700,000 years of tropical Andean glaciation.

Our understanding of the climatic teleconnections that drove ice-age cycles has been limited by a paucity of well-dated tropical records of glaciation that span several glacial-interglacial intervals. Glacial deposits offer discrete snapshots of glacier extent but cannot provide the continuous records required for detailed interhemispheric comparisons. By contrast, lakes located within glaciated catchments can provide continuous archives of upstream glacial activity, but few such records extend beyond the last glacial cycle. Here a piston core from Lake Junín in the uppermost Amazon basin provides the first, to our knowledge, continuous, independently dated archive of tropical glaciation spanning 700,000 years. We find that tropical glaciers tracked changes in global ice volume and followed a clear approximately 100,000-year periodicity. An enhancement in the extent of tropical Andean glaciers relative to global ice volume occurred between 200,000 and 400,000 years ago, during sustained intervals of regionally elevated hydrologic balance that modified the regular approximately 23,000-year pacing of monsoon-driven precipitation. Millennial-scale variations in the extent of tropical Andean glaciers during the last glacial cycle were driven by variations in regional monsoon strength that were linked to temperature perturbations in Greenland ice cores1; these interhemispheric connections may have existed during previous glacial cycles.

HMO behavior and stock market valuation: what does Wall Street reward and punish?

This article analyzes the variation in returns to owning stock in investor-owned health maintenance organizations (IOHMOs) for the period 1994-1997. The average return (measured by the change in the market value of the stock plus dividends) was close to zero, but returns were positive and high for firms operating in local markets that were and remained less competitive, with large nationwide scope, and with less rapidly growing panels of contracted physicians. Indicators of a firm's strategic direction were abstracted from their annual reports; firms pursuing a merger or acquisition strategy, and those emphasizing a utilization review strategy, showed lower returns than those that did not. Other strategy and market variables were not related to stock market returns over this period, and were also generally not related to price-earnings ratios. This analysis supports the view that competitive HMO markets best constrain profits to investor-owned firms.

The future catches up: a medical school curriculum in health economics.

Medical school curricula for too long have ignored the obvious and important changes in the economics and delivery of health care in the United States. Medical students, who become the practicing physicians of the future, and their patients have suffered because of this academic malaise. Most new physicians are even more confused than their patients about how to navigate outpatient managed care, how to practice efficiently (after being taught that more is better), and how to uphold their sacred trust with their patients in the context of institutionally based medicine. After summarizing relevant historical events, we discuss how we hope to begin making up for lost time by tackling the issue of necessary curriculum change at the University of Pennsylvania Health System.

The use of physician financial incentives and feedback to improve pediatric preventive care in Medicaid managed care.

OBJECTIVE: Immunizations and other cost-effective preventive services remain underused by many children, especially those living in poverty. Given the effectiveness of provider-based tracking systems and the widespread use by managed care organizations of financial incentives to influence physician practice patterns, we designed and tested an intervention combining these strategies. We studied whether a system of semiannual assessment and feedback, coupled with financial incentives, could improve pediatric preventive care in a Medicaid health maintenance organization (HMO). METHODOLOGY: We randomly assigned primary care sites serving children in a Medicaid HMO to one of three groups: a feedback group (where physicians received written feedback about compliance scores), a feedback and incentive group (where physicians received feedback and a financial bonus when compliance criteria were met), and a control group. We evaluated compliance with pediatric preventive care guidelines through semiannual chart audits during the years 1993 to 1995. RESULTS: Compliance with pediatric preventive care improved dramatically in the study period. Repeated measures ANOVA demonstrated a significant increase in all three study groups throughout the time in total compliance scores (from 56%-73%), as well as scores for immunizations (from 62%-79%) and other preventive care (from 54%-71%). However, no significant differences were observed between either intervention group and the control group, nor were there any interaction (group-by-time) effects. CONCLUSIONS: Feedback to physicians, with or without financial incentives, did not improve pediatric preventive care in this Medicaid HMO during a time of rapid, secular improvements in care. Possible explanations include the context and timing of the intervention, the magnitude of the financial incentives, and lack of physician awareness of the intervention.

Financial incentives and drug spending in managed care.

This study estimates the impact of patient financial incentives on the use and cost of prescription drugs in the context of differing physician payment mechanisms. A large data set was developed that covers persons in managed care who pay varying levels of cost sharing and whose physicians are compensated under two different models: independent practice association (IPA)-model and network-model health maintenance organizations (HMOs). Our results indicate that higher patient copayments for prescription drugs are associated with lower drug spending in IPA models (in which physicians are not at risk for drug costs) but have little effect in network models (in which physicians bear financial risk for all prescribing behavior).

Creating illegal immigrants.

PIP: This paper studies the prospects of implementation of guest-worker programs by governments that are based on an intended temporary presence of foreign workers. The purpose of guest- worker programs is to alleviate sector-specified labor shortages. The intention of a temporary stay is reflected in families left behind, and in the employers that often take responsibility for their workers' housing, health care, and other services during the temporary stay. Yet, some foreign workers prefer not to return home. In this case, the government and the employer ensure that the worker returns home after his legal employment. The government's intention is revealed through a policy granting the worker a temporary admission to the country. The legal employer pays a bond to bring in the foreign worker, and should the worker switch to illegal employment, the employer loses the value of the bond. Despite the intentions of the government, the legal employer can find his position to be quite precarious. If his legal workers are still with him at the end of the legal period of employment, it is only because they have rejected an illegal offer or they have never received an offer; and, if the worker leaves the legal employer just before he is to be deported, the employer has paid twice, once through the higher second-period wage and the second time by way of the forfeited bond. The anticipations for success of the intentions of temporary guest-worker programs can only be overly optimistic if the instruments used to enforce the policy are a bond and duration of permissible stay. The accumulation of an illegal population appears to be an inevitable consequence of a guest-worker program.^ieng

Financial incentives and drug spending in managed care.

Pharmaceutical costs have been rising dramatically since 1995, growing 16.6% in 1998 alone. This rate of increase is more than four times that of all health care spending. Employers, managed care organizations and consumers are looking anew for ways to stem these rising costs, without denying patients effective care. Therefore, this Issue Brief is especially timely because it investigates how patient copayments and financial incentives for physicians affect drug spending in managed care.

Physician financial incentives and feedback: failure to increase cancer screening in Medicaid managed care.

OBJECTIVES: A randomized controlled trial evaluated the impact of feedback and financial incentives on physician compliance with cancer screening guidelines for women 50 years of age and older in a Medicaid health maintenance organization (HMO). METHODS: Half of 52 primary care sites received the intervention, which included written feedback and a financial bonus. Mammography, breast exam, colorectal screening, and Pap testing compliance rates were evaluated. RESULTS: From 1993 to 1995, screening rates doubled overall (from 24% to 50%), with no significant differences between intervention and control group sites. CONCLUSIONS: Financial incentives and feedback did not improve physician compliance with cancer screening guidelines in a Medicaid HMO.

The effect of a redistribution system for health care for the elderly on the financial performance of health insurance societies in Japan.

Health care for the elderly in Japan is financed through a pool to which all insurers contribute. We analyzed insurers' financial data to evaluate this redistribution system. Cost sharing affected financial performance substantially. The current formula for cost-sharing redistributes elderly health care costs unequally and should be changed.

Health policy in transition: terminal care and site of death in Japan.

OBJECTIVES: In Japan, hospitals have replaced homes as the predominant site of death, especially for the elderly. Site of death is a reliable indicator of where older people receive care before they die. We conducted a population-based study to identify the factors that determine site of death in a typical rural area in Japan. METHODS: Study subjects were residents of Kawakami town, aged 70 years or older, who died during 1981 and 1990. Death certificates provided information on age, gender, cause of death, duration of illness before death, family members, family occupation, and site of death. RESULTS: Among 455 subjects, 52.7% died at home, while 47.3% died in hospital. Multiple logistic regression analyses indicated that subjects with cancer were 6.1 times more likely to die in hospitals than those with other diseases. Subjects who died in their seventies were 2.3 times more likely to die in hospital than older subjects. Members of non-farming families were 1.7 times more likely to die in hospital than members of farming families. Gender, duration of illness, and the presence of spouse or children in the household were not significantly related to site of death according to multivariate analyses, although trends did exist. CONCLUSION: This case study illustrates the importance of developing geriatric care systems in Japan, utilizing alternatives to hospitals, such as nursing homes and formal home care. This is particularly true for patients with cancer. As the older population rapidly increases in Japan, the need for alternatives in geriatric care grows more critical.

Competing practice guidelines: using cost-effectiveness analysis to make optimal decisions.

In this paper, cost and effectiveness data for six clinical interventions are applied simultaneously to a hypothetical population of 100,000 patients to show how selecting guidelines to maximize overall population benefit compares with selecting the best guidelines for individual patients. By entering effectiveness (added survival) and cost information from recent prevention, screening, diagnostic, and therapeutic guidelines into a computer-based optimization model, the options that maximized overall population effectiveness while keeping additional cost within varying specified constraints were identified. In 57% of selection opportunities, the clusters of guidelines that yielded maximum population benefit differed from those that maximized benefit for individual patients. Some choices were more stable than others over ranges of cost constraints. Clinical practice guidelines chosen to maximize cost-effectiveness for individual patients often do not maximize cost-effectiveness for populations of patients. To allocate resources as efficiently as possible, decision makers should consider other sources of information in addition to the recommendations of specific practice guidelines. "Robust" guidelines that simultaneously address both individual and societal health benefit should be sought.

"Virtual" clinical trials: case control experiments utilizing a health services research workstation.

We created an interface to a growing repository of clinical and administrative information to facilitate the design and execution of case-control experiments. The system enables knowledgeable users to generate and test hypotheses regarding associations among diseases and outcomes. The intuitive interface allows the user to specify criteria for selecting cases and defining putative risks. The repository contains comprehensive administrative and selected clinical information on all ambulatory and emergency department visits as well as hospital admissions since 1994. We tested the workstation's ability to determine relationships between outpatient diagnoses including hypertension, osteoarthritis and hypercholesterolemia with the occurrence of admissions for stroke and myocardial infarction and achieved results consistent with published studies. Successful implementation of this Health Services Research Workstation will allow "virtual" clinical trials to validate the results of formal clinical trials on a local population and may provide meaningful analyses of data when formal clinical trials are not feasible.

When is a cost-effectiveness claim valid? How much should the FDA care?

Federal law requires the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to regulate the promotional claims of prescription drugs and certain devices. Standards of evidence for claims of safety and therapeutic efficacy are rigorous because inappropriate product use may place human life at risk. However, equally demanding criteria for claims of cost-effectiveness of marketed technologies seem to be unnecessary because the consequence of error is principally a bad buy rather than patient harm. Concern exists about the validity of cost-effectiveness studies, the potential for bias, standards for the conduct of cost-effectiveness research, and the needs of managed care. The FDA should moderate its role in regulating cost-effectiveness claims of drugs and devices. This would foster information flow to healthcare providers and insurers and protect the FDA concern regarding false or misleading claims of effectiveness. Although the issues are applicable to both devices and drugs, we draw mainly from the field of pharmacoeconomics because this is where most of the policy has developed.

Applied pharmacoeconomics. When can publication be legitimately withheld?

Pharmacoeconomic studies can help decision-makers choose the most efficient drug treatments in our internationally cost-constrained healthcare environment. However, perceptions of bias about the nature of many economic evaluations limit the usefulness of pharmacoeconomic data to decision-makers. In an effort to increase the credibility of pharmacoeconomic studies, several groups have developed methodological guidelines, and one has developed ethical guidelines for these evaluations. In this article, we evaluate issues related to the publication of the results of pharmacoeconomic studies. Pharmacoeconomics is a true science (and should be so treated), rather than a form of marketing. Pharmacoeconomic studies must undergo the same peer review process and be published in serious research journals, as are other types of scientific investigations. Investigators should attempt to publish the results of pharmacoeconomic studies, even (and, perhaps, especially) when the results are not favourable to the sponsor. However, there are acceptable reasons to withhold publication of 'negative' results. For example, when methodological problems plague a study, or when the study addresses an investigational drug not likely to be approved, then researchers are justified in giving up on publication, if they so choose. Similarly, feasibility studies to test methods of data collection or analyses conducted very early in the drug development process need not always be published. Nonetheless, access to all important investigations--regardless of whether the results are positive or negative--will become more important as healthcare becomes more evidence-based, as decisions have impact on large populations of people, and as those in charge of formularies actually begin to use cost-effectiveness analysis to help make choices among competing drugs.

The effects of health insurance on access to new medical technologies.

We examined the use of percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty, kidney stone lithotripsy, and bone marrow transplant among patients with different health insurance plans in California. HMO enrollees were less likely to receive these procedures compared with fee-for-service patients. Our results have implications for the inflationary effects of technology under managed care.

Gene therapy: socioeconomic and ethical issues. A roundtable discussion.

Gene therapy research has the potential to revolutionize the way in which many human diseases are treated. Despite its enormous potential, roundtable panelists concluded that the field needs time to mature scientifically without pressure to develop a marketable therapeutic product. In addition, health care decision makers, physicians, and the lay public need to be educated on the future medical, economic, and ethical ramifications of gene therapy.