Preparedness for a smallpox outbreak: comparing metrics for assessing levels of vaccination among health-care workers by state.

By mid-2005, less than 17% of smallpox vaccine doses distributed to American states for health-care workers (HCWs) during the CDC campaign had been used. To understand how states responded, vaccination patterns were studied. Metrics were calculated to compare the level of preparedness for a smallpox outbreak in terms of absolute numbers of HCWs vaccinated compared to the percentage of doses distributed to each state, the rate of vaccination per capita population, and the percentage of HCWs vaccinated compared to the number the CDC recommended. States were then ranked. Results showed that rankings for all four metrics were statistically different (P<0.0001). In addition, when ranks were assigned to quartiles, the states directly affected on 9/11/01 ranked lowest and states widely perceived to be at lower terror risk ranked in the top. These results underscore the need to critically examine how to define an appropriate level of preparedness for a smallpox outbreak.

Colon cancer survival is associated with increasing number of lymph nodes analyzed: a secondary survey of intergroup trial INT-0089.

PURPOSE: To determine the relationship, in patients with adenocarcinoma of the colon, between survival and the number of lymph nodes analyzed from surgical specimens. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Intergroup Trial INT-0089 is a mature trial of adjuvant chemotherapy for high-risk patients with stage II and stage III colon cancer. We performed a secondary analysis of this group with overall survival (OS) as the main end point. Cause-specific survival (CSS) and disease-free survival were secondary end points. Rates for these outcome measures were estimated using Kaplan-Meier methodology. Log-rank test was used to compare overall curves, and Cox proportional hazards regression was used to multivariately assess predictors of outcome. RESULTS: The median number of lymph nodes removed at colectomy was 11 (range, one to 87). Of the 3411 assessable patients, 648 had no evidence of lymph node metastasis. Multivariate analyses were performed on the node-positive and node-negative groups separately to ascertain the effect of lymph node removal. Survival decreased with increasing number of lymph node involvement (P =.0001 for all three survival end points). After controlling for the number of nodes involved, survival increased as more nodes were analyzed (P =.0001 for all three end points). Even when no nodes were involved, OS and CSS improved as more lymph nodes were analyzed (P =.0005 and P =.007, respectively). CONCLUSION: The number of lymph nodes analyzed for staging colon cancers is, itself, a prognostic variable on outcome. The impact of this variable is such that it may be an important variable to include in evaluating future trials.

Recursive partitioning identifies patients at high and low risk for ipsilateral tumor recurrence after breast-conserving surgery and radiation.

PURPOSE: Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA), a method of building decision trees of significant prognostic factors for outcome, was used to determine subgroups at significantly different risk for ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR) in early-stage breast cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Nine hundred twelve women underwent breast-conserving surgery, axillary dissection, and radiation. Systemic therapy was chemotherapy with or without tamoxifen in 32%, tamoxifen in 27%, or none in 41%. RPA was used to create a decision tree according to predictive variables that classify patients by IBTR risk, and the Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate 10-year risks. Median follow-up was 5.9 years. RESULTS: Age was the first split in the partition tree. Patients more than 55 years old had a 4% 10-year IBTR, the only further division being use of tamoxifen or not (2% v 5%, P =.03). For patients

Plasma levels of IGF-1, IGF-2, and IGFBP-3 in white and African-American men at increased risk of prostate cancer.

OBJECTIVES: To further investigate the relationship between the plasma levels of insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1), insulin-like growth factor-2 (IGF-2), insulin-like growth factor binding protein-3 (IGFBP-3), growth hormone, testosterone, and demographic factors, particularly race, within a group of men at increased risk of prostate cancer development. METHODS: Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays or an immunosorbent assay was used to quantitate the plasma levels of IGF-1, IGF-2, IGFBP-3, growth hormone, and testosterone. The study group consisted of 169 men (85 African-American, 84 white) aged 35 to 69 years, with no personal history of prostate cancer, but having at least one first-degree relative diagnosed with the disease, unless they were African-American. The relationships between the plasma levels and the categorical covariates were assessed using the nonparametric Wilcoxon test and between the continuous variables using Spearman's correlation coefficient. RESULTS: The mean plasma levels of IGFBP-3 were significantly lower in African-American (2657 ng/mL) than in white (2965 ng/mL) men (P = 0.0062). The plasma levels of IGF-2 were also lower in the African-American (503.5 ng/mL) than in the white (549.1 ng/mL) men (P = 0.0084). Overall, the IGF-1 plasma levels correlated positively with the IGF-2, IGFBP-3, and growth hormone levels and the IGF-2 plasma levels correlated negatively with the testosterone levels. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate that lower plasma levels of IGFBP-3 and IGF-2 are associated with race in a population of men at increased risk of developing prostate cancer. The ability of these markers to predict earlier disease onset is currently under investigation.

Hypoxia in human prostate carcinoma: an Eppendorf PO2 study.

The purpose of this study was to characterize the extent of hypoxia in human prostate carcinoma using the Eppendorf PO2 microelectrode. Custom-made Eppendorf PO2 microelectrodes were used to obtain PO2 measurements from the pathologically involved region of the prostate (as determined by the pretreatment sextant biopsies), as well as from a region of normal muscle for comparison. Fifty-nine patients with localized prostate cancer were studied, all of whom received brachytherapy implants under spinal anesthesia. A multivariate mixed effects analysis for prediction of tumor oxygenation was performed including the following covariates: type of tissue (prostate versus muscle), prostatic-specific antigen, disease stage, patient age and race, tumor grade, volume, perineural invasion, and hormonal therapy. Because of differences in patient characteristics, control measurements were obtained from normal muscle in all patients. This internal comparison showed that the oxygen measurements from the pathologically involved portion of the prostate were significantly lower (average median PO2 = 2.4 mm Hg) compared with the measurements from normal muscle (average median PO2 = 30.0 mm Hg), p < 0.0001. A multivariate, linear, mixed analysis demonstrated that the only significant predictor of oxygenation was the type of tissue (prostate versus muscle). This study, using in vivo electrode oxygen measurements, suggests that hypoxia exists in human prostate carcinoma. More patients will be accrued to this study to ultimately correlate the oxygenation status in prostate carcinoma tumors with treatment outcome.

Defining the optimal radiation dose with three-dimensional conformal radiation therapy for patients with nonmetastatic prostate carcinoma by using recursive partitioning techniques.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to determine the effect of dose and its interaction with known prognostic variables, including pretreatment prostate specific antigen (PSA), Gleason score (GS), and T classification, on patients with nonmetastatic prostate carcinoma treated with three-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3DCRT) alone using recursive partitioning analysis. METHODS: Between November 1987 and November 1997, 939 patients with nonmetastatic prostate carcinoma were treated with 3DCRT alone at Fox Chase Cancer Center. Biochemical no evidence of disease (bNED) control was defined using the American Society of Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology Consensus definition. Recursive partitioning analysis was used to identify subgroups with similar risks of bNED failure. Prognostic factors used in the model included pretreatment PSA, GS, T classification, and radiation dose. The median follow-up was 47 months (range, 2-133 months). RESULTS: Twelve terminal nodes of the decision tree were merged to form four prognostic groups with similar bNED control rates. The 5-year actuarial rates of bNED control rates for Groups I, II, III, and IV were 84%, 41%, 16%, and 67%, respectively (P < 0.0001). Increasing the dose to greater than 7235 centigray (cGy) improved bNED control rates for patients with PSA levels of 10-19.9 ng/mL and T1/2a classification disease. Increasing the dose to greater than 7629 cGy improved bNED control rates for patients with T2b/3 classification disease with PSA levels less than 20 ng/mL. Patients with PSA levels greater than or equal to 20 ng/mL need high-dose 3DCRT. For those patients with GS 2-6 and T1/2a classification disease, treatment with greater than 7400 cGy resulted in 67% bNED control rate versus 16% at 5 years for treatment with less than 7400 cGy. High radiation dose (> 7700 cGy) improved bNED control rate from 16% to 41% for patients with high-risk disease (PSA > or = 20 ng/mL and GS 7-10) at 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: The authors showed that with recursive partitioning techniques radiation dose continues to be an important predictor of bNED control rate and that a radiation dose response for patients with clinically localized prostate carcinoma exists. Patients with one or more prognostic feature (PSA > 10 ng/mL, classification T2b/T3, GS 7-10, or the presence of perineural invasion) achieve similar rates of bNED control compared with those patients with lower volume disease when radiation dose is increased.

Patterns and fate of PSA bouncing following 3D-CRT.

PURPOSE: The goals of this study were to quantify the frequency of post-treatment prostate-specific antigen (PSA)-level bouncing following three-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3D-CRT) for prostate cancer and to identify any relationships that may exist between bouncing activity and biochemical control (bNED). METHODS: Between May 1989 and July 1995, 306 patients were treated with 3D-CRT alone. All patients had 6 or more post-treatment PSA levels and at least 5 years of PSA follow-up. The median total follow-up and total dose to the center of prostate was 79 months and 74 Gy, respectively. A bounce was defined by a minimum rise in PSA of 0.4 ng/mL over a 6-month period, followed by a drop in PSA of any magnitude. Estimates of bNED control rates were made using Kaplan-Meier methodology and comparisons were made using the log-rank test. Multivariate analysis of bNED control predictors was accomplished using a stepwise Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: Nearly one third of the patients experienced at least one bounce. Bouncers were found to present with higher pretreatment PSA levels and were treated with lower dose levels to the center of prostate. Five-year bNED control estimates for nonbouncers vs. bouncers were 69% and 52%, respectively (p = 0.0024). After controlling for dose and pretreatment PSA level, total number of bounces emerged as a significant predictor of bNED control (p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Bouncing PSA levels occur in approximately one third of the patients treated with 3D-CRT alone, with bouncing occurring at a constant rate from 2 to 5 years post-treatment. Bouncing is associated with lower radiation dose levels, higher pretreatment PSA levels, and decreased bNED control. Nearly half of the bouncers are bNED controlled; thus, clinicians should not use bouncing as a sole indicator of relapse.

Evidence for cure of 'young' men with prostate cancer.

A study was undertaken to evaluate the question of cure in "young" men with prostate cancer treated by external-beam radiation. Results in young men (< or = 65 years) were compared to older men. Biochemical freedom from failure was examined to 10 years' follow-up, and hazard functions for failure vs time were reported. Results show that prostate cancer patients are cured by external-beam radiation and that there is no difference in results for young or older men. Few failures occur after 5 years' follow-up and the percentage cured is similar to that with prostatectomy, with much less morbidity. Appropriate dose is necessary to optimize outcome.

Lobular carcinoma in situ increases the risk of local recurrence in selected patients with stages I and II breast carcinoma treated with conservative surgery and radiation.

BACKGROUND: Lobular carcinoma in situ (LCIS) is a known risk factor for the development of invasive breast carcinoma. However, little is known regarding the impact of LCIS in association with an invasive carcinoma on the risk of an ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR) in patients who are treated with conservative surgery (CS) and radiation therapy (RT). The purpose of this study was to examine the influence of LCIS on the local recurrence rate in patients with early stage breast carcinoma after breast-conserving therapy. METHODS: Between 1979 and 1995, 1274 patients with Stage I or Stage II invasive breast carcinoma were treated with CS and RT. The median follow-up time was 6.3 years. RESULTS: LCIS was present in 65 of 1274 patients (5%) in the study population. LCIS was more likely to be associated with an invasive lobular carcinoma (30 of 59 patients; 51%) than with invasive ductal carcinoma (26 of 1125 patients; 2%). Ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR) occurred in 57 of 1209 patients (5%) without LCIS compared with 10 of 65 patients (15%) with LCIS (P = 0.001). The 10-year cumulative incidence rate of IBTR was 6% in women without LCIS compared with 29% in women with LCIS (P = 0.0003). In both groups, the majority of recurrences were invasive. The 10-year cumulative incidence rate of IBTR in patients who received tamoxifen was 8% when LCIS was present compared with 6% when LCIS was absent (P = 0.46). Subsets of patients in which the presence of LCIS was associated with an increased risk of breast recurrence included tumor size < 2 cm (T1), age < 50 years, invasive ductal carcinoma, negative lymph node status, and the absence of any adjuvant systemic treatment (chemotherapy or hormonal therapy) (P < 0.001). LCIS margin status, invasive lobular carcinoma histology, T2 tumor size, and positive axillary lymph nodes were not associated with an increased risk of breast recurrence in these women. CONCLUSIONS: The authors conclude that the presence of LCIS significantly increases the risk of an ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence in certain subsets of patients who are treated with breast-conserving therapy. The risk of local recurrence appears to be modified by the use of tamoxifen. Further studies are needed to address this issue.

Increased hypoxia correlates with increased expression of the angiogenesis marker vascular endothelial growth factor in human prostate cancer.

OBJECTIVES: To test the hypothesis that increasing levels of hypoxia are associated with increased expression of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) in prostate cancer by correlating the level of median tissue oxygenation in human prostate tumors with the immunohistochemically determined level of VEGF expression. METHODS: Custom-made Eppendorf oxygen microelectrodes were used to quantitate the pO(2) levels in prostate tumors of 13 men undergoing radical prostatectomy. All pO(2) measurements were performed under fluorine-based general anesthesia. Paraffin-embedded tumor tissue from these men was analyzed to measure the level of VEGF expression by immunohistochemical staining. The significance of the associations between the pO(2) levels and VEGF staining were determined by the Pearson correlations. RESULTS: The range of the median pO(2) levels (based on between 97 and 129 individual measurements) among 13 prostate tumors was 0.5 to 44.9 mm Hg. The blinded comparison of pO(2) levels and VEGF staining intensity demonstrated a significant correlation between increasing hypoxia and the percentage of cells staining positive for VEGF (r = -0.721, P = 0.005). This correlation was also significant when pO(2) levels were compared with the overall immunoreactive score, which takes into account staining intensity (r = -0.642, P = 0.018). CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first study demonstrating a significant association between increasing levels of hypoxia and increased expression of the angiogenesis marker VEGF in human prostate carcinoma. The results of our study further support the exploration of antiangiogenesis strategies for the treatment of human prostate cancer.

Incidental parathyroidectomy during thyroid surgery does not cause transient symptomatic hypocalcemia.

OBJECTIVES: To identify any risk factors for incidental parathyroidectomy and to define its association with symptomatic postoperative hypocalcemia. DESIGN: Retrospective study. SETTING: Tertiary referral cancer center. PATIENTS: Consecutive patients who underwent thyroid surgery between 1991 and 1999. Patients who underwent procedures for locally advanced thyroid cancer requiring laryngectomy, tracheal resection, or esophagectomy were excluded. INTERVENTIONS: All pathology reports were reviewed for the presence of any parathyroid tissue in the resected specimen. Slides were reviewed, and information regarding patient demographics, diagnosis, operative details, and postoperative complications was collected. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Identification of parathyroid tissue in resected specimens and postoperative symptomatic hypocalcemia. RESULTS: A total of 141 thyroid procedures were performed: 69 total thyroidectomies (49%) and 72 total thyroid lobectomies (51%). The findings were benign in 68 cases (48%) and malignant in 73 cases (52%). In the entire series, incidental parathyroidectomy was found in 21 cases (15%). Parathyroid tissue was found in intrathyroidal (50%), extracapsular (31%), and central node compartment (19%) sites. The performance of a concomitant modified radical neck dissection was associated with an increased risk of unplanned parathyroidectomy (P =.05). There was no association of incidental parathyroidectomy with postoperative hypocalcemia (P =.99). Multivariate analysis identified total thyroidectomy as a risk factor for postoperative hypocalcemia (P =.008). In the entire study group, transient symptomatic hypocalcemia occurred in 9 patients (6%), and permanent hypocalcemia occurred in 1 patient who underwent a total thyroidectomy and concomitant neck dissection. CONCLUSIONS: Unintended parathyroidectomy, although not uncommon, is not associated with symptomatic postoperative hypocalcemia. Modified radical neck dissection may increase the risk of incidental parathyroidectomy. Most of the glands removed were intrathyroidal, so changes in surgical technique are unlikely to markedly reduce this risk.

Loss of the short arm of the Y chromosome in human prostate carcinoma.

A change in Y chromosome number is one of the many cytogenetic abnormalities reported in human prostate tumors. However, reports in the literature have varied regarding the frequency of Y loss or gain and the significance of Y aneusomy with respect to the biology of the disease. We have conducted an analysis of the Y chromosome in malignant and benign hyperplastic human prostate epithelium in order to determine whether regional Y loss occurs in prostate cancer. To accomplish this we performed dual-color fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) on serial sections of paraffin-embedded prostate tumor tissues using either a Yp (SRY), Ycen (alpha-satellite) or Yq (satellite 3) probe, and an Xcen (alpha-satellite) probe that served as a control for hybridization and nuclear truncation. The results of our FISH analysis demonstrated loss of Yp in the malignant epithelium of 14/40 (35%) prostate tumor sections examined. We also found loss of Yq in 4/40 (10%) of the samples, with one of these exhibiting accompanying Yp loss. The remaining samples, 23/40 (58%), retained both Yp and Yq markers, with no evidence of either Ycen loss or Y gain in any of the tumor samples examined. In addition, Y loss was detected in the benign hyperplastic regions in nearly one-half of the tissue sections that exhibited Y loss in the malignant epithelium. These results demonstrate that regional chromosome Y loss occurs in prostate cancer, that loss of Yp is the most frequent event, and suggest that this loss may in some cases be a precursor to prostate malignancy.

Quality of life study in prostate cancer patients treated with three-dimensional conformal radiation therapy: comparing late bowel and bladder quality of life symptoms to that of the normal population.

PURPOSE: The goals of this study were twofold. First, differences were quantified for symptoms that impact bowel and bladder quality of life (QOL) in prostate cancer patients treated with three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3DCRT) alone to the prostate vs. whole pelvis with prostate boost. Second, bowel and bladder QOL measures for these patients were compared to those of the normal population of men with a similar age distribution. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Two health status surveys evaluating bowel and bladder functioning, along with the AUA Symptom Problem Index and the BPH Impact Index, were mailed to 195 prostate cancer patients treated with 3DCRT between 12/92 and 11/95 at Fox Chase Cancer Center by a single clinician (GH). No patient received hormonal management as part of his treatment. Ninety-five patients had pretreatment PSA levels <10 ng/ml, T1/T2A tumors with Gleason scores 2-6, and no perineural invasion. They were treated to the prostate alone and are referred to as Group I. The remaining 100 patients had one or more of the following characteristics: pretreatment PSA levels > or =10 ng/ml, T2B/T3 tumors, Gleason scores 7-10, or perineural invasion. These patients were treated to the whole pelvis followed by a boost to the prostate and are referred to as Group II. Frequencies were tabulated, and differences in percentages for the two groups were evaluated using the two-tailed Fisher's Exact Test. Overall percentages were compared to those for equivalent measures reported by Litwin (1999) based on a normal population of men with a mean age of 73 years (range 47-86). Comparisons to the normal population were also evaluated using two-tailed Fisher's Exact p values. RESULTS: The mailing yielded a high response rate of 71% (n = 139, 66 in Group I and 73 in Group II). The mean age was 67 (range 49-82), and the median ICRU dose levels for Groups I and II were 73 and 76 Gy, respectively. Responses relating to bladder symptoms were similar for Groups I and II, except for the degree of bother associated with trouble in urination over the last month. Percentages for no bother at all were 66% and 56% for Groups I and II, respectively. Observed differences in bowel functioning related to rectal urgency over the past year (22% vs. 40% for Groups I and II, p = 0.03), the use of pads for protection against bowel incontinence (0% vs. 10% for Groups I and II, p = 0.01), and bowel satisfaction (88% vs. 72% for Groups I and II, p = 0.03). There was no significant difference in the degree of bother bladder symptoms cause men treated with radiotherapy as compared to men without cancer. Few patients reported bowel dysfunction bother as a big problem, but patients do tend to have more very small to moderate bother from bowel dysfunction than the normal population (55% vs. 33%, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: This is the first long-term study of QOL in men treated with high-dose 3DCRT for prostate cancer. It demonstrates that these men enjoy QOL related to bladder function similar to that of the normal population. Few patients report bother from bowel symptoms as a big problem but tend to have more very small to moderate bother than the normal population. Treatment of prostate cancer patients to the whole pelvis may result in decreased QOL as defined by rectal urgency, the use of pads for bowel incontinence, and satisfaction with bowel functioning. However, regardless of field size, men are generally satisfied with their bowel and bladder functioning three to six years post treatment.

Increasing levels of hypoxia in prostate carcinoma correlate significantly with increasing clinical stage and patient age: an Eppendorf pO(2) study.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to analyze the extent of hypoxia in prostate carcinoma tumors using the Eppendorf pO(2) microelectrode and correlate this with pretreatment characteristics and prognostic factors. METHODS: Custom-made Eppendorf pO(2) microelectrodes were used to obtain pO(2) measurements from the pathologically involved region of the prostate (as determined by the pretreatment sextant biopsies) as well as from a region of normal muscle for comparison. Each set of measurements comprised approximately 100 separate readings of pO(2), for a total of 10,804 individual measurements. Fifty-five patients with localized prostate carcinoma were studied: Forty-one patients received brachytherapy implants, and 14 patients underwent radical prostatectomy. The pO(2) measurements were obtained in the operating room by using a sterile technique under spinal anesthesia for the brachytherapy group and under general anesthesia for the surgery group. The Eppendorf histograms were recorded and described by the median pO(2), mean pO(2), and percentage < 5 mm Hg and < 10 mm Hg. A multivariate mixed-effects analysis for the prediction of tumor oxygenation was performed and included the following covariates: type of tissue (prostate vs. muscle), type of treatment (implant vs. surgery) and/or anesthesia (spinal vs. general), prostate specific antigen level, disease stage, patient age and race, tumor grade, tumor volume, perineural invasion, and hormonal therapy. RESULTS: Due to differences in patient characteristics and the anesthesia employed, control measurements were obtained from normal muscle (in all but two patients). This internal comparison showed that the oxygen measurements from the pathologically involved portion of the prostate were significantly lower (average median pO(2), 9.9 mm Hg) compared with the measurements normal muscle (average median pO(2), 28.6 mm Hg; P < 0.0001). A multivariate, linear, mixed analysis demonstrated that, among all of the patients, the significant predictors of oxygenation were tissue (prostate vs. muscle) and anesthesia (spinal vs. general) or treatment (implant vs. surgery). Among the brachytherapy (spinal anesthesia) patients, the significant predictors of pO(2) were tissue type, disease stage, and patient age. There were no significant predictors of oxygenation in the surgical (general anesthesia) group. CONCLUSIONS: This study, employing in vivo electrode oxygen measurements, demonstrated that hypoxia exists in prostate carcinoma tumors. A dramatic effect of anesthesia was observed, likely due to modulation of polarography in the presence of fluorine. Within the group of brachytherapy (spinal anesthesia) patients, increasing levels of hypoxia (within prostatic tissue) correlated significantly with increasing clinical stage and patient age. More patients will be accrued to this prospective study to further correlate the oxygenation status in prostate carcinoma tumors with known prognostic factors and, ultimately, treatment outcome.

Defining the appropriate radiation dose for pretreatment PSA < or = 10 ng/mL prostate cancer.

PURPOSE: To investigate whether a dose response exists for biochemical no evidence of disease (bNED) control in prostate cancer patients with pretreatment prostate-specific antigen (PSA) < or = 10 ng/mL and to identify the patient subgroups affected. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Between 5/89 and 10/97, 488 T1-T3 NX-0 M0 prostate cancer patients with PSA < or = 10 ng/mL were treated with three-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3D-CRT) alone. Median and mean pretreatment PSA values were 6.3 and 6.2, respectively. Gleason scores of 2-6 and 7-10 were noted in 386 and 102 men, respectively. AJCC 1992 palpation T1-T2AB tumors were noted in 415 patients. Perineural invasion (PNI) was noted in 60 men. Mean and median age was 67 and 68 years, respectively. Dose to the center of the prostate ranged from 6260 cGy to 8409 cGy with a mean and median of 7423 cGy and 7278 cGy, respectively. Patients were stratified into three groups according to dose: <7250 cGy, 7250-7599 cGy, and > or =7600 cGy. Median dose in these three groups was 7067 cGy, 7278 cGy, and 7734 cGy, respectively. Univariate analysis was performed to determine differences in bNED control (American Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology [ASTRO] Consensus Guidelines definition of failure) by dose group for the entire cohort, for 310 good prognosis patients (T1-T2A, Gleason score 2-6, absence of PNI), and for 178 poor prognosis patients (T2B-T3 or Gleason score 7-10 or presence of PNI) (1). Multivariate analysis (MVA) was performed to determine if dose was an independent predictor of bNED control. Median follow-up was 36 months. RESULTS: A dose response was not demonstrated for the entire group of patients with pretreatment PSA < or =10 ng/mL. Doses of <7250 cGy, 7250-7599 cGy, and > or =7600 cGy were associated with 5-year bNED control rates of 73%, 86%, and 89%, respectively (p = 0.12). MVA demonstrated prognosis group (p = 0. 038) to be the only independent predictor of bNED control. Good prognosis patients had a 5-year bNED of 85% and no dose response was seen. The subgroup of poor prognosis patients demonstrated a 5-year bNED control rate of 81% and a dose response was seen for those receiving > or =7600 cGy, compared to the two lower dose groups (94% vs. 75% vs. 70%; p = 0.0062). MVA for the poor prognosis subset demonstrated dose (p = 0.01) to be the only independent predictor for improved bNED control. CONCLUSIONS: The poor prognosis subset of PSA < or =10 ng/mL prostate cancer patients benefit from dose escalation. A dose response is not demonstrated for prostate cancer patients with pretreatment PSA < or =10 ng/mL and other favorable features.

Failure patterns and hazard rates for failure suggest the cure of prostate cancer by external beam radiation.

OBJECTIVES: To present patterns of failure and hazard rates for failure that support the concept of cure for patients with prostate cancer treated with external beam radiation (RT). METHODS: Two patient groups are reported: 408 patients treated with RT alone and 63 patients treated with RT and short-term androgen deprivation (RT+AD). All patients were treated between March 1987 and March 1995 and had at least 4 years of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) follow-up. The median follow-up was 69 months for the RT alone group and 60 months for the RT+AD group. For each treatment group, biochemical control and hazard functions were estimated using the ASTRO consensus definition of failure and the life table method. RESULTS: The 5 and 8-year biochemical control estimates were 60% and 59% for the RT alone group, respectively, with only two failures occurring after 5 years (1% of the total failures observed). Hazard function estimates indicated a maximum risk of failure at 12 to 36 months, tapering to a low rate at 4 years, with no failures observed after 6 years. The differences in the patterns of failure by PSA level revealed a maximum risk of failure at 12 to 24 months (median 28) for a pretreatment PSA level of less than 10 ng/mL, 12 to 36 months (median 25) for a pretreatment PSA level of 10 to 19.9 ng/mL, and 12 to 36 months (median 22) for a pretreatment PSA level of 20 ng/mL or greater. The latter group reached low levels of risk at 6 years in contrast to 4 years for the patients presenting with pretreatment PSA levels of less than 20 ng/mL. Similar patterns were observed when stratifying by stage and Gleason score: patients with a worse prognosis had the highest risk of failure earlier and achieved a low risk of failure later than patients with a more favorable prognosis. The patients in the RT+AD group had a different pattern of risk of failure, with the highest risk immediately after treatment, declining to a low risk of failure at 48 months. CONCLUSIONS: Patients treated with RT alone or RT+AD had little risk of failure after 4 to 6 years. Patients with a favorable prognosis achieved a low risk of failure sooner than high-risk patients when treated with RT alone. These results are consistent with the cure of prostate cancer by RT alone or RT+AD.

Failure pattern implications following external beam irradiation of prostate cancer: long-term follow-up and indications of cure.

The purpose of this study was to present patterns and risk of biochemical failure following external beam irradiation of prostate cancer and to make comparisons to a published modern radical prostatectomy series. Between January 1987 and December 1994, 328 men were treated definitively at Fox Chase Cancer Center for localized prostate cancer using conventional or three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy. The median biochemical follow-up was 6.4 years, with all patients having at least 5 years follow-up. Two prognostic patient groups were established on the basis of proportional hazards modeling that considered treatment and presenting tumor characteristics. For each of the two prognostic groups, biochemical failure and hazard functions were estimated using the ASTRO consensus definition of failure and life table methodology. Failure risk comparisons were made to modern published radical prostatectomy series. Multivariate analysis demonstrated the independent predictive power of pretreatment PSA level, palpation stage, Gleason score, and dose. Thus, the favorable prognosis group, Group I, consisted of 83 patients who were treated with a dose level > or = 74 Gy and who presented with PSA levels < 20 ng/ml, T1/T2A tumors, and Gleason score 2-6. Group II consisted of 245 patients with at least one of the following: pretreatment PSA level > or = 20 ng/ml, T2B/T3 tumor, Gleason score 7-10, dose < 74 Gy. The 5- and 8-year bNED estimates were 76% and 76% for Group I, and 51% and 49% for Group II. Only three failures occurred after 5 years, all from Group II, representing 2% of the total failures observed. Hazard function estimates indicate maximum risk of failure at 24 to 36 months, tapering to a low rate at 4 years with no failures observed after 6 years. Differences in patterns of failure by prognostic group show maximum risk of failure at 24 months (median, 31 months) for Group I, and 12 to 36 months (median, 22 months) for Group II. Group II reaches low levels of risk at 6 years, in contrast to 4 years for the patients with a more favorable prognosis. We concluded that patients treated with external beam radiation alone show little risk of failure after 4 to 6 years. This result suggests that the 5-year bNED control rate approximates the eventual cure rate of prostate cancer.

Dose selection for prostate cancer patients based on dose comparison and dose response studies.

PURPOSE: To better define the appropriate dose for individual prostate cancer patients treated with three-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3D CRT). METHODS AND MATERIALS: Six hundred eighteen patients treated with 3D CRT between 4/89 and 4/97 with a median follow-up of 53 months are the subject of this study. The bNED outcomes were assessed by the American Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology (ASTRO) definition. The patients were grouped into three groups by prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level (<10 ng/ml, 10-19.9 ng/ml, and 20+ ng/ml) and further subgrouped into six subgroups by favorable (T1, 2A and Gleason score < or =6 and no perineural invasion) and unfavorable characteristics (one or more of T2B, T3, Gleason 7-10, perineural invasion). Dose comparisons for bNED studies were made for each of the six subgroups by dividing patients at 76 Gy for all subgroups except the favorable <10 ng/ml subgroup, which was divided at 72.5 Gy. Five-year bNED rates were compared for the median dose of each dose comparison subgroup. Dose response functions were plotted based on 5-year bNED rates for the six patient groupings, with the data from each of the six subgroups divided into three dose groups. The 5-year bNED rate was also estimated using the dose response function and compares 73 Gy with 78 Gy. RESULTS: Dose comparisons show a significant difference in 5-year bNED rates for three of the six subgroups but not for the favorable <10 ng/ml, the favorable 10-19.9 ng/ml, or the unfavorable > or =20 ng/ml subgroups. The significant differences ranged from 22% to 40% improvement in 5-year bNED with higher dose. Dose response functions show significant differences in 5-year bNED rates comparing 73 Gy and 78 Gy for four of the six subgroups. Again, no difference was observed for the favorable <10 ng/ml group or the unfavorable > or =20 ng/ml group. The significant differences observed in 5-year bNED ranged from 15% to 43%. CONCLUSIONS: Dose response varies by patient subgroup, and appropriate dose can be estimated for up to six subdivisions of prostate cancer patients. The appropriate use of high dose with 3D CRT results in 5-year cure rates that equal or exceed other treatments. The national practice must be upgraded to allow the safe administration of 75-80 Gy with 3D CRT.

Scrutiny of the ASTRO consensus definition of biochemical failure in irradiated prostate cancer patients demonstrates its usefulness and robustness. American Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology.

PURPOSE: The goals of this study are: (1) to establish the robustness of the Fox Chase Cancer Center (FCCC) and the American Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology (ASTRO) consensus definitions of failure by comparing biochemical estimates under various modifications of the censoring and failure time components to their respective unaltered definitions; (2) to isolate the source of variation between the two definitions of failure; and (3) to describe the hazard of failure over time for each definition. METHODS: Between May 1989 and May 1997, 670 men were treated at Fox Chase Cancer Center for localized prostate cancer using three-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3DCRT). These men were stratified into three groups for analysis: 111 men treated with adjuvant hormones; 204 men treated with radiation therapy alone and presenting with more favorable prognosis tumor characteristics; 255 men treated with radiation therapy alone and presenting with less favorable prognosis tumor characteristics. For each group, biochemical failure was estimated and compared using the FCCC and ASTRO definitions of failure. The robustness of each definition was evaluated by comparing estimates under the definition as stated to those under various modifications of the censoring and failure components. Analyses were also performed while excluding slow-progressing patients. To isolate the source of variation between the two failure definitions, estimates were compared for patients with agreement in failure status. Estimates of biochemical failure, and thus hazard rates, were made using Kaplan-Meier methodology. RESULTS: ASTRO biochemical failure estimates were higher than the FCCC failure estimates in the first 5 years post-treatment. Beyond 5 years, ASTRO estimates level off, while the FCCC failure estimates continued to increase. These failure patterns were similar in all patient groups; however, patients treated with adjuvant hormones had a much higher risk of failure immediately following treatment under the ASTRO definition. Modifying the censoring pattern had little effect on failure estimates in any patient group, regardless of definition used. The exclusion of patients with slow prostate-specific antigen (PSA) doubling time did not result in biochemical estimates that differed significantly from those for all patients. The analysis of patients with agreement in failure status continued to demonstrate significant differences in estimates between the two definitions, and thus differences may be attributed to the specification of time to failure. For all patient groups, hazard rates were dependent upon failure definition: under the FCCC failure definition, patients were at constant risk of failure over the observation period; under the ASTRO failure definition, patients were at risk of failure during the first 4 years following treatment, and then at low risk of failure beyond 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Both FCCC and ASTRO failure definitions were robust to modifications in censoring and the inclusion of patients with long doubling times. The ASTRO failure definition was robust to specifying the time to failure at first rise, as opposed to midway between nadir and first rise. Similarities in estimates for all patients versus patients with agreeing failure status suggest that differences in failure definition lie in the specification of time to failure. The ASTRO definition of failure is more appropriate because it does not impose an empirical failure marker but is based on the initiation of biochemical rise. The use of the ASTRO consensus definition demonstrated little risk of biochemical failure 4 years beyond treatment. The ASTRO failure definition should be adopted in all research involving biochemical failure analysis of men treated with radiation therapy.