Point prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Sweden at six time points during 2020.

BACKGROUND: In order to estimate the prevalence and understand the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Sweden, the Public Health Agency of Sweden, with support from the Swedish Armed Forces, conducted a series of point prevalence surveys between March and December 2020. METHODS: Sampling material and instructions on how to perform self-sampling of the upper respiratory tract were delivered to the homes of the participants. Samples were analysed by real-time PCR, and the participants completed questionnaires regarding symptoms. FINDINGS: The first survey in the Stockholm region in March 2020 included 707 participants and showed a SARS-CoV-2 prevalence of 2.5%. The following five surveys, performed on a national level, with between 2461 and 2983 participants, showed SARS-CoV-2 prevalences of 0.9% (April), 0.3% (May), 0.0% (August), 0.0% (September), and 0.7% (December). All positive cases who responded to questionnaires reported experiencing symptoms that occurred from 2 weeks before the date of sampling up to and including the date of sampling. INTERPRETATION: None of the individuals shown to be PCR-positive were asymptomatic at the time of sampling or in the 14 days prior to sampling. This is in contrast to many other surveys in which a substantial proportion of positive cases have been reported to be asymptomatic. Our surveys demonstrate a decreasing ratio between notified cases and the observed prevalence throughout the year, in line with increasing testing capacity and the consecutive inclusion of all symptomatic individuals in the case definition for testing.

Introducing pre-exposure prophylaxis to prevent HIV acquisition among men who have sex with men in Sweden: insights from a mathematical pair formation model.

OBJECTIVES: Since 2017, the Public Health Agency of Sweden recommends that pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV should be offered to high-risk individuals, in particular to men who have sex with men (MSM). The objective of this study is to develop a mathematical model investigating the effect of introducing PrEP to MSM in Sweden. DESIGN: A pair formation model, including steady and casual sex partners, is developed to study the impact of introducing PrEP. Two groups are included in the model: sexually high active MSM and sexually low active MSM. Three mixing assumptions between the groups are considered. SETTING: A gay-friendly MSM HIV/sexually transmitted infection testing clinic in Stockholm, Sweden. This clinic started offering PrEP to MSM in October 2018. PARTICIPANTS: The model is calibrated according to detailed sexual behaviour data gathered in 2015 among 403 MSM. RESULTS: By targeting sexually high active MSM, a PrEP coverage of 3.5% of the MSM population (10% of all high actives) would result in the long-term HIV prevalence to drop considerably (close to 0%). While targeting only low actives would require a PrEP coverage of 35% for a similar reduction. The main effect of PrEP is the reduced susceptibility, whereas the increased HIV testing rate (every third month) among PrEP users plays a lesser role. CONCLUSIONS: To create a multifaceted picture of the effects of interventions against HIV, we need models that include the different stages of HIV infection and real-world data on detailed sexual behaviour to calibrate the mathematical models. Our findings conclude that targeting HIV high-risk individuals, within HIV risk populations such as MSM, with PrEP programmes could greatly decrease the long-term HIV prevalence in Sweden. Therefore, risk stratification of individuals is of importance in PrEP implementation programmes, to ensure optimising the effect and cost-effectiveness of such programmes.

Inferring individual sexual action dispositions from egocentric network data on dyadic sexual outcomes.

In this paper we present a family of models that allows us to estimate egos' unobserved action dispositions from a joint behavioural outcome of a dyadic social interaction process of both egos' and alters' action dispositions. The method is put to test on a data set containing two different types of dyadic activities of high relevance for the spread of sexually transmitted infections (STI), condom use and anal sex. The data consists of individuals older than 15 years old who visited one of the nine youth clinics in the Vastra Gotaland region of Sweden between February 2010 and March 2011 for STI testing. This is hence a group of special interest for STI interventions. We cannot find any difference in condom disposition between women and men. Condoms are initially used more often in less risky types of relationships, especially if the partner ends up as a main partner. When studying the disposition towards anal sex we do however find a difference between men and women. Women are more against practising anal sex than men while the majority of men are neutral towards anal sex.