You cannot find what you are not looking for! detecting malaria outbreaks in Uganda: a case study.

Malaria is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Uganda, with nearly half of the population becoming infected in any given year. Uganda relies on analyzing high-quality surveillance data to help detect outbreaks, determine which areas or population groups are most affected, and help target resources to where they are most needed. In March 2019, over 300 health facilities from different districts in Uganda reported substantially higher malaria cases than usual. In 13 districts, health facilities reported that the number of malaria cases was so high that they were experiencing stock outs of antimalarial drugs. Although seasonal increases in cases had been expected, districts reported that the number of cases being identified were overwhelming the capacity of the health facilities. Uganda´s National Malaria Control Division tasked a team of epidemiologists to investigate this unprecedented increase in malaria cases. National Malaria Control Division were interested in how malaria epidemiology had been changing in recent years, and whether they had missed something that would have predicted the situation they were facing in 2019. This case study describes the steps taken to conduct a descriptive analysis of routine malaria surveillance data and demonstrates how to detect malaria outbreaks using historical data. It is useful for training Field Epidemiologists and public health officers involved in analysis of surveillance data.

Malaria outbreak in Mbale: it´s the pits! a case study.

Malaria is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Uganda. In June 2019, the Uganda Ministry of Health through routine surveillance data analysis was notified of an increase in malaria cases in Bumbobi and Nyondo Sub-counties, Mbale District, which exceeded the action thresholds. We investigated to assess outbreak magnitude, identify transmission risk factors, and recommend evidence-based control measures. We defined a confirmed case as a positive malaria result using malaria Rapid Diagnostic Test or microscopy from 1 Jan 2019 to 30 Jun 2019 in a resident or visitor of Bumbobi or Nyondo Sub-county, Mbale District. We reviewed medical records to develop a line list for descriptive epidemiology. In a case-control study, we compared exposures between 150 case-persons and 150 age- and village-matched asymptomatic controls. We conducted environmental and entomological assessments on vector dynamics and behavior. We identified 7,891 case-persons (attack rate [AR]=26%). Females (AR=36%) were more affected than males (AR=25%). The 5-18 year age group (AR=26%) was most affected. The epidemic curve showed steady increase in malaria cases from March following intermittent rainfall from January, with short spells of no rainfall up to June. In the matched pair case-control analysis, 95% (143/150) of case-patients and 49% (73/150) of controls had soil erosion control pits near their homes that held stagnant water for several days following rainfall (AOR=18, 95%CI=7-50); Active breeding sites were found near and within homesteads with Anopheles gambiaeas the predominant vector. Increased vector breeding sites due to erosion control pits sustained by the intermittent rainfall caused this outbreak. We recommended draining of pits immediately after the rains and increasing coverage for bed-nets.