Modelling COVID-19 transmission in Africa: countrywise projections of total and severe infections under different lockdown scenarios.

OBJECTIVES: As of 13 January 2021, there have been 3 113 963 confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 and 74 619 deaths across the African continent. Despite relatively lower numbers of cases initially, many African countries are now experiencing an exponential increase in case numbers. Estimates of the progression of disease and potential impact of different interventions are needed to inform policymaking decisions. Herein, we model the possible trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 in 52 African countries under different intervention scenarios. DESIGN: We developed a compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to estimate the COVID-19 case burden for all African countries while considering four scenarios: no intervention, moderate lockdown, hard lockdown and hard lockdown with continued restrictions once lockdown is lifted. We further analysed the potential impact of COVID-19 on vulnerable populations affected by HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis (TB). RESULTS: In the absence of an intervention, the most populous countries had the highest peaks in active projected number of infections with Nigeria having an estimated 645 081 severe infections. The scenario with a hard lockdown and continued post-lockdown interventions to reduce transmission was the most efficacious strategy for delaying the time to the peak and reducing the number of cases. In South Africa, projected peak severe infections increase from 162 977 to 2 03 261, when vulnerable populations with HIV/AIDS and TB are included in the analysis. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic is rapidly spreading across the African continent. Estimates of the potential impact of interventions and burden of disease are essential for policymakers to make evidence-based decisions on the distribution of limited resources and to balance the economic costs of interventions with the potential for saving lives.

The non-invasive measurement of faecal immunoglobulin in African equids.

Eco-immunological research is encumbered by a lack of basic research in a wild context and by the availability of few non-invasive tools to measure the internal state of wild animals. The recent development of an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for measuring immunoglobulins in faecal samples from Soay sheep prompted us to optimize such an assay to measure immunoglobulin A (IgA: an antibody associated with parasitic nematode fecundity) in faecal samples from equids. We measured total IgA in domestic donkeys, wild plains zebras, and wild Grevy's zebras sharing the same landscape in central Kenya over two field seasons. Attempts to measure anti-nematode IgA more specifically, using a homogenized extract from a mixture of excreted nematodes, failed to clear background. However, we found that total IgA positively correlated with strongyle nematode faecal egg counts (FECs) in donkeys sampled during the wetter field season - a time when the donkeys were in good condition. Further, this relationship appeared among donkeys with high body condition but not among those with low body condition. Time lags of 1-4 days introduced between IgA and FEC measurements in repeatedly sampled donkeys did not yield correlations, suggesting that IgA and FEC roughly tracked one another without much delay in the wet field season. Such a direct IgA-FEC relationship did not appear for zebras in either the wet or dry field season, possibly due to higher interindividual variation in body condition among the free-roaming zebras than in the donkeys. However, Grevy's zebras had higher overall levels of IgA than either plains zebras or donkeys, potentially associated with their reportedly lower FECs at the population level. Our results suggest that equids may mount an IgA response to nematode egg production when the host is in good condition and that equid species may differ in baseline levels of mucosal IgA.

Respiratory syncytial virus prevalence in children admitted to five Kenyan district hospitals: a cross-sectional study.

Acute respiratory infections (ARIs) are a leading cause of under-five mortality globally. In Kenya, the reported prevalence of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections in single-centre studies has varied widely. Our study sought to determine the prevalence of RSV infection in children admitted with ARI fulfilling the WHO criteria for bronchiolitis. This was a prospective cross-sectional prevalence study in five hospitals across central and highland Kenya from April to June 2015. Two hundred and thirty-four participants were enrolled. The overall RSV positive rate was 8.1%, which is lower than in previous Kenyan studies. RSV-positive cases were on average 5 months younger than RSV-negative cases.

A convenient fluorometric method to study sulfur mustard-induced apoptosis in human epidermal keratinocytes monolayer microplate culture.

Sulfur mustard [SM; bis-(2-chloroethyl) sulfide], which causes skin blistering or vesication [(1991). Histo- and cytopathology of acute epithelial lesions. In: Papirmeister, B., Feister, A. J., Robinson, S. I., Ford, R. D., eds. Medical Defense Against Mustard Gas: Toxic Mechanisms and Pharmacological Implications. Boca Raton: CRC Press, pp. 43-78.], is a chemical warfare agent as well as a potential terrorism agent. SM-induced skin blistering is believed to be due to epidermal-dermal detachment as a result of epidermal basal cell death via apoptosis and/or necrosis. Regarding the role of apoptosis in SM pathology in animal skin, the results obtained in several laboratories, including ours, suggest the following: 1) cell death due to SM begins via apoptosis that proceeds to necrosis via an apoptotic-necrotic continuum and 2) inhibiting apoptosis decreases SM-induced microvesication in vivo. To study the mechanisms of SM-induced apoptosis and its prevention in vitro, we have established a convenient fluorometric apoptosis assay using monolayer human epidermal keratinocytes (HEK) adaptable for multiwell plates (24-, 96-, or 384-well) and high-throughput applications. This assay allows replication and multiple types of experimental manipulation in sister cultures so that the apoptotic mechanisms and the effects of test compounds can be compared statistically. SM affects diverse cellular mechanisms, including endoplasmic reticulum (ER) Ca2+ homeostasis, mitochondrial functions, energy metabolism, and death receptors, each of which can independently trigger apoptosis. However, the biochemical pathway in any of these apoptotic mechanisms is characterized by a pathway-specific sequence of caspases, among which caspase-3 is a key member. Therefore, we exposed 80-90% confluent HEK cultures to SM and monitored apoptosis by measuring the fluorescence generated due to hydrolysis of a fluorogenic caspase-3 substrate (acetyl- or benzyl oxycarbonyl-Asp-Glu-Val-Asp-fluorochrome, also designated as AC-or Z-DEVD- fluorochrome) added to the assay medium. Fluorescence was measured using a plate reader. We used two types of substrates, one (Sigma-Aldrich, CASP-3-F) required cell disruption and the other (Beckman-Coulter CellProbe HT Caspase-3/7 Whole Cell Assay Kit) was cell permeable. The latter substrate was useful in experiments such as determining the time-course of apoptosis immediately following SM exposure without disruption (e.g., due to cell processing). In SM-exposed HEK, fluorescence generated from the fluorogenic caspase-3 substrate hydrolysis increased in a time (0-24 h) and concentration (0.05, 0.1, 0.15, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5 mM) dependent manner. SM caused maximum fluorescence at about 0.5 mM. However, at 2 mM SM, fluorescence decreased compared with 0.5 mM, which remains to be explained. Following 0.3 mM SM exposure, which is considered to be the in vitro equivalent of a vesicating dose in vivo (Smith, W. J., Sanders, K. M., Ruddle, S. E., Gross, C. L. (1993). Cytometric analysis of DNA changes induced by sulfur mustard. J. Toxicol.-Cut. Ocular Toxicol. 12(4):337-347.), a small fluorescence increase was observed at 6 to 8 h, which was markedly higher at 12 h. At 24 h, all SM concentrations increased fluorescence. Fluorescence increase due to SM was prevented 100% by a caspase-3-specific peptide inhibitor AC-DEVD-CHO (acetyl-Asp-Glu-Val-Asp-aldehyde, 0.1 mM), but less effectively by a general caspase inhibitor Z-VAD-FMK (benzyl oxycarbonyl-Val-Ala-Asp-fluoromethylketone, 0.01 mM), indicating that the fluorescence increase was due to caspase-3-mediated apoptosis. These results suggest potential applications of this method to study apoptosis mechanisms involving caspase-3 substrates and possibly those involving other caspase substrates.