Using a population-based Kalman estimator to model the COVID-19 epidemic in France: estimating associations between disease transmission and non-pharmaceutical interventions.

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2, governments have adopted a wide range of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI). These include stringent measures such as strict lockdowns, closing schools, bars and restaurants, curfews, and barrier gestures such as mask-wearing and social distancing. Deciphering the effectiveness of each NPI is critical to responding to future waves and outbreaks. To this end, we first develop a dynamic model of the French COVID-19 epidemics over a one-year period. We rely on a global extended Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) mechanistic model of infection that includes a dynamic transmission rate over time. Multilevel data across French regions are integrated using random effects on the parameters of the mechanistic model, boosting statistical power by multiplying integrated observation series. We estimate the parameters using a new population-based statistical approach based on a Kalman filter, used for the first time in analysing real-world data. We then fit the estimated time-varying transmission rate using a regression model that depends on the NPIs while accounting for vaccination coverage, the occurrence of variants of concern (VoC), and seasonal weather conditions. We show that all NPIs considered have an independent significant association with transmission rates. In addition, we show a strong association between weather conditions that reduces transmission in summer, and we also estimate increased transmissibility of VoC.

Erratum: CD177, a specific marker of neutrophil activation, is associated with coronavirus disease 2019 severity and death.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2021.102711.].

Doubly robust evaluation of high-dimensional surrogate markers.

When evaluating the effectiveness of a treatment, policy, or intervention, the desired measure of efficacy may be expensive to collect, not routinely available, or may take a long time to occur. In these cases, it is sometimes possible to identify a surrogate outcome that can more easily, quickly, or cheaply capture the effect of interest. Theory and methods for evaluating the strength of surrogate markers have been well studied in the context of a single surrogate marker measured in the course of a randomized clinical study. However, methods are lacking for quantifying the utility of surrogate markers when the dimension of the surrogate grows. We propose a robust and efficient method for evaluating a set of surrogate markers that may be high-dimensional. Our method does not require treatment to be randomized and may be used in observational studies. Our approach draws on a connection between quantifying the utility of a surrogate marker and the most fundamental tools of causal inference-namely, methods for robust estimation of the average treatment effect. This connection facilitates the use of modern methods for estimating treatment effects, using machine learning to estimate nuisance functions and relaxing the dependence on model specification. We demonstrate that our proposed approach performs well, demonstrate connections between our approach and certain mediation effects, and illustrate it by evaluating whether gene expression can be used as a surrogate for immune activation in an Ebola study.

The benefit of augmenting open data with clinical data-warehouse EHR for forecasting SARS-CoV-2 hospitalizations in Bordeaux area, France.

Objective: The aim of this study was to develop an accurate regional forecast algorithm to predict the number of hospitalized patients and to assess the benefit of the Electronic Health Records (EHR) information to perform those predictions. Materials and Methods: Aggregated data from SARS-CoV-2 and weather public database and data warehouse of the Bordeaux hospital were extracted from May 16, 2020 to January 17, 2022. The outcomes were the number of hospitalized patients in the Bordeaux Hospital at 7 and 14 days. We compared the performance of different data sources, feature engineering, and machine learning models. Results: During the period of 88 weeks, 2561 hospitalizations due to COVID-19 were recorded at the Bordeaux Hospital. The model achieving the best performance was an elastic-net penalized linear regression using all available data with a median relative error at 7 and 14 days of 0.136 [0.063; 0.223] and 0.198 [0.105; 0.302] hospitalizations, respectively. Electronic health records (EHRs) from the hospital data warehouse improved median relative error at 7 and 14 days by 10.9% and 19.8%, respectively. Graphical evaluation showed remaining forecast error was mainly due to delay in slope shift detection. Discussion: Forecast model showed overall good performance both at 7 and 14 days which were improved by the addition of the data from Bordeaux Hospital data warehouse. Conclusions: The development of hospital data warehouse might help to get more specific and faster information than traditional surveillance system, which in turn will help to improve epidemic forecasting at a larger and finer scale.

High-temporal resolution profiling reveals distinct immune trajectories following the first and second doses of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines.

Knowledge of the mechanisms underpinning the development of protective immunity conferred by mRNA vaccines is fragmentary. Here, we investigated responses to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mRNA vaccination via high-temporal resolution blood transcriptome profiling. The first vaccine dose elicited modest interferon and adaptive immune responses, which peaked on days 2 and 5, respectively. The second vaccine dose, in contrast, elicited sharp day 1 interferon, inflammation, and erythroid cell responses, followed by a day 5 plasmablast response. Both post-first and post-second dose interferon signatures were associated with the subsequent development of antibody responses. Yet, we observed distinct interferon response patterns after each of the doses that may reflect quantitative or qualitative differences in interferon induction. Distinct interferon response phenotypes were also observed in patients with COVID-19 and were associated with severity and differences in duration of intensive care. Together, this study also highlights the benefits of adopting high-frequency sampling protocols in profiling vaccine-elicited immune responses.

ATLAS: an automated association test using probabilistically linked health records with application to genetic studies.

OBJECTIVE: Large amounts of health data are becoming available for biomedical research. Synthesizing information across databases may capture more comprehensive pictures of patient health and enable novel research studies. When no gold standard mappings between patient records are available, researchers may probabilistically link records from separate databases and analyze the linked data. However, previous linked data inference methods are constrained to certain linkage settings and exhibit low power. Here, we present ATLAS, an automated, flexible, and robust association testing algorithm for probabilistically linked data. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Missing variables are imputed at various thresholds using a weighted average method that propagates uncertainty from probabilistic linkage. Next, estimated effect sizes are obtained using a generalized linear model. ATLAS then conducts the threshold combination test by optimally combining P values obtained from data imputed at varying thresholds using Fisher's method and perturbation resampling. RESULTS: In simulations, ATLAS controls for type I error and exhibits high power compared to previous methods. In a real-world genetic association study, meta-analysis of ATLAS-enabled analyses on a linked cohort with analyses using an existing cohort yielded additional significant associations between rheumatoid arthritis genetic risk score and laboratory biomarkers. DISCUSSION: Weighted average imputation weathers false matches and increases contribution of true matches to mitigate linkage error-induced bias. The threshold combination test avoids arbitrarily choosing a threshold to rule a match, thus automating linked data-enabled analyses and preserving power. CONCLUSION: ATLAS promises to enable novel and powerful research studies using linked data to capitalize on all available data sources.

CD177, a specific marker of neutrophil activation, is associated with coronavirus disease 2019 severity and death.

The identification of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 and high risk of severe disease is a challenge in routine care. We performed cell phenotypic, serum, and RNA sequencing gene expression analyses in severe hospitalized patients (n = 61). Relative to healthy donors, results showed abnormalities of 27 cell populations and an elevation of 42 cytokines, neutrophil chemo-attractants, and inflammatory components in patients. Supervised and unsupervised analyses revealed a high abundance of CD177, a specific neutrophil activation marker, contributing to the clustering of severe patients. Gene abundance correlated with high serum levels of CD177 in severe patients. Higher levels were confirmed in a second cohort and in intensive care unit (ICU) than non-ICU patients (P < 0.001). Longitudinal measurements discriminated between patients with the worst prognosis, leading to death, and those who recovered (P = 0.01). These results highlight neutrophil activation as a hallmark of severe disease and CD177 assessment as a reliable prognostic marker for routine care.

Automatic phenotyping of electronical health record: PheVis algorithm.

Electronic Health Records (EHRs) often lack reliable annotation of patient medical conditions. Phenorm, an automated unsupervised algorithm to identify patient medical conditions from EHR data, has been developed. PheVis extends PheNorm at the visit resolution. PheVis combines diagnosis codes together with medical concepts extracted from medical notes, incorporating past history in a machine learning approach to provide an interpretable parametric predictor of the occurrence probability for a given medical condition at each visit. PheVis is applied to two real-world use-cases using the datawarehouse of the University Hospital of Bordeaux: i) rheumatoid arthritis, a chronic condition; ii) tuberculosis, an acute condition. Cross-validated AUROC were respectively 0.943 [0.940; 0.945] and 0.987 [0.983; 0.990]. Cross-validated AUPRC were respectively 0.754 [0.744; 0.763] and 0.299 [0.198; 0.403]. PheVis performs well for chronic conditions, though absence of exclusion of past medical history by natural language processing tools limits its performance in French for acute conditions. It achieves significantly better performance than state-of-the-art unsupervised methods especially for chronic diseases.

Early signature in the blood lipidome associated with subsequent cognitive decline in the elderly: A case-control analysis nested within the Three-City cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Brain lipid metabolism appears critical for cognitive aging, but whether alterations in the lipidome relate to cognitive decline remains unclear at the system level. METHODS: We studied participants from the Three-City study, a multicentric cohort of older persons, free of dementia at time of blood sampling, and who provided repeated measures of cognition over 12 subsequent years. We measured 189 serum lipids from 13 lipid classes using shotgun lipidomics in a case-control sample on cognitive decline (matched on age, sex and level of education) nested within the Bordeaux study center (discovery, n = 418). Associations with cognitive decline were investigated using bootstrapped penalized regression, and tested for validation in the Dijon study center (validation, n = 314). FINDINGS: Among 17 lipids identified in the discovery stage, lower levels of the triglyceride TAG50:5, and of four membrane lipids (sphingomyelin SM40:2,2, phosphatidylethanolamine PE38:5(18:1/20:4), ether-phosphatidylethanolamine PEO34:3(16:1/18:2), and ether-phosphatidylcholine PCO34:1(16:1/18:0)), and higher levels of PCO32:0(16:0/16:0), were associated with greater odds of cognitive decline, and replicated in our validation sample. INTERPRETATION: These findings indicate that in the blood lipidome of non-demented older persons, a specific profile of lipids involved in membrane fluidity, myelination, and lipid rafts, is associated with subsequent cognitive decline. FUNDING: The complete list of funders is available at the end of the manuscript, in the Acknowledgement section.

Predicting Progression to Advanced Age-Related Macular Degeneration from Clinical, Genetic, and Lifestyle Factors Using Machine Learning.

PURPOSE: Current prediction models for advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD) are based on a restrictive set of risk factors. The objective of this study was to develop a comprehensive prediction model applying a machine learning algorithm allowing selection of the most predictive risk factors automatically. DESIGN: Two population-based cohort studies. PARTICIPANTS: The Rotterdam Study I (RS-I; training set) included 3838 participants 55 years of age or older, with a median follow-up period of 10.8 years, and 108 incident cases of advanced AMD. The Antioxydants, Lipids Essentiels, Nutrition et Maladies Oculaires (ALIENOR) study (test set) included 362 participants 73 years of age or older, with a median follow-up period of 6.5 years, and 33 incident cases of advanced AMD. METHODS: The prediction model used the bootstrap least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method for survival analysis to select the best predictors of incident advanced AMD in the training set. Predictive performance of the model was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incident advanced AMD (atrophic, neovascular, or both), based on standardized interpretation of retinal photographs. RESULTS: The prediction model retained (1) age, (2) a combination of phenotypic predictors (based on the presence of intermediate drusen, hyperpigmentation in one or both eyes, and Age-Related Eye Disease Study simplified score), (3) a summary genetic risk score based on 49 single nucleotide polymorphisms, (4) smoking, (5) diet quality, (6) education, and (7) pulse pressure. The cross-validated AUC estimation in RS-I was 0.92 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.88-0.97) at 5 years, 0.92 (95% CI, 0.90-0.95) at 10 years, and 0.91 (95% CI, 0.88-0.94) at 15 years. In ALIENOR, the AUC reached 0.92 at 5 years (95% CI, 0.87-0.98). In terms of calibration, the model tended to underestimate the cumulative incidence of advanced AMD for the high-risk groups, especially in ALIENOR. CONCLUSIONS: This prediction model reached high discrimination abilities, paving the way toward making precision medicine for AMD patients a reality in the near future.

Immune Alterations in a Patient with SARS-CoV-2-Related Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome.

We report a longitudinal analysis of the immune response associated with a fatal case of COVID-19 in Europe. This patient exhibited a rapid evolution towards multiorgan failure. SARS-CoV-2 was detected in multiple nasopharyngeal, blood, and pleural samples, despite antiviral and immunomodulator treatment. Clinical evolution in the blood was marked by an increase (2-3-fold) in differentiated effector T cells expressing exhaustion (PD-1) and senescence (CD57) markers, an expansion of antibody-secreting cells, a 15-fold increase in γδ T cell and proliferating NK-cell populations, and the total disappearance of monocytes, suggesting lung trafficking. In the serum, waves of a pro-inflammatory cytokine storm, Th1 and Th2 activation, and markers of T cell exhaustion, apoptosis, cell cytotoxicity, and endothelial activation were observed until the fatal outcome. This case underscores the need for well-designed studies to investigate complementary approaches to control viral replication, the source of the hyperinflammatory status, and immunomodulation to target the pathophysiological response. The investigation was conducted as part of an overall French clinical cohort assessing patients with COVID-19 and registered in clinicaltrials.gov under the following number: NCT04262921.

Long-lasting severe immune dysfunction in Ebola virus disease survivors.

Long-term follow up studies from Ebola virus disease (EVD) survivors (EBOV_S) are lacking. Here, we evaluate immune and gene expression profiles in 35 Guinean EBOV_S from the last West African outbreak, a median of 23 months (IQR [18-25]) after discharge from treatment center. Compared with healthy donors, EBOV_S exhibit increases of blood markers of inflammation, intestinal tissue damage, T cell and B cell activation and a depletion of circulating dendritic cells. All survivors have EBOV-specific IgG antibodies and robust and polyfunctional EBOV-specific memory T-cell responses. Deep sequencing of the genes expressed in blood reveals an enrichment in 'inflammation' and 'antiviral' pathways. Integrated analyses identify specific immune markers associated with the persistence of clinical symptoms. This study identifies a set of biological and genetic markers that could be used to define a signature of "chronic Ebola virus disease (CEVD)".

dearseq: a variance component score test for RNA-seq differential analysis that effectively controls the false discovery rate.

RNA-seq studies are growing in size and popularity. We provide evidence that the most commonly used methods for differential expression analysis (DEA) may yield too many false positive results in some situations. We present dearseq, a new method for DEA that controls the false discovery rate (FDR) without making any assumption about the true distribution of RNA-seq data. We show that dearseq controls the FDR while maintaining strong statistical power compared to the most popular methods. We demonstrate this behavior with mathematical proofs, simulations and a real data set from a study of tuberculosis, where our method produces fewer apparent false positives.

Semi-supervised estimation of covariance with application to phenome-wide association studies with electronic medical records data.

Electronic medical records data are valuable resources for discovery research. They contain detailed phenotypic information on individual patients, opening opportunities for simultaneously studying multiple phenotypes. A useful tool for such simultaneous assessment is the phenome-wide association study, which relates a genomic or biological marker of interest to a wide spectrum of disease phenotypes, typically defined by the diagnostic billing codes. One challenge arises when the biomarker of interest is expensive to measure on the entire electronic medical record cohort. Performing phenome-wide association study based on supervised estimation using only subjects who have marker measurements may yield limited power. In this paper, we focus on the setting where the marker is measured on a small fraction of the patients while a few surrogate markers such as historical measurements of the biomarker are available on a large number of patients. We propose an efficient semi-supervised estimation procedure to estimate the covariance between the biomarker and the billing code, leveraging the surrogate marker information. We employ surrogate marker values to impute the missing outcome via a two-step semi-non-parametric approach and demonstrate that our proposed estimator is always more efficient than the supervised counterpart without requiring the imputation model to be correct. We illustrate the proposed procedure by assessing the association between the C-reactive protein and some inflammatory diseases with an electronic medical record study of inflammatory bowel disease performed with the Partners HealthCare electronic medical record database where C-reactive protein was only measured for a small fraction of the patients due to budget constraints.

Analyzing cellular immunogenicity in vaccine clinical trials: a new statistical method including non-specific responses for accurate estimation of vaccine effect.

Evaluation of immunogenicity is a key step in the clinical development of novel vaccines. T-cell responses to vaccine candidates are typically assessed by intracellular cytokine staining (ICS) using multiparametric flow cytometry. A conventional statistical approach to analyze ICS data is to compare, between vaccine regimens or between baseline and post-vaccination of the same regimen depending on the trial design, the percentages of cells producing a cytokine of interest after ex vivo stimulation of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) with vaccine antigens, after subtracting the non-specific response (of unstimulated cells) of each sample. Subtraction of the non-specific response is aimed at capturing the specific response to the antigen, but raises methodological issues related to measurement error and statistical power. We describe here a new statistical approach to analyze ICS data from vaccine trials. We propose a bivariate linear regression model for estimating the non-specific and antigen-specific ICS responses. We benchmarked the performance of the model in terms of both bias and control of type-I and -II errors in comparison with conventional approaches, and applied it to simulated data as well as real pre- and post-vaccination data from two recent HIV vaccine trials (ANRS VRI01 in healthy volunteers and therapeutic VRI02 ANRS 149 LIGHT in HIV-infected participants). The model was as good as the conventional approaches (with or without subtraction of the non-specific response) in all simulation scenarios in terms of statistical performance, whereas the conventional approaches did not provide robust results across all scenarios. The proposed model estimated the T-cell responses to the antigens without any effect of the non-specific response on the specific response, irrespective of the correlation between the non-specific and specific responses. This novel method of analyzing T-cell immunogenicity data based on bivariate modeling is more flexible than conventional methods, and so yields more detailed results and enables accurate interpretation of vaccine-induced response.

Diet-Related Metabolites Associated with Cognitive Decline Revealed by Untargeted Metabolomics in a Prospective Cohort.

SCOPE: Untargeted metabolomics may reveal preventive targets in cognitive aging, including within the food metabolome. METHODS AND RESULTS: A case-control study nested in the prospective Three-City study includes participants aged ≥65 years and initially free of dementia. A total of 209 cases of cognitive decline and 209 controls (matched for age, gender, education) with slower cognitive decline over up to 12 years are contrasted. Using untargeted metabolomics and bootstrap-enhanced penalized regression, a baseline serum signature of 22 metabolites associated with subsequent cognitive decline is identified. The signature includes three coffee metabolites, a biomarker of citrus intake, a cocoa metabolite, two metabolites putatively derived from fish and wine, three medium-chain acylcarnitines, glycodeoxycholic acid, lysoPC(18:3), trimethyllysine, glucose, cortisol, creatinine, and arginine. Adding the 22 metabolites to a reference predictive model for cognitive decline (conditioned on age, gender, education and including ApoE-ε4, diabetes, BMI, and number of medications) substantially increases the predictive performance: cross-validated Area Under the Receiver Operating Curve = 75% [95% CI 70-80%] compared to 62% [95% CI 56-67%]. CONCLUSIONS: The untargeted metabolomics study supports a protective role of specific foods (e.g., coffee, cocoa, fish) and various alterations in the endogenous metabolism responsive to diet in cognitive aging.

Gene Expression Signatures Associated With Immune and Virological Responses to Therapeutic Vaccination With Dendritic Cells in HIV-Infected Individuals.

The goal of HIV therapeutic vaccination is to induce HIV-specific immune response able to control HIV replication. We previously reported that vaccination with ex vivo generated Dendritic Cells (DC) loaded with HIV-lipopeptides in HIV-infected patients (n = 19) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) was well-tolerated and immunogenic. Vaccine-elicited HIV-specific T cell responses were associated with improved control of viral replication following antiretroviral interruption (ATI from w24 to w48). We show an inverse relationship between HIV-specific responses (production of IL-2, IL-13, IL-21, IFN-g, CD4 polyfunctionality, i.e., production of at least two cytokines) and the peak of viral load during ATI. Here we have performed an integrative systems vaccinology analysis including: (i) post vaccination (w16) immune responses assessed by cytometry, cytokine secretion, and Interferon-γ ELISPOT assays; (ii) whole blood and cellular gene expression measured during vaccination; and (iii) viral parameters following ATI, with the objective to disentangle the relationships between these markers and to identify vaccine signatures. During vaccination, 69 gene expression modules out of 260 varied significantly including (by order of significance) modules related to inflammation (Chaussabel Modules M3.2, M4.13, M4.6, M5.7, M7.1, M4.2), plasma cells (M4.11) and T cells (M4.1, 4.15). Cellular immune responses were positively correlated to genes belonging to T cell functional modules (M4.1, M4.15) at w16 and negatively correlated to genes belonging to inflammation modules (M7.1, M5.7, M3.2, M4.13, M4.2). More specifically, we show that prolonged increased abundance of inflammatory gene pathways related to toll-like receptor signaling (especially TLR4) are associated with both lower vaccine immune responses and control of viral replication post ATI. Further comparison of DC vaccine gene signatures with previously reported non-HIV vaccine signatures, such as flu and pneumococcal vaccines, revealed common pathways across vaccines. Overall, these results show that too long duration and too high intensity of vaccine inflammatory responses hamper the magnitude of effector responses.

Benefits of dimension reduction in penalized regression methods for high-dimensional grouped data: a case study in low sample size.

MOTIVATION: In some prediction analyses, predictors have a natural grouping structure and selecting predictors accounting for this additional information could be more effective for predicting the outcome accurately. Moreover, in a high dimension low sample size framework, obtaining a good predictive model becomes very challenging. The objective of this work was to investigate the benefits of dimension reduction in penalized regression methods, in terms of prediction performance and variable selection consistency, in high dimension low sample size data. Using two real datasets, we compared the performances of lasso, elastic net, group lasso, sparse group lasso, sparse partial least squares (PLS), group PLS and sparse group PLS. RESULTS: Considering dimension reduction in penalized regression methods improved the prediction accuracy. The sparse group PLS reached the lowest prediction error while consistently selecting a few predictors from a single group. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: R codes for the prediction methods are freely available at https://github.com/SoufianeAjana/Blisar. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Probabilistic record linkage of de-identified research datasets with discrepancies using diagnosis codes.

We develop an algorithm for probabilistic linkage of de-identified research datasets at the patient level, when only diagnosis codes with discrepancies and no personal health identifiers such as name or date of birth are available. It relies on Bayesian modelling of binarized diagnosis codes, and provides a posterior probability of matching for each patient pair, while considering all the data at once. Both in our simulation study (using an administrative claims dataset for data generation) and in two real use-cases linking patient electronic health records from a large tertiary care network, our method exhibits good performance and compares favourably to the standard baseline Fellegi-Sunter algorithm. We propose a scalable, fast and efficient open-source implementation in the ludic R package available on CRAN, which also includes the anonymized diagnosis code data from our real use-case. This work suggests it is possible to link de-identified research databases stripped of any personal health identifiers using only diagnosis codes, provided sufficient information is shared between the data sources.