Deferral of Treatment for Small Choroidal Melanoma and the Risk of Metastasis: An Investigation Using the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online (LUMPO).

BACKGROUND: We estimated metastatic-death risk when the treatment of small choroidal melanomas is deferred until growth is observed. METHODS: In 24 patients with choroidal melanoma (median diameter 5.85 mm), the exponential growth rate estimated by a mixed-effects model was 4.3% per year. Using the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online v.3 (LUMPO3), we measured changes in 15-year metastatic and non-metastatic death risks according to whether the tumor is treated immediately or after observing growth 4 or 12 months later, considering age, sex, and metastasis predictors. RESULTS: In 40-year-old females with 10 mm, disomy 3 and monosomy 3 choroidal melanomas (prevalence 16%), the 15-year absolute risks of metastatic death are 4.2% and 76.6%, respectively, increasing after a 4-month delay by 0.0% and 0.2% and by 3.0% and 2.3% with tumor growth rates of 5.0% and 20.0%, respectively. With 12-month delays, these risks increase by 0.0% and 0.5% and by 1.0% and 7.1%, respectively. Increases in metastatic-death risk are less with smaller tumors and with a higher risk of non-metastatic death. CONCLUSIONS: Deferring treatment of choroidal melanomas until documentation of growth may delay iatrogenic visual loss by months or years and is associated with minimal increase in metastatic mortality, at least with small tumors with usual growth rates of up to 40% per year.

Associations between empirically proportionate and disproportionate fears of cancer recurrence and anxiety and depression in uveal melanoma survivors: Five-year prospective study.

OBJECTIVE: Fear of cancer recurrence (FCR) may develop into elevated anxiety or depression symptoms, but few risk factors for this development are known. Objective recurrence risk estimation is possible in some cancers. Using theories of risk communication and phobias, we examined whether the proportionality of FCR to known objective recurrence risk influences the development of anxiety and depression symptoms. METHOD: Uveal melanoma (UM) patients can opt for reliable prognostic testing. Patients experience either a 'good' or 'poor' prognostic outcome, whereby 10-year mortality due to metastatic disease is, respectively, low or high. In a five-year prospective study of a consecutive sample of 589 UM survivors, we used random intercept cross lagged panel analyses to examine whether proportionality differentially influences whether FCR progresses to anxiety and depression. RESULTS: Positive cross paths predicting anxiety from FCR were stronger in the poor prognosis group than the good prognosis and not tested groups. Prognostic group differences were not evident for depression. CONCLUSIONS: FCR was more likely to progress to elevated anxiety symptoms when proportionate to the known objective recurrence risk. Objective evidence may play a prominent role in the development and structure of fear because it assumes a high epistemic weight that activates a wide range of emotional and cognitive responses. Interventions that assist survivors to tolerate FCR in the presence of higher recurrence risks may be important in reducing anxiety symptoms.