RESUMO
BACKGROUND: COVID-19 continues to challenge neurologists in counselling persons with multiple sclerosis (pwMS) regarding disease-modifying treatment (DMT) and vaccination. The objective here was to characterize predictors of COVID-19 outcome in pwMS. METHODS: We included pwMS with PCR-confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis from a nationwide population-based registry. COVID-19 outcome was classified as either mild or severe. Impact of DMT, specifically anti-CD20 monoclonal antibodies, and vaccination on COVID-19 outcome was determined by multivariable models adjusted for a-priori-risk (determined by a cumulative risk score comprising age, disability and comorbidities). RESULTS: Of 317 pwMS with COVID-19 (mean age 41.8 years [SD 12.4], 72.9% female, median EDSS 1.5 [range 0-8.5], 77% on DMT [16% on antiCD20]), 92.7% had a mild course and 7.3% a severe course with 2.2% dying from COVID-19. Ninety-seven pwMS (30.6%) were fully vaccinated. After a median 5 months from vaccination to SARS-CoV-2 infection (range 1-9), severe COVID-19 occurred in 2.1% of fully vaccinated pwMS compared to 9.5% in unvaccinated pwMS (p=0.018). A-priori-risk robustly predicted COVID-19 severity (R2 0.605; p<0.001). Adjusting for a-priori-risk, anti-CD20 treatment was associated with increased COVID-19 severity (odds ratio [OR] 3.3; R2 0.113; p=0.003), but exposure to any other DMT was not. Fully vaccinated pwMS showed a significantly decreased risk for severe COVID-19 (OR 0.21, R2 0.144, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In a population-based MS cohort, COVID-19 course is primarily predicted by a-priori-risk (depending on age, disability and comorbidities) explaining about 60% of variance. Anti-CD20 treatment is associated with a moderately increased risk, while reassuringly vaccination provides protection from severe COVID-19.