Cost of illness for colorectal cancer in Japan - a time trend and future projections (1996-2035) based on governmental statistics.

BACKGROUND: In Japan, the crude mortality rate of colorectal cancer is the second highest among men and highest among women by site. We aimed to calculate the social burden of colorectal cancer using the cost of illness (COI) method and identify the main factors that drove changes in the COI. METHODS: From 1996 to 2020, the COI was estimated by summing direct, morbidity, and mortality costs. In addition, the COI by 2035 was projected by fitting approximate curves obtained from historical data to health-related indicators by sex and age. Future projections of the number of patients by the stage of disease were also made to explore the factors that changed the COI. RESULTS: The number of deaths and incidence from colorectal cancer was expected to continue increasing due to population aging. However, the COI was projected to rise from 850.3 billion yen in 1996 to 1.451 trillion yen in 2020, and peaked at 1.478 trillion yen in 2023 before it declined. CONCLUSION: Although the increased number of deaths associated with population aging increased COI, it was expected that the COI would decrease around 2023 due to a decrease in the human capital value of the deceased. In addition, the mortality rate was expected to decrease in the future due to an increase in the percentage of early detection of colorectal cancer via widespread screening and advances in medical technology.

Involvement of methodological experts and the quality of clinical practice guidelines: a critical appraisal of clinical practice guidelines and a questionnaire survey of the development groups in Japan.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether the involvement of methodological experts improves the quality of clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) after adjusting for other factors. SETTING: The quality of Japanese CPGs published in 2011-2019 was assessed using the Appraisal of Guidelines, Research, and Evaluation (AGREE) II instrument. A questionnaire survey targeting CPG development groups was conducted through postal mail. PARTICIPANTS: 405 CPGs were retrieved from a Japanese CPG clearinghouse. Questionnaires were distributed to the 405 CPG development groups. Of the 178 respondents, 22 were excluded because of missing values. Finally, 156 participants representing their CPG development groups were included in the analysis. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: CPG quality was assessed using the AGREE II tool. The characteristics of CPGs, including publication year, development organisation, versions, number of members in the development group and involvement of methodological experts, were corrected from the description in the CPGs and the questionnaire survey. We performed multiple logistic regressions using the quality of CPGs as the dependent variable and the involvement of experts as the independent variable, adjusting for other possible factors. RESULTS: A total of 156 CPGs were included. Expert involvement was significantly associated with the AGREE II instrument scores in domains 1 (ß=0.207), 2 (ß=0.370), 3 (ß=0.413), 4 (ß=0.289), 5 (ß=0.375), 6 (ß=0.240) and overall (ß=0.344). CONCLUSION: This study revealed that the involvement of methodological experts in the CPG development process improves the quality of CPGs. The results suggest the importance of establishing a training and certification programme for experts and constructing expert referral systems that meet CPG developers' needs to improve the quality of CPGs.

Development and usability of a hospital standardized ADL ratio (HSAR) for elderly patients with cerebral infarction: a retrospective observational study using administrative claim data from 2012 to 2019 in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Maintenance of activities of daily living (ADL) during acute hospitalization is an important treatment goal, especially for elderly inpatients with diseases that often leave disabilities, such as cerebral infarction. However, studies assessing risk-adjusted ADL changes are limited. In this study, we developed and calculated a hospital standardized ADL ratio (HSAR) using Japanese administrative claims data to measure the quality of hospitalization care for patients with cerebral infarction. METHODS: This study was designed as a retrospective observational study using the Japanese administrative claim data from 2012 to 2019. The data of all hospital admissions with a primary diagnosis of cerebral infarction (ICD-10, I63) were used. The HSAR was defined as the ratio of the observed number of ADL maintenance patients to the expected number of ADL maintenance patients multiplied by 100, and ratio of ADL maintenance patients was risk-adjusted using multivariable logistic regression analyses. The c-statistic was used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the logistic models. Changes in HSARs in each consecutive period were assessed using Spearman's correlation coefficient. RESULTS: A total of 36,401 patients from 22 hospitals were included in this study. All variables used in the analyses were associated with ADL maintenance, and evaluations using the HSAR model showed predictive ability with c-statistics (area under the curve, 0.89; 95% confidence interval, 0.88-0.89). CONCLUSIONS: The findings indicated a need to support hospitals with a low HSAR because hospitals with high/low HSAR were likely to produce the same results in the subsequent periods. HSAR can be used as a new quality indicator of in-hospital care and may contribute to the assessment and improvement of the quality of care.

Social burden of three major diseases in Japan: A time trend and future projections using the comprehensive cost of illness method.

BACKGROUND: Three major diseases in Japan, cancer, heart disease, and cerebrovascular disease (CVD) are the leading causes of death in Japan. This study aimed to clarify the social burden of these diseases, including long-term care (LTC), and to predict future trends. METHODS: The comprehensive cost of illness (C-COI), a modification of the cost of illness (COI), was used to estimate the social burden of the three major diseases in Japan. The C-COI can macroscopically estimate both direct and indirect costs, including the LTC. A new method for future projections of the C-COI was developed according to the method for future projections of the COI. All data sources were government statistics. RESULTS: The C-COI of cancer, heart diseases, and CVD in 2017 amounted to 11.0 trillion JPY, 5.3 trillion JPY, and 6.5 trillion JPY, respectively. The projected future C-COI in 2029 was 10.3 trillion JPY, 5.3 trillion JPY, and 4.4 trillion JPY, respectively. In 2029, the LTC costs accounted for 4.4%, 12.8%, and 44.1% of the total C-COI, respectively. Informal care costs are projected to be approximately 1.7 times higher, assuming that all family caregivers will be replaced by professional caregivers in 2029. CONCLUSION: Indirect costs for all three diseases were projected to decrease owing to aging of the patient. In contrast to the other two diseases, the LTC cost of CVD accounted for a large proportion of the burden. The burden of CVD is expected to decrease in the future, but informal care by older family caregivers is suggested to reach its limits. In the future, the focus of resource allocation should shift from medical care to LTC, especially support for family caregivers. A method of future projections for the social burden based on the C-COI was considered effective for identifying issues for healthcare policy in the context of the times.

Cost of illness in a super-aged society-comparison of breast, lung, and prostate cancer in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Aging increases the disease burden because of an increase in disease prevalence and mortality among older individuals. This could influence the perception of the social burden of different diseases and treatment prioritization within national healthcare services. Cancer is a disease with a high disease burden in Japan; however, the age-specific frequency and age-specific mortality rates differ according to site. In this study, we evaluated the relationship between the aging of the Japanese society and the disease burden by comparing the features of three cancers with different age-specific frequency rates in Japan. Furthermore, we made projections for the future to determine how the social burden of these cancers will change. METHODS: We calculated the social burden of breast, lung, and prostate cancers by adding the direct, morbidity, and mortality costs. Estimates were made using the cost of illness (COI) method. For future projections, approximate curves were fitted for mortality rate, number of hospital admissions per population, number of outpatient visits per population, and average length of hospital stay according to sex and age. RESULTS: The COI of breast, lung, and prostate cancers in 2017 was 903.7, 1,547.6, and 390.8 billion yen, respectively. Although the COI of breast and prostate cancers was projected to increase, that of lung cancer COI was expected to decrease. In 2017, the average age at death was 68.8, 76.8, and 80.7 years for breast, lung, and prostate cancers, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with breast cancer die earlier than those with other types of cancer. The COI of breast cancer ("young cancer") was projected to increase slightly because of an increase in mortality costs, whereas that of prostate cancer ("aged cancer") was projected to increase because of an increase in direct costs. The COI of lung cancer ("aging cancer") was expected to decrease in 2020, despite the increase in deaths, as the impact of the decrease in human capital value outweighed that of the increase in deaths. Our findings will help prioritize future policymaking, such as cancer control research grants.

Evaluating the Hospital Standardized Home-Transition Ratios for Cerebral Infarction in Japan: A Retrospective Observational Study from 2016 through 2020.

Discharge to home is considered appropriate as a treatment goal for diseases that often leave disabilities such as cerebral infarction. Previous studies showed differences in risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality and readmission rates; however, studies assessing the rate of hospital-to-home transition are limited. We developed and calculated the hospital standardized home-transition ratio (HSHR) using Japanese administrative claims data from 2016-2020 to measure the quality of in-hospital care for cerebral infarction. Overall, 24,529 inpatients at 35 hospitals were included. All variables used in the analyses were associated with transition to another hospital or facility for inpatients, and evaluation of the HSHR model showed good predictive ability with c-statistics (area under curve, 0.73 standard deviation; 95% confidence interval, 0.72-0.73). All HSHRs of each consecutive year were significantly correlated. HSHRs for cerebral infarction can be calculated using Japanese administrative claims data. It was found that there is a need for support for low HSHR hospitals because hospitals with high/low HSHR were likely to produce the same results in the following year. HSHRs can be used as a new quality indicator of in-hospital care and may contribute to assessing and improving the quality of care.

Hospital-level characteristics of the standardised mortality ratio for ischemic heart disease: a retrospective observational study using Japanese administrative claim data from 2012 to 2019.

Background: Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is one of the leading causes of mortality worldwide and imposes a heavy burden on patients. Previous studies have indicated that the optimal care for IHD during hospitalisation may reduce the risk of in-hospital mortality. The standardised mortality ratio (SMR) is an indicator for assessing the risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality ratio based on case-mix. This indicator can crucially identify hospitals that can be changed to improve patient safety and the quality of care. This study aimed to determine the hospital-level characteristics of the SMR for IHD in Japan. Methods: This study was designed as a retrospective observational study using the Japanese administrative claim data from 2012 to 2019. The data of all hospital admissions with a primary diagnosis of IHD (ICD-10, I20-I25) were used. Patients with complete variables data were included in this study. Hospitals with less than 200 IHD inpatients in each 2-year period were excluded. The SMR was defined as the ratio of the observed number of in-hospital deaths to the expected number of in-hospital deaths multiplied by 100.The observed number of in-hospital deaths was the sum of the actual number of in-hospital deaths at that hospital, and the expected number of in-hospital deaths was the sum of the probabilities of in-hospital deaths. Ratios of in-hospital mortality was risk-adjusted using multivariable logistic regression analyses. The c-statistic and Hosmer-Lemeshow test were used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the logistic models. Changes in SMRs in each consecutive period were assessed using Spearman's correlation coefficient. Results: A total of 64,831 were admitted patients with IHD in 27 hospitals as complete submission data. The SMRs showed wide variation among hospitals, ranging from 35.4 to 197.6, and analysis models indicated good predictive ability with a c-statistic of 0.93 (95% CI [0.92-0.94]) and Hosmer-Lemeshow test of 0.30. The results of chi-square tests and t-tests for all variables to assess the association with in-hospital mortality were P < 0.001. In the analysis of trends in each consecutive period, the SMRs showed positive correlations. Conclusions: This study denoted that the SMRs for IHD could be calculated using Japanese administrative claim data. The SMR for IHD might contribute to the development of more appropriate benchmarking systems for hospitals to improve quality of care.

Trends in the development process of clinical practice guidelines: a questionnaire survey for the guideline development groups in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) are representative methods for promoting healthcare standardization and improving its quality. Previous studies on the CPG (published by 2006) development process in Japan reported that the involvement of experts and patients, efficient evidence collection and appraisal, and paucity of evidence on Japanese patients should be improved for the efficient CPG development. This study aimed to clarify the trends of CPG development process in Japan, focusing on the involvement of experts and patients, efficient evidence collection and appraisal, and paucity of Japanese evidence. METHODS: A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted for CPG development groups to collect information on the development activities of the CPGs published from 2012 to 2019. These CPGs were identified from the Japanese guideline clearinghouse. The questionnaire included the questions on composing the group, securing funding sources, collecting and appraising the research evidence, and the difficulties in the CPG development process. The questionnaires were distributed to the chairpersons of the CPG development groups through postal mail from November 2020 to January 2021. Combining the data from the current survey with those of previous studies reporting the development process of CPGs published by 2011, we analyzed the trend in the CPG development process. RESULTS: Of the total 265 CPGs included in the analysis, 164 (response rate: 41.4%) were from the current survey and 101 (response rate: 44.5%) were from previous studies. Among these, 40 (15.1%) were published by 2005, 47 (17.7%) in 2006-2010, 77 (29.1%) in 2011-2015, and 101 (38.1%) in 2016-2019. The proportion of CPGs involving methodologists did not increase through the publication periods. The proportion of CPGs involving patients almost doubled from the first period (15.9%) to the fourth period (32.4%). The yield rates of the articles did not change through the publication periods. The difficulty in "Coping with the paucity of Japanese evidence" has been improving consistently (69.2% in the first period to 37.4% in the fourth period). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest the need for methodological improvement in the efficient collection and appraisal of evidence and in the system assigning experts to the CPG development groups.

Characteristics and Trends of the Hospital Standardized Readmission Ratios for Pneumonia: A Retrospective Observational Study Using Japanese Administrative Claims Data from 2010 to 2018.

Previous studies indicated that optimal care for pneumonia during hospitalization might reduce the risk of in-hospital mortality and subsequent readmission. This study was a retrospective observational study using Japanese administrative claims data from April 2010 to March 2019. We analyzed data from 167,120 inpatients with pneumonia ≥15 years old in the benchmarking project managed by All Japan Hospital Association. Hospital-level risk-adjusted ratios of 30-day readmission for pneumonia were calculated using multivariable logistic regression analyses. The Spearman's correlation coefficient was used to assess the correlation in each consecutive period. In the analysis using complete 9-year data including 54,756 inpatients, the hospital standardized readmission ratios (HSRRs) showed wide variation among hospitals and improvement trend (r = -0.18, p = 0.03). In the analyses of trends in each consecutive period, the HSRRS were positively correlated between '2010-2012' and '2013-2015' (r = 0.255, p = 0.010), and '2013-2015' and '2016-2018' (r = 0.603, p < 0.001). This study denoted the HSRRs for pneumonia could be calculated using Japanese administrative claims data. The HSRRs significantly varied among hospitals with comparable case-mix, and could relatively evaluate the quality of preventing readmission including long-term trends. The HSRRs can be used as yet another measure to help improve quality of care over time if other indicators are examined in parallel.

An Isolable and Bench-Stable Epoxidizing Reagent Based on Triazine: Triazox.

A new triazine-based oxidizing reagent, 2-hydroperoxy-4,6-diphenyl-1,3,5-triazine (Triazox), has been developed. The reagent can be synthesized from inexpensive starting materials and is a bench-stable solid that is isolable in pure form. Epoxidation of alkenes possessing acid-sensitive functionalities using Triazox proceeded in good to excellent yields. The accompanying nonacidic triazinone coproduct can be easily removed by filtration. These features indicate that Triazox is a practically useful oxidizing reagent.