Demographic and Clinical Factors Associated with Bacterial or Nonbacterial Etiologies of Acute Undifferentiated Febrile Illness: Findings from a 3-Year Observational Study in Thailand, 2017-2020.

Acute undifferentiated febrile illness (AUFI) is often undiagnosed in Thailand, resulting in delayed or ineffective treatment. We compared the demographic, exposure history, and clinical characteristics of AUFI patients with laboratory evidence of bacterial and nonbacterial pathogens. Patients aged 2-80 years presenting to 12 hospitals in Nakhon Phanom and Tak provinces were enrolled from April 2017 through May 2020. Interviews were conducted and blood, urine, and sputum were collected for culture as well as rapid diagnostic and molecular testing. A total of 1,263 patients tested positive for one or more bacterial, viral, or parasitic pathogens and were included in the analysis. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to compare factors associated with bacterial infections versus nonbacterial infections. Bacterial infections were more commonly identified in participants from Nakhon Phanom than Tak. Bacterial infections were independently associated with several factors including age ≥50 years (adjusted odds ratio [95% CI]): (4.18 [2.85-6.14]), contact with farm animals (1.82 [1.29-2.57]), antibiotic use within 72 hours of hospital presentation (2.37 [1.50-3.74]), jaundice (2.31 [1.15-4.63]), existing comorbidities (2.77 [1.93-3.96]), contact with febrile individuals (0.42 [0.31-0.57]), muscle pain (0.44 [0.31-0.64]), and rash (0.45 [0.29-0.70]). Bacterial infections were also associated with longer hospitalization (2.75 [2.08-3.64]) and lower odds of recovery at the time of discharge (0.14 [0.07-0.31]). Consideration of patient characteristics and signs/symptoms may help to inform targeted laboratory testing for suspected infectious etiologies. Understanding factors associated with bacterial and non-bacterial causes of AUFI may aid diagnosis and judicious use of antibiotics in resource-limited settings.

Underdiagnosis in clinical documentation of community-acquired sepsis among children admitted to hospitals in two rural provinces: Thailand, October-December 2017.

Paediatric sepsis prevalence data from low-income and middle-income countries are lacking. In a cross-sectional study, we assessed clinician recognition and documentation of non-neonatal community-acquired paediatric sepsis in two rural border provinces in Thailand among children admitted between October and December 2017. Of the 152 children meeting sepsis criteria (26.9 paediatric sepsis patients per 1000 admissions), 15 (9.9%) had a clinician-documented admission diagnosis of sepsis or septic shock and 18 (11.8%) had a discharge diagnosis with International Classification of Diseases-10 codes related to sepsis. Clinician underdocumentation may cause challenges in global paediatric sepsis surveillance.

Exposure to Brucella spp. in Humans and Cows in a High Milk-Producing Area of Bangladesh.

Brucellosis is a zoonotic disease, caused by some species within the Brucella genus. The primary and secondary objectives of this cross-sectional study were to determine the seroprevalence of Brucella antibodies in humans and cows and identify risk factors for exposure to Brucella spp. among people in Shahjadpur sub-district, Bangladesh. Twenty-five villages were randomly selected from the 303 milk-producing villages in the sub-district. We randomly selected 5% of the total households from each village. At each household, we collected demographic information and history of potential exposure to Brucella spp. in humans. In addition, we collected serum from household participants and serum and milk from cattle and tested to detect antibodies to Brucella sp. Univariate analysis was performed to detect associations between seropositivity and demographics, risk factors, and behaviors in households. We enrolled 647 households, 1313 humans, and 698 cows. Brucella antibodies were detected in sera from 27 household participants (2.1%, 95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 1.2-2.9%). Eleven (1.6%, 95%CI 0.6-2.4%) cows had detectable Brucella antibodies in either milk or serum. About half (53%) of the 698 cows exhibited more than one reproductive problem within the past year; of these, seven (2%) had Brucella antibodies. Households with seropositive individuals more frequently reported owning cattle (78% vs. 32%, P < 0.001). Despite a low prevalence of Brucella seropositivity in the study, the public health importance of brucellosis cannot be ruled out. Further studies would help define Brucella prevalence and risk factors in this region and nationally.

Habitat selection of Gould's wild turkeys in southeastern Arizona.

In semi-arid environments, resources necessary for survival may be unevenly distributed across the landscape. Gould's wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo mexicana) are spatially restricted to mountainous semi-arid areas of southwestern United States and Mexico, and information on their distribution and habitat use is limited. We described how landcover type and topographical features influenced space use and habitat selection by Gould's wild turkeys in southeastern Arizona. We used GPS data from 51 Gould's wild turkeys to describe resource selection during 2016-2017 in southeastern Arizona, USA. We estimated home ranges and calculated resource selection functions using distance from landcover types, slope, aspect, and elevation at used locations and random locations within individual home ranges. Gould's wild turkeys selected areas closer to pine forest and water. Likewise, Gould's wild turkeys selected locations with moderate elevations of 1641 ± 235 m (range = 1223-2971 m), and on north and west facing slopes with a 10° ± 8.5 (range = 0.0-67.4°) incline. Our findings suggest that conserving portions of the landscape with appropriate topography and landcover types as described above will promote habitat availability for Gould's wild turkeys.

Prevalence and incidence of tuberculosis infection among healthcare workers in chest diseases hospitals, Bangladesh: Putting infection control into context.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare workers (HCWs) are at increased risk of tuberculosis infection (TBI). We estimated the prevalence and incidence of TBI and risk factors among HCWs in Bangladeshi hospitals to target TB infection prevention and control (IPC) interventions. METHODS: During 2013-2016, we conducted a longitudinal study among HCWs in four chest disease hospitals. At baseline, we administered a questionnaire on sociodemographic and occupational factors for TB, tuberculin skin tests (TST) in all hospitals, and QuantiFERON ®-TB Gold in-Tube (QFT-GIT) tests in one hospital. We assessed factors associated with baseline TST positivity (induration ≥10mm), TST conversion (induration increase ≥10mm from baseline), baseline QFT-GIT positivity (interferon-gamma ≥0.35 IU/mL), and QFT-GIT conversion (interferon-gamma <0.35 IU/mL to ≥0.35 IU/mL). We included factors with a biologically plausible relationship with TBI identified in prior studies or having an association (p = <0.20) in the bivariate analyses with TST positivity or QFT-GIT positivity in multivariable generalized linear models. The Kaplan-Meier was used to estimate the cumulative TBI incidence rate per 100 person-years. RESULTS: Of the 758 HCWs invited, 732 (97%) consented to participate and 731 completed the one-step TST, 40% had a positive TST result, and 48% had a positive QFT-GIT result. In multivariable models, HCWs years of service 11-20 years had 2.1 (95% CI: 1.5-3.0) times higher odds of being TST-positive and 1.6 (95% CI 1.1-2.5) times higher odds of QFT-GIT-positivity at baseline compared with those working ≤10 years. HCWs working 11-20 years in pulmonary TB ward had 2.0 (95% CI: 1.4-2.9) times higher odds of TST positivity, and those >20 years had 2.5 (95% CI: 1.3-4.9) times higher odds of QFT-GIT-positivity at baseline compared with those working <10 years. TBI incidence was 4.8/100 person-years by TST and 4.2/100 person-years by QFT-GIT. Females had 8.5 (95% CI: 1.5-49.5) times higher odds of TST conversion than males. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalent TST and QFT-GIT positivity was associated with an increased number of years working as a healthcare worker and in pulmonary TB wards. The incidence of TBI among HCWs suggests ongoing TB exposure in these facilities and an urgent need for improved TB IPC in chest disease hospitals in Bangladesh.

Pneumococcal colonization and severity of pneumonia in hospitalized Cambodian children following introduction of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine.

Objectives: This study sought to characterize pneumococcal colonization and clinical/radiological features in Cambodian children admitted to hospital with an illness compatible with pneumonia following national introduction of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13). Methods: Children aged 0-59 months admitted to Angkor Hospital for Children who met the World Health Organization (WHO) case definition for clinical pneumonia were enrolled over a 3-year period. Clinical, radiological and vaccination data were collected at enrolment. A nasopharyngeal swab was collected for detection of pneumococcal colonization using the WHO standard culture method. Results: Between 1 September 2015 and 31August 2018, 2209 analysable illness episodes were enrolled. Pneumococci were detected in 943/2209 (42.7%) children. PCV13 serotypes were detected less frequently in children who had been vaccinated appropriately for their age compared with undervaccinated children: 309/567 (53.6%) vs 216/342 (63.2%) (P=0.006). Age-appropriate PCV13 vaccination was negatively associated with hypoxic presentation [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.72, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.60-0.87; P=0.0006] and primary endpoint pneumonia on chest x ray (aOR 0.69, 95% CI 0.54-0.90; P=0.006). Conclusions: The introduction of PCV13 in Cambodia was associated with a decline in vaccine serotype nasopharyngeal colonization, and clinical and radiological severity in children hospitalized with clinical pneumonia.

Occurrence of tuberculosis among people exposed to cattle in Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) has been an important public health concern in Bangladesh. The most common cause of human TB is Mycobacterium tuberculosis, while bovine TB is caused by Mycobacterium bovis. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to determine the frequency of TB in individuals with occupational exposure to cattle and to detect Mycobacterium bovis among cattle in slaughterhouses in Bangladesh. METHODS: Between August 2014 and September 2015, an observational study was conducted in two government chest disease hospitals, one cattle market, and two slaughterhouses. [Correction added on 27 June 2023, after first online publication: In the preceding sentence, the year "2014" has been added after the word "August".] Sputum samples were collected from individuals who met the criteria for suspected TB and had been exposed to cattle. Tissue samples were collected from cattle that had low body condition score(s). Both humans and cattle samples were screened for acid-fast bacilli (AFB) by Ziehl-Neelsen (Z-N) staining and cultured for Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTC). Region of difference (RD) 9-based polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was also performed to identify Mycobacterium spp. We also conducted Spoligotyping to identify the specific strain of Mycobacterium spp. RESULTS: Sputum was collected from a total of 412 humans. The median age of human participants was 35 (IQR: 25-50) years. Twenty-five (6%) human sputum specimens were positive for AFB, and 44 (11%) were positive for MTC by subsequent culture. All (N = 44) culture-positive isolates were confirmed as Mycobacterium tuberculosis by RD9 PCR. Besides, 10% of cattle workers were infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis in the cattle market. Of all TB (caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis) infected individuals, 6.8% of individuals were resistant to one or two anti-TB drugs. The majority of the sampled cattle (67%) were indigenous breeds. No Mycobacterium bovis was detected in cattle. CONCLUSIONS: We did not detect any TB cases caused by Mycobacterium bovis in humans during the study. However, we detected TB cases caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis in all humans, including cattle market workers.

Human Exposure to Bats, Rodents and Monkeys in Bangladesh.

Bats, rodents and monkeys are reservoirs for emerging zoonotic infections. We sought to describe the frequency of human exposure to these animals and the seasonal and geographic variation of these exposures in Bangladesh. During 2013-2016, we conducted a cross-sectional survey in a nationally representative sample of 10,002 households from 1001 randomly selected communities. We interviewed household members about exposures to bats, rodents and monkeys, including a key human-bat interface-raw date palm sap consumption. Respondents reported observing rodents (90%), bats (52%) and monkeys (2%) in or around their households, although fewer reported direct contact. The presence of monkeys around the household was reported more often in Sylhet division (7%) compared to other divisions. Households in Khulna (17%) and Rajshahi (13%) were more likely to report drinking date palm sap than in other divisions (1.5-5.6%). Date palm sap was mostly consumed during winter with higher frequencies in January (16%) and February (12%) than in other months (0-5.6%). There was a decreasing trend in drinking sap over the three years. Overall, we observed substantial geographic and seasonal patterns in human exposure to animals that could be sources of zoonotic disease. These findings could facilitate targeting emerging zoonoses surveillance, research and prevention efforts to areas and seasons with the highest levels of exposure.

Assessing perceptions of establishing a vaccine pooled procurement mechanism for the Western Pacific Region.

This study explored the demand and interest among countries in the World Health Organization Western Pacific Region (WPR) to establish and participate in a regional vaccine pooled procurement mechanism. National counterparts affiliated with Ministries of Health that are involved in the national procurement of vaccines within the WPR were identified and invited to complete surveys. Out of 80 counterparts invited, 17 (21%) responded, representing 13 of the 27 WPR countries. Five countries expressed interest in participating in a regional pooled procurement mechanism, 3 expressed lack of interest and 5 did not respond to the question. Preferred characteristics of the procurement mechanism, included flexible participation (i.e. non-compulsory), payment in local currency before receipt of goods and a fixed price for vaccines (i.e. not tiered pricing). Vaccine pricing disparities were noted among upper middle-income and high-income countries for five of the 13 routine vaccines surveyed. Eight countries listed budget planning, quality of vaccines, timely delivery, cost-saving and payment after receipt as potential benefits of pooled procurement.

The economic burden of rotavirus hospitalization among children < 5 years of age in selected hospitals in Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Rotavirus is a common cause of severe acute gastroenteritis among young children. Estimation of the economic burden would provide informed decision about investment on prevention strategies (e.g., vaccine and/or behavior change), which has been a potential policy discussion in Bangladesh for several years. METHODS: We estimated the societal costs of children <5 years for hospitalization from rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) and incidences of catastrophic health expenditure. A total of 360 children with stool specimens positive for rotavirus were included in this study from 6 tertiary hospitals (3 public and 3 private). We interviewed the caregiver of the patient and hospital staff to collect cost from patient and health facility perspectives. We estimated the economic cost considering 2015 as the reference year. RESULTS: The total societal per-patient costs to treat RVGE in the public hospital were 126 USD (95% CI: 116-136) and total household costs were 161 USD (95% CI: 145-177) in private facilities. Direct costs constituted 38.1% of total household costs. The out-of-pocket payments for RVGE hospitalization was 23% of monthly income and 76% of households faced catastrophic healthcare expenditures due to this expense. The estimated total annual household treatment cost for the country was 10 million USD. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial economic burden of RVGE in Bangladesh was observed in this study. Any prevention of RVGE through cost-effective vaccination or/and behavioural change would contribute to substantial economic benefits to Bangladesh.

The Global Landscape of Pediatric Bacterial Meningitis Data Reported to the World Health Organization-Coordinated Invasive Bacterial Vaccine-Preventable Disease Surveillance Network, 2014-2019.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) coordinates the Global Invasive Bacterial Vaccine-Preventable Diseases (IB-VPD) Surveillance Network to support vaccine introduction decisions and use. The network was established to strengthen surveillance and laboratory confirmation of meningitis caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, and Neisseria meningitidis. METHODS: Sentinel hospitals report cases of children <5 years of age hospitalized for suspected meningitis. Laboratories report confirmatory testing results and strain characterization tested by polymerase chain reaction. In 2019, the network included 123 laboratories that follow validated, standardized testing and reporting strategies. RESULTS: From 2014 through 2019, >137 000 suspected meningitis cases were reported by 58 participating countries, with 44.6% (n = 61 386) reported from countries in the WHO African Region. More than half (56.6%, n = 77 873) were among children <1 year of age, and 4.0% (n = 4010) died among those with reported disease outcome. Among suspected meningitis cases, 8.6% (n = 11 798) were classified as probable bacterial meningitis. One of 3 bacterial pathogens was identified in 30.3% (n = 3576) of these cases, namely S. pneumoniae (n = 2177 [60.9%]), H. influenzae (n = 633 [17.7%]), and N. meningitidis (n = 766 [21.4%]). Among confirmed bacterial meningitis cases with outcome reported, 11.0% died; case fatality ratio varied by pathogen (S. pneumoniae, 12.2%; H. influenzae, 6.1%; N. meningitidis, 11.0%). Among the 277 children who died with confirmed bacterial meningitis, 189 (68.2%) had confirmed S. pneumoniae. The proportion of pneumococcal cases with pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) serotypes decreased as the number of countries implementing PCV increased, from 77.8% (n = 273) to 47.5% (n = 248). Of 397 H. influenzae specimens serotyped, 49.1% (n = 195) were type b. Predominant N. meningitidis serogroups varied by region. CONCLUSIONS: This multitier, global surveillance network has supported countries in detecting and serotyping the 3 principal invasive bacterial pathogens that cause pediatric meningitis. Streptococcus pneumoniae was the most common bacterial pathogen detected globally despite the growing number of countries that have nationally introduced PCV. The large proportions of deaths due to S. pneumoniae reflect the high proportion of meningitis cases caused by this pathogen. This global network demonstrated a strong correlation between PCV introduction status and reduction in the proportion of pneumococcal meningitis infections caused by vaccine serotypes. Maintaining case-based, active surveillance with laboratory confirmation for prioritized vaccine-preventable diseases remains a critical component of the global agenda in public health.The World Health Organization (WHO)-coordinated Invasive Bacterial Vaccine-Preventable Disease (IB-VPD) Surveillance Network reported data from 2014 to 2019, contributing to the estimates of the disease burden and serotypes of pediatric meningitis caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae and Neisseria meningitidis.

Phylogeography of Cedros and Tiburón Island Mule Deer in North America's Desert Southwest.

Though mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) persist in robust populations throughout most of their North American distribution, habitat loss, unregulated hunting, and other factors have reduced their historical range in México. Two of the 6 putative subspecies inhabiting México's deserts and Baja California peninsula are of conservation concern, occupying islands in the Pacific Ocean (Odocoileus hemionus cerrosensis on Cedros Island: endangered) and Sea of Cortés (Odocoileus hemionus sheldoni on Tiburón Island: threatened). Focusing on the desert southwest (n = 448), we sampled Tiburón (n = 22) and Cedros (n = 15) Island mule deer using contemporary samples and natural history museum specimens to complete a phylogeographic evaluation of the species complex, and assess the phylogeography of these insular subspecies. Both insular subspecies formed endemic haplotype lineages, consistent with island biogeographic theory. Bayesian skyline plots were consistent with Holocene demographic expansion. Cedros Island deer were genetically most similar to adjacent mainland Baja California deer, but exhibited a suite of unique haplotypes and reduced genetic variation. Tiburón Island deer haplotypes unexpectedly nested within a mainland lineage found in distant New Mexico, rather than the adjacent mainland Sonoran lineage. Such findings suggest the importance of postglacial climate fluctuations and biotic community turnover in the phylogeographic history of mule deer in the desert southwest. Our genetic data corroborates cultural, archaeological, and phenotypic evidence supporting Cedros and Tiburón deer endemicity and subspecies status. Reduced genetic variation, divergence from mainland populations, and demographic trends on both islands indicate that conservation, monitoring, and management are critical to ensure persistence of these endemic insular subspecies.

Epidemiology of Japanese encephalitis in the Philippines prior to routine immunization.

BACKGROUND: Findings were published in 2015 that highlighted the endemicity of Japanese Encephalitis (JE) in the Philippines. The policymakers responded by conducting an immunization campaign and strengthening the surveillance system. Using data on the revitalized surveillance system, the epidemiology of JE in the country was updated. METHODS: Electronic databases were searched, and conference proceedings related to JE in the Philippines were identified until 31 December 2018. Surveillance data from 01 January 2014 to 31 December 2017 were used. The 2015 population census was used to estimate the national and regional incidence for children aged <15 years. RESULTS: Four studies reported the seroprevalence of JE in the Philippines, which showed increasing seroprevalence with increasing age. Seroprevalence rates were from 0% for infants (aged <1 year) to 65.7% in adolescents (12-18 years) before the immunization campaign. Among five studies on the clinical profile of JE, case fatality ranged from 0 to 21.1% and neurologic sequelae ranged from 5.2 to 81.8% of diagnosed cases. In the surveillance data, JE cases peaked annually from July to October, coinciding with the wet season. The national incidence was estimated at a minimum of 0.7 JE cases/100,000 among children aged <15 years, but higher rates were seen in the northern regions of the country. CONCLUSION: Improved surveillance affirmed the burden of JE in the Philippines. A subnational immunization campaign in April 2019 was conducted in the northern regions of the country. This paper highlights the importance of including the JE vaccine in the immunization program and sustained high-quality surveillance to monitor its impact on JE control.

Increasing vaccination coverage: The school entry vaccination record check program in Guizhou Province China, 2003-2018.

BACKGROUND: Guizhou Province of China implements a vaccination program specifying that children's vaccination records are to be checked upon entry to kindergarten and primary school; children missing one or more recommended vaccinations are to be offered the missed vaccinations; school-level vaccination coverage levels are assessed at the time of school enrollment and six months later to monitor compliance rates. METHODS: We obtained the number of doses of each vaccine in the national immunization schedule that were administered before and six months after kindergarten and school enrollment and reported to Guizhou Province during 2004 through 2018. We determined temporal trends in coverage of the second dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV2) and other vaccines, incidence of measles, and number of school-based measles outbreaks. RESULTS: MCV2 coverage at kindergarten entry increased from 53% in 2004 to 98% in 2018. Among children missing one or more vaccinations, the six-month catch-up rate of MCV2 increased from 80% in 2004 to 99% in 2018. Among primary school children, coverage of MCV2 and other recommended vaccines had similar increases. The annual incidence of measles among Guizhou's total population declined from 280 per million in 2003 to 0.3 per million in 2018. There have been no measles outbreaks in kindergartens or schools since 2015. CONCLUSIONS: Checking vaccination record at kindergartens and primary schools and providing necessary catch-up vaccination was associated with increased coverage of measles and other vaccines, lower incidence of measles, and an apparent end to school-based measles outbreaks. Guizhou's experience of checking vaccination records at school enrollment led to implementation of this strategy in other provinces. In 2019, the kindergarten and school entry vaccination record check program was incorporated into China's national vaccine law.

Impact of 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine on Colonization and Invasive Disease in Cambodian Children.

BACKGROUND: Cambodia introduced the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in January 2015 using a 3 + 0 dosing schedule and no catch-up campaign. We investigated the effects of this introduction on pneumococcal colonization and invasive disease in children aged <5 years. METHODS: There were 6 colonization surveys done between January 2014 and January 2018 in children attending the outpatient department of a nongovernmental pediatric hospital in Siem Reap. Nasopharyngeal swabs were analyzed by phenotypic and genotypic methods to detect pneumococcal serotypes and antimicrobial resistance. Invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) data for January 2012-December 2018 were retrieved from hospital databases. Pre-PCV IPD data and pre-/post-PCV colonization data were modelled to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE). RESULTS: Comparing 2014 with 2016-2018, and using adjusted prevalence ratios, VE estimates for colonization were 16.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 10.6-21.8) for all pneumococci and 39.2% (95% CI 26.7-46.1) for vaccine serotype (VT) pneumococci. There was a 26.0% (95% CI 17.7-33.0) decrease in multidrug-resistant pneumococcal colonization. The IPD incidence was estimated to have declined by 26.4% (95% CI 14.4-35.8) by 2018, with a decrease of 36.3% (95% CI 23.8-46.9) for VT IPD and an increase of 101.4% (95% CI 62.0-145.4) for non-VT IPD. CONCLUSIONS: Following PCV13 introduction into the Cambodian immunization schedule, there have been declines in VT pneumococcal colonization and disease in children aged <5 years. Modelling of dominant serotype colonization data produced plausible VE estimates.

Hunting and mountain sheep: Do current harvest practices affect horn growth?

The influence of human harvest on evolution of secondary sexual characteristics has implications for sustainable management of wildlife populations. The phenotypic consequences of selectively removing males with large horns or antlers from ungulate populations have been a topic of heightened concern in recent years. Harvest can affect size of horn-like structures in two ways: (a) shifting age structure toward younger age classes, which can reduce the mean size of horn-like structures, or (b) selecting against genes that produce large, fast-growing males. We evaluated effects of age, climatic and forage conditions, and metrics of harvest on horn size and growth of mountain sheep (Ovis canadensis ssp.) in 72 hunt areas across North America from 1981 to 2016. In 50% of hunt areas, changes in mean horn size during the study period were related to changes in age structure of harvested sheep. Environmental conditions explained directional changes in horn growth in 28% of hunt areas, 7% of which did not exhibit change before accounting for effects of the environment. After accounting for age and environment, horn size of mountain sheep was stable or increasing in the majority (~78%) of hunt areas. Age-specific horn size declined in 44% of hunt areas where harvest was regulated solely by morphological criteria, which supports the notion that harvest practices that are simultaneously selective and intensive might lead to changes in horn growth. Nevertheless, phenotypic consequences are not a foregone conclusion in the face of selective harvest; over half of the hunt areas with highly selective and intensive harvest did not exhibit age-specific declines in horn size. Our results demonstrate that while harvest regimes are an important consideration, horn growth of harvested male mountain sheep has remained largely stable, indicating that changes in horn growth patterns are an unlikely consequence of harvest across most of North America.

Global impact of rotavirus vaccine introduction on rotavirus hospitalisations among children under 5 years of age, 2008-16: findings from the Global Rotavirus Surveillance Network.

BACKGROUND: Rotavirus vaccine use in national immunisation programmes has led to declines in hospital admissions for rotavirus gastroenteritis among children; however, the global impact of rotavirus vaccine introduction has not been described using primary data. We describe the impact of rotavirus vaccine introduction on admissions for acute rotavirus gastroenteritis in primarily low-income and middle-income countries, using 9 years of data from the WHO-coordinated Global Rotavirus Surveillance Network (GRSN). METHODS: Between Jan 1, 2008, and Dec 31, 2016, children younger than 5 years of age who were admitted to hospital with acute gastroenteritis were prospectively enrolled in GRSN sites. We included sites that enrolled children and collected stool specimens monthly and tested at least 100 specimens annually in the impact analysis, with a separate analysis taking into account site continuity. We compared proportions of acute gastroenteritis cases positive for rotavirus in the pre-vaccine and post-vaccine periods and calculated mean proportion changes for WHO regions, with 95% CIs; these findings were then compared with interrupted time series analyses. We did further sensitivity analyses to account for rotavirus vaccination coverage levels and sites that collected specimens for at least 11 months per year and tested at least 80 specimens per year. We also analysed the age distribution of rotavirus-positive cases before and after vaccine introduction. FINDINGS: 403 140 children younger than 5 years of age admitted to hospital with acute gastroenteritis from 349 sites in 82 countries were enrolled over the study period, of whom 132 736 (32·9%) were positive for rotavirus. We included 305 789 children from 198 sites in 69 countries in the impact analysis. In countries that had not introduced rotavirus vaccine in their national immunisation programmes, rotavirus was detected in 38·0% (95% CI 4·8-73·4) of admissions for acute gastroenteritis annually whereas in those that have introduced the vaccine, rotavirus was detected in 23·0% (0·7-57·7) of admissions for acute gastroenteritis, showing a 39·6% (35·4-43·8) relative decline following introduction. Interrupted time series analyses confirmed these findings. Reductions by WHO regions ranged from 26·4% (15·0-37·8) in the Eastern Mediterranean Region to 55·2% (43·0-67·4) in the European Region and were sustained in nine countries (contributing up to 31 sites) for 6-10 years. The age distribution of children with rotavirus gastroenteritis shifted towards older children after rotavirus vaccine introduction. INTERPRETATION: A significant and sustained reduction in the proportion of hospital admissions for acute gastroenteritis due to rotavirus was seen among children younger than 5 years in GRSN sites following rotavirus vaccine introduction. These findings highlight the need to incorporate rotavirus vaccines into immunisation programmes in countries that have not yet introduced them and underline the importance of high-quality surveillance. FUNDING: The GRSN receives funding from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. No specific funding was provided for this Article.

Nationally-representative serostudy of dengue in Bangladesh allows generalizable disease burden estimates.

Serostudies are needed to answer generalizable questions on disease risk. However, recruitment is usually biased by age or location. We present a nationally-representative study for dengue from 70 communities in Bangladesh. We collected data on risk factors, trapped mosquitoes and tested serum for IgG. Out of 5866 individuals, 24% had evidence of historic infection, ranging from 3% in the north to >80% in Dhaka. Being male (aOR:1.8, [95%CI:1.5-2.0]) and recent travel (aOR:1.3, [1.1-1.8]) were linked to seropositivity. We estimate that 40 million [34.3-47.2] people have been infected nationally, with 2.4 million ([1.3-4.5]) annual infections. Had we visited only 20 communities, seropositivity estimates would have ranged from 13% to 37%, highlighting the lack of representativeness generated by small numbers of communities. Our findings have implications for both the design of serosurveys and tackling dengue in Bangladesh.

Genetic assessment of a bighorn sheep population expansion in the Silver Bell Mountains, Arizona.

BACKGROUND: The isolated population of desert bighorn sheep in the Silver Bell Mountains of southern Arizona underwent an unprecedented expansion in merely four years. We hypothesized that immigration from neighboring bighorn sheep populations could have caused the increase in numbers as detected by Arizona Game and Fish Department annual aerial counts. METHODS: We applied a multilocus genetic approach using mitochondrial DNA and nuclear microsatellite markers for genetic analyses to find evidence of immigration. We sampled the Silver Bell Mountains bighorn sheep before (2003) and during (2015) the population expansion, and a small number of available samples from the Gila Mountains (southwestern Arizona) and the Morenci Mine (Rocky Mountain bighorn) in an attempt to identify the source of putative immigrants and, more importantly, to serve as comparisons for genetic diversity metrics. RESULTS: We did not find evidence of substantial gene flow into the Silver Bell Mountains population. We did not detect any new mitochondrial haplotypes in the 2015 bighorn sheep samples. The microsatellite analyses detected only one new allele, in one individual from the 2015 population that was not detected in the 2003 samples. Overall, the genetic diversity of the Silver Bell Mountains population was lower than that seen in either the Gila population or the Morenci Mine population. DISCUSSION: Even though the results of this study did not help elucidate the precise reason for the recent population expansion, continued monitoring and genetic sampling could provide more clarity on the genetic demographics of this population.