Simulating structurally variable nuclear pore complexes for microscopy.

MOTIVATION: The nuclear pore complex (NPC) is the only passageway for macromolecules between nucleus and cytoplasm, and an important reference standard in microscopy: it is massive and stereotypically arranged. The average architecture of NPC proteins has been resolved with pseudoatomic precision, however observed NPC heterogeneities evidence a high degree of divergence from this average. Single-molecule localization microscopy (SMLM) images NPCs at protein-level resolution, whereupon image analysis software studies NPC variability. However, the true picture of this variability is unknown. In quantitative image analysis experiments, it is thus difficult to distinguish intrinsically high SMLM noise from variability of the underlying structure. RESULTS: We introduce CIR4MICS ('ceramics', Configurable, Irregular Rings FOR MICroscopy Simulations), a pipeline that synthesizes ground truth datasets of structurally variable NPCs based on architectural models of the true NPC. Users can select one or more N- or C-terminally tagged NPC proteins, and simulate a wide range of geometric variations. We also represent the NPC as a spring-model such that arbitrary deforming forces, of user-defined magnitudes, simulate irregularly shaped variations. Further, we provide annotated reference datasets of simulated human NPCs, which facilitate a side-by-side comparison with real data. To demonstrate, we synthetically replicate a geometric analysis of real NPC radii and reveal that a range of simulated variability parameters can lead to observed results. Our simulator is therefore valuable to test the capabilities of image analysis methods, as well as to inform experimentalists about the requirements of hypothesis-driven imaging studies. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Code: https://github.com/uhlmanngroup/cir4mics. Simulated data: BioStudies S-BSST1058.

Estimating the fitness cost and benefit of antimicrobial resistance from pathogen genomic data.

Increasing levels of antibiotic resistance in many bacterial pathogen populations are a major threat to public health. Resistance to an antibiotic provides a fitness benefit when the bacteria are exposed to this antibiotic, but resistance also often comes at a cost to the resistant pathogen relative to susceptible counterparts. We lack a good understanding of these benefits and costs of resistance for many bacterial pathogens and antibiotics, but estimating them could lead to better use of antibiotics in a way that reduces or prevents the spread of resistance. Here, we propose a new model for the joint epidemiology of susceptible and resistant variants, which includes explicit parameters for the cost and benefit of resistance. We show how Bayesian inference can be performed under this model using phylogenetic data from susceptible and resistant lineages and that by combining data from both we are able to disentangle and estimate the resistance cost and benefit parameters separately. We applied our inferential methodology to several simulated datasets to demonstrate good scalability and accuracy. We analysed a dataset of Neisseria gonorrhoeae genomes collected between 2000 and 2013 in the USA. We found that two unrelated lineages resistant to fluoroquinolones shared similar epidemic dynamics and resistance parameters. Fluoroquinolones were abandoned for the treatment of gonorrhoea due to increasing levels of resistance, but our results suggest that they could be used to treat a minority of around 10% of cases without causing resistance to grow again.

Distinguishing imported cases from locally acquired cases within a geographically limited genomic sample of an infectious disease.

MOTIVATION: The ability to distinguish imported cases from locally acquired cases has important consequences for the selection of public health control strategies. Genomic data can be useful for this, for example, using a phylogeographic analysis in which genomic data from multiple locations are compared to determine likely migration events between locations. However, these methods typically require good samples of genomes from all locations, which is rarely available. RESULTS: Here, we propose an alternative approach that only uses genomic data from a location of interest. By comparing each new case with previous cases from the same location, we are able to detect imported cases, as they have a different genealogical distribution than that of locally acquired cases. We show that, when variations in the size of the local population are accounted for, our method has good sensitivity and excellent specificity for the detection of imports. We applied our method to data simulated under the structured coalescent model and demonstrate relatively good performance even when the local population has the same size as the external population. Finally, we applied our method to several recent genomic datasets from both bacterial and viral pathogens, and show that it can, in a matter of seconds or minutes, deliver important insights on the number of imports to a geographically limited sample of a pathogen population. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The R package DetectImports is freely available from https://github.com/xavierdidelot/DetectImports. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Bayesian Inference of Clonal Expansions in a Dated Phylogeny.

Microbial population genetics models often assume that all lineages are constrained by the same population size dynamics over time. However, many neutral and selective events can invalidate this assumption and can contribute to the clonal expansion of a specific lineage relative to the rest of the population. Such differential phylodynamic properties between lineages result in asymmetries and imbalances in phylogenetic trees that are sometimes described informally but which are difficult to analyze formally. To this end, we developed a model of how clonal expansions occur and affect the branching patterns of a phylogeny. We show how the parameters of this model can be inferred from a given dated phylogeny using Bayesian statistics, which allows us to assess the probability that one or more clonal expansion events occurred. For each putative clonal expansion event, we estimate its date of emergence and subsequent phylodynamic trajectory, including its long-term evolutionary potential which is important to determine how much effort should be placed on specific control measures. We demonstrate the applicability of our methodology on simulated and real data sets. Inference under our clonal expansion model can reveal important features in the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease pathogens. [Clonal expansion; genomic epidemiology; microbial population genomics; phylodynamics.].