Projected development in Borneo and Sumatra will greatly reduce connectivity for an apex carnivore.

The islands of Borneo and Sumatra are strongholds for biodiversity and home for many endemic species. They also have experienced amongst the highest deforestation rates globally. Both islands are undergoing massive, rapid infrastructure development, leading to further deforestation and habitat fragmentation. Here, we identify priority areas for continued functional forest connectivity across Borneo and Sumatra, using spatial models of clouded leopard (Neofelis diardi, a forest indicator species) movement, and impacts thereto from existing and future infrastructure development. We specifically measure and map the anticipated impacts on forest functional connectivity of three major infrastructure development projects (Pan Borneo Highway, Trans-Sumatran Toll Road, and the new Indonesian capital city of Nusantara). We found that core clouded leopard habitats are already highly fragmented in Sumatra, constituting only ∼13 % of the island, with potential dispersal corridors still linking some habitat fragments. In Borneo, clouded leopard core habitats cover 34 % of the island, with one large central core area and several much smaller satellite cores, which are largely unprotected (15 % protected, compared to 42 % in Sumatra). The largest negative effect on habitat connectivity was predicted for Nusantara (66 % of the total connectivity loss predicted for all three infrastructure projects), reverberating across the entirety of Borneo with the strongest effects in East Kalimantan. The Pan Borneo Highway accounted for 28 % of the total connectivity loss, affecting every province in Borneo and Brunei, with 6 % of this decrease located within protected areas. The Trans-Sumatran Toll Road had the smallest negative effect on connectivity (6 %) but only when excluding the already built segments, which, when included, produce a total negative impact similar to that of the Pan Borneo Highway.

Current trends suggest most Asian countries are unlikely to meet future biodiversity targets on protected areas.

Aichi Target 11 committed governments to protect ≥17% of their terrestrial environments by 2020, yet it was rarely achieved, raising questions about the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework goal to protect 30% by 2030. Asia is a challenging continent for such targets, combining high biodiversity with dense human populations. Here, we evaluated achievements in Asia against Aichi Target 11. We found that Asia was the most underperforming continent globally, with just 13.2% of terrestrial protected area (PA) coverage, averaging 14.1 ± SE 1.8% per country in 2020. 73.1% of terrestrial ecoregions had <17% representation and only 7% of PAs even had an assessment of management effectiveness. We found that a higher agricultural land in 2015 was associated with lower PA coverage today. Asian countries also showed a remarkably slow average annual pace of 0.4 ± SE 0.1% increase of PA extent. These combined lines of evidence suggest that the ambitious 2030 targets are unlikely to be achieved in Asia unless the PA coverage to increase 2.4-5.9 times faster. We provided three recommendations to support Asian countries to meet their post-2020 biodiversity targets: complete reporting and the wider adoption "other effective area-based conservation measures"; restoring disturbed landscapes; and bolstering transboundary PAs.

Population dynamics of threatened felids in response to forest cover change in Sumatra.

Habitat loss caused by deforestation is a global driver of predator population declines. However, few studies have focussed on these effects for mesopredator populations, particularly the cryptic and elusive species inhabiting tropical rainforests. We conducted camera trapping from 2009-11 and 2014-16, and used occupancy modelling to understand trends of Sumatran mesopredator occupancy in response to forest loss and in the absence of threats from poaching. By comparing the two survey periods we quantify the trend of occupancy for three sympatric felid species in the tropical rainforest landscape of Kerinci Seblat National Park. Between 2000 and 2014, forest loss across four study sites ranged from 2.6% to 8.4%. Of three threatened felid species, overall occupancy by Sunda clouded leopard (Neofelis diardi) and Asiatic golden cat (Catopuma temminckii) remained stable across all four areas between the two survey periods, whilst marbled cat (Pardofelis marmorata) occupancy increased. In general occupancy estimates for the three species were: lower in lowland forest and increased to attain their highest values in hill forest, where they declined thereafter; increased further from the forest edge; positively correlated with distance to river, except for golden cat in the second survey where the relationship was negative; and, increased further from active deforestation, especially for clouded leopard in the second survey, but this was some 10-15km away. Our study offers fresh insights into these little known mesopredators in Sumatra and raises the practically important question of how far-reaching is the shadow of the encroachment and road development that typified this deforestation.

Assessing the spatiotemporal interactions of mesopredators in Sumatra's tropical rainforest.

Co-occurrence between mesopredators can be achieved by differentiation of prey, temporal activity, and spatial habitat use. The study of mesopredator interactions is a growing area of research in tropical forests and shedding new light on inter-guild competition between threatened vertebrate species that were previously little understood. Here, we investigate sympatry between the Sunda clouded leopard (Neofelis diardi) and Asiatic golden cat (Pardofelis temminckii) living in the Sumatran rainforests of Indonesia. We investigate: i) spatial overlap of predator-prey species using a combination of single-species occupancy modelling and Bayesian two-species modelling, while controlling for the possible influence of several confounding landscape variables; and, ii) temporal overlap between mesopredators and their shared prey through calculating their kernel density estimate associations. From four study areas, representing lowland, hill, sub-montane and montane forest, 28,404 camera trap nights were sampled. Clouded leopard and golden cat were respectively detected in 24.3% and 22.6% of the 292 sampling sites (camera stations) and co-occurred in 29.6% of the sites where they were detected. Golden cat occupancy was highest in the study area where clouded leopard occupancy was lowest and conversely lowest in the study area where clouded leopard occupancy was highest. However, our fine-scale (camera trap site) analyses found no evidence of avoidance between these two felid species. While both mesopredators exhibited highest spatial overlap with the larger-bodied prey species, temporal niche separation was also found. Clouded leopard was more nocturnal and, consequently, had higher temporal overlap with the more nocturnal prey species, such as porcupine and mouse deer, whereas the more diurnal golden cat had higher overlap with the strictly diurnal great argus pheasant. The Bayesian two species occupancy modelling approach applied in our study fills several important knowledge gaps of Sumatra's lesser known mesopredators and provides a replicable methodology for studying interspecific competition for other small-medium sized carnivore species in the tropics.

Population status of a cryptic top predator: an island-wide assessment of tigers in Sumatran rainforests.

Large carnivores living in tropical rainforests are under immense pressure from the rapid conversion of their habitat. In response, millions of dollars are spent on conserving these species. However, the cost-effectiveness of such investments is poorly understood and this is largely because the requisite population estimates are difficult to achieve at appropriate spatial scales for these secretive species. Here, we apply a robust detection/non-detection sampling technique to produce the first reliable population metric (occupancy) for a critically endangered large carnivore; the Sumatran tiger (Panthera tigris sumatrae). From 2007-2009, seven landscapes were surveyed through 13,511 km of transects in 394 grid cells (17×17 km). Tiger sign was detected in 206 cells, producing a naive estimate of 0.52. However, after controlling for an unequal detection probability (where p = 0.13±0.017; ±S.E.), the estimated tiger occupancy was 0.72±0.048. Whilst the Sumatra-wide survey results gives cause for optimism, a significant negative correlation between occupancy and recent deforestation was found. For example, the Northern Riau landscape had an average deforestation rate of 9.8%/yr and by far the lowest occupancy (0.33±0.055). Our results highlight the key tiger areas in need of protection and have led to one area (Leuser-Ulu Masen) being upgraded as a 'global priority' for wild tiger conservation. However, Sumatra has one of the highest global deforestation rates and the two largest tiger landscapes identified in this study will become highly fragmented if their respective proposed roads networks are approved. Thus, it is vital that the Indonesian government tackles these threats, e.g. through improved land-use planning, if it is to succeed in meeting its ambitious National Tiger Recovery Plan targets of doubling the number of Sumatran tigers by 2022.