Variations in antimicrobial resistance genes present in the rectal faeces of seals in Scottish and Liverpool Bay coastal waters.

Antibiotic resistance genes originating from human activity are considered important environmental pollutants. Wildlife species can act as sentinels for coastal environmental contamination and in this study we used qPCR array technology to investigate the variety and abundance of antimicrobial resistance genes (ARGs), mobile genetic elements (MGEs) and integrons circulating within seal populations both near to and far from large human populations located around the Scottish and northwest English coast. Rectal swabs were taken from 50 live grey seals and nine live harbour seals. Nucleic acids were stabilised upon collection, enabling extraction of sufficient quality and quantity DNA for downstream analysis. 78 ARG targets, including genes of clinical significance, four MGE targets and three integron targets were used to monitor genes within 22 sample pools. 30 ARGs were detected, as well as the integrons intl1 and intl2 and tnpA transposase. Four ß-lactam, nine tetracycline, two phenicol, one trimethoprim, three aminoglycoside and ten multidrug resistance genes were detected as well as mcr-1 which confers resistance to colistin, an important drug of last resort. No sulphonamide, vancomycin, macrolide, lincosamide or streptogramin B (MLSB) resistance genes were detected. Resistance genes were detected in all sites but the highest number of ARGs (n = 29) was detected in samples derived from grey seals on the Isle of May, Scotland during the breeding season, and these genes also had the highest average abundance in relation to the 16S rRNA gene. This pilot study demonstrates the effectiveness of a culture-independent workflow for global analysis of ARGs within the microbiota of live, free-ranging, wild animals from habitats close to and remote from human habitation, and highlights seals as a valuable indicator species for monitoring the presence, abundance and land-sea transference of resistance genes within and between ecosystems.

The first report of Listeria monocytogenes detected in pinnipeds.

The aim of this study was to describe the pathology in seals from which Listeria monocytogenes was isolated and investigate if the lesions' nature and severity were related to the phylogeny of isolates. L. monocytogenes was isolated from 13 of 50 (26%) dead grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) pups, six (12%) in systemic distribution, on the Isle of May, Scotland. Similar fatal L. monocytogenes-associated infections were found in a grey seal pup from Carnoustie, Scotland, and a juvenile harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) in the Netherlands. Whole genome sequencing of 15 of the L. monocytogenes isolates identified 13 multilocus sequence types belonging to the L. monocytogenes lineages I and II, but with scant phenotypic and genotypic antimicrobial resistance and limited variation in virulence factors. The phylogenetic diversity present suggests there are multiple sources of L. monocytogenes, even for seal pups born in the same colony and breeding season. This is the first description of L. monocytogenes isolated from, and detected in lesions in, pinnipeds and indicates that infection can be systemic and fatal. Therefore, listeriosis may be an emerging or overlooked disease in seals with infection originating from contamination of the marine environment.

Alzheimer's disease-like neuropathology in three species of oceanic dolphin.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common neurodegenerative disease and the primary cause of disability and dependency among elderly humans worldwide. AD is thought to be a disease unique to humans although several other animals develop some aspects of AD-like pathology. Odontocetes (toothed whales) share traits with humans that suggest they may be susceptible to AD. The brains of 22 stranded odontocetes of five different species were examined using immunohistochemistry to investigate the presence or absence of neuropathological hallmarks of AD: amyloid-beta plaques, phospho-tau accumulation and gliosis. Immunohistochemistry revealed that all aged animals accumulated amyloid plaque pathology. In three animals of three different species of odontocete, there was co-occurrence of amyloid-beta plaques, intraneuronal accumulation of hyperphosphorylated tau, neuropil threads and neuritic plaques. One animal showed well-developed neuropil threads, phospho-tau accumulation and neuritic plaques, but no amyloid plaques. Microglia and astrocytes were present as expected in all brain samples examined, but we observed differences in cell morphology and numbers between individual animals. The simultaneous occurrence of amyloid-beta plaques and hyperphosphorylated tau pathology in the brains of odontocetes shows that these three species develop AD-like neuropathology spontaneously. The significance of this pathology with respect to the health and, ultimately, death of the animals remains to be determined. However, it may contribute to the cause(s) of unexplained live-stranding in some odontocete species and supports the 'sick-leader' theory whereby healthy conspecifics in a pod mass strand due to high social cohesion.

Consequences of in vitro benzyl butyl phthalate exposure for blubber gene expression and insulin-induced Akt activation in juvenile grey seals.

Plastic and plasticiser pollution of marine environments is a growing concern. Although phthalates, one group of plasticisers, are rapidly metabolised by mammals, they are found ubiquitously in humans and have been linked with metabolic disorders and altered adipose function. Phthalates may also present a threat to marine mammals, which need to rapidly accumulate and mobilise their large fat depots. High molecular weight (HMW) phthalates may be most problematic because they can accumulate in adipose. We used blubber explants from juvenile grey seals to examine the effects of overnight exposure to the HMW, adipogenic phthalate, benzyl butyl phthalate (BBzP) on expression of key adipose-specific genes and on phosphorylation of Akt in response to insulin. We found substantial differences in transcript abundance of Pparγ, Insig2, Fasn, Scd, Adipoq and Lep between moult stages, when animals were also experiencing differing mass changes, and between tissue depths, which likely reflect differences in blubber function. Akt abundance was higher in inner compared to outer blubber, consistent with greater metabolic activity in adipose closer to muscle than skin, and its phosphorylation was stimulated by insulin. Transcript abundance of Pparγ and Fasn (and Adipoq in some animals) were increased by short term (30 min) insulin exposure. In addition, overnight in vitro BBzP exposure altered insulin-induced changes in Pparγ (and Adipoq in some animals) transcript abundance, in a tissue depth and moult stage-specific manner. Basal or insulin-induced Akt phosphorylation was not changed. BBzP thus acted rapidly on the transcript abundance of key adipose genes in an Akt-independent manner. Our data suggest phthalate exposure could alter seal blubber development or function, although the whole animal consequences of these changes are not yet understood. Knowledge of typical phthalate exposures and toxicokinetics would help to contextualise these findings in terms of phthalate-induced metabolic disruption risk and consequences for marine mammal health.

Managing the effects of multiple stressors on wildlife populations in their ecosystems: developing a cumulative risk approach.

Assessing cumulative effects of human activities on ecosystems is required by many jurisdictions, but current science cannot meet regulatory demands. Regulations define them as effect(s) of one human action combined with other actions. Here we argue for an approach that evaluates the cumulative risk of multiple stressors for protected wildlife populations within their ecosystems. Monitoring effects of each stressor is necessary but not sufficient to estimate how multiple stressors interact to affect wildlife populations. Examining the mechanistic pathways, from cellular to ecological, by which stressors affect individuals can help prioritize stressors and interpret how they interact. Our approach uses health indicators to accumulate the effects of stressors on individuals and to estimate changes in vital rates, driving population status. We advocate using methods well-established in human health and integrating them into ecosystem-based management to protect the health of commercially and culturally important wildlife populations and to protect against risk of extinction for threatened species. Our approach will improve abilities to conserve and manage ecosystems but will also demand significant increases in research and monitoring effort. We advocate for increased investment proportional to the economic scale of human activities in the Anthropocene and their pervasive effects on ecology and biodiversity.

A comparative study of the fecal microbiota of gray seal pups and yearlings - a marine mammal sentinel species.

Gray seals (Halichoerus grypus) can act as sentinel species reflecting the condition of the environment they inhabit. Our previous research identified strains of pathogenic Campylobacter and Salmonella, originating from both human and agricultural animal hosts, on rectal swabs from live gray seal (H. grypus) pups and yearlings on the Isle of May, Scotland, UK. We examined rectal swabs from the same pup (n = 90) and yearling (n = 19) gray seals to gain further understanding into the effects of age-related changes (pup vs. yearling) and three different natal terrestrial habitats on seal pup fecal microbiota. DNA was extracted from a subset of rectal swabs (pups n = 23, yearlings n = 9) using an optimized procedure, and the V4 region of the 16S ribosomal RNA gene was sequenced to identify each individual's microbiota. Diversity in pup samples was lower (3.92 ± 0.19) than yearlings (4.66 ± 0.39) although not significant at the p = 0.05 level (p = 0.062) but differences in the composition of the microbiota were (p < 0.001). Similarly, differences between the composition of the microbiota from pups from three different terrestrial habitats (Pilgrim's Haven [PH], Rona Rocks [RR], and Tarbet Slope [TS]) were highly significant (p < 0.001). Pairwise tests showed significant differences between all three habitats: PH versus TS (p = 0.019), PH versus RR (p = 0.042) and TS versus RR (p = 0.020). This preliminary study suggests a general trend, that seal microbiomes are modified by both age and, in pups, different terrestrial habitats. Furthermore, knowledge of the microbiota species present has the potential to be used in determining the environmental quality index.

Origin and expansion of the world's most widespread pinniped: Range-wide population genomics of the harbour seal (Phoca vitulina).

The harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) is the most widely distributed pinniped, occupying a wide variety of habitats and climatic zones across the Northern Hemisphere. Intriguingly, the harbour seal is also one of the most philopatric seals, raising questions as to how it colonized its current range. To shed light on the origin, remarkable range expansion, population structure and genetic diversity of this species, we used genotyping-by-sequencing to analyse ~13,500 biallelic single nucleotide polymorphisms from 286 individuals sampled from 22 localities across the species' range. Our results point to a Northeast Pacific origin of the harbour seal, colonization of the North Atlantic via the Canadian Arctic, and subsequent stepping-stone range expansions across the North Atlantic from North America to Europe, accompanied by a successive loss of genetic diversity. Our analyses further revealed a deep divergence between modern North Pacific and North Atlantic harbour seals, with finer-scale genetic structure at regional and local scales consistent with strong philopatry. The study provides new insights into the harbour seal's remarkable ability to colonize and adapt to a wide range of habitats. Furthermore, it has implications for current harbour seal subspecies delineations and highlights the need for international and national red lists and management plans to ensure the protection of genetically and demographically isolated populations.

Understanding the combined effects of multiple stressors: A new perspective on a longstanding challenge.

Wildlife populations and their habitats are exposed to an expanding diversity and intensity of stressors caused by human activities, within the broader context of natural processes and increasing pressure from climate change. Estimating how these multiple stressors affect individuals, populations, and ecosystems is thus of growing importance. However, their combined effects often cannot be predicted reliably from the individual effects of each stressor, and we lack the mechanistic understanding and analytical tools to predict their joint outcomes. We review the science of multiple stressors and present a conceptual framework that captures and reconciles the variety of existing approaches for assessing combined effects. Specifically, we show that all approaches lie along a spectrum, reflecting increasing assumptions about the mechanisms that regulate the action of single stressors and their combined effects. An emphasis on mechanisms improves analytical precision and predictive power but could introduce bias if the underlying assumptions are incorrect. A purely empirical approach has less risk of bias but requires adequate data on the effects of the full range of anticipated combinations of stressor types and magnitudes. We illustrate how this spectrum can be formalised into specific analytical methods, using an example of North Atlantic right whales feeding on limited prey resources while simultaneously being affected by entanglement in fishing gear. In practice, case-specific management needs and data availability will guide the exploration of the stressor combinations of interest and the selection of a suitable trade-off between precision and bias. We argue that the primary goal for adaptive management should be to identify the most practical and effective ways to remove or reduce specific combinations of stressors, bringing the risk of adverse impacts on populations and ecosystems below acceptable thresholds.

Climate change complicates efforts to ensure survival and recovery of St. Lawrence Estuary beluga.

Decades after a ban on hunting, and despite focused management interventions, the endangered St. Lawrence Estuary (SLE) beluga (Delphinapterus leucas) population has failed to recover. We applied a population viability analysis to simulate the responses of the SLE beluga population across a wide range of variability and uncertainty under current and projected changes in environmental and climate-mediated conditions. Three proximate threats to recovery were explored: ocean noise; contaminants; and prey limitation. Even the most optimistic scenarios failed to achieve the reliable positive population growth needed to meet current recovery targets. Here we show that predicted effects of climate change may be a more significant driver of SLE beluga population dynamics than the proximate threats we considered. Aggressive mitigation of all three proximate threats will be needed to build the population's resilience and allow the population to persist long enough for global actions to mitigate climate change to take effect.

Presence of DNA from Chlamydia-like organisms in the nasal cavities of grey seal pups (Halichoerus grypus) and three different substrates present in a breeding colony.

BACKGROUND: Chlamydia-like organisms (CLO) have been found to be present in many environmental niches, including human sewage and agricultural run-off, as well as in a number of aquatic species worldwide. Therefore, monitoring their presence in sentinel wildlife species may be useful in assessing the wider health of marine food webs in response to habitat loss, pollution and disease. We used nasal swabs from live (n = 42) and dead (n = 50) pre-weaned grey seal pups and samples of differing natal substrates (n = 8) from an off-shore island devoid of livestock and permanent human habitation to determine if CLO DNA is present in these mammals and to identify possible sources. RESULTS: We recovered CLO DNA from 32/92 (34.7%) nasal swabs from both live (n = 17) and dead (n = 15) seal pups that clustered most closely with currently recognised species belonging to three chlamydial families: Parachlamydiaceae (n = 22), Rhabdochlamydiaceae (n = 6), and Simkaniaceae (n = 3). All DNA positive sediment samples (n = 7) clustered with the Rhabdochlamydiaceae. No difference was found in rates of recovery of CLO DNA in live versus dead pups suggesting the organisms are commensal but their potential as opportunistic secondary pathogens could not be determined. CONCLUSION: This is the first report of CLO DNA being found in marine mammals. This identification warrants further investigation in other seal populations around the coast of the UK and in other areas of the world to determine if this finding is unique or more common than shown by this data. Further investigation would also be warranted to determine if they are present as purely commensal organisms or whether they could also be opportunistic pathogens in seals, as well as to investigate possible sources of origin, including whether they originated as a result of anthropogenic impacts, including human waste and agricultural run-off.

A review of the toxicology of oil in vertebrates: what we have learned following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

In the wake of the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill, a number of government agencies, academic institutions, consultants, and nonprofit organizations conducted lab- and field-based research to understand the toxic effects of the oil. Lab testing was performed with a variety of fish, birds, turtles, and vertebrate cell lines (as well as invertebrates); field biologists conducted observations on fish, birds, turtles, and marine mammals; and epidemiologists carried out observational studies in humans. Eight years after the spill, scientists and resource managers held a workshop to summarize the similarities and differences in the effects of DWH oil on vertebrate taxa and to identify remaining gaps in our understanding of oil toxicity in wildlife and humans, building upon the cross-taxonomic synthesis initiated during the Natural Resource Damage Assessment. Across the studies, consistency was found in the types of toxic response observed in the different organisms. Impairment of stress responses and adrenal gland function, cardiotoxicity, immune system dysfunction, disruption of blood cells and their function, effects on locomotion, and oxidative damage were observed across taxa. This consistency suggests conservation in the mechanisms of action and disease pathogenesis. From a toxicological perspective, a logical progression of impacts was noted: from molecular and cellular effects that manifest as organ dysfunction, to systemic effects that compromise fitness, growth, reproductive potential, and survival. From a clinical perspective, adverse health effects from DWH oil spill exposure formed a suite of signs/symptomatic responses that at the highest doses/concentrations resulted in multi-organ system failure.

Partial pressure of oxygen in adipose tissue and its relationship with fatness in a natural animal model of extreme fat deposition, the grey seal.

Excessive adiposity is associated with altered oxygen tension and comorbidities in humans. In contrast, marine mammals have high adiposity with no apparent detrimental effects. However, partial pressure of oxygen (Po2 ) in their subcutaneous adipose tissue (blubber) and its relationship with fatness have not been reported. We measured Po2 and temperature at different blubber depths in 12 healthy juvenile grey seals. Fatness was estimated from blubber thickness and morphometric parameters. Simultaneously, we monitored breathing pattern; heart rate and arterial blood saturation with a pulse oximeter; and relative changes in total hemoglobin, deoxyhemoglobin, and oxyhemoglobin in blubber capillaries using near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) as proxies for local oxygenation changes. Blubber Po2 ranged from 14.5 to 71.4 mmHg (39.2 ± 14.1 mmHg), which is similar to values reported in other species. Blubber Po2 was strongly and negatively associated with fatness (LME: p < 0.0001, R2marginal = 0.53, R2conditional = 0.64, n = 10), but not with blubber depth. No other parameters explained variability in Po2 , suggesting arterial blood and local oxygen delivery did not vary within and between measurements. The fall in blubber Po2 with increased fatness in seals is consistent with other animal models of rapid fat deposition. However, the Po2  levels at which blubber becomes hypoxic and consequences of low blubber Po2 for its health and function, particularly in very fat individuals, remain unknown. How seals avoid detrimental effects of low oxygen tension in adipose tissue, despite their high and fluctuating adiposity, is a fruitful avenue to explore.

Toxins from harmful algae in fish from Scottish coastal waters.

Harmful algal bloom events are increasing in a number of water bodies around the world with significant economic impacts on the aquaculture, fishing and tourism industries. As well as their potential impacts on human health, toxin exposure from harmful algal blooms (HABs) has resulted in widespread morbidity and mortality in marine life, including top marine predators. There is therefore a need for an improved understanding of the trophic transfer, and persistence of toxins in marine food webs. For the first time, the concentrations of two toxin groups of commercial and environmental importance, domoic acid (DA) and saxitoxin (including Paralytic Shellfish Toxin (PST) analogues), were measured in the viscera of 40 different fish species caught in Scotland between February and November, 2012 to 2019. Overall, fish had higher concentrations of DA compared to PSTs, with a peak in the summer / autumn months. Whole fish concentrations were highest in pelagic species including Atlantic mackerel and herring, key forage fish for marine predators including seals, cetaceans and seabirds. The highest DA concentrations were measured along the east coast of Scotland and in Orkney. PSTs showed highest concentrations in early summer, consistent with phytoplankton bloom timings. The detection of multiple toxins in such a range of demersal, pelagic and benthic fish prey species suggests that both the fish, and by extension, piscivorous marine predators, experience multiple routes of toxin exposure. Risk assessment models to understand the impacts of exposure to HAB toxins on marine predators therefore need to consider how chronic, low-dose exposure to multiple toxins, as well as acute exposure during a bloom, could lead to potential long-term health effects ultimately contributing to mortalities. The potential synergistic, neurotoxic and physiological effects of long-term exposure to multiple toxins require investigation in order to appropriately assess the risks of HAB toxins to fish as well as their predators.

Unlocking the Role of a Genital Herpesvirus, Otarine Herpesvirus 1, in California Sea Lion Cervical Cancer.

Urogenital carcinoma in California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) is the most common cancer of marine mammals. Primary tumors occur in the cervix, vagina, penis, or prepuce and aggressively metastasize resulting in death. This cancer has been strongly associated with a sexually transmitted herpesvirus, otarine herpesvirus 1 (OtHV1), but the virus has been detected in genital tracts of sea lions without cancer and a causative link has not been established. To determine if OtHV1 has a role in causing urogenital carcinoma we sequenced the viral genome, quantified viral load from cervical tissue from sea lions with (n = 95) and without (n = 163) urogenital carcinoma, and measured viral mRNA expression using in situ mRNA hybridization (Basescope®) to quantify and identify the location of OtHV1 mRNA expression. Of the 95 sea lions diagnosed with urogenital carcinoma, 100% were qPCR positive for OtHV1, and 36% of the sea lions with a normal cervix were positive for the virus. The non-cancer OtHV1 positive cases had significantly lower viral loads in their cervix compared to the cervices from sea lions with urogenital carcinoma. The OtHV1 genome had several genes similar to the known oncogenes, and RNA in situ hybridization demonstrated high OtHV1 mRNA expression within the carcinoma lesions but not in normal cervical epithelium. The high viral loads, high mRNA expression of OtHV1 in the cervical tumors, and the presence of suspected OtHV1 oncogenes support the hypothesis that OtHV1 plays a significant role in the development of sea lion urogenital carcinoma.

Predicting consequences of POP-induced disruption of blubber glucose uptake, mass gain rate and thyroid hormone levels for weaning mass in grey seal pups.

Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are endocrine disruptors that alter adipose tissue development, regulation and function. Top marine predators are particularly vulnerable because they possess large fat stores that accumulate POPs. However, links between endocrine or adipose tissue function disruption and whole animal energetics have rarely been investigated. We predicted the impact of alterations to blubber metabolic characteristics and circulating thyroid hormone (TH) levels associated with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) on suckling mass gain and weaning mass in wild grey seal pups. Glucose uptake by inner blubber was a strong predictor of whole animal mass gain rate, which in turn, resulted in heavier weaning mass. Weaning mass was predicted to increase by 3.7 ± 1.59 (sem) %, through increased mass gain rate, in the absence of the previously reported suppressive effect of dioxin-like PCB (DL-PCBs) on blubber glucose uptake. PBDEs were, conversely, associated with faster mass gain. Alleviation of this effect was predicted to reduce weaning mass by 6.02 ± 1.86% (sem). To better predict POPs effects on energy balance, it is crucial to determine if and how PBDEs promote mass gain in grey seal pups. Weaning mass was negatively related to total T3 (TT3) levels. A 20% (range = 9.3-31.7%) reduction in TT3 by DL-PCBs partially overcame the effect of DL-PCB -mediated reduction in blubber glucose uptake. Overall, DL-PCBs were thus predicted to reduce weaning mass by 1.86 ± 1.60%. Organohalogen impacts on whole-animal energy balance in grey seal pups appear to partially offset each other through opposing effects on different mechanisms. POP effects were generally minor, but the largest POP-induced reductions in weaning mass were predicted to occur in pups that were already small. Since weaning mass is positively related to first-year survival, POPs may disproportionately affect smaller individuals, and could continue to have population-level impacts even when levels are relatively low compared to historical values. Our findings show how in vitro experiments combined with measurements in vivo can help elucidate mechanisms that underpin energy balance regulation and help to quantify the magnitude of disruptive effects by contaminants and other stressors in wildlife.

Aerial photogrammetry and tag-derived tissue density reveal patterns of lipid-store body condition of humpback whales on their feeding grounds.

Monitoring the body condition of free-ranging marine mammals at different life-history stages is essential to understand their ecology as they must accumulate sufficient energy reserves for survival and reproduction. However, assessing body condition in free-ranging marine mammals is challenging. We cross-validated two independent approaches to estimate the body condition of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) at two feeding grounds in Canada and Norway: animal-borne tags (n = 59) and aerial photogrammetry (n = 55). Whales that had a large length-standardized projected area in overhead images (i.e. whales looked fatter) had lower estimated tissue body density (TBD) (greater lipid stores) from tag data. Linking both measurements in a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the true underlying (hidden) tissue body density (uTBD), we found uTBD was lower (-3.5 kg m-3) in pregnant females compared to adult males and resting females, while in lactating females it was higher (+6.0 kg m-3). Whales were more negatively buoyant (+5.0 kg m-3) in Norway than Canada during the early feeding season, possibly owing to a longer migration from breeding areas. While uTBD decreased over the feeding season across life-history traits, whale tissues remained negatively buoyant (1035.3 ± 3.8 kg m-3) in the late feeding season. This study adds confidence to the effectiveness of these independent methods to estimate the body condition of free-ranging whales.

Declining reproductive success in the Gulf of St. Lawrence's humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) reflects ecosystem shifts on their feeding grounds.

Climate change has resulted in physical and biological changes in the world's oceans. How the effects of these changes are buffered by top predator populations, and therefore how much plasticity lies at the highest trophic levels, are largely unknown. Here endocrine profiling, longitudinal observations of known individuals over 15 years between 2004 and 2018, and environmental data are combined to examine how the reproductive success of a top marine predator is being affected by ecosystem change. The Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada, is a major summer feeding ground for humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in the North Atlantic. Blubber biopsy samples (n = 185) of female humpback whales were used to investigate variation in pregnancy rates through the quantification of progesterone. Annual pregnancy rates showed considerable variability, with no overall change detected over the study. However, a total of 457 photo-identified adult female sightings records with/without calves were collated, and showed that annual calving rates declined significantly. The probability of observing cow-calf pairs was related to favourable environmental conditions in the previous year; measured by herring spawning stock biomass, Calanus spp. abundance, overall copepod abundance and phytoplankton bloom magnitude. Approximately 39% of identified pregnancies were unsuccessful over the 15 years, and the average annual pregnancy rate was higher than the average annual calving rate at ~37% and ~23% respectively. Together, these data suggest that the declines in reproductive success could be, at least in part, the result of females being unable to accumulate the energy reserves necessary to maintain pregnancy and/or meet the energetic demands of lactation in years of poorer prey availability rather than solely an inability to become pregnant. The decline in calving rates over a period of major environmental variability may suggest that this population has limited resilience to such ecosystem change.

Determining pregnancy status in harbour seals using progesterone concentrations in blood and blubber.

Pregnancy status in harbour seals can be estimated from concentrations of progesterone in blubber as well as in blood samples, which are significantly higher in pregnant than non-pregnant animals. This study investigated the accuracy of estimating pregnancy rates using samples from live-captured and released harbour seals from three regions around Scotland, coupled with observed pregnancy outcomes. Concentrations of progesterone in blood (plasma) and blubber were obtained during the capture of animals early in the year (February to May). Individual animals were identified from the unique markings on their pelage, with a proportion (n = 51) of females re-sighted during the subsequent breeding season and the reproductive outcomes determined (pregnant or possibly non-pregnant) during observations from long-term photo-identification studies. Generalised linear models with a binomial link function were fitted to training (60% of the data) and test datasets (40% of the data) to estimate pregnancy status from progesterone concentrations in blubber, plasma or both, and a received operating curves (ROC) approach was used to evaluate the performance of each classifier. The accuracy for the plasma concentrations was 85% with a high classification performance (as estimated from an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.82). The Youden method to determine the cut-point (threshold) and bootstrapping the training dataset resulted in a cut-point of 58 ng ml-1 (95th percentiles, 25-102 ng ml-1). For blubber, the accuracy was 77% (AUC = 0.86) with an optimal cut-point of 56 ng g-1 (95th percentiles, 26-223 ng g-1). In the combined analysis (both blubber and plasma), the accuracy was 87.5% (AUC 0.81) with the cut-points of 72 ng ml-1 (95th percentiles, 25-103 ng ml-1) in plasma and 56 ng g-1 (95th percentiles, 26-223 ng g-1) in blubber. These thresholds were then used to estimate the pregnancy proportions among adult females at the three study sites, including those that were not included in the photo-id studies. Proportions were high at all sites, (63%-100%) regardless of which matrices were used and were not statistically significantly different from each other but suggested that analysing concentrations in both sample matrices would minimise the uncertainty.

Perturbation drives changing metapopulation dynamics in a top marine predator.

Metapopulation theory assumes a balance between local decays/extinctions and local growth/new colonisations. Here we investigate whether recent population declines across part of the UK harbour seal range represent normal metapopulation dynamics or are indicative of perturbations potentially threatening the metapopulation viability, using 20 years of population trends, location tracking data (n = 380), and UK-wide, multi-generational population genetic data (n = 269). First, we use microsatellite data to show that two genetic groups previously identified are distinct metapopulations: northern and southern. Then, we characterize the northern metapopulation dynamics in two different periods, before and after the start of regional declines (pre-/peri-perturbation). We identify source-sink dynamics across the northern metapopulation, with two putative source populations apparently supporting three likely sink populations, and a recent metapopulation-wide disruption of migration coincident with the perturbation. The northern metapopulation appears to be in decay, highlighting that changes in local populations can lead to radical alterations in the overall metapopulation's persistence and dynamics.

Mercury in cetaceans: Exposure, bioaccumulation and toxicity.

The fate and transportation of mercury in the marine environment are driven by a combination of anthropogenic atmospheric and aquatic sources, as well as natural geological inputs. Mercury biomagnifies up the food chain, resulting in the bioaccumulation of toxic concentrations in higher trophic organisms even when concentrations in their habitat remain below the threshold level for direct toxicity. As a result, mercury exposure has been recognised as a health concern for both humans and top marine predators, including cetaceans. There appears to be no overall trend in the global measured concentrations reported in cetaceans between 1975 and 2010, although differences between areas show that the highest concentrations in recent decades have been measured in the tissues of Mediterranean odontocetes. There is increasing concern for the impacts of mercury on the Arctic marine ecosystem with changes in water temperatures, ocean currents, and prey availability, all predicted to affect exposure. The accumulation of mercury in various tissues has been linked to renal and hepatic damage as well as reported neurotoxic, genotoxic, and immunotoxic effects. These effects have been documented through studies on stranded and by-caught cetaceans as well as in vitro cell culture experiments. Demethylation of methylmercury and protection by selenium have been suggested as possible mercury detoxification mechanisms in cetaceans that may explain the very high concentrations measured in tissues of some species with no apparent acute toxicity. Thus, the ratio of selenium to mercury is of importance when aiming to determine the impact of the contaminant load at an individual level. The long-term population level effects of mercury exposure are unknown, and continued monitoring of odontocete populations in particular is advised in order to predict the consequences of mercury uptake on marine food chains in the future.