A non-homogeneous model of chromosome-number evolution to reveal shifts in the transition patterns across the phylogeny.

Changes in chromosome numbers, including polyploidy and dysploidy events, play a key role in eukaryote evolution as they could expediate reproductive isolation and have the potential to foster phenotypic diversification. Deciphering the pattern of chromosome-number change within a phylogeny currently relies on probabilistic evolutionary models. All currently available models assume time homogeneity, such that the transition rates are identical throughout the phylogeny. Here, we develop heterogeneous models of chromosome-number evolution that allow multiple transition regimes to operate in distinct parts of the phylogeny. The partition of the phylogeny to distinct transition regimes may be specified by the researcher or, alternatively, identified using a sequential testing approach. Once the number and locations of shifts in the transition pattern are determined, a second search phase identifies regimes with similar transition dynamics, which could indicate on convergent evolution. Using simulations, we study the performance of the developed model to detect shifts in patterns of chromosome-number evolution and demonstrate its applicability by analyzing the evolution of chromosome numbers within the Cyperaceae plant family. The developed model extends the capabilities of probabilistic models of chromosome-number evolution and should be particularly helpful for the analyses of large phylogenies that include multiple distinct subclades.

Mechanisms Underlying Host Range Variation in Flavivirus: From Empirical Knowledge to Predictive Models.

Preventing and controlling epidemics caused by vector-borne viruses are particularly challenging due to their diverse pool of hosts and highly adaptive nature. Many vector-borne viruses belong to the Flavivirus genus, whose members vary greatly in host range and specificity. Members of the Flavivirus genus can be categorized to four main groups: insect-specific viruses that are maintained solely in arthropod populations, mosquito-borne viruses and tick-borne viruses that are transmitted to vertebrate hosts by mosquitoes or ticks via blood feeding, and those with no-known vector. The mosquito-borne group encompasses the yellow fever, dengue, and West Nile viruses, all of which are globally spread and cause severe morbidity in humans. The Flavivirus genus is genetically diverse, and its members are subject to different host-specific and vector-specific selective constraints, which do not always align. Thus, understanding the underlying genetic differences that led to the diversity in host range within this genus is an important aspect in deciphering the mechanisms that drive host compatibility and can aid in the constant arms-race against viral threats. Here, we review the phylogenetic relationships between members of the genus, their infection bottlenecks, and phenotypic and genomic differences. We further discuss methods that utilize these differences for prediction of host shifts in flaviviruses and can contribute to viral surveillance efforts.

A Codon Model for Associating Phenotypic Traits with Altered Selective Patterns of Sequence Evolution.

Detecting the signature of selection in coding sequences and associating it with shifts in phenotypic states can unveil genes underlying complex traits. Of the various signatures of selection exhibited at the molecular level, changes in the pattern of selection at protein-coding genes have been of main interest. To this end, phylogenetic branch-site codon models are routinely applied to detect changes in selective patterns along specific branches of the phylogeny. Many of these methods rely on a prespecified partition of the phylogeny to branch categories, thus treating the course of trait evolution as fully resolved and assuming that phenotypic transitions have occurred only at speciation events. Here, we present TraitRELAX, a new phylogenetic model that alleviates these strong assumptions by explicitly accounting for the uncertainty in the evolution of both trait and coding sequences. This joint statistical framework enables the detection of changes in selection intensity upon repeated trait transitions. We evaluated the performance of TraitRELAX using simulations and then applied it to two case studies. Using TraitRELAX, we found an intensification of selection in the primate SEMG2 gene in polygynandrous species compared to species of other mating forms, as well as changes in the intensity of purifying selection operating on sixteen bacterial genes upon transitioning from a free-living to an endosymbiotic lifestyle.[Evolutionary selection; intensification; $\gamma $-proteobacteria; genotype-phenotype; relaxation; SEMG2.].

COVID-19 pandemic-related lockdown: response time is more important than its strictness.

The rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 and its threat to health systems worldwide have led governments to take acute actions to enforce social distancing. Previous studies used complex epidemiological models to quantify the effect of lockdown policies on infection rates. However, these rely on prior assumptions or on official regulations. Here, we use country-specific reports of daily mobility from people cellular usage to model social distancing. Our data-driven model enabled the extraction of lockdown characteristics which were crossed with observed mortality rates to show that: (i) the time at which social distancing was initiated is highly correlated with the number of deaths, r2  = 0.64, while the lockdown strictness or its duration is not as informative; (ii) a delay of 7.49 days in initiating social distancing would double the number of deaths; and (iii) the immediate response has a prolonged effect on COVID-19 death toll.