A climate vulnerability assessment of the fish community in the Western Baltic Sea.

Marine fisheries are increasingly impacted by climate change, affecting species distribution and productivity, and necessitating urgent adaptation efforts. Climate vulnerability assessments (CVA), integrating expert knowledge, are vital for identifying species that could thrive or suffer under changing environmental conditions. This study presents a first CVA for the Western Baltic Sea's fish community, a crucial fishing area for Denmark and Germany. Characterized by a unique mix of marine, brackish, and freshwater species, this coastal ecosystem faces significant changes due to the combined effects of overfishing, eutrophication and climate change. Our CVA involved a qualitative expert scoring of 22 fish species, assessing their sensitivity and exposure to climate change. Our study revealed a dichotomy in climate change vulnerability within the fish community of the Western Baltic Sea because traditional fishing targets cod and herring as well as other species with complex life histories are considered to face increased risks, whereas invasive or better adaptable species might thrive under changing conditions. Our findings hence demonstrate the complex interplay between life-history traits and climate change vulnerability in marine fish communities. Eventually, our study provides critical knowledge for the urgent development of tailored adaptation efforts addressing existing but especially future effects of climate change on fish and fisheries in the Western Baltic Sea, to navigate this endangered fisheries systems into a sustainable future.

Tracing growth patterns in cod (Gadus morhua L.) using bioenergetic modelling.

Understanding individual growth in commercially exploited fish populations is key to successful stock assessment and informed ecosystem-based fisheries management. Traditionally, growth rates in marine fish are estimated using otolith age-readings in combination with age-length relationships from field samples, or tag-recapture field experiments. However, for some species, otolith-based approaches have been proven unreliable and tag-recapture experiments suffer from high working effort and costs as well as low recapture rates. An important alternative approach for estimating fish growth is represented by bioenergetic modelling which in addition to pure growth estimation can provide valuable insights into the processes leading to temporal growth changes resulting from environmental and related behavioural changes. We here developed an individual-based bioenergetic model for Western Baltic cod (Gadus morhua), traditionally a commercially important fish species that however collapsed recently and likely suffers from climate change effects. Western Baltic cod is an ideal case study for bioenergetic modelling because of recently gained in-situ process knowledge on spatial distribution and feeding behaviour based on highly resolved data on stomachs and fish distribution. Additionally, physiological processes such as gastric evacuation, consumption, net-conversion efficiency and metabolic rates have been well studied for cod in laboratory experiments. Our model reliably reproduced seasonal growth patterns observed in the field. Importantly, our bioenergetic modelling approach implementing depth-use patterns and food intake allowed us to explain the potentially detrimental effect summer heat periods have on the growth of Western Baltic cod that likely will increasingly occur in the future. Hence, our model simulations highlighted a potential mechanism on how warming due to climate change affects the growth of a key species that may apply for similar environments elsewhere.

Genetic analyses reveal complex dynamics within a marine fish management area.

Genetic data have great potential for improving fisheries management by identifying the fundamental management units-that is, the biological populations-and their mixing. However, so far, the number of practical cases of marine fisheries management using genetics has been limited. Here, we used Atlantic cod in the Baltic Sea to demonstrate the applicability of genetics to a complex management scenario involving mixing of two genetically divergent populations. Specifically, we addressed several assumptions used in the current assessment of the two populations. Through analysis of 483 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) distributed across the Atlantic cod genome, we confirmed that a model of mechanical mixing, rather than hybridization and introgression, best explained the pattern of genetic differentiation. Thus, the fishery is best monitored as a mixed-stock fishery. Next, we developed a targeted panel of 39 SNPs with high statistical power for identifying population of origin and analyzed more than 2,000 tissue samples collected between 2011 and 2015 as well as 260 otoliths collected in 2003/2004. These data provided high spatial resolution and allowed us to investigate geographical trends in mixing, to compare patterns for different life stages and to investigate temporal trends in mixing. We found similar geographical trends for the two time points represented by tissue and otolith samples and that a recently implemented geographical management separation of the two populations provided a relatively close match to their distributions. In contrast to the current assumption, we found that patterns of mixing differed between juveniles and adults, a signal likely linked to the different reproductive dynamics of the two populations. Collectively, our data confirm that genetics is an operational tool for complex fisheries management applications. We recommend focussing on developing population assessment models and fisheries management frameworks to capitalize fully on the additional information offered by genetically assisted fisheries monitoring.

Use of existing hydrographic infrastructure to forecast the environmental spawning conditions for Eastern Baltic cod.

The semi-enclosed nature and estuarine characteristics, together with its strongly alternating bathymetry, make the Baltic Sea prone to much stronger interannual variations in the abiotic environment, than other spawning habitats of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Processes determining salinity and oxygen conditions in the basins are influenced both by long term gradual climate change, e.g. global warming, but also by short-term meteorological variations and events. Specifically one main factor influencing cod spawning conditions, the advection of highly saline and well-oxygenated water masses from the North Sea, is observed in irregular frequencies and causes strong interannual variations in stock productivity. This study investigates the possibility to use the available hydrographic process knowledge to predict the annual spawning conditions for Eastern Baltic cod in its most important spawning ground, the Bornholm Basin, only by salinity measurements from a specific location in the western Baltic. Such a prediction could serve as an environmental early warning indicator to inform stock assessment and management. Here we used a hydrodynamic model to hindcast hydrographic property fields for the last 40+ years. High and significant correlations were found for months early in the year between the 33m salinity level in the Arkona Basin and the oxygen-dependent cod spawning environment in the Bornholm Basin. Direct prediction of the Eastern Baltic cod egg survival in the Bornholm Basin based on salinity values in the Arkona Basin at the 33 m depth level is shown to be possible for eggs spawned by mid-age and young females, which currently predominate the stock structure. We recommend to routinely perform short-term predictions of the Eastern Baltic cod spawning environment, in order to generate environmental information highly relevant for stock dynamics. Our statistical approach offers the opportunity to make best use of permanently existing infrastructure in the western Baltic to timely provide scientific knowledge on the spawning conditions of Eastern Baltic cod. Furthermore it could be a tool to assist ecosystem-based fisheries management with a cost-effective implementation by including the short term predictions as a simple indicator in the annual assessments.

Combining hydrodynamic modelling with genetics: can passive larval drift shape the genetic structure of Baltic Mytilus populations?

While secondary contact between Mytilus edulis and Mytilus trossulus in North America results in mosaic hybrid zone formation, both species form a hybrid swarm in the Baltic. Despite pervasive gene flow, Baltic Mytilus species maintain substantial genetic and phenotypic differentiation. Exploring mechanisms underlying the contrasting genetic composition in Baltic Mytilus species will allow insights into processes such as speciation or adaptation to extremely low salinity. Previous studies in the Baltic indicated that only weak interspecific reproductive barriers exist and discussed the putative role of adaptation to environmental conditions. Using a combination of hydrodynamic modelling and multilocus genotyping, we investigate how oceanographic conditions influence passive larval dispersal and hybrid swarm formation in the Baltic. By combining our analyses with previous knowledge, we show a genetic transition of Baltic Mytilus species along longitude 12°-13°E, that is a virtual line between Malmö (Sweden) and Stralsund (Germany). Although larval transport only occurs over short distances (10-30 km), limited larval dispersal could not explain the position of this genetic transition zone. Instead, the genetic transition zone is located at the area of maximum salinity change (15-10 psu). Thus, we argue that selection results in weak reproductive barriers and local adaptation. This scenario could maintain genetic and phenotypic differences between Baltic Mytilus species despite pervasive introgressive hybridization.

Broad-scale climate influences on spring-spawning herring (Clupea harengus, L.) recruitment in the Western Baltic Sea.

Climate forcing in complex ecosystems can have profound implications for ecosystem sustainability and may thus challenge a precautionary ecosystem management. Climatic influences documented to affect various ecological functions on a global scale, may themselves be observed on quantitative or qualitative scales including regime shifts in complex marine ecosystems. This study investigates the potential climatic impact on the reproduction success of spring-spawning herring (Clupea harengus) in the Western Baltic Sea (WBSS herring). To test for climate effects on reproduction success, the regionally determined and scientifically well-documented spawning grounds of WBSS herring represent an ideal model system. Climate effects on herring reproduction were investigated using two global indices of atmospheric variability and sea surface temperature, represented by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), respectively, and the Baltic Sea Index (BSI) which is a regional-scale atmospheric index for the Baltic Sea. Moreover, we combined a traditional approach with modern time series analysis based on a recruitment model connecting parental population components with reproduction success. Generalized transfer functions (ARIMAX models) allowed evaluating the dynamic nature of exogenous climate processes interacting with the endogenous recruitment process. Using different model selection criteria our results reveal that in contrast to NAO and AMO, the BSI shows a significant positive but delayed signal on the annual dynamics of herring recruitment. The westward influence of the Siberian high is considered strongly suppressing the influence of the NAO in this area leading to a higher explanatory power of the BSI reflecting the atmospheric pressure regime on a North-South transect between Oslo, Norway and Szczecin, Poland. We suggest incorporating climate-induced effects into stock and risk assessments and management strategies as part of the EU ecosystem approach to support sustainable herring fisheries in the Western Baltic Sea.