling provides a robust, non-invasive tool to assist personalized radiotherapy design.

Data driven inference for the repulsive exponent of the Lennard-Jones potential in molecular dynamics simulations.

The Lennard-Jones (LJ) potential is a cornerstone of Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations and among the most widely used computational kernels in science. The LJ potential models atomistic attraction and repulsion with century old prescribed parameters (q = 6, p = 12, respectively), originally related by a factor of two for simplicity of calculations. We propose the inference of the repulsion exponent through Hierarchical Bayesian uncertainty quantification We use experimental data of the radial distribution function and dimer interaction energies from quantum mechanics simulations. We find that the repulsion exponent p ≈ 6.5 provides an excellent fit for the experimental data of liquid argon, for a range of thermodynamic conditions, as well as for saturated argon vapour. Calibration using the quantum simulation data did not provide a good fit in these cases. However, values p ≈ 12.7 obtained by dimer quantum simulations are preferred for the argon gas while lower values are promoted by experimental data. These results show that the proposed LJ 6-p potential applies to a wider range of thermodynamic conditions, than the classical LJ 6-12 potential. We suggest that calibration of the repulsive exponent in the LJ potential widens the range of applicability and accuracy of MD simulations.