Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification.

Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world's tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. We apply two different modeling approaches (Maximum Entropy and Boosted Regression Trees) with two levels of complexity (one a simplified and reduced environmental variable version of the other). Our models project a marked temperature-driven decline in habitat suitability for many of the most significant and bio-diverse tropical coral regions, particularly in the central Indo-Pacific. This is accompanied by a temperature-driven poleward range expansion of favorable conditions accelerating up to 40-70 km per decade by 2070. We find that ocean acidification is less influential for determining future habitat suitability than warming, and its deleterious effects are centered evenly in both hemispheres between 5° and 20° latitude. Contrary to expectations, the combined impact of ocean surface temperature rise and acidification leads to little, if any, degradation in future habitat suitability across much of the Atlantic and areas currently considered 'marginal' for tropical corals, such as the eastern Equatorial Pacific. These results are consistent with fossil evidence of range expansions during past warm periods. In addition, the simplified models are particularly sensitive to short-term temperature variations and their projections correlate well with reported locations of bleaching events. Our approach offers new insights into the relative impact of two global environmental pressures associated with rising atmospheric CO2 on potential future habitats, but greater understanding of past and current controls on coral reef ecosystems is essential to their conservation and management under a changing climate.

Assessing amino acid racemization variability in coral intra-crystalline protein for geochronological applications.

Over 500 Free Amino Acid (FAA) and corresponding Total Hydrolysed Amino Acid (THAA) analyses were completed from eight independently-dated, multi-century coral cores of massive Porites sp. colonies. This dataset allows us to re-evaluate the application of amino acid racemization (AAR) for dating late Holocene coral material, 20 years after Goodfriend et al. (GCA56 (1992), 3847) first showed AAR had promise for developing chronologies in coral cores. This re-assessment incorporates recent method improvements, including measurement by RP-HPLC, new quality control approaches (e.g. sampling and sub-sampling protocols, statistically-based data screening criteria), and cleaning steps to isolate the intra-crystalline skeletal protein. We show that the removal of the extra-crystalline contaminants and matrix protein is the most critical step for reproducible results and recommend a protocol of bleaching samples in NaOCl for 48 h to maximise removal of open system proteins while minimising the induced racemization. We demonstrate that AAR follows closed system behaviour in the intra-crystalline fraction of the coral skeletal proteins. Our study is the first to assess the natural variability in intra-crystalline AAR between colonies, and we use coral cores taken from the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, and Jarvis Island in the equatorial Pacific to explore variability associated with different environmental conditions and thermal histories. Chronologies were developed from THAA Asx D/L, Ala D/L, Glx D/L and FAA Asx D/L for each core and least squares Monte Carlo modelling applied in order to quantify uncertainty of AAR age determinations and assess the level of dating resolution possible over the last 5 centuries. AAR within colonies follow consistent stratigraphic aging. However, there are systematic differences in rates between the colonies, which would preclude direct comparison from one colony to another for accurate age estimation. When AAR age models are developed from a combined dataset to include this natural inter-colony variability THAA Asx D/L, Glx D/L and Ala D/L give a 2σ age uncertainty of ±19, ±38 and ±29 year, for the 20th C respectively; in comparison 2σ age uncertainties from a single colony are ±12, ±12 and ±14 year. This is the first demonstration of FAA D/L for dating coral and following strict protocols 2σ precisions of ±24 years can be achieved across different colonies in samples from the last 150 years, and can be ±10 years within a core from a single colony. Despite these relatively large error estimates, AAR would be a valuable tool in situations where a large number of samples need to be screened rapidly and cheaply (e.g. identifying material from mixed populations in beach or uplift deposits), prior to and complementing the more time-consuming geochronological tools of U/Th or seasonal isotopic timeseries.

Abrupt decrease in tropical Pacific sea surface salinity at end of Little Ice Age.

A 420-year history of strontium/calcium, uranium/calcium, and oxygen isotope ratios in eight coral cores from the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, indicates that sea surface temperature and salinity were higher in the 18th century than in the 20th century. An abrupt freshening after 1870 occurred simultaneously throughout the southwestern Pacific, coinciding with cooling tropical temperatures. Higher salinities between 1565 and 1870 are best explained by a combination of advection and wind-induced evaporation resulting from a strong latitudinal temperature gradient and intensified circulation. The global Little Ice Age glacial expansion may have been driven, in part, by greater poleward transport of water vapor from the tropical Pacific.