The Lung Cancer Prediction Model "Stress Test": Assessment of Models' Performance in a High-Risk Prospective Pulmonary Nodule Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Pulmonary nodules represent a growing health care burden because of delayed diagnosis of malignant lesions and overtesting for benign processes. Clinical prediction models were developed to inform physician assessment of pretest probability of nodule malignancy but have not been validated in a high-risk cohort of nodules for which biopsy was ultimately performed. RESEARCH QUESTION: Do guideline-recommended prediction models sufficiently discriminate between benign and malignant nodules when applied to cases referred for biopsy by navigational bronchoscopy? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We assembled a prospective cohort of 322 indeterminate pulmonary nodules in 282 patients referred to a tertiary medical center for diagnostic navigational bronchoscopy between 2017 and 2019. We calculated the probability of malignancy for each nodule using the Brock model, Mayo Clinic model, and Veterans Affairs (VA) model. On a subset of 168 patients who also had PET-CT scans before biopsy, we also calculated the probability of malignancy using the Herder model. The performance of the models was evaluated by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) for each model. RESULTS: The study cohort contained 185 malignant and 137 benign nodules (57% prevalence of malignancy). The malignant and benign cohorts were similar in terms of size, with a median longest diameter for benign and malignant nodules of 15 and 16 mm, respectively. The Brock model, Mayo Clinic model, and VA model showed similar performance in the entire cohort (Brock AUC, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.64-0.76; Mayo Clinic AUC, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.64-0.76; VA AUC, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.62-0.74). For 168 nodules with available PET-CT scans, the Herder model had an AUC of 0.77 (95% CI, 0.68-0.85). INTERPRETATION: Currently available clinical models provide insufficient discrimination between benign and malignant nodules in the common clinical scenario in which a patient is being referred for biopsy, especially when PET-CT scan information is not available.

Update on Biomarkers for the Stratification of Indeterminate Pulmonary Nodules.

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related deaths. Early detection and diagnosis are critical, as survival decreases with advanced stages. Approximately 1.6 million nodules are incidentally detected every year on chest CT scan images in the United States. This number of nodules identified is likely much larger after accounting for screening-detected nodules. Most of these nodules, whether incidentally or screening detected, are benign. Despite this, many patients undergo unnecessary invasive procedures to rule out cancer because our current stratification approaches are suboptimal, particularly for intermediate probability nodules. Thus, noninvasive strategies are urgently needed. Biomarkers have been developed to assist through the continuum of lung cancer care and include blood protein-based biomarkers, liquid biopsies, quantitative imaging analysis (radiomics), exhaled volatile organic compounds, and bronchial or nasal epithelium genomic classifiers, among others. Although many biomarkers have been developed, few have been integrated into clinical practice as they lack clinical utility studies showing improved patient-centered outcomes. Rapid technologic advances and large network collaborative efforts will continue to drive the discovery and validation of many novel biomarkers. Ultimately, however, randomized clinical utility studies showing improved patient outcomes will be required to bring biomarkers into clinical practice.

Longitudinal lung cancer prediction convolutional neural network model improves the classification of indeterminate pulmonary nodules.

A deep learning model (LCP CNN) for the stratification of indeterminate pulmonary nodules (IPNs) demonstrated better discrimination than commonly used clinical prediction models. However, the LCP CNN score is based on a single timepoint that ignores longitudinal information when prior imaging studies are available. Clinically, IPNs are often followed over time and temporal trends in nodule size or morphology inform management. In this study we investigated whether the change in LCP CNN scores over time was different between benign and malignant nodules. This study used a prospective-specimen collection, retrospective-blinded-evaluation (PRoBE) design. Subjects with incidentally or screening detected IPNs 6-30 mm in diameter with at least 3 consecutive CT scans prior to diagnosis (slice thickness ≤ 1.5 mm) with the same nodule present were included. Disease outcome was adjudicated by biopsy-proven malignancy, biopsy-proven benign disease and absence of growth on at least 2-year imaging follow-up. Lung nodules were analyzed using the Optellum LCP CNN model. Investigators performing image analysis were blinded to all clinical data. The LCP CNN score was determined for 48 benign and 32 malignant nodules. There was no significant difference in the initial LCP CNN score between benign and malignant nodules. Overall, the LCP CNN scores of benign nodules remained relatively stable over time while that of malignant nodules continued to increase over time. The difference in these two trends was statistically significant. We also developed a joint model that incorporates longitudinal LCP CNN scores to predict future probability of cancer. Malignant and benign nodules appear to have distinctive trends in LCP CNN score over time. This suggests that longitudinal modeling may improve radiomic prediction of lung cancer over current models. Additional studies are needed to validate these early findings.

Effect of a fluid bolus on cardiovascular collapse among critically ill adults undergoing tracheal intubation (PrePARE): a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Tracheal intubation is common in the care of critically ill adults and is frequently complicated by hypotension, cardiac arrest, or death. We aimed to evaluate administration of an intravenous fluid bolus to prevent cardiovascular collapse during intubation of critically ill adults. METHODS: We did a pragmatic, multicentre, unblinded, randomised trial in nine sites (eight ICUs and one emergency department) around the USA. Critically ill adults (≥18 years) undergoing tracheal intubation were randomly assigned (1:1, block sizes of 2, 4, and 6, stratified by study site) to either an intravenous infusion of 500 mL of crystalloid solution or no fluid bolus. The primary outcome, assessed in the intention-to-treat population, was cardiovascular collapse, defined as a new systolic blood pressure <65 mm Hg; new or increased vasopressor receipt between induction and 2 min after tracheal intubation; or cardiac arrest or death within 1 h of tracheal intubation. Adverse events were assessed in the as-treated population. This trial, which is now complete, is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT03026777. FINDINGS: Patients were enrolled from Feb 6, 2017, to Jan 9, 2018, when the data and safety monitoring board stopped the trial on the basis of futility. By trial termination, 337 (63%) of 537 screened adults had been randomly assigned. Cardiovascular collapse occurred in 33 (20%) of 168 patients in the fluid bolus group compared with 31 (18%) of 169 patients in the no fluid bolus group (absolute difference 1·3% [95% CI -7·1% to 9·7%]; p=0·76). The individual components of the cardiovascular collapse composite outcome did not differ between groups (new systolic blood pressure <65 mm Hg 11 [7%] in the bolus group vs ten [6%] in the no-bolus group, new or increased vasopressor 32 [19%] vs 31 [18%], cardiac arrest within 1 h seven [4%] vs two [1%], death within 1 h of intubation two [1%] vs one [1%]). In-hospital mortality was not significantly different in the fluid bolus group (48 [29%]) compared with no fluid bolus (59 [35%]). INTERPRETATION: Administration of an intravenous fluid bolus did not decrease the overall incidence of cardiovascular collapse during tracheal intubation of critically ill adults compared with no fluid bolus in this trial. FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health.

Bag-Mask Ventilation during Tracheal Intubation of Critically Ill Adults.

BACKGROUND: Hypoxemia is the most common complication during tracheal intubation of critically ill adults and may increase the risk of cardiac arrest and death. Whether positive-pressure ventilation with a bag-mask device (bag-mask ventilation) during tracheal intubation of critically ill adults prevents hypoxemia without increasing the risk of aspiration remains controversial. METHODS: In a multicenter, randomized trial conducted in seven intensive care units in the United States, we randomly assigned adults undergoing tracheal intubation to receive either ventilation with a bag-mask device or no ventilation between induction and laryngoscopy. The primary outcome was the lowest oxygen saturation observed during the interval between induction and 2 minutes after tracheal intubation. The secondary outcome was the incidence of severe hypoxemia, defined as an oxygen saturation of less than 80%. RESULTS: Among the 401 patients enrolled, the median lowest oxygen saturation was 96% (interquartile range, 87 to 99) in the bag-mask ventilation group and 93% (interquartile range, 81 to 99) in the no-ventilation group (P = 0.01). A total of 21 patients (10.9%) in the bag-mask ventilation group had severe hypoxemia, as compared with 45 patients (22.8%) in the no-ventilation group (relative risk, 0.48; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.30 to 0.77). Operator-reported aspiration occurred during 2.5% of intubations in the bag-mask ventilation group and during 4.0% in the no-ventilation group (P = 0.41). The incidence of new opacity on chest radiography in the 48 hours after tracheal intubation was 16.4% and 14.8%, respectively (P = 0.73). CONCLUSIONS: Among critically ill adults undergoing tracheal intubation, patients receiving bag-mask ventilation had higher oxygen saturations and a lower incidence of severe hypoxemia than those receiving no ventilation. (Funded by Vanderbilt Institute for Clinical and Translational Research and others; PreVent ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03026322.).

BCNU wafer placement with temozolomide (TMZ) in the immediate postoperative period after tumor resection followed by radiation therapy with TMZ in patients with newly diagnosed high grade glioma: final results of a prospective, multi-institutional, phase II trial.

Temozolomide (TMZ) and BCNU have demonstrated anti-glioma synergism in preclinical models. We report final data from a prospective, multi-institutional study of BCNU wafers and early TMZ followed by radiation therapy with TMZ in patients with newly diagnosed malignant glioma. 65 patients were consented in 4 institutions, and 46 patients (43 GBM, 3 AA) were eligible for analysis. After resection and BCNU wafer placement, TMZ began on day four postoperatively. Radiation and TMZ (RT/TMZ) were then administered, followed by monthly TMZ at 200 mg/m2 for the first 26 patients, which was reduced to 150 mg/m2 for the remaining 20 patients. Non-hematologic toxicities were minimal. Nine of 27 patients (33 %) who received 200 mg/m2 TMZ, but only 1 of 20 (5 %) who received 150 mg/m2, experienced grade 3/4 thrombocytopenia. Median progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) period was 8.5 and 18 months, respectively. The 1-year OS rate was 76 %, which is a significant improvement compared with the historical control 1-year OS rate of 59 % (p = 0.023). However, there was no difference in 1-year OS compared with standard RT/TMZ (p = 0.12) or BCNU wafer followed by RT/TMZ (p = 0.87) in post hoc analyses. Early post-operative TMZ can be safely administered with BCNU wafers following resection of malignant glioma at the 150 mg/m2 dose level. Although there was an OS benefit compared to historical control, there was no indication of benefit for BCNU wafers and early TMZ in addition to standard RT/TMZ or early TMZ in addition to regimens of BCNU wafers followed by RT/TMZ.