Insecticides, more than herbicides, land use, and climate, are associated with declines in butterfly species richness and abundance in the American Midwest.

Mounting evidence shows overall insect abundances are in decline globally. Habitat loss, climate change, and pesticides have all been implicated, but their relative effects have never been evaluated in a comprehensive large-scale study. We harmonized 17 years of land use, climate, multiple classes of pesticides, and butterfly survey data across 81 counties in five states in the US Midwest. We find community-wide declines in total butterfly abundance and species richness to be most strongly associated with insecticides in general, and for butterfly species richness the use of neonicotinoid-treated seeds in particular. This included the abundance of the migratory monarch (Danaus plexippus), whose decline is the focus of intensive debate and public concern. Insect declines cannot be understood without comprehensive data on all putative drivers, and the 2015 cessation of neonicotinoid data releases in the US will impede future research.

Health burden associated with tillage-related PM2.5 pollution in the United States, and mitigation strategies.

Exposure to airborne particulate matter of diameter less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) is associated with cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). In agriculture, the practice of tilling generates PM2.5 emissions that can jeopardize human health. This paper estimates the annual deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from CVD and COPD attributable to PM2.5 emissions from corn, soybean, cotton, and wheat tillage in the contiguous United States. Primary PM2.5 from crop-tillage combination was calculated using values obtained from the Environmental Protection Agency's National Emissions Inventory, 2017, while deaths and DALYs estimates were calculated using data from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation's global burden of risk factors study, the US decennial census, and the US Centers for Disease Control. We also propose and implement a conceptual framework for identifying the optimal subsidy upon accounting for health benefits arising from reducing conventional tillage, and we discuss strategies to achieve conservation tillage. Annual PM2.5 emissions from crop tillage is about 0.25 million tons. We estimate that approximately 1000 annual deaths and 22,000 DALYs from CVD, as well as 300 annual deaths and 7400 DALYs from COPD, were attributable to tillage-related PM2.5 emissions. Tillage related primary PM2.5 emissions contribute about 0.002 % of total CVD and COPD deaths in the United States, and its related health economic value loss is about 12.9 billion USD annually. About 350 annual deaths may be averted upon a shift from conventional to conservation tillage. Conservation tillage is generally adopted when the pecuniary and soil health benefits exceed those from adopting intensive tillage. Agricultural policies and on-farm measures that may help reduce intensive tillage, and the related PM2.5 emissions, include subsidies for adopting conservation tillage and carbon capture credits, use of herbicides and herbicide-tolerant crops, protecting herbicide-tolerance traits, planting cover crops, and use of windbreaks.

Determinants of farms' antibiotic consumption - A longitudinal study of pig fattening farms in Germany.

As high consumption of antibiotics in livestock production poses risks to public health, Germany has implemented a monitoring system to decrease their administration to farm animals. Data from 1,984 German pig farms are used to describe prescription trends for different antibiotic subclasses between Autumn 2017 and Autumn 2019. A panel Tobit model with control function approach is implemented to identify determinants of antibiotic consumption, where variables studied include farm, farmer, and county characteristics as well as weather variables. The overall quantity of prescribed antibiotics has been stable but with seasonal fluctuations and a shift away from critically important antibiotics used. Biosecurity factors such as livestock farm density in a county and pigs per farm are shown to be important drivers of antibiotic consumption. In addition, the number of cold days within a season increases antibiotic consumption but precipitation and the number of hot days have no significant effect.

Emerging weed resistance increases tillage intensity and greenhouse gas emissions in the US corn-soybean cropping system.

Tillage is a common agricultural practice that helps prepare the soil and remove weeds. However, it remains unknown how tillage intensity has evolved and its effect on net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Here, using a process-based modelling approach with a multi-source database, we examined the change in tillage intensity across the US corn-soybean cropping systems during 1998-2016 and the impact of tillage intensity on soil GHG emissions. We found that tillage intensity first decreased and then, after 2008, increased, a trend that is strongly correlated with the adoption of herbicide-tolerant crops and emerging weed resistance. The GHG mitigation benefit (-5.5 ± 4.8 TgCO2e yr-1) of decreasing tillage intensity before 2008 has been more than offset by increased GHG emissions (13.8 ± 5.6 TgCO2e yr-1) due to tillage reintensification under growing pressure of weed resistance. As weed resistance persists or grows, tillage intensity is anticipated to continue rising, probably increasing GHG emissions. Our results imply that farmers' choices in managing herbicide resistance may help mitigate agricultural GHG emissions, underscoring the importance of an alternative strategy to control weeds.

Environmental and economic concerns surrounding restrictions on glyphosate use in corn.

Since the commercialization of transgenic glyphosate-tolerant (GT) crops in the mid-1990s, glyphosate has become the dominant herbicide to control weeds in corn, soybean, and other crops in the United States and elsewhere. However, recent public concerns over its potential carcinogenicity in humans have generated calls for glyphosate-restricting policies. Should a policy to restrict glyphosate use, such as a glyphosate tax, be implemented? The decision involves two types of tradeoffs: human health and environmental (HH-E) impacts versus market economic impacts, and the use of glyphosate versus alternative herbicides, where the alternatives potentially have more serious adverse HH-E effects. Accounting for farmers' weed management choices, we provide empirical evaluation of the HH-E welfare and market economic welfare effects of a glyphosate use restriction policy on US corn production. Under a glyphosate tax, farmers would substitute glyphosate for a combination of other herbicides. Should a 10% glyphosate tax be imposed, then the most conservative welfare estimate is a net HH-E welfare gain with a monetized value of US$6 million per annum but also a net market economic loss of US$98 million per annum in the United States, which translates into a net loss in social welfare. This result of overall welfare loss is robust to a wide range of tax rates considered, from 10 to 50%, and to multiple scenarios of glyphosate's HH-E effects, which are the primary sources of uncertainties about glyphosate's effects.

Author Correction: The Impact of Bt Corn on Aflatoxin-Related Insurance Claims in the United States.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

The Impact of Bt Corn on Aflatoxin-Related Insurance Claims in the United States.

Previous field studies have reached no collective consensus on whether Bt corn, the most commonly planted transgenic crop worldwide, has significantly lower aflatoxin levels than non-Bt isolines. Aflatoxin, a mycotoxin contaminating corn and other commodities, causes liver cancer in humans and can pose severe economic losses to farmers. We found that from 2001-2016, a significant inverse correlation existed between Bt corn planting and aflatoxin-related insurance claims in the United States, when controlling for temperature and drought. Estimated benefits of aflatoxin reduction resulting from Bt corn planting are about $120 million to $167 million per year over 16 states on average. These results suggest that Bt corn use is an important strategy in reducing aflatoxin risk, with corresponding economic benefits. If the same principles hold true in other world regions, then Bt corn hybrids adapted to diverse agronomic regions may have a role in reducing aflatoxin in areas prone to high aflatoxin contamination, and where corn is a dietary staple.

Challenges for rotational grazing practice: Views from non-adopters across the Great Plains, USA.

Many ranchers who practice rotational grazing have experienced economic and ecological benefits. However, the adoption rate of rotational grazing has stagnated. To identify major challenges faced by non-adopters of rotational grazing as well as factors that affect the perceptions about different challenges, we conducted a mail survey of 4250 eligible ranchers in North Dakota, South Dakota and Texas, USA. Key categories of information obtained included basic ranch information, rotational grazing adoption status, and related information. Among 875 respondents, 40.4% identified themselves as non-adopters and perceived labor and water source constraints as the two major challenges, followed by high initial investment costs. This indicates the need for technical support and educational programs to address producers' concerns in addition to the monetary support from government subsidy programs. Findings from logistic regression analyses further indicate that landowners with higher quality soil, relatively more grassland (in both acres and percentage) and more owned land, generally perceive lower barriers to choosing rotational grazing practices and, therefore, may be a suitable target group for more effective outreach efforts and public fund investments to enhance the adoption of beneficial rotational grazing practices.

Genetically engineered crops and pesticide use in U.S. maize and soybeans.

The widespread adoption of genetically engineered (GE) crops has clearly led to changes in pesticide use, but the nature and extent of these impacts remain open questions. We study this issue with a unique, large, and representative sample of plot-level choices made by U.S. maize and soybean farmers from 1998 to 2011. On average, adopters of GE glyphosate-tolerant (GT) soybeans used 28% (0.30 kg/ha) more herbicide than nonadopters, adopters of GT maize used 1.2% (0.03 kg/ha) less herbicide than nonadopters, and adopters of GE insect-resistant (IR) maize used 11.2% (0.013 kg/ha) less insecticide than nonadopters. When pesticides are weighted by the environmental impact quotient, however, we find that (relative to nonadopters) GE adopters used about the same amount of soybean herbicides, 9.8% less of maize herbicides, and 10.4% less of maize insecticides. In addition, the results indicate that the difference in pesticide use between GE and non-GE adopters has changed significantly over time. For both soybean and maize, GT adopters used increasingly more herbicides relative to nonadopters, whereas adopters of IR maize used increasingly less insecticides. The estimated pattern of change in herbicide use over time is consistent with the emergence of glyphosate weed resistance.

Where are the food animal veterinarian shortage areas anyway?

In 2010 the United States implemented the Veterinary Medicine Loan Repayment Program (VMLRP) to address perceived regional shortages in certain veterinary occupations, including food animal practice. With county as the unit of analysis, this paper describes a pair of models to evaluate factors associated with being designated a private practice shortage area in 2010. One model is used to explain food animal veterinarian location choices so as to provide an objective evaluation of comparative shortage. The other model seeks to explain the counties chosen as shortage areas. Model results are then used to evaluate the program. On the whole the program appears to perform quite well. For several states, however, VMLRP shortage designations are inconsistent with the food animal veterinarian location model. Comparative shortage is generally more severe in states that have no VMLRP designated private practice shortage counties than in states that do.

Economic aspects of agricultural and food biosecurity.

Concerns about biosecurity in the food system raise a variety of issues about how the system is presently organized, why it might be vulnerable, what we could reasonably do to better secure it, and the costs of doing so. Emphasizing the role of incentives in efficient resource allocation, this article considers economic dimensions of three aspects of the general problem. One is the global problem, or the way biosecurity measures can affect how countries relate to each other and the global consequences that result. Another is how to best manage the immediate aftermath of a realized threat in order to minimize damage. The third is how to seek to prevent realization of the threat. Some policy alternatives are presented.

Prevention and cure efforts both substitute and complement.

Suppose one could expend effort to prevent probabilistic transition to an adverse state, and also effort to expedite probabilistic transition to a beneficial state. Bearing in mind that the efforts occur in different states, should these efforts substitute or complement? Two appealing arguments are in conflict. If cure effort is costly, then the incentive to prevent should be high in order to avoid future cure effort costs, i.e. efforts are gross substitutes in demand. If prevention effort is costly, then the incentive to cure should be low since recidivism is likely, i.e. efforts complement. In a lifetime present value model, we show that both arguments have merit. We also show that the prevalence of the adverse state can rise with a subsidy on cure effort costs.