Institutional complexity emerges from socioecological complexity in small-scale human societies.

Human lifestyles vary enormously over time and space and so understanding the origins of this diversity has always been a central focus of anthropology. A major source of this cultural variation is the variation in institutional complexity: the cultural packages of rules, norms, ontologies and expectations passed down through societies across generations. In this article, we study the emergence of institutions in small-scale societies. There are two primary schools of thought. The first is that institutions emerge top-down as rules are imposed by elites on their societies in order to gain asymmetrical access to power, resources and influence over others through coercion. The second is that institutions emerge bottom-up to facilitate interactions within populations as they seek collective solutions to adaptive problems. Here, we use Bayesian networks to infer the causal structure of institutional complexity in 172 small-scale societies across ethnohistoric western North America reflecting the wide diversity of indigenous lifestyles across this vast region immediately prior to European colonization. Our results suggest that institutional complexity emerges from underlying socioecological complexity because institutions are solutions to coordination problems in more complex environments where human-environment interactions require increased management.

Remote sensing evidence for population growth of isolated indigenous societies in Amazonia.

Isolated indigenous societies who actively avoid sustained peaceful contact with the outside world are critically endangered. Last year, "Tanaru", the lone surviving man of his tribe for at least 35 years, died in Southwest Amazonia, marking the latest cultural extinction event in a long history of massacres, enslavement, and epidemics. Yet in the upper reaches of the Amazon Basin, dozens of resilient isolated tribes still manage to survive. Remote sensing is a reliable method of monitoring the population dynamics of uncontacted populations by quantifying the area cleared for gardens and villages, along with the fire detections associated with the burning of those clearings. Remote sensing also provides a method to document the number of residential structures and village fissioning. Only with these longitudinal assessments can we better evaluate the current no-contact policies by the United Nations and governments, along with the prospects for the long-term survival of isolated tribes. While the world's largest isolated indigenous metapopulation, Pano speakers in Acre, Brazil, appears to be thriving, other smaller isolated populations disconnected from metapopulations continue to be extremely vulnerable to external threats. Our applied anthropological conservation approach is to provide analyses of publicly available remote sensing datasets to help inform policies that enhance the survival and well-being of isolated cultural groups.

Predicting the geographic distribution of ancient Amazonian archaeological sites with machine learning.

Amazonia has as least two major centers of ancient human social complexity, but the full geographic extents of these centers remain uncertain. Across the southern rim of Amazonia, over 1,000 earthwork sites comprised of fortified settlements, mound villages, and ditched enclosures with geometric designs known as geoglyphs have been discovered. Qualitatively distinct and densely located along the lower stretches of major river systems and the Atlantic coast are Amazonian Dark Earth sites (ADEs) with deep anthropogenic soils enriched by long-term human habitation. Models predicting the geographic extents of earthworks and ADEs can assist in their discovery and preservation and help answer questions about the full degree of indigenous landscape modifications across Amazonia. We classify earthworks versus ADEs versus other non-earthwork/non-ADE archaeological sites with multi-class machine learning algorithms using soils, climate, and distances to rivers of different types and sizes as geospatial predictors. Model testing is done with spatial cross-validation, and the best model at the optimal spatial scale of 1 km has an Area Under the Curve of 0.91. Our predictive model has led to the discovery of 13 new geoglyphs, and it pinpoints specific areas with high probabilities of undiscovered archaeological sites that are currently hidden by rainforests. The limited, albeit impressive, predicted extents of earthworks and ADEs means that other non-ADE/non-earthwork sites are expected to predominate most of Western and Northern Amazonia.

Understanding hunter-gatherer cultural evolution needs network thinking.

Hunter-gatherers past and present live in complex societies, and the structure of these can be assessed using social networks. We outline how the integration of new evidence from cultural evolution experiments, computer simulations, ethnography, and archaeology open new research horizons to understand the role of social networks in cultural evolution.

Diversity begets diversity in mammal species and human cultures.

Across the planet the biogeographic distribution of human cultural diversity tends to correlate positively with biodiversity. In this paper we focus on the biogeographic distribution of mammal species and human cultural diversity. We show that not only are these forms of diversity similarly distributed in space, but they both scale superlinearly with environmental production. We develop theory that explains that as environmental productivity increases the ecological kinetics of diversity increases faster than expected because more complex environments are also more interactive. Using biogeographic databases of the global distributions of mammal species and human cultures we test a series of hypotheses derived from this theory and find support for each. For both mammals and cultures, we show that (1) both forms of diversity increase exponentially with ecological kinetics; (2) the kinetics of diversity is faster than the kinetics of productivity; (3) diversity scales superlinearly with environmental productivity; and (4) the kinetics of diversity is faster in increasingly productive environments. This biogeographic convergence is particularly striking because while the dynamics of biological and cultural evolution may be similar in principle the underlying mechanisms and time scales are very different. However, a common currency underlying all forms of diversity is ecological kinetics; the temperature-dependent fluxes of energy and biotic interactions that sustain all forms of life at all levels of organization. Diversity begets diversity in mammal species and human cultures because ecological kinetics drives superlinear scaling with environmental productivity.

Scaling human sociopolitical complexity.

Human societies exhibit a diversity of social organizations that vary widely in size, structure, and complexity. Today, human sociopolitical complexity ranges from stateless small-scale societies of a few hundred individuals to complex states of millions, most of this diversity evolving only over the last few hundred years. Understanding how sociopolitical complexity evolved over time and space has always been a central focus of the social sciences. Yet despite this long-term interest, a quantitative understanding of how sociopolitical complexity varies across cultures is not well developed. Here we use scaling analysis to examine the statistical structure of a global sample of over a thousand human societies across multiple levels of sociopolitical complexity. First, we show that levels of sociopolitical complexity are self-similar as adjacent levels of jurisdictional hierarchy see a four-fold increase in population size, a two-fold increase in geographic range, and therefore a doubling of population density. Second, we show how this self-similarity leads to the scaling of population size and geographic range. As societies increase in complexity population density is reconfigured in space and quantified by scaling parameters. However, there is considerable overlap in population metrics across all scales suggesting that while more complex societies tend to have larger and denser populations, larger and denser populations are not necessarily more complex.

The interpretation of urban scaling analysis in time.

Scaling is a general analytical framework used by many disciplines-from physics to biology and the social sciences-to characterize how population-averaged properties of a collective vary with its size. The observation of scale invariance over some range identifies general system types, be they ideal gases, ecosystems or cities. The use of scaling in the analysis of cities quantifies many of their arguably fundamental general characteristics, especially their capacity to create interrelated economies of scale in infrastructure and increasing returns to scale in socio-economic activities. However, the measurement of these effects, and the relationship of observable parameters to theory, hinge on how scaling analysis is used empirically. Here, we show how two equivalent approaches to urban scaling-cross-sectional and temporal-lead to the measurement of different mixtures of the same fundamental parameters describing pure scale and pure temporal phenomena. Specifically, temporal exponents are sensitive to the intensive growth of urban quantities and to circumstances when population growth vanishes, leading to instabilities and infinite divergences. These spurious effects are avoided in cross-sectional scaling, which is more common and closer to theory in terms of quantitative testable expectations for its parameters.

Nonlinear diversification rates of linguistic phylogenies over the Holocene.

The expansion of the human species out of Africa in the Pleistocene, and the subsequent development of agriculture in the Holocene, resulted in waves of linguistic diversification and replacement across the planet. Analogous to the growth of populations or the speciation of biological organisms, languages diversify over time to form phylogenies of language families. However, the dynamics of this diversification process are unclear. Bayesian methods applied to lexical and phonetic data have created dated linguistic phylogenies for 18 language families encompassing ~3,000 of the world's ~7,000 extant languages. In this paper we use these phylogenies to quantify how fast languages expand and diversify through time both within and across language families. The overall diversification rate of languages in our sample is ~0.001 yr-1 (or a doubling time of ~700 yr) over the last 6,000 years with evidence for nonlinear dynamics in language diversification rates over time, where both within and across language families, diversity initially increases rapidly and then slows. The expansion, evolution, and diversification of languages as they spread around the planet was a non-constant process.

Machine learning with remote sensing data to locate uncontacted indigenous villages in Amazonia.

BACKGROUND: The world's last uncontacted indigenous societies in Amazonia have only intermittent and often hostile interactions with the outside world. Knowledge of their locations is essential for urgent protection efforts, but their extreme isolation, small populations, and semi-nomadic lifestyles make this a challenging task. METHODS: Remote sensing technology with Landsat satellite sensors is a non-invasive methodology to track isolated indigenous populations through time. However, the small-scale nature of the deforestation signature left by uncontacted populations clearing villages and gardens has similarities to those made by contacted indigenous villages. Both contacted and uncontacted indigenous populations often live in proximity to one another making it difficult to distinguish the two in satellite imagery. Here we use machine learning techniques applied to remote sensing data with a training dataset of 500 contacted and 25 uncontacted villages. RESULTS: Uncontacted villages generally have smaller cleared areas, reside at higher elevations, and are farther from populated places and satellite-detected lights at night. A random forest algorithm with an optimally-tuned detection cutoff has a leave-one-out cross-validated sensitivity and specificity of over 98%. A grid search around known uncontacted villages led us to identify three previously-unknown villages using predictions from the random forest model. Our efforts can improve policies toward isolated populations by providing better near real-time knowledge of their locations and movements in relation to encroaching loggers, settlers, and other external threats to their survival.

The ecological and evolutionary energetics of hunter-gatherer residential mobility.

Residential mobility is a key aspect of hunter-gatherer foraging economies and therefore is an issue of central importance in hunter-gatherer studies. Hunter-gatherers vary widely in annual rates of residential mobility. Understanding the sources of this variation has long been of interest to anthropologists and archeologists. The vast majority of hunter-gatherers who are dependent on terrestrial plants and animals move camp multiple times a year because local foraging patches become depleted and food, material, and social resources are heterogeneously distributed through time and space. In some environments, particularly along coasts, where resources are abundant and predictable, hunter-gatherers often become effectively sedentary. But even in these special cases, a central question is how these societies have maintained viable foraging economies while reducing residential mobility to near zero.

The rise of partisanship and super-cooperators in the U.S. House of Representatives.

It is widely reported that partisanship in the United States Congress is at an historic high. Given that individuals are persuaded to follow party lines while having the opportunity and incentives to collaborate with members of the opposite party, our goal is to measure the extent to which legislators tend to form ideological relationships with members of the opposite party. We quantify the level of cooperation, or lack thereof, between Democrat and Republican Party members in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1949-2012. We define a network of over 5 million pairs of representatives, and compare the mutual agreement rates on legislative decisions between two distinct types of pairs: those from the same party and those formed of members from different parties. We find that despite short-term fluctuations, partisanship or non-cooperation in the U.S. Congress has been increasing exponentially for over 60 years with no sign of abating or reversing. Yet, a group of representatives continue to cooperate across party lines despite growing partisanship.

The mortality of companies.

The firm is a fundamental economic unit of contemporary human societies. Studies on the general quantitative and statistical character of firms have produced mixed results regarding their lifespans and mortality. We examine a comprehensive database of more than 25 000 publicly traded North American companies, from 1950 to 2009, to derive the statistics of firm lifespans. Based on detailed survival analysis, we show that the mortality of publicly traded companies manifests an approximately constant hazard rate over long periods of observation. This regularity indicates that mortality rates are independent of a company's age. We show that the typical half-life of a publicly traded company is about a decade, regardless of business sector. Our results shed new light on the dynamics of births and deaths of publicly traded companies and identify some of the necessary ingredients of a general theory of firms.

Macroecology Meets Macroeconomics: Resource Scarcity and Global Sustainability.

The current economic paradigm, which is based on increasing human population, economic development, and standard of living, is no longer compatible with the biophysical limits of the finite Earth. Failure to recover from the economic crash of 2008 is not due just to inadequate fiscal and monetary policies. The continuing global crisis is also due to scarcity of critical resources. Our macroecological studies highlight the role in the economy of energy and natural resources: oil, gas, water, arable land, metals, rare earths, fertilizers, fisheries, and wood. As the modern industrial technological-informational economy expanded in recent decades, it grew by consuming the Earth's natural resources at unsustainable rates. Correlations between per capita GDP and per capita consumption of energy and other resources across nations and over time demonstrate how economic growth and development depend on "nature's capital". Decades-long trends of decreasing per capita consumption of multiple important commodities indicate that overexploitation has created an unsustainable bubble of population and economy.

Amazonian societies on the brink of extinction.

OBJECTIVES: Greater Amazonia harbors as many as 100 locations of isolated indigenous peoples. Few options are available to assess the demographic health of these populations given their limited contact with the outside world. Remote sensing offers one option. METHODS: An isolated village in Brazil near the Peruvian border is visible with Google Earth imagery from 2006. The area of the fields and village, as well as the living area of the four longhouses, are measured and compared to population-by-area measurements for 71 other Brazilian indigenous communities. RESULTS: The estimated population of the village is no more than 40 people. A village as small as this one, if it has become disconnected from a metapopulation, risks imminent extinction if it has fallen below a minimum viable population size. CONCLUSIONS: An active remote surveillance program is urgently needed to track the movements and demographic health of isolated peoples in hopes of improving their dire chances for long-term survival. They need protected areas that are large enough to mitigate against external threats.

Crash and rebound of indigenous populations in lowland South America.

Lowland South America has long been a battle-ground between European colonization and indigenous survival. Initial waves of European colonization brought disease epidemics, slavery, and violence that had catastrophic impacts on indigenous cultures. In this paper we focus on the demography of 238 surviving populations in Brazil. We use longitudinal censuses from all known indigenous Brazilian societies to quantify three demographic metrics: 1) effects of European contact on indigenous populations; 2) empirical estimates of minimum viable population sizes; and 3) estimates of post-contact population growth rates. We use this information to conduct population viability analysis (PVA). Our results show that all surviving populations suffered extensive mortality during, and shortly after, contact. However, most surviving populations exhibit positive growth rates within the first decade post-contact. Our findings paint a positive demographic outlook for these indigenous populations, though long-term survival remains subject to powerful externalities, including politics, economics, and the pervasive illegal exploitation of indigenous lands.

Patterns of maximum body size evolution in Cenozoic land mammals: eco-evolutionary processes and abiotic forcing.

There is accumulating evidence that macroevolutionary patterns of mammal evolution during the Cenozoic follow similar trajectories on different continents. This would suggest that such patterns are strongly determined by global abiotic factors, such as climate, or by basic eco-evolutionary processes such as filling of niches by specialization. The similarity of pattern would be expected to extend to the history of individual clades. Here, we investigate the temporal distribution of maximum size observed within individual orders globally and on separate continents. While the maximum size of individual orders of large land mammals show differences and comprise several families, the times at which orders reach their maximum size over time show strong congruence, peaking in the Middle Eocene, the Oligocene and the Plio-Pleistocene. The Eocene peak occurs when global temperature and land mammal diversity are high and is best explained as a result of niche expansion rather than abiotic forcing. Since the Eocene, there is a significant correlation between maximum size frequency and global temperature proxy. The Oligocene peak is not statistically significant and may in part be due to sampling issues. The peak in the Plio-Pleistocene occurs when global temperature and land mammal diversity are low, it is statistically the most robust one and it is best explained by global cooling. We conclude that the macroevolutionary patterns observed are a result of the interplay between eco-evolutionary processes and abiotic forcing.

Remote sensing and conservation of isolated indigenous villages in Amazonia.

The vast forests on the border between Brazil and Peru harbour a number of indigenous groups that have limited contact with the outside world. Accurate estimates of population sizes and village areas are essential to begin assessing the immediate conservation needs of such isolated groups. In contrast to overflights and encounters on the ground, remote sensing with satellite imagery offers a safe, inexpensive, non-invasive and systematic approach to provide demographic and land-use information for isolated peoples. Satellite imagery can also be used to understand the growth of isolated villages over time. There are five isolated villages in the headwaters of the Envira River confirmed by overflights that are visible with recent satellite imagery further confirming their locations and allowing measurement of their cleared gardens, village areas and thatch roofed houses. These isolated villages appear to have population densities that are an order of magnitude higher than averages for other Brazilian indigenous villages. Here, we report on initial results of a remote surveillance programme designed to monitor movements and assess the demographic health of isolated peoples as a means to better mitigate against external threats to their long-term survival.

Effects of allometry, productivity and lifestyle on rates and limits of body size evolution.

Body size affects nearly all aspects of organismal biology, so it is important to understand the constraints and dynamics of body size evolution. Despite empirical work on the macroevolution and macroecology of minimum and maximum size, there is little general quantitative theory on rates and limits of body size evolution. We present a general theory that integrates individual productivity, the lifestyle component of the slow-fast life-history continuum, and the allometric scaling of generation time to predict a clade's evolutionary rate and asymptotic maximum body size, and the shape of macroevolutionary trajectories during diversifying phases of size evolution. We evaluate this theory using data on the evolution of clade maximum body sizes in mammals during the Cenozoic. As predicted, clade evolutionary rates and asymptotic maximum sizes are larger in more productive clades (e.g. baleen whales), which represent the fast end of the slow-fast lifestyle continuum, and smaller in less productive clades (e.g. primates). The allometric scaling exponent for generation time fundamentally alters the shape of evolutionary trajectories, so allometric effects should be accounted for in models of phenotypic evolution and interpretations of macroevolutionary body size patterns. This work highlights the intimate interplay between the macroecological and macroevolutionary dynamics underlying the generation and maintenance of morphological diversity.

The Malthusian-Darwinian dynamic and the trajectory of civilization.

Two interacting forces influence all populations: the Malthusian dynamic of exponential growth until resource limits are reached, and the Darwinian dynamic of innovation and adaptation to circumvent these limits through biological and/or cultural evolution. The specific manifestations of these forces in modern human society provide an important context for determining how humans can establish a sustainable relationship with the finite Earth.