Not missing at random: Missing data are associated with clinical status and trajectories in an electronic monitoring longitudinal study of bipolar disorder.

There is limited information on the association between participants' clinical status or trajectories and missing data in electronic monitoring studies of bipolar disorder (BD). We collected self-ratings scales and sensor data in 145 adults with BD. Using a new metric, Missing Data Ratio (MDR), we assessed missing self-rating data and sensor data monitoring activity and sleep. Missing data were lowest for participants in the midst of a depressive episode, intermediate for participants with subsyndromal symptoms, and highest for participants who were euthymic. Over a mean ± SD follow-up of 246 ± 181 days, missing data remained unchanged for participants whose clinical status did not change throughout the study (i.e., those who entered the study in a depressive episode and did not improve, or those who entered the study euthymic and remained euthymic). Conversely, when participants' clinical status changed during the study (e.g., those who entered the study euthymic and experienced the occurrence of a depressive episode), missing data for self-rating scales increased, but not for sensor data. Overall missing data were associated with participants' clinical status and its changes, suggesting that these are not missing at random.

Reducing Epistasis and Pleiotropy Can Avoid the Survival of the Flattest Tragedy.

This study investigates whether reducing epistasis and pleiotropy enhances mutational robustness in evolutionary adaptation, utilizing an indirect encoded model within the "survival of the flattest" (SoF) fitness landscape. By simulating genetic variations and their phenotypic consequences, we explore organisms' adaptive mechanisms to maintain positions on higher, narrower evolutionary peaks amidst environmental and genetic pressures. Our results reveal that organisms can indeed sustain their advantageous positions by minimizing the complexity of genetic interactions-specifically, by reducing the levels of epistasis and pleiotropy. This finding suggests a counterintuitive strategy for evolutionary stability: simpler genetic architectures, characterized by fewer gene interactions and multifunctional genes, confer a survival advantage by enhancing mutational robustness. This study contributes to our understanding of the genetic underpinnings of adaptability and robustness, challenging traditional views that equate complexity with fitness in dynamic environments.

Robustness of Sparsely Distributed Representations to Adversarial Attacks in Deep Neural Networks.

Deep learning models have achieved an impressive performance in a variety of tasks, but they often suffer from overfitting and are vulnerable to adversarial attacks. Previous research has shown that dropout regularization is an effective technique that can improve model generalization and robustness. In this study, we investigate the impact of dropout regularization on the ability of neural networks to withstand adversarial attacks, as well as the degree of "functional smearing" between individual neurons in the network. Functional smearing in this context describes the phenomenon that a neuron or hidden state is involved in multiple functions at the same time. Our findings confirm that dropout regularization can enhance a network's resistance to adversarial attacks, and this effect is only observable within a specific range of dropout probabilities. Furthermore, our study reveals that dropout regularization significantly increases the distribution of functional smearing across a wide range of dropout rates. However, it is the fraction of networks with lower levels of functional smearing that exhibit greater resilience against adversarial attacks. This suggests that, even though dropout improves robustness to fooling, one should instead try to decrease functional smearing.

Detecting Information Relays in Deep Neural Networks.

Deep learning of artificial neural networks (ANNs) is creating highly functional processes that are, unfortunately, nearly as hard to interpret as their biological counterparts. Identification of functional modules in natural brains plays an important role in cognitive and neuroscience alike, and can be carried out using a wide range of technologies such as fMRI, EEG/ERP, MEG, or calcium imaging. However, we do not have such robust methods at our disposal when it comes to understanding functional modules in artificial neural networks. Ideally, understanding which parts of an artificial neural network perform what function might help us to address a number of vexing problems in ANN research, such as catastrophic forgetting and overfitting. Furthermore, revealing a network's modularity could improve our trust in them by making these black boxes more transparent. Here, we introduce a new information-theoretic concept that proves useful in understanding and analyzing a network's functional modularity: the relay information IR. The relay information measures how much information groups of neurons that participate in a particular function (modules) relay from inputs to outputs. Combined with a greedy search algorithm, relay information can be used to identify computational modules in neural networks. We also show that the functionality of modules correlates with the amount of relay information they carry.

Identifying patient-specific behaviors to understand illness trajectories and predict relapses in bipolar disorder using passive sensing and deep anomaly detection: protocol for a contactless cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Predictive models for mental disorders or behaviors (e.g., suicide) have been successfully developed at the level of populations, yet current demographic and clinical variables are neither sensitive nor specific enough for making individual clinical predictions. Forecasting episodes of illness is particularly relevant in bipolar disorder (BD), a mood disorder with high recurrence, disability, and suicide rates. Thus, to understand the dynamic changes involved in episode generation in BD, we propose to extract and interpret individual illness trajectories and patterns suggestive of relapse using passive sensing, nonlinear techniques, and deep anomaly detection. Here we describe the study we have designed to test this hypothesis and the rationale for its design. METHOD: This is a protocol for a contactless cohort study in 200 adult BD patients. Participants will be followed for up to 2 years during which they will be monitored continuously using passive sensing, a wearable that collects multimodal physiological (heart rate variability) and objective (sleep, activity) data. Participants will complete (i) a comprehensive baseline assessment; (ii) weekly assessments; (iii) daily assessments using electronic rating scales. Data will be analyzed using nonlinear techniques and deep anomaly detection to forecast episodes of illness. DISCUSSION: This proposed contactless, large cohort study aims to obtain and combine high-dimensional, multimodal physiological, objective, and subjective data. Our work, by conceptualizing mood as a dynamic property of biological systems, will demonstrate the feasibility of incorporating individual variability in a model informing clinical trajectories and predicting relapse in BD.

Understanding Memories of the Past in the Context of Different Complex Neural Network Architectures.

Deep learning (primarily using backpropagation) and neuroevolution are the preeminent methods of optimizing artificial neural networks. However, they often create black boxes that are as hard to understand as the natural brains they seek to mimic. Previous work has identified an information-theoretic tool, referred to as R, which allows us to quantify and identify mental representations in artificial cognitive systems. The use of such measures has allowed us to make previous black boxes more transparent. Here we extend R to not only identify where complex computational systems store memory about their environment but also to differentiate between different time points in the past. We show how this extended measure can identify the location of memory related to past experiences in neural networks optimized by deep learning as well as a genetic algorithm.

Comparative Transcriptomics Reveals Distinct Patterns of Gene Expression Conservation through Vertebrate Embryogenesis.

Despite life's diversity, studies of variation often remind us of our shared evolutionary past. Abundant genome sequencing and analyses of gene regulatory networks illustrate that genes and entire pathways are conserved, reused, and elaborated in the evolution of diversity. Predating these discoveries, 19th-century embryologists observed that though morphology at birth varies tremendously, certain stages of vertebrate embryogenesis appear remarkably similar across vertebrates. In the mid to late 20th century, anatomical variability of early and late-stage embryos and conservation of mid-stages embryos (the "phylotypic" stage) was named the hourglass model of diversification. This model has found mixed support in recent analyses comparing gene expression across species possibly owing to differences in species, embryonic stages, and gene sets compared. We compare 186 microarray and RNA-seq data sets covering embryogenesis in six vertebrate species. We use an unbiased clustering approach to group stages of embryogenesis by transcriptomic similarity and ask whether gene expression similarity of clustered embryonic stages deviates from a null expectation. We characterize expression conservation patterns of each gene at each evolutionary node after correcting for phylogenetic nonindependence. We find significant enrichment of genes exhibiting early conservation, hourglass, late conservation patterns in both microarray and RNA-seq data sets. Enrichment of genes showing patterned conservation through embryogenesis indicates diversification of embryogenesis may be temporally constrained. However, the circumstances under which each pattern emerges remain unknown and require both broad evolutionary sampling and systematic examination of embryogenesis across species.

Inclusive groups can avoid the tragedy of the commons.

The public goods game is a famous example illustrating the tragedy of the commons (Hardin in Science 162:1243-1248, 1968). In this game cooperating individuals contribute to a pool, which in turn is distributed to all members of the group, including defectors who reap the same rewards as cooperators without having made a contribution before. The question is now, how to incentivize group members to all cooperate as it maximizes the common good. While costly punishment (Helbing et al. in New J Phys 12:083005, 2010) presents one such method, the cost of punishment still reduces the common good. The selfishness of the group members favors defectors. Here we show that including other members of the groups and sharing rewards with them can be another incentive for cooperation, avoiding the cost required for punishment. Further, we show how punishment and this form of inclusiveness interact. This work suggests that a redistribution similar to a basic income that is coupled to the economic success of the entire group could overcome the tragedy of the commons.

Open-Endedness for the Sake of Open-Endedness.

Natural evolution keeps inventing new complex and intricate forms and behaviors. Digital evolution and genetic algorithms fail to create the same kind of complexity, not just because we still lack the computational resources to rival nature, but because (it has been argued) we have not understood in principle how to create open-ended evolving systems. Much effort has been made to define such open-endedness so as to create forms of increasing complexity indefinitely. Here, however, a simple evolving computational system that satisfies all such requirements is presented. Doing so reveals a shortcoming in the definitions for open-ended evolution. The goal to create models that rival biological complexity remains. This work suggests that our current definitions allow for even simple models to pass as open-ended, and that our definitions of complexity and diversity are more important for the quest of open-ended evolution than the fact that something runs indefinitely.

The Evolution of Neuroplasticity and the Effect on Integrated Information.

Information integration theory has been developed to quantify consciousness. Since conscious thought requires the integration of information, the degree of this integration can be used as a neural correlate (Φ) with the intent to measure degree of consciousness. Previous research has shown that the ability to integrate information can be improved by Darwinian evolution. The value Φ can change over many generations, and complex tasks require systems with at least a minimum Φ . This work was done using simple animats that were able to remember previous sensory inputs, but were incapable of fundamental change during their lifetime: actions were predetermined or instinctual. Here, we are interested in changes to Φ due to lifetime learning (also known as neuroplasticity). During lifetime learning, the system adapts to perform a task and necessitates a functional change, which in turn could change Φ . One can find arguments to expect one of three possible outcomes: Φ might remain constant, increase, or decrease due to learning. To resolve this, we need to observe systems that learn, but also improve their ability to learn over the many generations that Darwinian evolution requires. Quantifying Φ over the course of evolution, and over the course of their lifetimes, allows us to investigate how the ability to integrate information changes. To measure Φ , the internal states of the system must be experimentally observable. However, these states are notoriously difficult to observe in a natural system. Therefore, we use a computational model that not only evolves virtual agents (animats), but evolves animats to learn during their lifetime. We use this approach to show that a system that improves its performance due to feedback learning increases its ability to integrate information. In addition, we show that a system's ability to increase Φ correlates with its ability to increase in performance. This suggests that systems that are very plastic regarding Φ learn better than those that are not.

Thermodynamics of evolutionary games.

How cooperation can evolve between players is an unsolved problem of biology. Here we use Hamiltonian dynamics of models of the Ising type to describe populations of cooperating and defecting players to show that the equilibrium fraction of cooperators is given by the expectation value of a thermal observable akin to a magnetization. We apply the formalism to the public goods game with three players and show that a phase transition between cooperation and defection occurs that is equivalent to a transition in one-dimensional Ising crystals with long-range interactions. We then investigate the effect of punishment on cooperation and find that punishment plays the role of a magnetic field that leads to an "alignment" between players, thus encouraging cooperation. We suggest that a thermal Hamiltonian picture of the evolution of cooperation can generate other insights about the dynamics of evolving groups by mining the rich literature of critical dynamics in low-dimensional spin systems.

Episode forecasting in bipolar disorder: Is energy better than mood?

OBJECTIVE: Bipolar disorder is a severe mood disorder characterized by alternating episodes of mania and depression. Several interventions have been developed to decrease high admission rates and high suicides rates associated with the illness, including psychoeducation and early episode detection, with mixed results. More recently, machine learning approaches have been used to aid clinical diagnosis or to detect a particular clinical state; however, contradictory results arise from confusion around which of the several automatically generated data are the most contributory and useful to detect a particular clinical state. Our aim for this study was to apply machine learning techniques and nonlinear analyses to a physiological time series dataset in order to find the best predictor for forecasting episodes in mood disorders. METHODS: We employed three different techniques: entropy calculations and two different machine learning approaches (genetic programming and Markov Brains as classifiers) to determine whether mood, energy or sleep was the best predictor to forecast a mood episode in a physiological time series. RESULTS: Evening energy was the best predictor for both manic and depressive episodes in each of the three aforementioned techniques. This suggests that energy might be a better predictor than mood for forecasting mood episodes in bipolar disorder and that these particular machine learning approaches are valuable tools to be used clinically. CONCLUSIONS: Energy should be considered as an important factor for episode prediction. Machine learning approaches provide better tools to forecast episodes and to increase our understanding of the processes that underlie mood regulation.

Evolving autonomous learning in cognitive networks.

There are two common approaches for optimizing the performance of a machine: genetic algorithms and machine learning. A genetic algorithm is applied over many generations whereas machine learning works by applying feedback until the system meets a performance threshold. These methods have been previously combined, particularly in artificial neural networks using an external objective feedback mechanism. We adapt this approach to Markov Brains, which are evolvable networks of probabilistic and deterministic logic gates. Prior to this work MB could only adapt from one generation to the other, so we introduce feedback gates which augment their ability to learn during their lifetime. We show that Markov Brains can incorporate these feedback gates in such a way that they do not rely on an external objective feedback signal, but instead can generate internal feedback that is then used to learn. This results in a more biologically accurate model of the evolution of learning, which will enable us to study the interplay between evolution and learning and could be another step towards autonomously learning machines.

Origin of life in a digital microcosm.

While all organisms on Earth share a common descent, there is no consensus on whether the origin of the ancestral self-replicator was a one-off event or whether it only represented the final survivor of multiple origins. Here, we use the digital evolution system Avida to study the origin of self-replicating computer programs. By using a computational system, we avoid many of the uncertainties inherent in any biochemical system of self-replicators (while running the risk of ignoring a fundamental aspect of biochemistry). We generated the exhaustive set of minimal-genome self-replicators and analysed the network structure of this fitness landscape. We further examined the evolvability of these self-replicators and found that the evolvability of a self-replicator is dependent on its genomic architecture. We also studied the differential ability of replicators to take over the population when competed against each other, akin to a primordial-soup model of biogenesis, and found that the probability of a self-replicator outcompeting the others is not uniform. Instead, progenitor (most-recent common ancestor) genotypes are clustered in a small region of the replicator space. Our results demonstrate how computational systems can be used as test systems for hypotheses concerning the origin of life.This article is part of the themed issue 'Reconceptualizing the origins of life'.

A genome wide dosage suppressor network reveals genomic robustness.

Genomic robustness is the extent to which an organism has evolved to withstand the effects of deleterious mutations. We explored the extent of genomic robustness in budding yeast by genome wide dosage suppressor analysis of 53 conditional lethal mutations in cell division cycle and RNA synthesis related genes, revealing 660 suppressor interactions of which 642 are novel. This collection has several distinctive features, including high co-occurrence of mutant-suppressor pairs within protein modules, highly correlated functions between the pairs and higher diversity of functions among the co-suppressors than previously observed. Dosage suppression of essential genes encoding RNA polymerase subunits and chromosome cohesion complex suggests a surprising degree of functional plasticity of macromolecular complexes, and the existence of numerous degenerate pathways for circumventing the effects of potentially lethal mutations. These results imply that organisms and cancer are likely able to exploit the genomic robustness properties, due the persistence of cryptic gene and pathway functions, to generate variation and adapt to selective pressures.

Evolvability Tradeoffs in Emergent Digital Replicators.

The role of historical contingency in the origin of life is one of the great unknowns in modern science. Only one example of life exists-one that proceeded from a single self-replicating organism (or a set of replicating hypercycles) to the vast complexity we see today in Earth's biosphere. We know that emergent life has the potential to evolve great increases in complexity, but it is unknown if evolvability is automatic given any self-replicating organism. At the same time, it is difficult to test such questions in biochemical systems. Laboratory studies with RNA replicators have had some success with exploring the capacities of simple self-replicators, but these experiments are still limited in both capabilities and scope. Here, we use the digital evolution system Avida to explore the interplay between emergent replicators (rare randomly assembled self-replicators) and evolvability. We find that we can classify fixed-length emergent replicators in Avida into two classes based on functional analysis. One class is more evolvable in the sense of optimizing the replicators' replication abilities. However, the other class is more evolvable in the sense of acquiring evolutionary innovations. We tie this tradeoff in evolvability to the structure of the respective classes' replication machinery, and speculate on the relevance of these results to biochemical replicators.

Evolutionary game theory using agent-based methods.

Evolutionary game theory is a successful mathematical framework geared towards understanding the selective pressures that affect the evolution of the strategies of agents engaged in interactions with potential conflicts. While a mathematical treatment of the costs and benefits of decisions can predict the optimal strategy in simple settings, more realistic settings such as finite populations, non-vanishing mutations rates, stochastic decisions, communication between agents, and spatial interactions, require agent-based methods where each agent is modeled as an individual, carries its own genes that determine its decisions, and where the evolutionary outcome can only be ascertained by evolving the population of agents forward in time. While highlighting standard mathematical results, we compare those to agent-based methods that can go beyond the limitations of equations and simulate the complexity of heterogeneous populations and an ever-changing set of interactors. We conclude that agent-based methods can predict evolutionary outcomes where purely mathematical treatments cannot tread (for example in the weak selection-strong mutation limit), but that mathematics is crucial to validate the computational simulations.

The Evolution of Generosity in the Ultimatum Game.

When humans fail to make optimal decisions in strategic games and economic gambles, researchers typically try to explain why that behaviour is biased. To this end, they search for mechanisms that cause human behaviour to deviate from what seems to be the rational optimum. But perhaps human behaviour is not biased; perhaps research assumptions about the optimality of strategies are incomplete. In the one-shot anonymous symmetric ultimatum game (UG), humans fail to play optimally as defined by the Nash equilibrium. However, the distinction between kin and non-kin-with kin detection being a key evolutionary adaption-is often neglected when deriving the "optimal" strategy. We computationally evolved strategies in the UG that were equipped with an evolvable probability to discern kin from non-kin. When an opponent was not kin, agents evolved strategies that were similar to those used by humans. We therefore conclude that the strategy humans play is not irrational. The deviation between behaviour and the Nash equilibrium may rather be attributable to key evolutionary adaptations, such as kin detection. Our findings further suggest that social preference models are likely to capture mechanisms that permit people to play optimally in an evolutionary context. Once this context is taken into account, human behaviour no longer appears irrational.

The Janus face of Darwinian competition.

Without competition, organisms would not evolve any meaningful physical or cognitive abilities. Competition can thus be understood as the driving force behind Darwinian evolution. But does this imply that more competitive environments necessarily evolve organisms with more sophisticated cognitive abilities than do less competitive environments? Or is there a tipping point at which competition does more harm than good? We examine the evolution of decision strategies among virtual agents performing a repetitive sampling task in three distinct environments. The environments differ in the degree to which the actions of a competitor can affect the fitness of the sampling agent, and in the variance of the sample. Under weak competition, agents evolve decision strategies that sample often and make accurate decisions, which not only improve their own fitness, but are good for the entire population. Under extreme competition, however, the dark side of the Janus face of Darwinian competition emerges: Agents are forced to sacrifice accuracy for speed and are prevented from sampling as often as higher variance in the environment would require. Modest competition is therefore a good driver for the evolution of cognitive abilities and of the population as a whole, whereas too much competition is devastating.