Projected climate change impact on a coastal sea-As significant as all current pressures combined.

Climate change influences the ocean's physical and biogeochemical conditions, causing additional pressures on marine environments and ecosystems, now and in the future. Such changes occur in environments that already today suffer under pressures from, for example, eutrophication, pollution, shipping, and more. We demonstrate how to implement climate change into regional marine spatial planning by introducing data of future temperature, salinity, and sea ice cover from regional ocean climate model projections to an existing cumulative impact model. This makes it possible to assess climate change impact in relation to pre-existing cumulative impact from current human activities. Results indicate that end-of-century projected climate change alone is a threat of the same magnitude as the combination of all current pressures to the marine environment. These findings give marine planners and policymakers forewarning on how future climate change may impact marine ecosystems, across space, emission scenarios, and in relation to other pressures.

Cumulative impact assessment for ecosystem-based marine spatial planning.

Claims for ocean space are growing while marine ecosystems suffer from centuries of insufficient care. Human pressures from runoff, atmospheric emissions, marine pollution, fishing, shipping, military operations and other activities wear on habitats and populations. Ecosystem-based marine spatial planning (MSP) has emerged worldwide as a strategic instrument for handling conflicting spatial claims among competing sectors and the environment. The twofold objective of both boosting the blue economy and protecting the environment is challenging in practice and marine planners need decision support. Cumulative Impact Assessment (CIA) was originally developed to provide an overview of the human imprint on the world's ocean ecosystems. We have now added a scenario component to the CIA model and used it within Swedish ecosystem-based MSP. This has allowed us to project environmental impacts for different planning alternatives throughout the planning process, strengthening the integration of environmental considerations into strategic decision-making. Every MSP decision may entail a local shift of environmental impact, causing positive or negative consequences for ecosystem components. The results from Swedish MSP in the North Sea and Baltic Sea illustrate that MSP certainly has the potential to lower net cumulative environmental impact, both locally and across sea basins, as long as environmental values are rated high and prevailing pressures derive from activities that are part of MSP. By synthesizing innumerous data into comprehensible decision support that informs marine planners of the likely environmental consequences of different options, CIA enables ecosystem-based MSP in practice.

Spatial risk assessment of global change impacts on Swedish seagrass ecosystems.

Improved knowledge on the risk in ecologically important habitats on a regional scale from multiple stressors is critical for managing functioning and resilient ecosystems. This risk assessment aimed to identify seagrass ecosystems in southern Sweden that will be exposed to a high degree of change from multiple global change stressors in mid- and end-of-century climate change conditions. Risk scores were calculated from the expected overlap of three stressors: sea surface temperature increases, ocean acidification and wind driven turbid conditions. Three high-risk regions were identified as areas likely to be exposed to a particularly high level of pressure from the global stressors by the end of the century. In these areas it can be expected that there will be a large degree of stressor change from the current conditions. Given the ecological importance of seagrass meadows for maintaining high biodiversity and a range of other ecosystem services, these risk zones should be given high priority for incorporation into management strategies, which can attempt to reduce controllable stressors in order to mitigate the consequences of some of the impending pressures and manage for maintained ecosystem resilience.

A tool for simulating collision probabilities of animals with marine renewable energy devices.

The mathematical problem of establishing a collision probability distribution is often not trivial. The shape and motion of the animal as well as of the the device must be evaluated in a four-dimensional space (3D motion over time). Earlier work on wind and tidal turbines was limited to a simplified two-dimensional representation, which cannot be applied to many new structures. We present a numerical algorithm to obtain such probability distributions using transient, three-dimensional numerical simulations. The method is demonstrated using a sub-surface tidal kite as an example. Necessary pre- and post-processing of the data created by the model is explained, numerical details and potential issues and limitations in the application of resulting probability distributions are highlighted.

A probabilistic model for hydrokinetic turbine collision risks: exploring impacts on fish.

A variety of hydrokinetic turbines are currently under development for power generation in rivers, tidal straits and ocean currents. Because some of these turbines are large, with rapidly moving rotor blades, the risk of collision with aquatic animals has been brought to attention. The behavior and fate of animals that approach such large hydrokinetic turbines have not yet been monitored at any detail. In this paper, we conduct a synthesis of the current knowledge and understanding of hydrokinetic turbine collision risks. The outcome is a generic fault tree based probabilistic model suitable for estimating population-level ecological risks. New video-based data on fish behavior in strong currents are provided and models describing fish avoidance behaviors are presented. The findings indicate low risk for small-sized fish. However, at large turbines (≥5 m), bigger fish seem to have high probability of collision, mostly because rotor detection and avoidance is difficult in low visibility. Risks can therefore be substantial for vulnerable populations of large-sized fish, which thrive in strong currents. The suggested collision risk model can be applied to different turbine designs and at a variety of locations as basis for case-specific risk assessments. The structure of the model facilitates successive model validation, refinement and application to other organism groups such as marine mammals.

Hydrokinetic turbine effects on fish swimming behaviour.

Hydrokinetic turbines, targeting the kinetic energy of fast-flowing currents, are under development with some turbines already deployed at ocean sites around the world. It remains virtually unknown as to how these technologies affect fish, and rotor collisions have been postulated as a major concern. In this study the effects of a vertical axis hydrokinetic rotor with rotational speeds up to 70 rpm were tested on the swimming patterns of naturally occurring fish in a subtropical tidal channel. Fish movements were recorded with and without the rotor in place. Results showed that no fish collided with the rotor and only a few specimens passed through rotor blades. Overall, fish reduced their movements through the area when the rotor was present. This deterrent effect on fish increased with current speed. Fish that passed the rotor avoided the near-field, about 0.3 m from the rotor for benthic reef fish. Large predatory fish were particularly cautious of the rotor and never moved closer than 1.7 m in current speeds above 0.6 ms(-1). The effects of the rotor differed among taxa and feeding guilds and it is suggested that fish boldness and body shape influenced responses. In conclusion, the tested hydrokinetic turbine rotor proved non-hazardous to fish during the investigated conditions. However, the results indicate that arrays comprising multiple turbines may restrict fish movements, particularly for large species, with possible effects on habitat connectivity if migration routes are exploited. Arrays of the investigated turbine type and comparable systems should therefore be designed with gaps of several metres width to allow large fish to pass through. In combination with further research the insights from this study can be used for guiding the design of hydrokinetic turbine arrays where needed, so preventing ecological impacts.

Nitroglycerin-patch induced tolerance is associated with reduced ability of nitroglycerin to increase exhaled nitric oxide.

Nitroglycerin (GTN), used in the treatment of ischemic heart disease, acts through the liberation of nitric oxide (NO). However, its clinical use is limited due to tolerance development. Expired NO was used as an indicator of GTN-bioactivation and was measured together with plasma nitrite and mean arterial pressure (MAP) during GTN indicator infusions. The model was applied in rabbits subjected to various time periods of low-dose GTN pretreatment by patch application for 1, 24 and 72 h. Pretreatment with GTN-patch resulted in significant attenuation of expired NO from the GTN indicator infusion in the 24 h and 72 h pretreatment groups compared to placebo (72 h). Dose-response curves with increasing GTN infusions after 24 h GTN-patch pretreatment revealed a significant attenuation of the MAP decrease compared to placebo. GTN-induced changes in plasma nitrite correlated to increases in expired NO and decreases in MAP. This indicates that expired NO could serve as an indicator of NO generation from GTN in the vascular system. We conclude that GTN tolerance is associated with reduced capacity to generate NO from GTN. Care should be taken in using MAP-reduction to evaluate tolerance since high indicator doses could liberate sufficient amounts of NO to elicit maximal MAP decrease even in tolerant animals.