Relationships of change in Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) on patient outcomes and probability of progression: observational analysis.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the relationship among changes in Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR), patient outcomes, and probability of progression is crucial for evaluating the long-term benefits of disease-modifying treatments. We examined associations among changes in Alzheimer's disease (AD) stages and outcomes that are important to patients and their care partners including activities of daily living (ADLs), geriatric depression, neuropsychiatric features, cognitive impairment, and the probabilities of being transitioned to a long-term care facility (i.e., institutionalization). We also estimated the total time spent at each stage and annual transition probabilities in AD. METHODS: The study included participants with unimpaired cognition, mild cognitive impairment (MCI) due to AD, and mild, moderate, and severe AD dementia in the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center (NACC) Uniform Data Set (UDS) database. The associations among change in AD stages and change in relevant outcomes were estimated using linear mixed models with random intercepts. The probability of transitioning to long-term care facilities was modeled using generalized estimating equations. The total length of time spent at AD stages and annual transition probabilities were estimated with multistate Markov models. RESULTS: The estimated average time spent in each stage was 3.2 years in MCI due to AD and 2.2, 2.0, and 2.8 years for mild, moderate, and severe AD dementia, respectively. The annual probabilities of progressing from MCI to mild, moderate, and severe AD dementia were 20, 4, and 0.7%, respectively. The incremental change to the next stage of participants with unimpaired cognition, MCI, and mild, moderate, and severe AD dementia (to death) was 3.2, 20, 26.6, 31, and 25.3%, respectively. Changes in ADLs, neuropsychiatric features, and cognitive measures were greatest among participants who transitioned from MCI and mild AD dementia to more advanced stages. Participants with MCI and mild and moderate AD dementia had increasing odds of being transitioned to long-term care facilities over time during the follow-up period. CONCLUSIONS: The findings demonstrated that participants with early stages AD (MCI or mild dementia) were associated with the largest changes in clinical scale scores. Early detection, diagnosis, and intervention by disease-modifying therapies are required for delaying AD progression. Additionally, estimates of transition probabilities can inform future studies and health economic modeling.

Impact of Vagus Nerve Stimulation for the Treatment of Drug-resistant Epilepsy on Patterns of Use and Cost of Health Care Services and Pharmacotherapy: Comparisons of the 24-Month Periods Before and After Implantation.

PURPOSE: This study examines the impact of vagus nerve stimulation (VNS) as treatment for drug-resistant epilepsy (DRE) on the use and cost of health care services and pharmacotherapy. METHODS: Using a large US health care claims database, we identified all patients with DRE who underwent VNS between January 1, 2012 and December 31, 2019. VNS implantation date was designated as the index date, and patients had to be continuously enrolled for the 24-month period before this date (preindex period). Outcomes included all-cause and epilepsy-related hospitalization, emergency department (ED) visits, and health care costs; health care claims resulting in an epilepsy diagnosis and all claims for antiseizure medications were deemed epilepsy related. Preindex data, except care related to preoperative medical clearance for VNS, were used to estimate multivariate regression models predicting outcomes during the 24-month postindex period (follow-up period). Predicted outcomes during follow-up were then compared with observed values. As a sensitivity analysis, we also replicated all analyses among subgroups defined by comorbid depression. FINDINGS: A total of 659 patients underwent VNS for DRE and met the selection criteria. For the composite outcome of all-cause hospitalizations and ED visits, observed values were 42% lower than expected during the 24-month follow-up period; for the composite outcome of epilepsy-related hospitalizations and ED visits, observed values were 49% lower (P < 0.001 for both). Observed mean total all-cause costs, inclusive of costs of the procedure, were not significantly different than expected costs by month 19 of follow-up; mean total epilepsy-related costs were comparable by month 18. Findings were similar in subgroups with and without depression, although nominally greater differences (observed - expected) were seen in those with comorbid depression. IMPLICATIONS: Our findings suggest that VNS is associated with decreased risk of hospitalization or ED visits (all cause and epilepsy related) during the 2-year period subsequent to implantation and may become cost-neutral within 2 years of implantation (vs continued medical management of DRE without VNS). Although expected outcomes were estimated based on the 24-month period before implantation, the degree to which they approximated what would have happened in the absence of VNS is unknowable. Further research is needed to better understand the extend and duration of the impact of VNS on seizure frequency and severity and health-related quality of life, including its performance among those with and without comorbid depression.

Assessing tobacco smoke exposure in pregnancy from self-report, urinary cotinine and NNAL: a validation study using the New Hampshire Birth Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: Accurate assessment of tobacco smoke exposure is key to evaluate its effects. We sought to validate and establish cut-offs for self-reported smoking and secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure during pregnancy using urinary cotinine and 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(-3-pyridyl)-1-butanol (NNAL) in a large contemporary prospective study from the USA, with lower smoking prevalence than has previously been evaluated. DESIGN: Prospective birth cohort. SETTING: Pregnancy clinics in New Hampshire and Vermont, USA. PARTICIPANTS: 1396 women enrolled in the New Hampshire Birth Cohort Study with self-reported smoking, urinary cotinine, NNAL and pregnancy outcomes. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Cut-offs for urinary cotinine and NNAL concentrations were estimated from logistic regression models using Youden's method to predict SHS and active smoking. Cotinine and NNAL were each used as the exposure in separate multifactorial models for pregnancy outcomes. RESULTS: Self-reported maternal smoking was: 72% non-smokers, 5.7% ex-smokers, 6.4% SHS exposure, 6.2% currently smoked, 10% unreported. Cotinine and NNAL levels were low and highly intercorrelated (r=0.91). Geometric mean cotinine, NNAL were 0.99 ng/mL, 0.05 pmol/mL, respectively. Cotinine cut-offs for SHS, current smoking were 1.2 ng/mL and 1.8 ng/mL (area under curve (AUC) 95% CI: 0.52 (0.47 to 0.57), 0.90 (0.85 to 0.94)). NNAL cut-off for current smoking was 0.09 pmol/mL (AUC=0.82 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.87)). Using cotinine and NNAL cut-offs combined gave similar AUC to cotinine alone, 0.87 (95% CI 0.82 to 0.91). Cotinine and NNAL gave almost identical effect estimates when modelling pregnancy outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: In this population, we observed high concordance between self-complete questionnaire smoking data and urinary cotinine and NNAL. With respect to biomarkers, either cotinine or NNAL can be used as a measure of tobacco smoke exposure overall but only cotinine can be used to detect SHS.

Children's Particulate Matter Exposure Characterization as Part of the New Hampshire Birth Cohort Study.

As part of the New Hampshire Birth Cohort Study, children 3 to 5 years of age participated in a personal PM2.5 exposure study. This paper characterizes the personal PM2.5 exposure and protocol compliance measured with a wearable sensor. The MicroPEM™ collected personal continuous and integrated measures of PM2.5 exposure and compliance data on 272 children. PM2.5, black carbon (BC), and brown carbon tobacco smoke (BrC-ETS) exposure was measured from the filters. We performed a multivariate analysis of woodstove presence and other factors that influenced PM2.5, BC, and BrC exposures. We collected valid exposure data from 258 of the 272 participants (95%). Children wore the MicroPEM for an average of 46% of the 72-h period, and over 80% for a 2-day, 1-night period (with sleep hours counted as non-compliance for this study). Elevated PM2.5 exposures occurred in the morning, evening, and overnight. Median PM2.5, BC, and BrC-ETS concentrations were 8.1 µg/m3, 3.6 µg/m3, and 2.4 µg/m3. The combined BC and BrC-ETS mass comprised 72% of the PM2.5. Woodstove presence, hours used per day, and the primary heating source were associated with the children's PM2.5 exposure and air filters were associated with reduced PM2.5 concentrations. Our findings suggest that woodstove smoke contributed significantly to this cohort's PM2.5 exposure. The high sample validity and compliance rate demonstrated that the MicroPEM can be worn by young children in epidemiologic studies to measure their PM2.5 exposure, inform interventions to reduce the exposures, and improve children's health.

Maternal gestational mercury exposure in relation to cord blood T cell alterations and placental gene expression signatures.

The immunotoxic impacts of mercury during early life is poorly understood. We investigated the associations between gestational mercury exposure and frequency of cord blood T cells as well as placental gene expression. Frequency of natural Treg cells was positively associated with prenatal and postpartum mercury toenail concentrations. Frequency of NKT and activated naïve Th cells was positively associated with prenatal toenail mercury concentrations and number of maternal silver-mercury dental amalgams, respectively. Placental gene expression analyses revealed distinct gene signatures associated with mercury exposure. Decreased placental expression of a histone demethylase, KDM4DL, was associated with both higher prenatal and postpartum maternal toenail mercury levels among male infants and remained statistically significant after adjustment for fish and seafood consumption. The results suggest that gestational exposure to mercury concentrations contribute to alterations in both T cells and gene expression in placenta at birth. These alterations may inform mechanisms of mercury immunotoxicity.

A Secure and Reusable Software Architecture for Supporting Online Data Harmonization.

Retrospective data harmonization across multiple research cohorts and studies is frequently done to increase statistical power, provide comparison analysis, and create a richer data source for data mining. However, when combining disparate data sources, harmonization projects face data management and analysis challenges. These include differences in the data dictionaries and variable definitions, privacy concerns surrounding health data representing sensitive populations, and lack of properly defined data models. With the availability of mature open-source web-based database technologies, developing a complete software architecture to overcome the challenges associated with the harmonization process can alleviate many roadblocks. By leveraging state-of-the-art software engineering and database principles, we can ensure data quality and enable cross-center online access and collaboration. This paper outlines a complete software architecture developed and customized using the Django web framework, leveraged to harmonize sensitive data collected from three NIH-support birth cohorts. We describe our framework and show how we successfully overcame challenges faced when harmonizing data from these cohorts. We discuss our efforts in data cleaning, data sharing, data transformation, data visualization, and analytics, while reflecting on what we have learned to date from these harmonized datasets.

Assessing the prior event rate ratio method via probabilistic bias analysis on a Bayesian network.

BACKGROUND: Unmeasured confounders are commonplace in observational studies conducted using real-world data. Prior event rate ratio (PERR) adjustment is a technique shown to perform well in addressing such confounding. However, it has been demonstrated that, in some circumstances, the PERR method actually increases rather than decreases bias. In this work, we seek to better understand the robustness of PERR adjustment. METHODS: We begin with a Bayesian network representation of a generalized observational study, which is subject to unmeasured confounding. Previous work evaluating PERR performance used Monte Carlo simulation to calculate joint probabilities of interest within the study population. Here, we instead use a Bayesian networks framework. RESULTS: Using this streamlined analytic approach, we are able to conduct probabilistic bias analysis (PBA) using large numbers of combinations of parameters and thus obtain a comprehensive picture of PERR performance. We apply our methodology to a recent study that used the PERR in evaluating elderly-specific high-dose (HD) influenza vaccine in the US Veterans Affairs population. That study obtained an HD relative effectiveness of 25% (95% CI: 2%-43%) against influenza- and pneumonia-associated hospitalization, relative to standard-dose influenza vaccine. In this instance, we find that the PERR-adjusted result is more like to underestimate rather than to overestimate the relative effectiveness of the intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Although the PERR is a powerful tool for mitigating the effects of unmeasured confounders, it is not infallible. Here, we develop some general guidance for when a PERR approach is appropriate and when PBA is a safer option.

Incidence of Clostridioides difficile infections among young and middle-aged adults: Veterans Health Administration.

OBJECTIVE: Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) remains a significant public health concern, resulting in excess morbidity, mortality, and costs. Additional insight into the burden of CDI in adults aged <65 years is needed. DESIGN/SETTING: A 6-year retrospective cohort study was conducted using data extracted from United States Veterans Health Administration electronic medical records. PATIENTS/METHODS: Patients aged 18-64 years on January 1, 2011, were followed until incident CDI, death, loss-to-follow-up, or December 31, 2016. CDI was identified by a diagnosis code accompanied by metronidazole, vancomycin, or fidaxomicin therapy, or positive laboratory test. The clinical setting of CDI onset was defined according to 2017 SHEA-IDSA guidelines. RESULTS: Of 1,073,900 patients, 10,534 had a CDI during follow-up. The overall incidence rate was 177 CDIs per 100,000 person years, rising steadily from 164 per 100,000 person years in 2011 to 189 per 100,000 person years in 2016. Those with a CDI were slightly older (55 vs 51 years) and sicker, with a higher baseline Charlson comorbidity index score (1.4 vs 0.5) than those without an infection. Nearly half (48%) of all incident CDIs were community associated, and this proportion rose from 41% in 2011 to 56% in 2016. CONCLUSIONS: The findings from this large retrospective study indicate that CDI incidence, driven primarily by increasing community-associated infection, is rising among young and middle-aged adult Veterans with high service-related disability. The increasing burden of community associated CDI in this vulnerable population warrants attention. Future studies quantifying the economic and societal burden of CDI will inform decisions surrounding prevention strategies.

Prenatal arsenic exposure alters the placental expression of multiple epigenetic regulators in a sex-dependent manner.

BACKGROUND: Prenatal exposure to arsenic has been linked to a range of adverse health conditions in later life. Such fetal origins of disease are frequently the result of environmental effects on the epigenome, leading to long-term alterations in gene expression. Several studies have demonstrated effects of prenatal arsenic exposure on DNA methylation; however the impact of arsenic on the generation and decoding of post-translational histone modifications (PTHMs) is less well characterized, and has not been studied in the context of prenatal human exposures. METHODS: In the current study, we examined the effect of exposure to low-to-moderate levels of arsenic in a US birth cohort, on the expression of 138 genes encoding key epigenetic regulators in the fetal portion of the placenta. Our candidate genes included readers, writers and erasers of PTHMs, and chromatin remodelers. RESULTS: Arsenic exposure was associated with the expression of 27 of the 138 epigenetic genes analyzed. When the cohort was stratified by fetal sex, arsenic exposure was associated with the expression of 40 genes in male fetal placenta, and only 3 non-overlapping genes in female fetal placenta. In particular, we identified an inverse relationship between arsenic exposure and expression of the gene encoding the histone methyltransferase, PRDM6 (p < 0.001). Mutation of PRDM6 has been linked to the congenital heart defect, patent ductus arteriosus. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that prenatal arsenic exposure may have sex-specific effects on the fetal epigenome, which could plausibly contribute to its subsequent health impacts.