Assessing the impact of areal unit selection and the modifiable areal unit problem on associative statistics between cases of tick-borne disease and entomological indices.

The modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) is a cause of statistical and visual bias when aggregating data according to spatial units, particularly when spatial units may be changed arbitrarily. The MAUP is a concern in vector-borne disease research when entomological metrics gathered from point-level sampling data are related to epidemiological data aggregated to administrative units like counties or ZIP Codes. Here, we assess the statistical impact of the MAUP when calculating correlations between randomly aggregated cases of anaplasmosis in New York State during 2017 and a geostatistical layer of an entomological risk index for Anaplasma phagocytophilum in blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis Say, Acari: Ixodidae) collected during the fall of 2017. Correlations were also calculated using various administrative boundaries for comparison. We also demonstrate the impact of the MAUP on data visualization using choropleth maps and offer pycnophylactic interpolation as an alternative. Polygon simulations indicate that increasing the number of polygons decreases correlation coefficients and their variability. Correlation coefficients calculated using ZIP Code tabulation area and Census tract polygons were beyond 4 standard deviations from the mean of the simulated correlation coefficients. These results indicate that using smaller polygons may not best incorporate the geographical context of the tick-borne disease system, despite the tendency of researchers to strive for more granular spatial data and associations.

Spatiotemporal distribution of Borrelia miyamotoi (Spirochaetales: Spirochaetaceae) and coinfection with other tick-borne pathogens in host-seeking Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) from New York State, USA.

Blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis Say, Acari: Ixodidae) were collected from 432 locations across New York State (NYS) during the summer and autumn of 2015-2020 to determine the prevalence and geographic distribution of Borrelia miyamotoi (Spirochaetales: Spirochaetaceae) and coinfections with other tick-borne pathogens. A total of 48,386 I. scapularis were individually analyzed using a multiplex real-time polymerase chain reaction assay to simultaneously detect the presence of Bo. miyamotoi, Borrelia burgdorferi (Spirochaetales: Spirochaetaceae), Anaplasma phagocytophilum (Rickettsiales: Anaplasmataceae), and Babesia microti (Piroplasmida: Babesiidae). Overall prevalence of Bo. miyamotoi in host-seeking nymphs and adults varied geographically and temporally at the regional level. The rate of polymicrobial infection in Bo. miyamotoi-infected ticks varied by developmental stage, with certain co-infections occurring more frequently than expected by chance. Entomological risk of exposure to Bo. miyamotoi-infected nymphal and adult ticks (entomological risk index [ERI]) across NYS regions in relation to human cases of Bo. miyamotoi disease identified during the study period demonstrated spatial and temporal variation. The relationship between select environmental factors and Bo. miyamotoi ERI was explored using generalized linear mixed effects models, resulting in different factors significantly impacting ERI for nymphs and adult ticks. These results can inform estimates of Bo. miyamotoi disease risk and further our understanding of Bo. miyamotoi ecological dynamics in regions where this pathogen is known to occur.

Associations of Anaplasma phagocytophilum Bacteria Variants in Ixodes scapularis Ticks and Humans, New York, USA.

Anaplasmosis, caused by the tickborne bacterium Anaplasma phagocytophilum, is an emerging public health threat in the United States. In the northeastern United States, the blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis) transmits the human pathogenic genetic variant of A. phagocytophilum (Ap-ha) and a nonpathogenic variant (Ap-V1). New York has recently experienced a rapid and geographically focused increase in cases of anaplasmosis. We analyzed A. phagocytophilum-infected I. scapularis ticks collected across New York during 2008-2020 to differentiate between variants and calculate an entomological risk index (ERI) for each. Ap-ha ERI varied between regions and increased in all regions during the final years of the study. Space-time scan analyses detected expanding clusters of Ap-ha located within documented anaplasmosis hotspots. Ap-ha ERI was more positively correlated with anaplasmosis incidence than non-genotyped A. phagocytophilum ERI. Our findings help elucidate the relationship between the spatial ecology of A. phagocytophilum variants and anaplasmosis.

Phylogeographic dynamics of the arthropod vector, the blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis).

BACKGROUND: The emergence of vector-borne pathogens in novel geographic areas is regulated by the migration of their arthropod vectors. Blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis) and the pathogens they vector, including the causative agents of Lyme disease, babesiosis and anaplasmosis, continue to grow in their population sizes and to expand in geographic range. Migration of this vector over the previous decades has been implicated as the cause of the re-emergence of the most prevalent infectious diseases in North America. METHODS: We systematically collected ticks from across New York State (hereafter referred to as New York) from 2004 to 2017 as part of routine tick-borne pathogen surveillance in the state. This time frame corresponds with an increase in range and incidence of tick-borne diseases within New York. We randomly sampled ticks from this collection to explore the evolutionary history and population dynamics of I. scapularis. We sequenced the mitochondrial genomes of each tick to characterize their current and historical spatial genetic structure and population growth using phylogeographic methods. RESULTS: We sequenced whole mitochondrial genomes from 277 ticks collected across New York between 2004 and 2017. We found evidence of population genetic structure at a broad geographic scale due to differences in the relative abundance, but not the composition, of haplotypes among sampled ticks. Ticks were often most closely related to ticks from the same and nearby collection sites. The data indicate that both short- and long-range migration events shape the population dynamics of blacklegged ticks in New York. CONCLUSIONS: We detailed the population dynamics of the blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis) in New York during a time frame in which tick-borne diseases were increasing in range and incidence. Migration of ticks occurred at both coarse and fine scales in the recent past despite evidence of limits to gene flow. Past and current tick population dynamics have implications for further range expansion as habitat suitability for ticks changes due to global climate change. Analyses of mitochondrial genome sequencing data will expound upon previously identified drivers of tick presence and abundance as well as identify additional drivers. These data provide a foundation on which to generate testable hypotheses on the drivers of tick population dynamics occurring at finer scales.

Predicting spatio-temporal population patterns of Borrelia burgdorferi, the Lyme disease pathogen.

The causative bacterium of Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi, expanded from an undetected human pathogen into the etiologic agent of the most common vector-borne disease in the United States over the last several decades. Systematic field collections of the tick vector reveal increases in the geographic range and prevalence of B. burgdorferi-infected ticks that coincided with increases in human Lyme disease incidence across New York State.We investigate the impact of environmental features on the population dynamics of B. burgdorferi. Analytical models developed using field collections of nearly 19,000 nymphal Ixodes scapularis and spatially and temporally explicit environmental features accurately explained the variation in the nymphal infection prevalence of B. burgdorferi across space and time.Importantly, the model identified environmental features reflecting landscape ecology, vertebrate hosts, climatic metrics, climate anomalies and surveillance efforts that can be used to predict the biogeographical patterns of B. burgdorferi-infected ticks into future years and in previously unsampled areas.Forecasting the distribution and prevalence of a pathogen at fine geographic scales offers a powerful strategy to mitigate a serious public health threat. Synthesis and applications. A decade of environmental and tick data was collected to create a model that accurately predicts the infection prevalence of Borrelia burgdorferi over space and time. This predictive model can be extrapolated to create a high-resolution risk map of the Lyme disease pathogen for future years that offers an inexpensive approach to improve both ecological management and public health strategies to mitigate disease risk.

Epidemiology and Spatial Emergence of Anaplasmosis, New York, USA, 2010‒2018.

Human granulocytic anaplasmosis, a tickborne disease caused by the bacterium Anaplasma phagocytophilum, was first identified during 1994 and is now an emerging public health threat in the United States. New York state (NYS) has experienced a recent increase in the incidence of anaplasmosis. We analyzed human case surveillance and tick surveillance data collected by the NYS Department of Health for spatiotemporal patterns of disease emergence. We describe the epidemiology and growing incidence of anaplasmosis cases reported during 2010-2018. Spatial analysis showed an expanding hot spot of anaplasmosis in the Capital Region, where incidence increased >8-fold. The prevalence of A. phagocytophilum increased greatly within tick populations in the Capital Region over the same period, and entomologic risk factors were correlated with disease incidence at a local level. These results indicate that anaplasmosis is rapidly emerging in a geographically focused area of NYS, likely driven by localized changes in exposure risk.

A Comparative Spatial and Climate Analysis of Human Granulocytic Anaplasmosis and Human Babesiosis in New York State (2013-2018).

Human granulocytic anaplasmosis (HGA) and human babesiosis are tick-borne diseases spread by the blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis Say, Acari: Ixodidae) and are the result of infection with Anaplasma phagocytophilum and Babesia microti, respectively. In New York State (NYS), incidence rates of these diseases increased concordantly until around 2013, when rates of HGA began to increase more rapidly than human babesiosis, and the spatial extent of the diseases diverged. Surveillance data of tick-borne pathogens (2007 to 2018) and reported human cases of HGA (n = 4,297) and human babesiosis (n = 2,986) (2013-2018) from the New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) showed a positive association between the presence/temporal emergence of each pathogen and rates of disease in surrounding areas. Incidence rates of HGA were higher than human babesiosis among White and non-Hispanic/non-Latino individuals, as well as all age and sex groups. Human babesiosis exhibited higher rates among non-White individuals. Climate, weather, and landscape data were used to build a spatially weighted zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model to examine and compare associations between the environment and rates of HGA and human babesiosis. HGA and human babesiosis ZINB models indicated similar associations with forest cover, forest land cover change, and winter minimum temperature; and differing associations with elevation, urban land cover change, and winter precipitation. These results indicate that tick-borne disease ecology varies between pathogens spread by I. scapularis.

Spatial and temporal expansions of Eastern equine encephalitis virus and phylogenetic groups isolated from mosquitoes and mammalian cases in New York State from 2013 to 2019.

Surveillance for the emerging infectious disease Eastern equine encephalitis, and its causative virus in mosquitoes, continued within New York State from 2013 to 2019. There were increases in geographic area and number of consecutive years, with cases in four mammalian species, and virus in 11 mosquito species. The first cases in a goat and in an emu were reported. The first detection of virus in Aedes cinereus was reported. Virus in phylogenetic group NY4 was isolated from a horse and from mosquitoes 6 kilometers and 13 days apart in 2013. Phylogenetic groups NY4 and NY5 were found 15 days apart in two towns 280 kilometers distant in 2013. Within four adjacent counties there was a pattern of overlap, where four had NY5, two adjacent counties had NY6, two adjacent counties had NY7, and one county had NY5, NY6, and NY7, reducible to a Euler diagram. Virus in phylogenetic group NY5, found within an 11-kilometer wide area in New York State, was related to FL4 found in Florida 1,398 kilometers distant. This was consistent with a phylogenetic group originating in Florida, then being moved to a specific location in New York State, by migratory birds in consecutive years 2013 and 2014.