Variation in colorectal cancer treatment and outcomes in Scotland: real world evidence from national linked administrative health data.

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the fourth most common type of cancer in the United Kingdom and the second leading cause of cancer death. Despite improvements in CRC survival over time, Scotland lags behind its UK and European counterparts. In this study, we carry out an exploratory analysis which aims to provide contemporary, population level evidence on CRC treatment and survival in Scotland. Methods: We conducted a retrospective population-based analysis of adults with incident CRC registered on the Scottish Cancer Registry (Scottish Morbidity Record 06 (SMR06)) between January 2006 and December 2018. The CRC cohort was linked to hospital inpatient (SMR01) and National Records of Scotland (NRS) deaths records allowing a description of their demographic, diagnostic and treatment characteristics. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to explore the demographic and clinical factors associated with all-cause mortality and CRC specific mortality after adjusting for patient and tumour characteristics among people identified as early-stage and treated with surgery. Results: Overall, 32,691 (73%) and 12,184 (27%) patients had a diagnosis of colon and rectal cancer respectively, of whom 55% and 53% were early-stage and treated with surgery. Five year overall survival (CRC specific survival) within this cohort was 72% (82%) and 76% (84%) for patients with colon and rectal cancer respectively. Cox proportional hazards models revealed significant variation in mortality by sex, area-based deprivation and geographic location. Conclusions: In a Scottish population of patients with early-stage CRC treated with surgery, there was significant variation in risk of death, even after accounting for clinical factors and patient characteristics.

Randomised, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial of the effect of the omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) on colorectal cancer recurrence and survival after surgery for resectable liver metastases: EPA for Metastasis Trial 2 (EMT2) study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: There remains an unmet need for safe and cost-effective adjunctive treatment of advanced colorectal cancer (CRC). The omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) is safe, well-tolerated and has anti-inflammatory as well as antineoplastic properties. A phase 2 randomised trial of preoperative EPA free fatty acid 2 g daily in patients undergoing surgery for CRC liver metastasis showed no difference in the primary endpoint (histological tumour proliferation index) compared with placebo. However, the trial demonstrated possible benefit for the prespecified exploratory endpoint of postoperative disease-free survival. Therefore, we tested the hypothesis that EPA treatment, started before liver resection surgery (and continued postoperatively), improves CRC outcomes in patients with CRC liver metastasis. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The EPA for Metastasis Trial 2 trial is a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial of 4 g EPA ethyl ester (icosapent ethyl (IPE; Vascepa)) daily in patients undergoing liver resection surgery for CRC liver metastasis with curative intent. Trial treatment continues for a minimum of 2 years and maximum of 4 years, with 6 monthly assessments, including quality of life outcomes, as well as annual clinical record review after the trial intervention. The primary endpoint is CRC progression-free survival. Key secondary endpoints are overall survival, as well as the safety and tolerability of IPE. A minimum 388 participants are estimated to provide 247 CRC progression events during minimum 2-year follow-up, allowing detection of an HR of 0.7 in favour of IPE, with a power of 80% at the 5% (two sided) level of significance, assuming drop-out of 15%. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical and health research authority approval was obtained in January 2018. All data will be collected by 2025. Full trial results will be published in 2026. Secondary analyses of health economic data, biomarker studies and other translational work will be published subsequently. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03428477.

Evaluation of the association of area-level socioeconomic deprivation and breast cancer recurrence by oestrogen receptor subtypes in Scotland.

BACKGROUND: Women from socioeconomically deprived areas have lower breast cancer (BC) incidence rates for screen-detected oestrogen receptor (ER) + tumours and higher mortality for select tumour subtypes. We aimed to determine if ipsilateral breast cancer recurrence (IBR) differs by Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) quintile and tumour subtype in Scotland. METHODS: Patient data for primary invasive BC diagnosed in 2007-2008 in Scotland was analysed. Manual case-note review for 3495 patients from 10 years post-diagnosis was used. To determine the probability of IBR while accounting for the competing risk of death from any cause, cumulative incidence functions stratified by ER subtype and surgery were plotted. Multivariable Cox Proportional Hazards models were used to estimate the association of SIMD accounting for other predictors of IBR. RESULTS: Among 2819 ER + tumours, 423 patients had a recurrence and 438 died. SIMD was related to death (p = 0.018) with the most deprived more likely to have died in the 10-year period (17.7% vs. 12.9%). We found no significant differences by SIMD in prognostic tumour characteristics (grade, TNM stage, treatment, screen-detection) or risk of IBR. Among 676 patients diagnosed with ER- tumours, 105 died and 185 had a recurrence. We found no significant differences in prognostic tumour characteristics by SIMD except screen detection with the most deprived more likely than the least to have their tumours detected from screening (46.9% vs. 28%, p = 0.03). Among patients with ER- tumours, 50% had mastectomy and the most deprived had increased 5-year IBR risk compared to the least deprived (HR 3.03 [1.41-6.53]). CONCLUSIONS: IBR is not a major contributor to mortality differences by SIMD for the majority of BC patients in our study. The lack of inequities in IBR are likely due to standardised treatment protocols and access to healthcare. The association with socioeconomic deprivation and recurrence for ER- tumours requires further study.

Feasibility of comparing medical management and surgery (with neurosurgery or stereotactic radiosurgery) with medical management alone in people with symptomatic brain cavernoma - protocol for the Cavernomas: A Randomised Effectiveness (CARE) pilot trial.

INTRODUCTION: The top research priority for cavernoma, identified by a James Lind Alliance Priority setting partnership was 'Does treatment (with neurosurgery or stereotactic radiosurgery) or no treatment improve outcome for people diagnosed with a cavernoma?' This pilot randomised controlled trial (RCT) aims to determine the feasibility of answering this question in a main phase RCT. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will perform a pilot phase, parallel group, pragmatic RCT involving approximately 60 children or adults with mental capacity, resident in the UK or Ireland, with an unresected symptomatic brain cavernoma. Participants will be randomised by web-based randomisation 1:1 to treatment with medical management and with surgery (neurosurgery or stereotactic radiosurgery) versus medical management alone, stratified by prerandomisation preference for type of surgery. In addition to 13 feasibility outcomes, the primary clinical outcome is symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage or new persistent/progressive focal neurological deficit measured at 6 monthly intervals. An integrated QuinteT Recruitment Intervention (QRI) evaluates screening logs, audio recordings of recruitment discussions, and interviews with recruiters and patients/parents/carers to identify and address barriers to participation. A Patient Advisory Group has codesigned the study and will oversee its progress. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved by the Yorkshire and The Humber-Leeds East Research Ethics Committee (21/YH/0046). We will submit manuscripts to peer-reviewed journals, describing the findings of the QRI and the Cavernomas: A Randomised Evaluation (CARE) pilot trial. We will present at national specialty meetings. We will disseminate a plain English summary of the findings of the CARE pilot trial to participants and public audiences with input from, and acknowledgement of, the Patient Advisory Group. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN41647111.

Female Sex but Not Oestrogen Receptor Expression Predicts Survival in Advanced Gastroesophageal Adenocarcinoma-A Post-hoc Analysis of the GO2 Trial.

Gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma is a disease of older adults that is associated with a very poor prognosis. It is less common and has better outcomes in females. The reason for this is unknown but may relate to signalling via the main oestrogen receptors (ER) α and ß. In this study, we sought to investigate this using the GO2 clinical trial patient cohort. GO2 recruited older and/or frail patients with advanced gastroesophageal cancer. Immunohistochemistry was performed on tumour samples from 194 patients. The median age of the population was 76 years (range 52-90), and 25.3% were female. Only one (0.5%) tumour sample was positive for ERα, compared to 70.6% for ERß expression. There was no survival impact according to ERß expression level. Female sex and younger age were associated with lower ERß expression. Female sex was also associated with improved overall survival. To our knowledge, this is the largest study worldwide of ER expression in a cohort of patients with advanced gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma. It is also unique, given the age of the population. We have demonstrated that female sex is associated with better survival outcomes with palliative chemotherapy but that this does not appear to be related to ER IHC expression. The differing ER expression according to age supports the concept of a different disease biology with age.

Variation in hospital cost trajectories at the end of life by age, multimorbidity and cancer type.

Background: Approximately thirty thousand people in Scotland are diagnosed with cancer annually, of whom a third live less than one year. The timing, nature and value of hospital-based healthcare for patients with advanced cancer are not well understood. The study's aim was to describe the timing and nature of hospital-based healthcare use and associated costs in the last year of life for patients with a cancer diagnosis. Methods: We undertook a Scottish population-wide administrative data linkage study of hospital-based healthcare use for individuals with a cancer diagnosis, who died aged 60 and over between 2012 and 2017. Hospital admissions and length of stay (LOS), as well as the number and nature of outpatient and day case appointments were analysed. Generalised linear models were used to adjust costs for age, gender, socioeconomic deprivation status, rural-urban (RU) status and comorbidity. Results: The study included 85,732 decedents with a cancer diagnosis. For 64,553 (75.3%) of them, cancer was the primary cause of death. Mean age at death was 80.01 (SD 8.15) years. The mean number of inpatient stays in the last year of life was 5.88 (SD 5.68), with a mean LOS of 7 days. Admission rates rose sharply in the last month of life. One year adjusted and unadjusted costs decreased with increasing age. A higher comorbidity burden was associated with higher costs. Major cost differences were present between cancer types. Conclusions: People in Scotland in their last year of life with cancer are high users of secondary care. Hospitalisation accounts for a high proportion of costs, particularly in the last month of life. Further research is needed to examine triggers for hospitalisations and to identify influenceable reasons for unwarranted variation in hospital use among different cancer cohorts.

Multinational Analysis of Estimated Health Care Costs Related to Extended-Interval Fixed Dosing of Checkpoint Inhibitors.

Importance: New dosing options for immune checkpoint inhibitors have recently been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), including fixed dosing with extended intervals. Although the dose intensity appears the same, there is expected to be some waste with extended-interval dosing, as some drug remains in the bloodstream once a decision to stop treatment is made. The economic impact of extended-interval fixed dosing is unknown compared with standard-interval fixed dosing. Objective: To analyze the potential health care costs of using extended-interval fixed dosing instead of standard-interval fixed dosing. Design, Setting, and Participants: This economic evaluation used a pharmacoeconomic model to simulate 2 cohorts of patients with platinum-resistant metastatic urothelial cancer receiving pembrolizumab as second-line therapy at different dosing intervals using 2020 pricing data. Data were analyzed from 2020 to 2022. Exposures: The simulated patients received FDA-approved regimens of either 200 mg every 3 weeks or 400 mg every 6 weeks. Main Outcomes and Measures: The progression-free survival curve from the KEYNOTE-045 trial was used to estimate treatment duration. Drug, imaging, and administration costs were included in analyses. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess how different imaging frequencies would affect the model results. The potential overall costs of using the 2 different dosing strategies were assessed. The base case was set in the US, while sensitivity analyses were set in several other countries. Results: In the base case analysis, dosing every 6 weeks instead of every 3 weeks resulted in an estimated 8.9% increase in pembrolizumab costs for the health care payer. Accounting for a decrease in infusion costs would result in an estimated net additional cost of $7483 per patient in the US (7.9% cost increase). In the US, this would amount to an increase of approximately $28 million annually for health care payers. Similar percentages in cost estimate increases were found for health care payers around the world, such as in Israel, where the net additional cost would be $5491 per patient. Conclusions and Relevance: This economic evaluation assessed and quantified the potential increased costs related to extended-interval fixed dosing of pembrolizumab. The model method could be applied to other diseases and other drugs for which there has been a movement toward extended-interval dosing. Results may differ in other diseases owing to differing disease courses and patient profiles.

The Scottish COVID Cancer Immunity Prevalence Study: A Longitudinal Study of SARS-CoV-2 Immune Response in Patients Receiving Anti-Cancer Treatment.

BACKGROUND: Cancer and anti-cancer treatment (ACT) may be risk factors for severe SARS-CoV-2 infection and limited vaccine efficacy. Long-term longitudinal studies are needed to evaluate these risks. The Scottish COVID cancer immunity prevalence (SCCAMP) study characterizes the incidence and outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination in patients with solid tumors undergoing ACT. This preliminary analysis includes 766 patients recruited since May 2020. METHODS: Patients with solid-organ cancers attending secondary care for active ACT consented to the collection of routine electronic health record data and serial blood samples over 12 months. Blood samples were tested for total SARS-CoV-2 antibody. RESULTS: A total of 766 participants were recruited between May 28, 2020 and October 31, 2021. Most received cytotoxic chemotherapy (79%). Among the participants, 48 (6.3%) were tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by PCR. Infection rates were unaffected by ACT, largely aligning with the local population. Mortality proportion was not higher with a recent positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR (10.4% vs 10.6%). Multivariate analysis revealed lower infection rates in vaccinated patients regardless of chemotherapy (HR 0.307 [95% CI, 0.144-0.6548]) or immunotherapy (HR 0.314 [95% CI, 0.041-2.367]) treatment. A total of 96.3% of patients successfully raised SARS-CoV-2 antibodies after >2 vaccines. This was independent of the treatment type. CONCLUSION: This is the largest on-going longitudinal real-world dataset of patients undergoing ACT during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. This preliminary analysis demonstrates that patients with solid tumors undergoing ACT have high protection from SARS-CoV-2 infection following COVID-19 vaccination. The SCCAMP study will evaluate long-term COVID-19 antibody trends, focusing on specific ACTs and patient subgroups.

Studying the Long-term Impact of COVID-19 in Kids (SLICK). Healthcare use and costs in children and young people following community-acquired SARS-CoV-2 infection: protocol for an observational study using linked primary and secondary routinely collected healthcare data from England, Scotland and Wales.

INTRODUCTION: SARS-CoV-2 infection rarely causes hospitalisation in children and young people (CYP), but mild or asymptomatic infections are common. Persistent symptoms following infection have been reported in CYP but subsequent healthcare use is unclear. We aim to describe healthcare use in CYP following community-acquired SARS-CoV-2 infection and identify those at risk of ongoing healthcare needs. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will use anonymised individual-level, population-scale national data linking demographics, comorbidities, primary and secondary care use and mortality between 1 January 2019 and 1 May 2022. SARS-CoV-2 test data will be linked from 1 January 2020 to 1 May 2022. Analyses will use Trusted Research Environments: OpenSAFELY in England, Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank in Wales and Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19 in Scotland (EAVE-II). CYP aged ≥4 and <18 years who underwent SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcription PCR (RT-PCR) testing between 1 January 2020 and 1 May 2021 and those untested CYP will be examined.The primary outcome measure is cumulative healthcare cost over 12 months following SARS-CoV-2 testing, stratified into primary or secondary care, and physical or mental healthcare. We will estimate the burden of healthcare use attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infections in the 12 months after testing using a matched cohort study of RT-PCR positive, negative or untested CYP matched on testing date, with adjustment for confounders. We will identify factors associated with higher healthcare needs in the 12 months following SARS-CoV-2 infection using an unmatched cohort of RT-PCR positive CYP. Multivariable logistic regression and machine learning approaches will identify risk factors for high healthcare use and characterise patterns of healthcare use post infection. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved by the South-Central Oxford C Health Research Authority Ethics Committee (13/SC/0149). Findings will be preprinted and published in peer-reviewed journals. Analysis code and code lists will be available through public GitHub repositories and OpenCodelists with meta-data via HDR-UK Innovation Gateway.

Reproductive history differs by molecular subtypes of breast cancer among women aged ≤ 50 years in Scotland diagnosed 2009-2016: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The aetiology of breast cancers diagnosed ≤ 50 years of age remains unclear. We aimed to compare reproductive risk factors between molecular subtypes of breast cancer, thereby suggesting possible aetiologic clues, using routinely collected cancer registry and maternity data in Scotland. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study of 4108 women aged ≤ 50 years with primary breast cancer diagnosed between 2009 and 2016 linked to maternity data. Molecular subtypes of breast cancer were defined using immunohistochemistry (IHC) tumour markers, oestrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2), and tumour grade. Age-adjusted polytomous logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association of number of births, age at first birth and time since last birth with IHC-defined breast cancer subtypes. Luminal A-like was the reference compared to luminal B-like (HER2-), luminal B-like (HER2+), HER2-overexpressed and triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). RESULTS: Mean (SD) for number of births, age at first birth and time since last birth was 1.4 (1.2) births, 27.2 (6.1) years and 11.0 (6.8) years, respectively. Luminal A-like was the most common subtype (40%), while HER2-overexpressed and TNBC represented 5% and 15% of cases, respectively. Larger numbers of births were recorded among women with HER2-overexpressed and TNBC compared with luminal A-like tumours (> 3 vs 0 births, OR 1.87, 95%CI 1.18-2.96; OR 1.44, 95%CI 1.07-1.94, respectively). Women with their most recent birth > 10 years compared to < 2 years were less likely to have TNBC tumours compared to luminal A-like (OR 0.63, 95%CI 0.41-0.97). We found limited evidence for differences by subtype with age at first birth. CONCLUSION: Number of births and time since last birth differed by molecular subtypes of breast cancer among women aged ≤ 50 years. Analyses using linked routine electronic medical records by molecularly defined tumour pathology data can be used to investigate the aetiology and prognosis of cancer.

Survival after breast cancer in women with a subsequent live birth: Influence of age at diagnosis and interval to subsequent pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: There remains a considerable concern among both patients and oncologists that having a live birth (LB) after breast cancer might adversely impact survival. METHODS: analysis of survival in a national cohort of women with breast cancer diagnosed at age 20-39 years between 1981 and 2017 (n = 5181), and subsequent LB using Scottish Cancer Registry and national maternity records. Cases had at least one subsequent LB, each was matched with up to six unexposed cases without subsequent LB, accounting for guaranteed time bias. RESULTS: In 290 women with a LB after diagnosis, overall survival was increased compared to those who did not have a subsequent LB, HR 0.65 (95%CI 0.50-0.85). Women with subsequent LB who had not had a pregnancy before breast cancer showed increased survival (HR 0.56, 0.38-0.82). There was a progressively greater interaction of subsequent LB with survival with younger age, thus for women aged 20-25 years, HR 0.30 (0.12-0.74) vs. those aged 36-39, HR 0.89 (0.42-1.87). In women with LB within five years of diagnosis, survival was also increased (HR 0.66; 0.49-0.89). Survival following LB was similar to unexposed women by ER status (both positive and negative) and in those known to have been exposed to chemotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis provides further evidence that for the growing number of women who wish to have children after breast cancer, LB does not have a negative impact on overall survival. This finding was confirmed within subgroups, including the youngest women and those not previously pregnant.

Breast cancer incidence and survival in Scotland by socio-economic deprivation and tumour subtype.

BACKGROUND: Women from socio-economically deprived areas are less likely to develop and then to survive breast cancer (BC). Whether associations between deprivation and BC incidence and survival differ by tumour molecular subtypes and mode of detection in Scotland are unknown. METHODS: Data consisted of 62,378 women diagnosed with invasive BC between 2000 and 2016 in Scotland. Incidence rates and time trends were calculated for oestrogen receptor positive (ER+) and negative (ER-) tumours and stratified by the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) quintiles and screening status. SIMD is an area-based measure derived across seven domains: income, employment, education, health, access to services, crime and housing. We calculated adjusted hazard ratios (aHR [95% confidence intervals]) for BC death by immunohistochemical surrogates of molecular subtypes for the most versus the least deprived quintile. We adjusted for mode of detection and other confounders. RESULTS: In Scotland, screen-detected ER+tumour incidence increased over time, particularly in the least deprived quintile [Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) = 2.9% with 95% CI from 1.2 to 4.7]. No marked differences were observed for non-screen-detected ER+tumours or ER- tumours by deprivation. BC mortality was higher in the most compared to the least deprived quintile irrespective of ER status (aHR = 1.29 [1.18, 1.41] for ER+ and 1.27 [1.09, 1.47] for ER- tumours). However, deprivation was associated with significantly higher mortality for luminal A and HER2-enriched tumours (aHR = 1.46 [1.13, 1.88] and 2.10 [1.23, 3.59] respectively) but weaker associations for luminal B and TNBC tumours that were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Deprivation is associated with differential BC incidence trends for screen-detected ER+tumours and with higher mortality for select tumour subtypes. Future efforts should evaluate factors that might be associated with reduced survival in deprived populations and monitor progress stratified by tumour subtypes and mode of detection.

The Finding My Way UK Clinical Trial: Adaptation Report and Protocol for a Replication Randomized Controlled Efficacy Trial of a Web-Based Psychological Program to Support Cancer Survivors.

BACKGROUND: Cancer survivors frequently report a range of unmet psychological and supportive care needs; these often continue after treatment has finished and are predictive of psychological distress and poor health-related quality of life. Web-based interventions demonstrate good efficacy in addressing these concerns and are more accessible than face-to-face interventions. Finding My Way (FMW) is a web-based, psycho-educational, and cognitive behavioral therapy intervention for cancer survivors developed in Australia. Previous trials have demonstrated that FMW is acceptable, highly adhered to, and effective in reducing the impact of distress on quality of life while leading to cost savings through health resource use reduction. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to adapt the Australian FMW website for a UK cancer care context and then undertake a single-blinded, randomized controlled trial of FMW UK against a treatment-as-usual waitlist control. METHODS: To an extent, our trial design replicates the existing Australian randomized controlled trial of FMW. Following a comprehensive adaptation of the web resource, we will recruit 294 participants (147 per study arm) from across clinical sites in North West England and North Wales. Participants will have been diagnosed with cancer of any type in the last 6 months, have received anticancer treatment with curative intent, be aged ≥16 years, be proficient in English, and have access to the internet and an active email address. Participants will be identified and recruited through the National Institute for Health Research clinical research network. Measures of distress, quality of life, and health economic outcomes will be collected using a self-report web-based questionnaire at baseline, midtreatment, posttreatment, and both 3- and 6-month follow-up. Quantitative data will be analyzed using intention-to-treat mixed model repeated measures analysis. Embedded semistructured qualitative interviews will probe engagement with, and experiences of using, FMW UK and suggestions for future improvements. RESULTS: The website adaptation work was completed in January 2021. A panel of cancer survivors and health care professionals provided feedback on the test version of FMW UK. Feedback was positive overall, although minor updates were made to website navigation, inclusivity, terminology, and the wording of the Improving Communication and Sexuality and Intimacy content. Recruitment for the clinical trial commenced in April 2021. We aim to report on findings from mid-2023. CONCLUSIONS: Replication studies are an important aspect of the scientific process, particularly in psychological and clinical trial literature, especially in different geographical settings. Before replicating the FMW trial in the UK setting, content updating was required. If FMW UK now replicates Australian findings, we will have identified a novel and cost-effective method of psychosocial care delivery for cancer survivors in the United Kingdom. TRIAL REGISTRATION: International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN) 14317248; https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN14317248. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/31976.

Efficacy of Reduced-Intensity Chemotherapy With Oxaliplatin and Capecitabine on Quality of Life and Cancer Control Among Older and Frail Patients With Advanced Gastroesophageal Cancer: The GO2 Phase 3 Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Older and/or frail patients are underrepresented in landmark cancer trials. Tailored research is needed to address this evidence gap. Objective: The GO2 randomized clinical trial sought to optimize chemotherapy dosing in older and/or frail patients with advanced gastroesophageal cancer, and explored baseline geriatric assessment (GA) as a tool for treatment decision-making. Design, Setting, and Participants: This multicenter, noninferiority, open-label randomized trial took place at oncology clinics in the United Kingdom with nurse-led geriatric health assessment. Patients were recruited for whom full-dose combination chemotherapy was considered unsuitable because of advanced age and/or frailty. Interventions: There were 2 randomizations that were performed: CHEMO-INTENSITY compared oxaliplatin/capecitabine at Level A (oxaliplatin 130 mg/m2 on day 1, capecitabine 625 mg/m2 twice daily on days 1-21, on a 21-day cycle), Level B (doses 0.8 times A), or Level C (doses 0.6 times A). Alternatively, if the patient and clinician agreed the indication for chemotherapy was uncertain, the patient could instead enter CHEMO-BSC, comparing Level C vs best supportive care. Main Outcomes and Measures: First, broad noninferiority of the lower doses vs reference (Level A) was assessed using a permissive boundary of 34 days reduction in progression-free survival (PFS) (hazard ratio, HR = 1.34), selected as acceptable by a forum of patients and clinicians. Then, the patient experience was compared using Overall Treatment Utility (OTU), which combines efficacy, toxic effects, quality of life, and patient value/acceptability. For CHEMO-BSC, the main outcome measure was overall survival. Results: A total of 514 patients entered CHEMO-INTENSITY, of whom 385 (75%) were men and 299 (58%) were severely frail, with median age 76 years. Noninferior PFS was confirmed for Levels B vs A (HR = 1.09 [95% CI, 0.89-1.32]) and C vs A (HR = 1.10 [95% CI, 0.90-1.33]). Level C produced less toxic effects and better OTU than A or B. No subgroup benefited from higher doses: Level C produced better OTU even in younger or less frail patients. A total of 45 patients entered the CHEMO-BSC randomization: overall survival was nonsignificantly longer with chemotherapy: median 6.1 vs 3.0 months (HR = 0.69 [95% CI, 0.32-1.48], P = .34). In multivariate analysis in 522 patients with all variables available, baseline frailty, quality of life, and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio were independently associated with OTU, and can be combined in a model to estimate the probability of different outcomes. Conclusions and Relevance: This phase 3 randomized clinical trial found that reduced-intensity chemotherapy provided a better patient experience without significantly compromising cancer control and should be considered for older and/or frail patients. Baseline geriatric assessment can help predict the utility of chemotherapy but did not identify a group benefiting from higher-dose treatment. Trial Registration: isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN44687907.

Real­world challenge for clinicians treating advanced gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma (Review).

Gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma (GOA) is a disease of older people. Incidence is rising in the developed world and the majority of patients present with advanced disease. Based on clinical trial data, systemic chemotherapy in the advanced setting is associated with improvements in quality of life and survival. However, there is a recognised mismatch between trial populations and the patients encountered in clinical practice in terms of age, comorbidity and fitness. Appropriate patient selection is essential to safely deliver effective treatment. In this narrative review, we discuss the challenges faced by clinicians when assessing real­world patients with advanced GOA for systemic therapy. We also highlight the importance of frailty screening and the current available evidence we can use to guide our management.

Distinct temporal trends in breast cancer incidence from 1997 to 2016 by molecular subtypes: a population-based study of Scottish cancer registry data.

BACKGROUND: We describe temporal trends in breast cancer incidence by molecular subtypes in Scotland because public health prevention programmes, diagnostic and therapeutic services are shaped by differences in tumour biology. METHODS: Population-based cancer registry data on 72,217 women diagnosed with incident primary breast cancer from 1997 to 2016 were analysed. Age-standardised rates (ASR) and age-specific incidence were estimated by tumour subtype after imputing the 8% of missing oestrogen receptor (ER) status. Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort models were used to assess whether significant differences were observed in incidence trends by ER status. RESULTS: Overall, ER-positive tumour incidence increased by 0.4%/year (95% confidence interval (CI): -0.1, 1.0). Among routinely screened women aged 50-69 years, we observed an increase in ASR from 1997 to 2011 (1.6%/year, 95% CI: 1.2-2.1). ER-negative tumour incidence decreased among all ages by 2.5%/year (95% CI: -3.9 to -1.1%) over the study period. Compared with the 1941-1959 birth cohort, women born in 1912-1940 had lower incidence rate ratios (IRR) for ER+ tumours and women born in 1960-1986 had lower IRR for ER- tumours. CONCLUSIONS: Future incidence and survival reporting should be monitored by molecular subtypes to inform clinical planning and cancer control programmes.

Capivasertib Plus Paclitaxel Versus Placebo Plus Paclitaxel As First-Line Therapy for Metastatic Triple-Negative Breast Cancer: The PAKT Trial.

PURPOSE: The phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3K)/AKT signaling pathway is frequently activated in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). The AKT inhibitor capivasertib has shown preclinical activity in TNBC models, and drug sensitivity has been associated with activation of PI3K or AKT and/or deletions of PTEN. The PAKT trial was designed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of adding capivasertib to paclitaxel as first-line therapy for TNBC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized phase II trial recruited women with untreated metastatic TNBC. A total of 140 patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to paclitaxel 90 mg/m2 (days 1, 8, 15) with either capivasertib (400 mg twice daily) or placebo (days 2-5, 9-12, 16-19) every 28 days until disease progression or unacceptable toxicity. The primary end point was progression-free survival (PFS). Secondary end points included overall survival (OS), PFS and OS in the subgroup with PIK3CA/AKT1/PTEN alterations, tumor response, and safety. RESULTS: Median PFS was 5.9 months with capivasertib plus paclitaxel and 4.2 months with placebo plus paclitaxel (hazard ratio [HR], 0.74; 95% CI, 0.50 to 1.08; 1-sided P = .06 [predefined significance level, 1-sided P = .10]). Median OS was 19.1 months with capivasertib plus paclitaxel and 12.6 months with placebo plus paclitaxel (HR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.37 to 0.99; 2-sided P = .04). In patients with PIK3CA/AKT1/PTEN-altered tumors (n = 28), median PFS was 9.3 months with capivasertib plus paclitaxel and 3.7 months with placebo plus paclitaxel (HR, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.11 to 0.79; 2-sided P = .01). The most common grade ≥ 3 adverse events in those treated with capivasertib plus paclitaxel versus placebo plus paclitaxel, respectively, were diarrhea (13% v 1%), infection (4% v 1%), neutropenia (3% v 3%), rash (4% v 0%), and fatigue (4% v 0%). CONCLUSION: Addition of the AKT inhibitor capivasertib to first-line paclitaxel therapy for TNBC resulted in significantly longer PFS and OS. Benefits were more pronounced in patients with PIK3CA/AKT1/PTEN-altered tumors. Capivasertib warrants further investigation for treatment of TNBC.

Toward a Framework for Outcome-Based Analytical Performance Specifications: A Methodology Review of Indirect Methods for Evaluating the Impact of Measurement Uncertainty on Clinical Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: For medical tests that have a central role in clinical decision-making, current guidelines advocate outcome-based analytical performance specifications. Given that empirical (clinical trial-style) analyses are often impractical or unfeasible in this context, the ability to set such specifications is expected to rely on indirect studies to calculate the impact of test measurement uncertainty on downstream clinical, operational, and economic outcomes. Currently, however, a lack of awareness and guidance concerning available alternative indirect methods is limiting the production of outcome-based specifications. Therefore, our aim was to review available indirect methods and present an analytical framework to inform future outcome-based performance goals. CONTENT: A methodology review consisting of database searches and extensive citation tracking was conducted to identify studies using indirect methods to incorporate or evaluate the impact of test measurement uncertainty on downstream outcomes (including clinical accuracy, clinical utility, and/or costs). Eighty-two studies were identified, most of which evaluated the impact of imprecision and/or bias on clinical accuracy. A common analytical framework underpinning the various methods was identified, consisting of 3 key steps: (a) calculation of "true" test values; (b) calculation of measured test values (incorporating uncertainty); and (c) calculation of the impact of discrepancies between (a) and (b) on specified outcomes. A summary of the methods adopted is provided, and key considerations are discussed. CONCLUSIONS: Various approaches are available for conducting indirect assessments to inform outcome-based performance specifications. This study provides an overview of methods and key considerations to inform future studies and research in this area.