Response of Harbin aerosol to latest clean air actions in China.

Cities in Northeast China, e.g., Harbin, were brought to the forefront of air pollution control by a national-level policy promulgated in 2021, i.e., the Circular on Further Promoting the Pollution Prevention and Control Battle (the FP3CB Circular) which aimed at eliminating heavy or severe air pollution events. In this study, we explored the response of Harbin aerosol to the FP3CB Circular, based on observational results from two campaigns conducted during 2020-2021 and 2021-2022. A clear decreasing trend was identified for the impact of domestic biomass burning between the two winters, presumably driven by the clean heating actions. The 2021-2022 winter was also characterized by reduced formation of secondary organic aerosol but enhanced production of nitrate, which could be attributed to the less humid conditions but higher temperatures, respectively, compared to the 2020-2021 winter. The overall effect of these changes was a decrease in the contribution of organic species to wintertime aerosol in Harbin. In addition, the number of heavy or severe pollution days rebounded in the 2021-2022 winter compared to 2020-2021 (5 vs. 3), indicating that the emissions of primary particles and gaseous precursors must be further reduced to achieve the ambitious goals of the FP3CB Circular.

[Synergistic Benefits of Pollution and Carbon Reduction from Air Pollution Control in Hebei Province from 2013 to 2020].

Recently, China has been facing the dual challenges of air pollution control and carbon emission reduction. Pollution and carbon reduction have become a breakthrough point for green socio-economic transformation. Air pollutant and CO2 emission inventories provide a tool for monitoring pollution and carbon reduction; however, there have been some problems in previous studies, including incomplete species coverage, different source classifications, and narrow time scales. Based on the unified emission source classification system and estimation method, an emission inventory was developed for Hebei Province from 2013 to 2020, and the emission trends, structure change, driving force, synergistic benefits, and spatial distribution were analyzed. Hebei Province achieved a balance during the study period in socio-economic development and anthropogenic emission control. SO2 emissions decreased rapidly during the "Ten Atmospheric Measures" period. VOCs and NH3 emissions reduction were more significant during the "Blue Sky Defense War" period. The decrease rates of NOx and PM2.5 emissions were relatively stable, and CO2 emissions increased slightly. The coal-fired treatment effectively reduced the air pollutant and CO2 emissions and strengthening the emission standards for key industries reduced SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 emissions; however, the VOCs emission control requires improvement. Power and residential sources achieved co-reduction of air pollutants and CO2 and reducing residential coal optimized the energy structure, thereby leading to greater synergistic benefits in the residential source. The key pollution and carbon reduction areas in Hebei Province were Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Handan, Baoding, and Langfang. The methods and conclusions in this study can provide technical and decision-making references for regional pollution and carbon reduction efforts.

Considerable contribution of secondary aerosol to wintertime haze pollution in new target of the latest clean air actions in China.

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in Northeast China was targeted by national-level clean air policy for the first time in 2022, with the release of Action Plan to eliminate heavy air pollution events. In this study, we investigated sources of PM2.5 during three successive winters in Harbin, a megacity in Northeast China, based on observational results from several recent campaigns in 2018-2021. During the 2020-2021 campaign, daytime and nighttime samples were collected in specific months in addition to 24-h integrated measurements, and the two sets of samples were combined in different ways to run a positive matrix factorization model. The source apportionment results suggested that the resolved secondary organic carbon (SOCPMF) had an uncertainty of ∼12%. Secondary aerosols were found to show the following features for the typical winters without agricultural fires. First, SOCPMF could be properly constrained by results from another widely-used approach for SOC estimation, the elemental carbon-tracer method. Second, secondary PM2.5 calculated using SOCPMF and secondary inorganic ions were generally in line with the independent estimations based on air quality data. Third, secondary components accounted for more than 50% of PM2.5 on average and contributed even more significantly during severe haze episodes, which were the focus of the latest Action Plan. This study also found that the wintertime PM2.5 decreased more slowly during 2017-2021 compared to 2013-2017, by ∼1 and 10 µg/m3 per year, respectively, for the metropolitan area where Harbin is located at. Our results highlighted the importance of secondary aerosols for further improving air quality in Northeast China, and for avoiding heavy pollution as required by the latest Action Plan.

Agricultural fire impacts on brown carbon during different seasons in Northeast China.

Brown carbon (BrC) represents not only a major component of haze pollution but also a non-negligible contributor to positive radiative forcing, making it a key species for coordinating air quality and climate policies. In China, field observations on BrC remain limited given the highly variable emission sources and meteorological conditions across different regions. Here we focused on the optical properties of BrC in a distinct but rarely studied megacity in Northeast China, which is within a major agricultural region and experiences extremely cold winter. Agricultural fires were evident in April of 2021 and the fall of 2020, although open burning was strictly prohibited. Such emissions enhanced BrC's mass absorption efficiency at 365 nm (MAE365), more efficiently by the fall fires which were inferred to have relatively high combustion efficiencies (CE). After taking CE into consideration, the relationships between MAE365 and the levoglucosan to organic carbon ratio (a measure of the significance of agricultural fire influence) roughly converged for the fire episodes in different seasons, including those identified in February and March of 2019 by a previous campaign. Agricultural fires also influenced the determination of absorption Ångström exponent (AAE), by resulting in non-linearity for BrC's absorption spectra shown on ln-ln scale. Based on three indicators developed by this study, the non-linearity was inferred to be caused by similar chromophores although the fires were characterized by various CE levels in different seasons. In addition, for the samples without significant influence of open burning, coal combustion emissions were identified as the dominant influencing factor for MAE365, whereas none solid link was found between the solution-based AAE and aerosol source.

Exploring chemical changes of the haze pollution during a recent round of COVID-19 lockdown in a megacity in Northeast China.

COVID-19 rebounded in China in January 2021, with Heilongjiang as one of the worst-affected provinces. This resulted in a new round of lockdown in Harbin, the capital city of Heilongjiang, from 20 January to 22 February of 2021. A field campaign was conducted to explore the responses of haze pollution in Harbin to the lockdown. Levoglucosan was used to reflect biomass burning emissions, while the molar ratio of sulfur (the sum of sulfur dioxide and sulfate) to nitrogen (the sum of nitrogen dioxide and nitrate), i.e., RS/N, was used as an indicator for the relative importance of coal combustion and vehicle emissions. Based on a synthesis of the levoglucosan and RS/N results, reference period was selected with minimal influences of non-lockdown-related emission variations. As indicated by the almost unchanged sulfur dioxide concentrations, coal combustion emissions were relatively stable throughout the lockdown and reference periods, presumably because the associated activities, e.g., heating supply, power generation, etc., were usually uninterruptible. On the other hand, as suggested by the increase of RS/N, vehicle emissions were considerably reduced during lockdown, likely due to the stay-at-home orders. Compared to results from the reference samples, the lockdown period exhibited higher levels of ozone and various indicators for secondary aerosol formation, pointing to an enhancement of secondary pollution. In addition, photochemistry-related reactions in aqueous phase appeared to be present during the lockdown period, which have not been reported in the frigid atmosphere over Northeast China.

Primary nature of brown carbon absorption in a frigid atmosphere with strong haze chemistry.

Severe haze hovered over Harbin during the heating season of 2019-2020, making it one of the ten most polluted Chinese cities in January of 2020. Here we focused on the optical properties and sources of brown carbon (BrC) during the extreme atmospheric pollution periods. Enhanced formation of secondary BrC (BrCsec) was evident as relative humidity (RH) became higher, accompanied with a decrease of ozone but concurrent increases of aerosol water content and secondary inorganic aerosols. These features were generally similar to the characteristics of haze chemistry observed during winter haze events in the North China Plain, and indicated that heterogeneous reactions involving aerosol water might be at play in the formation of BrCsec, despite the low temperatures in Harbin. Although BrCsec accounted for a substantial fraction of brown carbon mass, its contribution to BrC absorption was much smaller (6 vs. 28%), pointing to a lower mass absorption efficiency (MAE) of BrCsec compared to primary BrC. In addition, emissions of biomass burning BrC (BrCBB) were inferred to increase with increasing RH, coinciding with a large drop of temperature. Since both the less absorbing BrCsec and the more absorbing BrCBB increased as RH became higher, the MAE of total BrC were largely unchanged throughout the measurement period. This study unfolded the contrast in the source apportionment results of BrC mass and absorption, and could have implications for the simulation of radiative forcing by brown carbon.

New open burning policy reshaped the aerosol characteristics of agricultural fire episodes in Northeast China.

The massive agricultural sector in the Northeast Plain, which is of great importance for the food security in China, results in a huge amount of crop residues and thus substantial concern on haze pollution due to biomass burning (BB). To seek for effective control measures on BB emissions, a dramatic transition of open burning policy occurred in Heilongjiang Province, from the "legitimate burning" policy released in 2018 to the "strict prohibition" policy implemented in 2019 and beyond. Here we explored the BB aerosols during 2020-2021 in Harbin, the capital city of Heilongjiang. Although open burning was strictly prohibited by mandatory bans, agricultural fires were not actually eliminated, as indicated by the levoglucosan levels and fire count results. In general, the BB aerosols in Harbin were attributed to the overlaying of household burning and agricultural fire emissions. The former factor laid the foundation of biomass burning impacts, with BB contributions to organic carbon and elemental carbon (fBBOC and fBBEC) of 35 and 47%, respectively. The latter further enhanced the BB impacts during specific episodes breaking out in the spring of 2021 as well as the fall of 2020, when fBBOC and fBBEC increased to 64 and 57%, respectively. In addition, comparing to the fires of 2018-2019 which occurred in winter (in response to the "legitimate burning" policy), the agricultural fires were shifted to spring and fall in the 2020-2021 campaign, accompanied with an increase of combustion efficiency. This study illustrated how the agricultural fire emissions were influenced by the transition of open burning policy.

[Transmission of Coronavirus via Aerosols and Influence of Environmental Conditions on Its Transmission].

The COVID-19 pandemic has endangered human health and production since 2019. As an emerging disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, its potential transmissibility via aerosols has caused heated debate. This work summarizes the current research findings on virus aerosol generation, aerodynamic properties, and environmental influencing factors on their survivability in order to elucidate coronavirus transmission via aerosols. The occurrence and distinction of SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV-1, and MERS-CoV in real atmospheric environments are summarized. The deficiencies of existing research and directions for necessary future research on confirming the airborne transmission mechanism of coronavirus as well as the need for multidisciplinary research are discussed.

Source apportionment of atmospheric particle number concentrations with wide size range by nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF).

Quantifying the sources of atmospheric particles is essential to air quality control but remains challenging, especially for the source apportionment of particles based on number concentration with wide size range. Here, particle number concentrations (PNC) with size range 19-20,000 nm involving four modes Nucleation, Aitken, Accumulation, and Coarse are used to do source apportionment of PNC at the Guangdong Atmospheric Supersite (Heshan) during July-October 2015 by nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) with 6 factors. For July 2015, separated source apportionments for three different size ranges from collocated instruments nano scanning mobility particle sizer (NSMPS), SMPS, and aerodynamic particle sizer (APS) and for two different size ranges (below and above 100 nm) show similar quantitative source information with that for the one whole size range. The mean absolute difference of contribution percentages of total particle number concentrations (TPNC) based on 5 unique apportioned sources is 5.6 % (4.3-7.6 %) for the instrument segregated apportionment and 4.2 % (0-5.3 %) for the size range segregated apportionment respectively, relative to the one whole apportionment. Moreover, the contribution percentages of TPNC are close to the weighted sum of contribution percentages of all size bins, with a mean absolute difference of 1.1 % (0-3.4 %). In both these two aspects, the consistency among different technical paths proves the matrix factorization by NMF is practically desirable and the simplicity of reducing some steps or calculations saves time. Besides, dust can be identified with the wide size range including larger than 3000 nm. Six apportioned sources in the 4 months are Accumulation (32.4 %), Nucleation (20.0 %), Aitken (15.2 %), traffic (14.6 %), dust (10.6 %), and Coarse (7.1 %). Therefore, NMF would serve as a promising tool for PNC source apportionment with wide size range and conducting the apportionment with the whole size range in one matrix factorization procedure and using the single TPNC contribution percentage are feasible.

[Contributors to Air Pollutant Emission Changes in Autumn and Winter in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Areas].

Based on the air pollution emission inventory technical methodology, this study conducted a quantitative analysis on the changes in major air pollutant emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and its surrounding areas from the 'New Year Haze' in the autumn and winter of 2016-2017 to the 'Pandemic Haze' in the autumn and winter of 2019-2020. The contributions of the implementation of air pollution prevention and control policies and the COVID-19 pandemic to major air pollutant emission reductions were studied, and their impacts on the regional air quality under adverse meteorological conditions were simulated using an air quality model. The results showed that from the 'New Year Haze' in Dec 2016-Jan 2017 to the 'Pandemic Haze' in Jan-Feb 2020, the major air pollutant emissions in the region had dropped by approximately 50%, and the average concentration of PM2.5 was potentially reduced by more than 40% under adverse meteorological conditions. The most effective emission reduction measures included the clean heating project and raising the standards in key industrial sectors, such as the iron and steel industry, coal-fired boilers, and power plants, which contributed 67.1% and 53.4% of the emission reductions in SO2 and PM2.5, respectively. The COVID-19 pandemic predominantly affected the mobile sources and light industry, which contributed 71.9% and 68.2% of the emission reductions in NOx and VOCs, respectively. The implementation of air pollution prevention and control policies contributed substantially to the improvement of regional air quality, which effectively reduced the intensity and extent of the heavy pollution process under unfavorable meteorological conditions. The regional average PM2.5 concentration was reduced by 26%, and the number of days experiencing heavy pollution decreased by 44%. Due to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the average PM2.5 concentration in the region was reduced by an additional 24%, and the duration and extent of heavy pollution decreased even further.

Strong biomass burning contribution to ambient aerosol during heating season in a megacity in Northeast China: Effectiveness of agricultural fire bans?

Sustainable use of crop residues remains a challenge in main agricultural regions of China such as the Northeast Plain. Here we investigated the impacts of biomass burning on fine particle (PM2.5) during a six-month long heating season in the Harbin-Changchun (HC) metropolitan area, China's only national-level city cluster located in the severe cold climate region. Temporal variation of PM2.5 was found to coincide with that of levoglucosan. This was attributed to the strong contribution of biomass burning to organic aerosol (the dominant component in PM2.5), as supported by the source apportionment results and high levoglucosan-to-organic carbon (OC) ratios. Furthermore, the variation of biomass burning contribution was inferred to be driven mainly by agricultural fires with relatively low combustion efficiencies, based on a synthesis of the relationship between OC and elemental carbon (EC), the dependence of EC on carbon monoxide, and the relative abundances of different tracers for biomass burning. Nitrate formation was enhanced during biomass burning episodes whereas no evidence was observed to indicate enhanced sulfate formation or net increase of OC mass due to secondary formation. This study demonstrates the importance of open burning as a source of haze pollution in the HC region.

Model vs. observation discrepancy in aerosol characteristics during a half-year long campaign in Northeast China: The role of biomass burning.

Complex air pollutant sources and distinct meteorological conditions resulted in unique wintertime haze pollution in the Harbin-Changchun (HC) metropolitan area, China's only national-level city cluster located in the severe cold climate region. In this study, field observation and air quality modeling were combined to investigate fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution during a six-month long heating season in HC's central city (Harbin). The model significantly underpredicted PM2.5 and organic carbon (by up to ∼230 µg/m3 and 110 µgC/m3, respectively, in terms of daily average) when levoglucosan concentrations were above 0.5 µg/m3. Based on a synthesis of levoglucosan concentrations and fire counts, the large gaps were attributed to underestimation of open burning emissions by the model. However, the model tended to overpredict elemental carbon (more significantly at higher NO2), likely pointing to an overestimation of vehicle emissions. With increasing levoglucosan, the difference between observed and simulated nitrate (nitrateobs ‒ nitratemod, i.e., Δnitrate) showed a transition from negative to positive values. The positive Δnitrate were attributed to underprediction of the open-burning related nitrate, whereas the negative Δnitrate were likely caused by overprediction of nitrate from other sources (presumably vehicle emissions). The dependence of Δnitrate on levoglucosan indicated that with stronger impact of open burning, the overprediction effect was gradually offset and finally overwhelmed. Influence of open burning on sulfate formation was evident as well, but less apparent compared to nitrate. This study illustrates how the uncertainties in open burning emissions will influence PM2.5 simulation, on not only primary components but also secondary species.

Secondary inorganic aerosol during heating season in a megacity in Northeast China: Evidence for heterogeneous chemistry in severe cold climate region.

The characteristics of secondary inorganic aerosol including sulfate, nitrate and ammonium (SNA) were investigated during a six-month long heating season in the Harbin-Changchun metropolitan area, i.e., China's only national-level city cluster located in the severe cold climate region. The contribution of SNA to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) tended to decrease with increasing PM2.5 concentration, opposite to the trend repeatedly observed during winter in Beijing. Heterogeneous sulfate formation was still evident when the daily average temperature was as low as below -10 °C, with the preconditions of high relative humidity (RH; above ∼80%) and high nitrogen dioxide (above ∼60 µg/m3). Both the sulfur oxidation ratio (SOR) and nitrogen oxidation ratio (NOR) were enhanced at high RH, reaching ∼0.3. However, the high RH conditions were not commonly seen during the heating season, which should be responsible for the overall lack of linkage between the SNA contribution and PM2.5 temporal variation.

Efficient data preprocessing, episode classification, and source apportionment of particle number concentrations.

Number concentration is an important index to measure atmospheric particle pollution. However, tailored methods for data preprocessing and characteristic and source analyses of particle number concentrations (PNC) are rare and interpreting the data is time-consuming and inefficient. In this method-oriented study, we develop and investigate some techniques via flexible conditions, C++ optimized algorithms, and parallel computing in R (an open source software for statistics and graphics) to tackle these challenges. The data preprocessing methods include deletions of variables and observations, outlier removal, and interpolation for missing values (NA). They do better in cleaning data and keeping samples and generate no new outliers after interpolation, compared with previous methods. Besides, automatic division of PNC pollution events based on relative values suites PNC properties and highlights the pollution characteristics related to sources and mechanisms. Additionally, basic functions of k-means clustering, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Factor Analysis (FA), Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF), and a newly-introduced model NMF (Non-negative Matrix Factorization) were tested and compared in analyzing PNC sources. Only PMF and NMF can identify coal heating and produce more explicable results, meanwhile NMF apportions more distinctly and runs 11-28 times faster than PMF. Traffic is interannually stable in non-heating periods and always dominant. Coal heating's contribution has decreased by 40%-86% in recent 5 heating periods, reflecting the effectiveness of coal burning control.

Integration of field observation and air quality modeling to characterize Beijing aerosol in different seasons.

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution in Beijing was investigated based on field observation and air quality modeling. Measurement results showed that when using elemental carbon (EC) as the reference component, concurrent increases were observed in the relative abundances of sulfate, nitrate, organic carbon (OC) and water-soluble organic carbon (WSOC) when RH exceeded ∼65% during winter. The observed increases could not be explained by variations of primary biomass burning emissions, instead they likely pointed to heterogeneous chemistry and presumably indicated that formation of secondary inorganic and organic aerosols might be related during winter haze events in Beijing. Large gaps were found in winter when comparing the observational and modeling results. In summer, RH exhibited little influence on the observed sulfate/EC, OC/EC or WSOC/EC, and the observed and modeled results were in general comparable for the concentrations of sulfate, EC and OC. This study suggests that distinct yet poorly-understood atmospheric chemistry may be at play in China's winter haze events, and it could be a substantial challenge to properly incorporate the related mechanisms into air quality models.

Analysis of the origins of black carbon and carbon monoxide transported to Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei in China.

A novel back-trajectory approach was adopted to determine the origins of black carbon (BC) and carbon monoxide (CO) transported to Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. Results showed that the transport efficiency was controlled mainly by mid-latitude westerlies in winter, the South Asian monsoon in summer and prevailing westerly and northwesterly winds in spring and autumn. Hebei was identified as the most important source region of both BC (respectively accounting for 55% and 49%) and CO (39% and 38%) transported to Beijing and Tianjin. Inner Mongolia contributed more to the effective emission intensity (EEI) in winter than in summer for both BC and CO transported to Beijing and Tianjin. Shandong was responsible for higher EEI in summer than in winter. The six provinces making the greatest contributions to BC transported to Hebei were Shandong (19%), Shanxi (19%), Inner Mongolia (17%), Beijing (11%), Henan (11%), and Tianjin (10%), whereas those making the greatest contributions to CO transported to Hebei were Shandong (20%), Inner Mongolia (10%), Tianjin (9%), Henan (9%), Shanxi (9%), and Beijing (8%). In summary, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Tianjin and Shanxi were determined as the dominant source regions of not only BC but also CO transported to Beijing. Hebei, Shandong, Beijing, Inner Mongolia, Henan, Liaoning and Shanxi were relatively important source regions for Tianjin. Shandong, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Beijing, Henan, Tianjin, Liaoning, Jiangsu and Anhui were the main source regions for Hebei. Residential and industrial sectors were the dominant sectors for BC and CO transported to the receptors, respectively. These results are consistent with the results of previous studies. Finally, comparing the observed ΔBC/ΔCO ratio with the enhancement ratio of the EEI of BC with that of CO (ΔEEIBC/ΔEEICO) at Miyun site, we further confirmed that the EEI can be used to represent the amounts of BC and CO reaching receptors.

Uncertainties in thermal-optical measurements of black carbon: Insights from source and ambient samples.

Black carbon (BC) is important due to its complex influences on the environment and on climate in particular. However, reported BC data are largely dependent on measurement techniques due to the multitude of measurement principles. Here we focused on thermal-optical method which has been widely used to determine BC mass (as elemental carbon, EC). Several factors influencing EC measurement were investigated. Results from source samples representing vehicle engine emissions pointed to a continuum of EC components in thermal stability and provided direct observational evidence for the premature evolution of EC in inert atmosphere. It was also found that EC masses may be substantially underestimated for the vehicle exhaust samples if the adopted protocol requires an oxidizing atmosphere to define the split point between organic carbon (OC) and EC. Results from a field campaign conducted during winter in Beijing showed that the optical attenuation (ATN; i.e., the filter transmittance signal, I) was largely saturated for the samples with relatively high loadings, indicating their EC results were unreliable. Improved measurement of EC was achieved by extracting these heavily loaded filters using methanol, given that ATN was considerably reduced by the extraction and, moreover, saturation of ATN (or I) became not evident for the extracted samples. The methanol extraction also significantly reduced the transformation of OC to char-OC, by removing the majority (i.e., ~85%) of the deposited organic aerosols. Higher EC were measured for the extracted samples compared with the untreated ones, indicating that EC tends to be underestimated due to the charring-induced uncertainties. In addition, the methanol extraction largely reduced the inter-protocol discrepancy in the EC measurement results. Similar effects of methanol extraction have been observed during summer in Beijing, despite the seasonal variations of aerosol sources and compositions. This study indicates the potential benefits of methanol extraction for EC measurement.

The characteristics of carbonaceous aerosol in Beijing during a season of transition.

Carbonaceous aerosol was measured during fall of 2010 in Beijing. Daily variation of organic carbon (OC) was found to coincide with that of relative humidity (RH), and the OC to elemental carbon (EC) ratios were more than doubled during the more humid periods (RH above 0.75) compared to other conditions. This large increase in OC/EC could not be explained by the variations of primary biomass burning emissions but was accompanied by a five-fold increase in the sulfate to EC ratio. It was then inferred that secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation was enhanced under the more humid conditions, presumably through aqueous-phase processes. This enhanced SOA formation might be partially associated with particles externally mixed with black carbon, as indicated by the RH-dependent relationships between aerosol optical attenuation and EC loading. In addition, organic aerosols exhibited different properties between the more humid and the other periods, such that they were less volatile and charred more significantly during thermal-optical analysis in the former case. These differences coincided with the evidence of enhanced SOA formation under the more humid conditions. This study highlights the necessity of incorporating aqueous-phase chemistry into air quality models for SOA.

Shipping emission forecasts and cost-benefit analysis of China ports and key regions' control.

China established Domestic Emission Control Area (DECA) for sulphur since 2015 to constrain the increasing shipping emissions. However, future DECA policy-makings are not supported due to a lack of quantitive evaluations. To investigate the effects of current and possible Chinese DECAs policies, a model is presented for the forecast of shipping emissions and evaluation of potential costs and benefits of an DECA policy package set in 2020. It includes a port-level and regional-level projection accounting for shipping trade volume growth, share of ship types, and fuel consumption. The results show that without control measures, both SO2 and particulate matter (PM) emissions are expected to increase by 15.3-61.2% in Jing-Jin-Ji, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Pearl River Delta from 2013 to 2020. However, most emissions can be reduced annually by the establishment of a DECA that depends on the size of the control area and the fuel sulphur content limit. Costs range from 0.667 to 1.561 billion dollars (control regional shipping emissions) based on current fuel price. A social cost method shows the regional control scenarios benefit-cost ratios vary from 4.3 to 5.1 with large uncertainty. Chemical transportation model combined with health model method is used to get the monetary health benefits and then compared with the results from social cost method. This study suggests that Chinese DECAs will reduce the projected emissions at a favorable benefit-cost ratio, and furthermore proposes policy combinations that provide high cost-effective benefits as a reference for future policy-making.

[Patterns of Mortality from Air Pollutant Emissions in China's Coal-fired Power Plants].

Based on the high-resolution coal-fired power plant emission database, GEOS-Chem Adjoint, a global-regional nested atmospheric chemistry model and its adjoint were applied to analyze PM2.5-related premature deaths caused by the power sector in six grid regions of China due to air pollutant emissions and subsequent pollution. The results show that power sector-related PM2.5 pollution caused 106000 (95% CI:68000-132000) premature deaths in 2010, accounting for 9.8% of China's anthropogenic PM2.5-related premature deaths. The health loss intensity (defined as number of premature deaths caused by a unit of power generation) of small and old units is significantly higher than that of large and new units:units with a capacity below 100 MW reach 62 people·(TW·h)-1, 2.8 times that of units with a capacity above 600 MW. Similarly, the health loss intensity of units older than thirty years is 58 people·(TW·h)-1, 2.1 times that of new units. From the perspective of regional grids, the health impact index of Central China is relatively large, reaching 77 people·(TW·h)-1. Further analysis reveals that transregional power transmission led to a net increase of 680 premature deaths compared with the scenario without transmission in 2010. Our study implies that China should accelerate the pace of phasing out small and old units and optimize the power transmission distribution between grid regions to reduce the overall level of pollution and health losses.