Impact of six-month COVID-19 travel moratorium on Plasmodium falciparum prevalence on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea.

Importation of malaria infections is a suspected driver of sustained malaria prevalence on areas of Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea. Quantifying the impact of imported infections is difficult because of the dynamic nature of the disease and complexity of designing a randomized trial. We leverage a six-month travel moratorium in and out of Bioko Island during the initial COVID-19 pandemic response to evaluate the contribution of imported infections to malaria prevalence on Bioko Island. Using a difference in differences design and data from island wide household surveys conducted before (2019) and after (2020) the travel moratorium, we compare the change in prevalence between areas of low historical travel to those with high historical travel. Here, we report that in the absence of a travel moratorium, the prevalence of infection in high travel areas was expected to be 9% higher than observed, highlighting the importance of control measures that target imported infections.

Assessing the daily natural history of asymptomatic Plasmodium infections in adults and older children in Katakwi, Uganda: a longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Low-density asymptomatic Plasmodium infections are prevalent in endemic areas, but little is known about their natural history. The trajectories of these infections and their propensity to fluctuate to undetectable densities can affect detection in clinical trials and field studies. We aimed to classify the natural history of these infections in a high transmission area over 29 days. METHODS: In this longitudinal cohort study, we enrolled healthy, malaria-asymptomatic, afebrile, adults (age 18-59 years) and older children (age 8-17 years) in Katakwi District, Uganda, who were negative for Plasmodium infection on rapid diagnostic tests. Participants were instructed to self-collect one dried blood spot (DBS) per day for a maximum of 29 days. We excluded people if they were pregnant or taking antimalarials. During weekly clinic visits, staff collected a DBS and a 4 mL sample of venous blood. We analysed DBSs by Plasmodium 18S rRNA quantitative RT-PCR (qRT-PCR). We classified DBS by infection type as negative, P falciparum, non-P falciparum, or mixed. We plotted infection type over time for each participant and categorised trajectories as negative, new, cleared, chronic, or indeterminate infections. To estimate the effect of single timepoint sampling, we calculated the daily prevalence for each study day and estimated the number of infections that would have been detected in our population if sampling frequency was reduced. FINDINGS: Between April 9 and May 20, 2021, 3577 DBSs were collected by 128 (40 male adults, 60 female adults, 12 male children, and 16 female children) study participants. 2287 (64%) DBSs were categorised as negative, 751 (21%) as positive for P falciparum, 507 (14%) as positive for non-P falciparum, and 32 (1%) as mixed infections. Daily Plasmodium prevalence in the population ranged from 45·3% (95% CI 36·6-54·1) at baseline to 30·3% (21·9-38·6) on day 24. 37 (95%) of 39 P falciparum and 35 (85%) of 41 non-P falciparum infections would have been detected with every other day sampling, whereas, with weekly sampling, 35 (90%) P falciparum infections and 31 (76%) non-P falciparum infections would have been detected. INTERPRETATION: Parasite dynamics and species are highly variable among low-density asymptomatic Plasmodium infections. Sampling every other day or every 3 days detected a similar proportion of infections as daily sampling, whereas testing once per week or even less frequently could misclassify up to a third of the infections. Even using highly sensitive diagnostics, single timepoint testing might misclassify the true infection status of an individual. FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health and Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Plasmodium 18S Ribosomal RNA Biomarker Clearance After Food and Drug Administration-Approved Antimalarial Treatment in Controlled Human Malaria Infection Trials.

Background: Sensitive molecular assays, such as quantitative reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) of Plasmodium 18S ribosomal RNA (rRNA), are increasingly the primary method of detecting infections in controlled human malaria infection (CHMI) trials. However, thick blood smears (TBSs) remain the main method for confirming clearance of parasites after curative treatment, in part owing to uncertainty regarding biomarker clearance rates. Methods: For this analysis, 18S rRNA qRT-PCR data were compiled from 127 Plasmodium falciparum-infected participants treated with chloroquine or atovaquone-proguanil in 6 CHMI studies conducted in Seattle, Washington, over the past decade. A survival analysis approach was used to compare biomarker and TBS clearance times among studies. The effect of the parasite density at which treatment was initiated on clearance time was estimated using linear regression. Results: The median time to biomarker clearance was 3 days (interquartile range, 3-5 days), while the median time to TBS clearance was 1 day (1-2 days). Time to biomarker clearance increased with the parasite density at which treatment was initiated. Parasite density did not have a significant effect on TBS clearance. Conclusions: The Plasmodium 18S rRNA biomarker clears quickly and can be relied on to confirm the adequacy of Food and Drug Administration-approved treatments in CHMI studies at nonendemic sites.

Safety and Immunogenicity of Radiation-Attenuated PfSPZ Vaccine in Equatoguinean Infants, Children, and Adults.

The radiation-attenuated Plasmodium falciparum sporozoites (PfSPZ) Vaccine has demonstrated safety and immunogenicity in 5-month-old to 50-year-old Africans in multiple trials. Except for one, each trial has restricted enrollment to either infants and children or adults < 50 years old. This trial was conducted in Equatorial Guinea and assessed the safety, tolerability, and immunogenicity of three direct venous inoculations of 1.8 × 106 or 2.7 × 106 PfSPZ, of PfSPZ Vaccine, or normal saline administered at 8-week intervals in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial stratified by age (6-11 months and 1-5, 6-10, 11-17, 18-35, and 36-61 years). All doses were successfully administered. In all, 192/207 injections (93%) in those aged 6-61 years were rated as causing no or mild pain. There were no significant differences in solicited adverse events (AEs) between vaccinees and controls in any age group (P ≥ 0.17). There were no significant differences between vaccinees and controls with respect to the rates or severity of unsolicited AEs or laboratory abnormalities. Development of antibodies to P. falciparum circumsporozoite protein occurred in 67/69 vaccinees (97%) and 0/15 controls. Median antibody levels were highest in infants and 1-5-year-olds and declined progressively with age. Antibody responses in children were greater than in adults protected against controlled human malaria infection. Robust immunogenicity, combined with a benign AE profile, indicates children are an ideal target for immunization with PfSPZ Vaccine.

Identifying individual, household and environmental risk factors for malaria infection on Bioko Island to inform interventions.

BACKGROUND: Since 2004, malaria transmission on Bioko Island has declined significantly as a result of the scaling-up of control interventions. The aim of eliminating malaria from the Island remains elusive, however, underscoring the need to adapt control to the local context. Understanding the factors driving the risk of malaria infection is critical to inform optimal suits of interventions in this adaptive approach. METHODS: This study used individual and household-level data from the 2015 and 2018 annual malaria indicator surveys on Bioko Island, as well as remotely-sensed environmental data in multilevel logistic regression models to quantify the odds of malaria infection. The analyses were stratified by urban and rural settings and by survey year. RESULTS: Malaria prevalence was higher in 10-14-year-old children and similar between female and male individuals. After adjusting for demographic factors and other covariates, many of the variables investigated showed no significant association with malaria infection. The factor most strongly associated was history of travel to mainland Equatorial Guinea (mEG), which increased the odds significantly both in urban and rural settings (people who travelled had 4 times the odds of infection). Sleeping under a long-lasting insecticidal net decreased significantly the odds of malaria across urban and rural settings and survey years (net users had around 30% less odds of infection), highlighting their contribution to malaria control on the Island. Improved housing conditions indicated some protection, though this was not consistent across settings and survey year. CONCLUSIONS: Malaria risk on Bioko Island is heterogeneous and determined by a combination of factors interacting with local mosquito ecology. These interactions grant further investigation in order to better adapt control according to need. The single most important risk factor identified was travel to mEG, in line with previous investigations, and represents a great challenge for the success of malaria control on the Island.

Rethinking detection of pre-existing and intervening Plasmodium infections in malaria clinical trials.

Pre-existing and intervening low-density Plasmodium infections complicate the conduct of malaria clinical trials. These infections confound infection detection endpoints, and their immunological effects may detract from intended vaccine-induced immune responses. Historically, these infections were often unrecognized since infrequent and often analytically insensitive parasitological testing was performed before and during trials. Molecular diagnostics now permits their detection, but investigators must weigh the cost, complexity, and personnel demands on the study and the laboratory when scheduling such tests. This paper discusses the effect of pre-existing and intervening, low-density Plasmodium infections on malaria vaccine trial endpoints and the current methods employed for their infection detection. We review detection techniques, that until recently, provided a dearth of cost-effective strategies for detecting low density infections. A recently deployed, field-tested, simple, and cost-effective molecular diagnostic strategy for detecting pre-existing and intervening Plasmodium infections from dried blood spots (DBS) in malaria-endemic settings is discussed to inform new clinical trial designs. Strategies that combine sensitive molecular diagnostic techniques with convenient DBS collections and cost-effective pooling strategies may enable more thorough and informative infection monitoring in upcoming malaria clinical trials and epidemiological studies.

Feasibility of community at-home dried blood spot collection combined with pooled reverse transcription PCR as a viable and convenient method for malaria epidemiology studies.

BACKGROUND: Many Plasmodium infections in endemic regions exist at densities below the limit of detection of standard diagnostic tools. These infections threaten control efforts and may impact vaccine and therapeutic drug studies. Simple, cost-effective methods are needed to study the natural history of asymptomatic submicroscopic parasitaemia. Self-collected dried blood spots (DBS) analysed using pooled and individual quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) provide such a solution. Here, the feasibility and acceptability of daily at-home DBS collections for qRT-PCR was studied to better understand low-density infections. METHODS: Rapid diagnostic test (RDT)-negative individuals in Katakwi District, northeastern Uganda, were recruited between April and May 2021. Venous blood samples and clinic-collected DBS were taken at enrollment and at four weekly clinic visits. Participants were trained in DBS collection and asked to collect six DBS weekly between clinic visits. Opinions about the collection process were solicited using daily Diary Cards and a Likert scale survey at the final study visit. Venous blood and DBS were analysed by Plasmodium 18S rRNA qRT-PCR. The number of participants completing the study, total DBS collected, and opinions of the process were analysed to determine compliance and acceptability. The human internal control mRNA and Plasmodium 18S rRNA were evaluated for at-home vs. clinic-collected DBS and venous blood to assess quality and accuracy of at-home collected samples. RESULTS: One-hundred two adults and 29 children were enrolled, and 95 and 26 completed the study, respectively. Three individuals withdrew due to pain or inconvenience of procedures. Overall, 96% of participants collected ≥ 16 of 24 at-home DBS, and 87% of DBS contained ≥ 40 µL of blood. The procedure was well tolerated and viewed favourably by participants. At-home collected DBS were acceptable for qRT-PCR and showed less than a one qRT-PCR cycle threshold shift in the human control mRNA compared to clinic-collected DBS. Correlation between Plasmodium falciparum 18S rRNA from paired whole blood and DBS was high (R = 0.93). CONCLUSIONS: At-home DBS collection is a feasible, acceptable, and robust method to obtain blood to evaluate the natural history of low-density Plasmodium infections by qRT-PCR.

Case fatality risk of diarrhoeal pathogens: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of the relative contribution of different pathogens to all-cause diarrhoea mortality are needed to inform global diarrhoea burden models and prioritize interventions. We aimed to investigate and estimate heterogeneity in the case fatality risk (CFR) of different diarrhoeal pathogens. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies that reported cases and deaths for 15 enteric pathogens published between 1990 and 2019. The primary outcome was the pathogen-specific CFR stratified by age group, country-specific under-5 mortality rate, setting, study year and rotavirus vaccine introduction status. We developed fixed-effects and multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression models to estimate the pooled CFR overall and for each pathogen, controlling for potential predictors of heterogeneity. RESULTS: A total of 416 studies met review criteria and were included in the analysis. The overall crude CFR for all pathogens was 0.65%, but there was considerable heterogeneity between and within studies. The overall CFR estimated from a random-effects model was 0.04% (95% CI: 0.026%-0.062%), whereas the pathogen-specific CFR estimates ranged from 0% to 2.7%. When pathogens were included as predictors of the CFR in the overall model, the highest and lowest odds ratios were found for enteropathogenic Escherichia coli (EPEC) [odds ratio (OR) = 3.0, 95% CI: 1.28-7.07] and rotavirus (OR = 0.23, 95% CI: 0.13-0.39), respectively. CONCLUSION: We provide comprehensive estimates of the CFR across different diarrhoeal pathogens and highlight pathogens for which more studies are needed. The results motivate the need for diarrhoeal interventions and could help prioritize pathogens for vaccine development.

Application of dried blood spot sample pooling strategies for Plasmodium 18S rRNA biomarker testing to facilitate identification of infected persons in large-scale epidemiological studies.

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium 18S rRNA is a sensitive biomarker for detecting Plasmodium infection in human blood. Dried blood spots (DBS) are a practical sample type for malaria field studies to collect, store, and transport large quantities of blood samples for diagnostic testing. Pooled testing is a common way to reduce reagent costs and labour. This study examined performance of the Plasmodium 18S rRNA biomarker assay for DBS, improved assay sensitivity for pooled samples, and created graphical user interface (GUI) programmes for facilitating optimal pooling. METHODS: DBS samples of varied parasite densities from clinical specimens, Plasmodium falciparum in vitro culture, and P. falciparum Armored RNA® were tested using the Plasmodium 18S rRNA quantitative triplex reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) assay and a simplified duplex assay. DBS sample precision, linearity, limit of detection (LoD) and stability at varied storage temperatures were evaluated. Novel GUIs were created to model two-stage hierarchy, square matrix, and three-stage hierarchy pooling strategies with samples of varying positivity rates and estimated test counts. Seventy-eight DBS samples from persons residing in endemic regions with sub-patent infections were tested in pools and deconvoluted to identify positive cases. RESULTS: Assay performance showed linearity for DBS from 4 × 107 to 5 × 102 parasites/mL with strong correlation to liquid blood samples (r2 > 0.96). There was a minor quantitative reduction in DBS rRNA copies/mL compared to liquid blood samples. Analytical sensitivity for DBS was estimated 5.3 log copies 18S rRNA/mL blood (28 estimated parasites/mL). Properly preserved DBS demonstrated minimal degradation of 18S rRNA when stored at ambient temperatures for one month. A simplified duplex qRT-PCR assay omitting the human mRNA target showed improved analytical sensitivity, 1 parasite/mL blood, and was optimized for pooling. Optimal pooling sizes varied depending on prevalence. A pilot DBS study of the two-stage hierarchy pooling scheme corroborated results previously determined by testing individual DBS. CONCLUSIONS: The Plasmodium 18S rRNA biomarker assay can be applied to DBS collected in field studies. The simplified Plasmodium qRT-PCR assay and GUIs have been established to provide efficient means to test large quantities of DBS samples.

Clustering of subpatent infections in households with asymptomatic rapid diagnostic test-positive cases in Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea independent of travel to regions of higher malaria endemicity: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Prevalence of falciparum malaria on Bioko Island remains high despite sustained, intensive control. Progress may be hindered by high proportions of subpatent infections that are not detected by rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) but contribute to onward transmission, and by imported infections. Better understanding of the relationship between subpatent infections and RDT-detected infections, and whether this relationship is different from imported versus locally acquired infections, is imperative to better understand the sources of infection and mechanisms of transmission to tailor more effective interventions. METHODS: Quantitative reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) was performed on a sub-set of samples from the 2015 Malaria Indicator Survey to identify subpatent infections. Households with RDT(+) individuals were matched 1:4 with households with no RDT(+) individuals. The association between living in a household with an RDT(+) individual and having a subpatent infection was evaluated using multivariate hierarchical logistic regression models with inverse probability weights for selection. To evaluate possible modification of the association by potential importation of the RDT(+) case, the analysis was repeated among strata of matched sets based on the reported eight-week travel history of the RDT(+) individual(s). RESULTS: There were 142 subpatent infections detected in 1,400 individuals (10.0%). The prevalence of subpatent infections was higher in households with versus without an RDT(+) individual (15.0 vs 9.1%). The adjusted prevalence odds of subpatent infection were 2.59-fold greater (95% CI: 1.31, 5.09) for those in a household with an RDT(+) individual compared to individuals in a household without RDT(+) individuals. When stratifying by travel history of the RDT(+) individual, the association between subpatent infections and RDT(+) infections was stronger in the strata in which the RDT(+) individual(s) had not recently travelled (adjusted prevalence odds ratio (aPOR) 2.95; 95% CI:1.17, 7.41), and attenuated in the strata in which recent travel was reported (aPOR 1.76; 95% CI: 0.54, 5.67). CONCLUSIONS: There is clustering of subpatent infections around RDT(+) individual(s) when both imported and local infection are suspected. Future control strategies that aim to treat whole households in which an RDT(+) individual is found may target a substantial portion of infections that would otherwise not be detected.