Prediction of Alzheimer's disease progression within 6 years using speech: A novel approach leveraging language models.

INTRODUCTION: Identification of individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) who are at risk of developing Alzheimer's disease (AD) is crucial for early intervention and selection of clinical trials. METHODS: We applied natural language processing techniques along with machine learning methods to develop a method for automated prediction of progression to AD within 6 years using speech. The study design was evaluated on the neuropsychological test interviews of n = 166 participants from the Framingham Heart Study, comprising 90 progressive MCI and 76 stable MCI cases. RESULTS: Our best models, which used features generated from speech data, as well as age, sex, and education level, achieved an accuracy of 78.5% and a sensitivity of 81.1% to predict MCI-to-AD progression within 6 years. DISCUSSION: The proposed method offers a fully automated procedure, providing an opportunity to develop an inexpensive, broadly accessible, and easy-to-administer screening tool for MCI-to-AD progression prediction, facilitating development of remote assessment. HIGHLIGHTS: Voice recordings from neuropsychological exams coupled with basic demographics can lead to strong predictive models of progression to dementia from mild cognitive impairment. The study leveraged AI methods for speech recognition and processed the resulting text using language models. The developed AI-powered pipeline can lead to fully automated assessment that could enable remote and cost-effective screening and prognosis for Alzehimer's disease.

Automating biomedical literature review for rapid drug discovery: Leveraging GPT-4 to expedite pandemic response.

OBJECTIVE: The rapid expansion of the biomedical literature challenges traditional review methods, especially during outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases when quick action is critical. Our study aims to explore the potential of ChatGPT to automate the biomedical literature review for rapid drug discovery. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We introduce a novel automated pipeline helping to identify drugs for a given virus in response to a potential future global health threat. Our approach can be used to select PubMed articles identifying a drug target for the given virus. We tested our approach on two known pathogens: SARS-CoV-2, where the literature is vast, and Nipah, where the literature is sparse. Specifically, a panel of three experts reviewed a set of PubMed articles and labeled them as either describing a drug target for the given virus or not. The same task was given to the automated pipeline and its performance was based on whether it labeled the articles similarly to the human experts. We applied a number of prompt engineering techniques to improve the performance of ChatGPT. RESULTS: Our best configuration used GPT-4 by OpenAI and achieved an out-of-sample validation performance with accuracy/F1-score/sensitivity/specificity of 92.87%/88.43%/83.38%/97.82% for SARS-CoV-2 and 87.40%/73.90%/74.72%/91.36% for Nipah. CONCLUSION: These results highlight the utility of ChatGPT in drug discovery and development and reveal their potential to enable rapid drug target identification during a pandemic-level health emergency.

Improved prediction of MHC-peptide binding using protein language models.

Major histocompatibility complex Class I (MHC-I) molecules bind to peptides derived from intracellular antigens and present them on the surface of cells, allowing the immune system (T cells) to detect them. Elucidating the process of this presentation is essential for regulation and potential manipulation of the cellular immune system. Predicting whether a given peptide binds to an MHC molecule is an important step in the above process and has motivated the introduction of many computational approaches to address this problem. NetMHCPan, a pan-specific model for predicting binding of peptides to any MHC molecule, is one of the most widely used methods which focuses on solving this binary classification problem using shallow neural networks. The recent successful results of Deep Learning (DL) methods, especially Natural Language Processing (NLP-based) pretrained models in various applications, including protein structure determination, motivated us to explore their use in this problem. Specifically, we consider the application of deep learning models pretrained on large datasets of protein sequences to predict MHC Class I-peptide binding. Using the standard performance metrics in this area, and the same training and test sets, we show that our models outperform NetMHCpan4.1, currently considered as the-state-of-the-art.

Automated detection of mild cognitive impairment and dementia from voice recordings: A natural language processing approach.

INTRODUCTION: Automated computational assessment of neuropsychological tests would enable widespread, cost-effective screening for dementia. METHODS: A novel natural language processing approach is developed and validated to identify different stages of dementia based on automated transcription of digital voice recordings of subjects' neuropsychological tests conducted by the Framingham Heart Study (n = 1084). Transcribed sentences from the test were encoded into quantitative data and several models were trained and tested using these data and the participants' demographic characteristics. RESULTS: Average area under the curve (AUC) on the held-out test data reached 92.6%, 88.0%, and 74.4% for differentiating Normal cognition from Dementia, Normal or Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) from Dementia, and Normal from MCI, respectively. DISCUSSION: The proposed approach offers a fully automated identification of MCI and dementia based on a recorded neuropsychological test, providing an opportunity to develop a remote screening tool that could be adapted easily to any language.

Development and validation of predictive models for COVID-19 outcomes in a safety-net hospital population.

OBJECTIVE: To develop predictive models of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes, elucidate the influence of socioeconomic factors, and assess algorithmic racial fairness using a racially diverse patient population with high social needs. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data included 7,102 patients with positive (RT-PCR) severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 test at a safety-net system in Massachusetts. Linear and nonlinear classification methods were applied. A score based on a recurrent neural network and a transformer architecture was developed to capture the dynamic evolution of vital signs. Combined with patient characteristics, clinical variables, and hospital occupancy measures, this dynamic vital score was used to train predictive models. RESULTS: Hospitalizations can be predicted with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 92% using symptoms, hospital occupancy, and patient characteristics, including social determinants of health. Parsimonious models to predict intensive care, mechanical ventilation, and mortality that used the most recent labs and vitals exhibited AUCs of 92.7%, 91.2%, and 94%, respectively. Early predictive models, using labs and vital signs closer to admission had AUCs of 81.1%, 84.9%, and 92%, respectively. DISCUSSION: The most accurate models exhibit racial bias, being more likely to falsely predict that Black patients will be hospitalized. Models that are only based on the dynamic vital score exhibited accuracies close to the best parsimonious models, although the latter also used laboratories. CONCLUSIONS: This large study demonstrates that COVID-19 severity may accurately be predicted using a score that accounts for the dynamic evolution of vital signs. Further, race, social determinants of health, and hospital occupancy play an important role.

An Artificial Intelligence-Assisted Method for Dementia Detection Using Images from the Clock Drawing Test.

BACKGROUND: Widespread dementia detection could increase clinical trial candidates and enable appropriate interventions. Since the Clock Drawing Test (CDT) can be potentially used for diagnosing dementia-related disorders, it can be leveraged to develop a computer-aided screening tool. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate if a machine learning model that uses images from the CDT can predict mild cognitive impairment or dementia. METHODS: Images of an analog clock drawn by 3,263 cognitively intact and 160 impaired subjects were collected during in-person dementia evaluations by the Framingham Heart Study. We processed the CDT images, participant's age, and education level using a deep learning algorithm to predict dementia status. RESULTS: When only the CDT images were used, the deep learning model predicted dementia status with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 81.3% ± 4.3%. A composite logistic regression model using age, level of education, and the predictions from the CDT-only model, yielded an average AUC and average F1 score of 91.9% ±1.1% and 94.6% ±0.4%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Our modeling framework establishes a proof-of-principle that deep learning can be applied on images derived from the CDT to predict dementia status. When fully validated, this approach can offer a cost-effective and easily deployable mechanism for detecting cognitive impairment.

Early prediction of level-of-care requirements in patients with COVID-19.

This study examined records of 2566 consecutive COVID-19 patients at five Massachusetts hospitals and sought to predict level-of-care requirements based on clinical and laboratory data. Several classification methods were applied and compared against standard pneumonia severity scores. The need for hospitalization, ICU care, and mechanical ventilation were predicted with a validation accuracy of 88%, 87%, and 86%, respectively. Pneumonia severity scores achieve respective accuracies of 73% and 74% for ICU care and ventilation. When predictions are limited to patients with more complex disease, the accuracy of the ICU and ventilation prediction models achieved accuracy of 83% and 82%, respectively. Vital signs, age, BMI, dyspnea, and comorbidities were the most important predictors of hospitalization. Opacities on chest imaging, age, admission vital signs and symptoms, male gender, admission laboratory results, and diabetes were the most important risk factors for ICU admission and mechanical ventilation. The factors identified collectively form a signature of the novel COVID-19 disease.

The new coronavirus (now named SARS-CoV-2) causing the disease pandemic in 2019 (COVID-19), has so far infected over 35 million people worldwide and killed more than 1 million. Most people with COVID-19 have no symptoms or only mild symptoms. But some become seriously ill and need hospitalization. The sickest are admitted to an Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and may need mechanical ventilation to help them breath. Being able to predict which patients with COVID-19 will become severely ill could help hospitals around the world manage the huge influx of patients caused by the pandemic and save lives. Now, Hao, Sotudian, Wang, Xu et al. show that computer models using artificial intelligence technology can help predict which COVID-19 patients will be hospitalized, admitted to the ICU, or need mechanical ventilation. Using data of 2,566 COVID-19 patients from five Massachusetts hospitals, Hao et al. created three separate models that can predict hospitalization, ICU admission, and the need for mechanical ventilation with more than 86% accuracy, based on patient characteristics, clinical symptoms, laboratory results and chest x-rays. Hao et al. found that the patients' vital signs, age, obesity, difficulty breathing, and underlying diseases like diabetes, were the strongest predictors of the need for hospitalization. Being male, having diabetes, cloudy chest x-rays, and certain laboratory results were the most important risk factors for intensive care treatment and mechanical ventilation. Laboratory results suggesting tissue damage, severe inflammation or oxygen deprivation in the body's tissues were important warning signs of severe disease. The results provide a more detailed picture of the patients who are likely to suffer from severe forms of COVID-19. Using the predictive models may help physicians identify patients who appear okay but need closer monitoring and more aggressive treatment. The models may also help policy makers decide who needs workplace accommodations such as being allowed to work from home, which individuals may benefit from more frequent testing, and who should be prioritized for vaccination when a vaccine becomes available.

A naringenin-based benzoxazine with an intramolecular hydrogen bond as both a thermal latent polymerization additive and property modifier for epoxy resins.

Epoxy resins are constantly attracting attention from industrial applications due to their excellent comprehensive properties. However, the traditional curing agents for liquid epoxy resins react with epoxides even at room temperature, which causes difficulties in processing since such mixtures cannot be directly used as single-component materials. In order to improve the shelf life of the mixtures, we have designed an intramolecular hydrogen bond-containing benzoxazine monomer as a smart thermal latent polymerization agent for epoxy resins. The newly obtained benzoxazine, NAR-a, has been synthesized from the Mannich condensation of naringenin, aniline and paraformaldehyde. In addition to playing the role of a curing agent, NAR-a has also performed as an excellent property modifier for epoxy thermosetting systems. The resulting thermoset based on the NAR-a/epoxy thermosetting system exhibits high thermal stability and good intrinsic flame retardance, with a T g temperature of 201 °C, a T d5 temperature of 349 °C, a low CET value (32.4 ppm per °C) and low heat release capacity (HRC of 159.1 J g-1 K-1). The combined long-term storage stability and versatility of the intramolecular hydrogen bond-containing benzoxazine/epoxy system provide a new strategy for the development of one-component epoxy-related thermosetting resins for application in high-performance areas.